Organizational depth chart - Pre-draft edition

Before the NHL draft gets underway tomorrow, I thought It’d be a fun exercise to list the Oilers’ prospects depth charts to try and find areas that need the most help. Addressing the Best Player Available format is all fine and dandy in a perfect world but communism was marketed that way too, and look what it’s done for Russian hockey talent. In reality, the Oilers are only going to be drafting BPA with their first pick, and will then look at addressing organizational needs that stock their cupboards accordingly. Using my definition of a prospect from an earlier post (http://bubbling-under.blogspot.com/2010/06/graduation.html), I’ve generated an organizational prospect depth chart that details our pre-draft areas of strength and need. Note: I didn’t include this year’s college signings such as Blair Riley because I’m unsure if they are Oilers property or Springfield’s guys. If someone could find a source that confirms them as Oilers, I’d appreciate it.

Center
Riley Nash, Anton Lander, Chris VandeVelde, Milan Kytnar, Robby Dee

This is an area of weakness for the Oilers organization. While Nash and Lander may top out as number 2 centers if the stars align, we’re looking at three number 3-4 centers (VandeVelde included here) and two center prospects that, if they make the NHL will be considered unlikely successes. The top three men on this list all possess a wide array of talents but are masters of none, especially high-end offense. The system lacks a true number 1 center prospect and has for a while (recently graduated Sam Gagner looks more like an elite number 2 than a 1st liner). There’s a prospect of such ilk at the top of some draft boards, but I don’t think he’ll be wearing the Copper and Blue.

Center should be a position where our scouting staff addresses with a few picks this year. I’d like to see our second rounders used to try and address the center depth chart. It’s unlikely we’ll get that first-line calibre center, but depth here is sorely needed.

Wing
Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, Jordan Eberle, Linus Omark, Teemu Hartikainen, Toni Rajala, Philippe Cornet, Cameron Abney, Alex Bumagin, William Quist

The strength of the prospect pipeline comes down the wings. There are both high-end offensive talents and grinder-types present in effective numbers for years to come. MPS and Eberle are both top-flight talents with Omark not far off that level. Paajarvi’s speed is a serious weapon coming down the wing, having the ability to back defenders off him and opening up space for his linemates. Eberle is one of the shiftiest players I’ve seen once he gets into the offensive zone. He really blends into the background and is forgotten until the puck gets to his stick, usually in a dangerous scoring area. Omark’s puck-skills are off the charts and has been able to put up consistent scoring numbers playing against men in two different and high-quality Euro leagues despite his small stature. All three have legitimate shots at being top-6 wingers for the Oilers in the near future. Toni Rajala is coming off a productive season where he held down a top-6 winger role for a very talented Brandon Wheat Kings team the entire season while adjusting to the North American style of hockey.

The list of foot soldiers is a promising one too. Led by Hartikainen who has an outside chance at seeing top-6 duty, the bottom-6 wingers feature players willing to get their hands dirty. Hartikainen has had great success in the Finnish SM-Liiga, which is known for being the closest thing to North American hockey stylistically. He’s a big body with adequate skating and is willing to work hard to embrace the defensive side of hockey. Philippe Cornet was a big scorer in junior hockey, but is unlikely to be filling that role at the next level. He’ll have to look up to current Oiler farmhand Liam Reddox for inspiration if he is to make the NHL someday. Cornet possesses that grit and sandpaper that is necessary for 3-4 line players to be effective, but his small stature might be a hindrance. Tough guy Cameron Abney is not a favourite of mine, but I can’t downplay his pugilistic prowess. There’s no doubt that if he makes the NHL it won’t be for his offensive instincts. Like Zach Stortini before him, he’ll need to become a better-rounded player if he’s to be seen as anything more than the token tough guy.

The prospect pool also includes Alex Bumagin and William Quist, but my mom always taught me that if I didn’t have anything nice to say, to shut my gob. Nuff Said.

