Next up in my segment of Controlled Expectations is the player I’m most excited about for this upcoming season.
Desjardins’ NHLe: 16-22-38
Lowetide RE: 12-18-30
THN: 13-19-32
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At 6’1” and nearing 200lbs, Magnus Paajarvi-(Svensson?) is the most physically mature of the impact rookies vying for a spot on this year’s Edmonton Oilers roster. His combination of size and speed make him a very attractive package. Indeed, he was one of the fastest skaters in the 2009 draft class and if not for the “Fall for Hall” this year, we’d be looking at him as the de-facto #1 prospect in the organization.
Fast forward one calendar year, and I’m not exactly forecasting a sunny-day rookie season for Magnum P.I. Unfortunately, I’m of the belief he gets the shaft this year when the line combinations are drawn up, and this will have serious negative impact on his point totals.
In order to gain perspective on my position, let’s list the available wingers for this year’s Edmonton Oilers, sorted by position as per THN’s fantasy guide:
LW: Penner, Hall, Paajarvi, Omark, Jacques, Jones, Giroux
RW: Hemsky, Eberle, Stortini
Now, this isn’t exactly how the wingers are being portrayed in the magazine of record. THN somehow missed the fact that they’ve listed Paajarvi as a LW and #3 on their Oilers Top-10 prospects list located immediately beside their proposed depth chart, preferring to slot him as the #3 RW. But let’s pretend we didn’t see that, shall we? Shoddy research is sometimes a hallmark of deadlines, so we’ll forgive them their folly. The reality I want to point out still shines clear. There’s a crazy log-jam of talent at the LW position on this hockey club, and Paajarvi’s the third-best available talent within that dogpile. What’s unfortunate here is that means he’s likely going to be this year’s Andrew Cogliano. Talent level way above the garbage you have to drag around, and looking for all the world like Edmonton’s next scapegoat. It really is a shame.
This is the main reason why I’ve previously stated that Paajarvi would be best served playing his 19-year old year in Sweden, but I don’t want to rehash old literature (http://bubbling-under.blogspot.com/2010/07/forward-depth-charts-and-what-to-do.html). He might be ready for the NHL, but we don’t have a place for him to play comfortably, IMO. If he’s not playing with similar offensive talents, I believe we’re not utilizing him to his potential. I wasn’t a fan of sticking Hemsky on the 4th line when he began his career, and I won’t be changing my mind about this type of development anytime soon. Development of Top-6 talent should be the purview of minor-pro teams until they’re ready to assume Top-6 roles on the NHL team. Now, with that said, I fully understand that injuries happen and the likelihood of Paajarvi playing Top-6 minutes in the NHL this year is remarkably high due to the voodoo up in the rafters of Rexall (seriously, how else do you explain the freakishly large number of man games lost to injury the past three seasons?), but should we realistically be burning a year of his entry-level contract to sell tickets this year? Hell no. That’s what Hall’s for. We have heard all along from Tambellini that we don’t want to rush our prospects. For examples of this logic, see the extensive list of interviews we’ve had on the subject of Eberle, Jordan. Stick to the 5-year plan guys.
Getting back on topic, we’re here talking about what kind of things we should realistically expect from Magnus Paajarvi for this coming season. I’ll assume (grudgingly) that Paajarvi makes the team out of TC and remains on the roster for the season’s duration.
Like the post regarding Hall, both linemates and special-teams ice-time will play a major role in determining Paajarvi’s final point totals for the season. As stated earlier, Paajarvi would figure to line up as the #3 LW this year. Depending on how Renney decides to run his bench, this means he’ll either be part of a checking line, centered by Horcoff, or a second soft-minute line likely centered by Brule or Cogliano. His RW is completely up in the air at this point, but suffice to say if he’s playing with Stortini for any length of time, he’s not going to be putting up big numbers.
The second factor, his involvement in special teams could be where Paajarvi makes hay this year. Given the options placed at Renney’s feet, Paajarvi seems to be a prime candidate for both PP and PK duties this year. His speed coming off the wing would figure to be an asset on the powerplay in gaining the zone, and while his scouting reports don’t leave me exactly enamoured with his offensive abilities, I think he could do a better job than what we were putting out there last year on the second unit (have Nilsson or O’Sullivan even found NHL employment yet?). His size could also be effective in front of the net on the second PP unit as well, though I haven’t seen anything to suggest that’s where he’s played on the PP before. Penalty-kill would seem to marry well with Paajarvi’s unique talents. He’s got the speed to cover the point. A documented background as a defenseman would also serve his defensive awareness and positioning well. He’s also long enough that his stick would easily get into most shooting lanes.
So what exactly should we expect from Paajarvi this season, especially if he’s not going to be part of a scoring line? That’s where I really start to get curious about what this youngster can bring to our team. He’s shown to be incredibly capable of playing a man’s game, as evidenced by playing in the SEL (a very tough Euro league) since he was freaking 15, and his recent performance for his national team at the World Hockey Championships where he was named to the All-Star team. Whereas Hall and Eberle are coming in as fresh-faced kids, I think we’ll see Paajarvi come in and perform like a veteran by comparison. I expect we’ll see a much more complete game from the smooth skating Swede, and he won’t be shying away from any of the dangerous areas in NHL rinks. He’s more physically mature than Eberle and Hall and though I believe he might have some initial trouble adjusting to the more physical style of mens hockey in North America, it’ll all be sorted out before the season ends.
However, due to his position on the depth chart, I think expectations should be curtailed to avoid disappointment. This year, I’d like to see Paajarvi:
-Prove he belongs in the NHL as a 19-year old (no “loans” to Sweden’s WJC team)
-Firmly establish himself on the #2PP unit and an option for the PK
-Play in 65 games, scoring 10-15-25 with a +/- in the ballpark of -5
Pushing for time in the Top-6 this year will be considered a real accomplishment for the budding star winger.
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