This is a position of strength for the organization moving forward and it’s only going to get stronger with our first overall selection this year. The addition of Hall (it’s not 100% sure yet, but I’ll be surprised if Seguin’s selected) provides the club with two top-line Left Wing prospects. It’s an interesting place to have such talent but I’m not about to look a gift horse in the mouth. Unless the scouting staff is very high on another winger or a highly ranked prospect finds himself sliding down the draft board I doubt that another winger will be selected this year.

Defense
Jeff Petry, Alex Plante, Taylor Chorney, Johan Motin, Troy Hesketh, Kyle Bigos, Jordan Bendfeld

The defensive pipeline at this point is filled with more potential than product, and I’m not sure there’s a lot of promising talent here. If we blue-sky for a moment, Petry, Plante and Chorney could all become Top-4 defenders one day, but they all still have a long way to go to reach that potential.

Realistically, there are a lot of 3rd pairing defenders here as everyone not named Petry has a significant hole in their game. It’s like the characters from the Wizard of Oz here. Plante has no skating, Chorney has no size, Motin has no offense, Hesketh has no able-body, Bigos has no brain, Bendfeld has no chance. The fortunate thing though is that most of our blueline prospects are still young, there’s room and time to improve their game.

Petry remains the prospect most likely to fill a Top-4 role with the big club. His combination of size, aggressive play and offensive instincts make him an ideal defender for the new NHL. He starts his professional career this year after a less-than-memorable amateur tryout last year. I’m hoping that he’s got more room to grow and improve than his Taylor Chorney-like +/- indicated.

This is an area that the Oilers need to improve. Maybe not as much as their center pipeline, but the club is lacking in Top-4 prospects. I’m hopeful that current Oilers Ryan Whitney, Tom Gilbert and Ladislav Smid will continue to be around and effective Top-4 defenders for a long time. It’ll help keep the pressure off the organizational defence pool until this area can be properly addressed.

Goal
Olivier Roy, Andrew Perugini, Bryan Pitton

Goaltending is a difficult area to predict, and it’s often a waste of precious draft selections to pick a goalie. We’re seeing that demonstrated by the Oilers in the last few years. There have been few selections used on goaltenders, and the results are a very thin prospect depth chart between the pipes.

Olivier Roy is the best of the bunch and still has one year of junior hockey eligibility remaining. He was recently traded a couple of times, eventually settling with the Acadie-Bathurst Titan where he will likely resume his duties as starting goaltender. He’s been a starter in the QMJHL since he was 16 and has seen a lot of puck over his career. After a slow start to the recently completed season his numbers began to steadily improve. He’s a goalie that’s been on the radar of Hockey Canada for ages now and has a good chance at making the U-20 squad this year unless his development takes a big leap backwards. He’s a small but highly agile goaltender with solid angles and reflexes. It’s very hard to project goalies a few years down the road, but he’s never seemed like the type who will be an NHL starter unless he takes the journeyman road and eventually lands on his feet somewhere.

The rest of the depth chart leaves prospect junkies wanting. There is no tender in the system that is anywhere close to pushing Roy for the number one spot. Perugini and Pitton have both struggled at the AHL level and while Pitton was able to get a few call-ups to the big club this year, it was merely to serve as Deslauriers’ back-up while Devan Dubnyk was getting some playing time in down on the farm to keep him fresh. Both Perugini and Pitton are long-shots to ever see NHL playing time, barring injuries from goalies higher up the Oilers’ ladder.

Goaltending is an area of weakness for the Oilers organization, but unless Jack Campbell falls to the second round (highly unlikely, he’s the best goalie to come around since Carey Price) there’s no reason to be spending a draft pick on a goalie this year in my opinion. The best bet is to follow in Brian Burke’s footsteps and address the goaltending depth chart by signing undrafted free agents from Europe or the US college ranks.

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Taking the above information into account, I think Stu MacGregor and his staff would do well to load up on centers and defensemen this year. With the likely selection of Taylor Hall with the first overall pick, it’s unlikely we’ll get our top-ranked center prospect this year. There is however a chance at obtaining a couple of Top-4 calibre defensive prospects with our two second-round selections if the scouts are high on certain players. I’ve previously identified a some centers and defensemen of interest for our second pick (#31 overall), and believe that either Charlie Coyle or Alex Petrovic should be targeted at that point. After that, all bets are off.

With any luck, the organizational prospect depth chart will look a lot different and well-rounded when I look to analyze this again in about a month’s time. Come Saturday night we’ll know where the organization is headed and barring trades, I’ll have 9 new young men to talk about in the coming months.

Prospects of Interest (2nd round): Alex Petrovic

Today’s prospect, shown here (#77) being filled in by Dylan McIlrath, is a hard-hitting defenseman from the Dub who has seen his stock drop considerably from where he was one season ago.

Alex Petrovic, an Edmonton native playing for Red Deer is a 6’4” body breaking machine with underrated offensive skills. He’s still among the most feared defenders in the WHL even though he had his clock cleaned by fellow 2010 draft-eligible prospect Dylan McIlrath at this year’s Top Prospects game. Some questioned his abilities after that quick bout, but as THN magazine puts it:

“Some scouts point to the fact Petrovic was beaten in a fight by Dylan McIlrath in the prospects game as the negative turning point. It shouldn’t have been, because McIlrath beats up pretty much everyone he fights.”

Here’s the youtube clip of the fight. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nmo1jlN4VHg

I think it’s important to present this because even though Petrovic gets rag-dolled around, it shows the kid’s got balls. He wanted to test himself against the best on what is probably one of the biggest prospect showcases. Full credit to him.

The Rankings:
THN: 24
ISS: Not Rated
CSB: 29

Known more as a defence-first blueliner, Petrovic saw his point totals more than double this season (from 13 to 27) and his goal totals sky-rocket from one last year to eight this season, all while playing in nine fewer games. His offensive output brings to mind the scouting report of Alex Plante from 2007, which said in no specific words that this offense wouldn’t likely translate well to the NHL game. It’s fair then to expect any offense from Petrovic at the NHL level to be a welcome bonus to his skillset.

Already standing 6’4” and weighing in at 193 pounds, Petrovic will be an intimidating force on someone’s blueline once he completely fills out. Gaining another 15-20 pounds on his large frame would allow for even more damage from his already physical brand of hockey. He’s not just hitting people because he’s bigger and can do some damage, he’s hitting people because he likes it. An interview from McKeen’s hockey (http://mckeenshockey.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1078205) suggests we might have a new Scott Stevens on our hands here:

“My strength I believe, is my physical play with my body checks”

He also believes the things he can do with his long reach is a strength to his game, both in breaking up scoring chances and creating a good first pass out of his defensive zone. The coaching staff in Red Deer has had him working on his defensive game, and Alex seems to have bought into the system well. He’s taking care of his own end first but would also like to develop a quick offensive transition to his game, being able to quickly join the rush after a turnover.

Mike Remmerde, a well known and respected blogger/reporter has a slightly more glass-half-empty view on Petrovic. He lists his skating as a positive for a kid his size, but is quick to point out defensive lapses in the defensive zone:

“This guy’s reactions in the defensive zone just flat out confuse me. I just can’t understand how a guy with this kind of agility gets beat so often in his own end.”

I’m not too worried about these reported defensive liabilities because with proper coaching they can be eliminated. Let the kid make mistakes now and learn from them, it’s better to have these weaknesses exposed early on so they can be monitored and corrected at the junior level.

The Oilers organization has been high on these big, physical players at the last couple of drafts. They’ve taken hard-nosed defenders early in the past in Peckham (2006), Plante (2007), Motin (2008) and the forward Abney (2009) with some success. The blueline pipeline is thin as it stands right now with, to my knowledge, not a single junior aged defenseman in the system. It’s sure to be a lean couple of years without some changes in draft tendencies this year.

Petrovic fits the Oilers needs of defenders and improving team toughness, and that’s why I can see him being selected with the 31st pick. While there may be a couple higher ranked forwards left on the draft board, Petrovic could be a target for an early second-round selection based on organizational need. I may not agree with picking for position, but Petrovic is someone I’d consider making an exception for. Early projections and mock-drafts had him pegged as a sure first-rounder, Petrovic remains a potential Top-4 shutdown defender.

Prospects of interest (2nd Round): Jason Zucker

Today’s prospect has a chance at being the first Las Vegas born/trained player to set foot in the NHL.

Jason Zucker is a 5’11” winger from the US NTDP who is not expected to be a premier scorer at the next level, he’s already made the commitment to defensive hockey while using his excellent skating abilities to be an effective forechecker and penalty-killer. Said one scout interviewed in THN’s draft preview:

“Because of his speed, he gets chances, but can’t do it [score] naturally. I see him as a pently-killer, shutdown guy who might get 10 goals”

The Rankings:
THN: 54
ISS: 30
CSB: 51NA

Zucker has been playing with the US National Team for the past two years with varying degrees of offensive success. His totals last year (22GP 11-7-18) suggest there is some offensive talent there. He seems like more of a shooter than a playmaker. He got that opportunity to be a premier scorer at the most recent U-20 WJC’s, where he was lining up with offensive stalwarts in Jordan Schroeder and Ryan Bourque. His two goals contributed to Team USA’s gold-medal winning performance. Said Zucker when asked how he took to this role (http://mckeenshockey.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1068190):

“I was there to try and help them [Schroeder and Bourque] out and help the team win and I thought I played a really good tournament.”

And “play a good tournament” he surely did, at least to my eyes. Getting to watch the Americans at the most recent tournament, I was very surprised by the play of this un-heralded draft-eligible talent. His speed and constant forecheck was a pain in the Canadians’ side throughout the tournament. It wasn’t the big-name talent that wowed me at the WJCs this year. The play of foot soldiers like Zucker and Jerry D’Amigo set the tone of a new look for the Americans. For the first time in forever, they brought a team to an International tournament, not just a smattering of individuals. But I digress...

Zucker seems to be a player in constant need to improve his game. In an interview with McKeen’s, when asked about areas he can improve upon, he ticks off a list longer than a 7-year old’s Christmas wishlist:

“I think I need to work on quite a bit of things. Everybody can work on things to get better. I think I can work on my shooting, my passing, my skating, offensive zone, defensive coverage. Every bit of my game, I can work on...in order to play at the level, you have to be a complete player”.

While some may look at his self-scouting report and see a flawed player, I tend to look at him with a positive eye. Anyone can say they’d like to get better, but it takes a different kind of person to self-evaluate to the point Jason has. He knows what he needs to go do, and proper coaching can adapt his flaws into an effective player.

Zucker is committed to Denver University, but seems like he might be willing to play major junior if the shoe fits. His rights are owned by Seattle of the Western Hockey League.

Jason Zucker would be a good fit for the Oilers organization because he fits the mold of the role players every successful team seems to have in spades. His scouting reports read like those of a Draper/Maltby type player. Hard forechecker, solid PKer with the ability to provide a little offense if thrust into that role. He’d take maybe a little longer to develop than some of the more high-end prospects, but with a massive influx of talent from the prospect ranks in the near future, the Oilers can afford to be patient with the Nevada native. He doesn’t quite have the talent for me to consider taking him with the 31st overall selection, but he’d be a feather in the scouting department’s cap at #48.

Prospects of interest (2nd Round): Quinton Howden

There’s a good chance today’s prospect may not in fact make it out of the second round. If fortune smiles on the Oilers, here’s hoping Stu MacGregor is sprinting up to the draft podium to open the second day of this year’s NHL draft to draft winger Quinton Howden, the first overall pick from the WHL’s 2007 bantam draft. He’s a big boy at 6’3” 183 and still has room to fill out his impressive frame in two more seasons with the Dub’s Moose Jaw Warriors.

The rankings:
THN: 23
ISS: 16
CSB: 19NA

I’ll be blunt here, I really do have a vested interest in watching this kid develop. He grew up half an hour from me, in the same hometown (and likely through the same bantam programs) as a cousin of mine. I’d love nothing more than to see a local talent putting on the Oildrop in a couple years time. I’ll do my best not to go all Pierre McGuire... but I promise nothing.

Coming off the potentially overbearing pressure that comes with being a high bantam draft pick (Philippe Cornet apparently couldn’t handle it), he struggled in his rookie season with the Warriors, putting up 30 points in 62 games. His transition from year one this year is quite impressive. He more than doubled his goal totals (from 13 to 28) while putting up exactly one point per game (28-37-65). It’s still not a huge offensive number, but he led his team in scoring as a 17-year old (the next four highest scorers were 19 or older). That speaks both to the maturity of the player, and the lack of scoring surrounding Howden. Expect his point totals to continue rising next year, if he’s not playing NHL hockey somewhere.

As a player, he’s been known to wear a lot of hats. While playing for his club team, he’s their go-to scorer. Internationally, he’s more likely to be a foot soldier and energy-type player. A very complete player in all three zones is what you’re going to get out of Howden as a 17-year old. At this point in most careers of NHL prospects, they have the back-checking abilities as Rob Schremp. Given his two-way abilities, it’s hard to imagine he’d have slipped past the Devils if they had retained their first round pick (Thanks, Ilya!).

One thing that may allow him to slip to #31 is his lack of one true talent. He’s a big body, but no scouting report I’ve read suggests he’s anything more than an average skater with moderate hockey sense, and lacks the ability to use his 6’3” frame to clear opponents out of his way. He’s one of the safest bets to make the NHL one day, but in no way is he a special talent at this point.

I think he’d be a perfect fit on the Oilers in a few years. He’s a big body who can score and has at least thought about the defensive side of hockey. He’d be a guy you could slot anywhere in your line-up and have success. If you want a big body to create space for Sam Gagner/Andrew Cogliano, throw him into the top-6 and tell him to go to the net. If you want a checking line with Shawn Horcoff, you know he’s not going to willingly give up goals against. To me, I see a lot of the kinds of things we’re seeing now in Dustin Penner. It’s kind of early to project him to our highest paid winger, but dammit he looks like a player to me. He's got all that talent, with a big body, a good home-grown Canadian kid, monster, strong...muscular...legs....

Sorry. I should stop now.

Prospects of interest (2nd Round): Charlie Coyle

The next installment of Bubbling Under's prospects of interest segment looks at a big versatile forward who has likely spent a few family dinners across the table from former NHLer Tony Amonte.

Charlie Coyle is a 6'2" 202lb right-handed forward committed to Boston University next year.

The rankings:

THN: 33
ISS: 27
CSB: 24NA

Coyle is primarily a center, but some have suggested he'll be more effective as a winger (listed as RW) at higher levels. His ability to muscle smaller players off the puck along the boards is a strength, writes Redline Report's Kyle Woodlief (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2010-06-01-forward-prospects_N.htm). He's a hard-working player who will be responsible in both ends of the ice.

He's a self-described weight room junkie, which was likely the cause of his stellar performances at the recent NHL draft combine, remarks The Terrier Hockey Fan Blog (http://terrierhockey.blogspot.com/2010/06/bourque-named-mvp-as-hershey-repeats.html). The Oilers have a couple of NHLers who themselves are fitness freaks, with varying degrees of on-ice success (think Shawn Horcoff versus Ethan Moreau here), so I'm unsure if this is necessarily a positive for Coyle. He could go to BU and add another 15-20 pounds to his frame, which might make him very tough to handle coming down the wing in about 4 years.

His offensive upside may not be enough to warrant a top-six spot on an NHL team, but like Riley Nash in the 2007 draft he's going to be an NHLer once he leaves school. More of a playmaker type than a scorer, he uses his teammates well and is creative with his puckhandling, writes Woodlief. He's one of the safest bets in this year's draft. Central Scouting compares him to former NHLer Bob Sweeney (639 NHL games; best offensive season 80GP 15-33-48 115PIM). Not exactly a flashy player, but one of those character bottom-6 guys every successful team employs.

Important to note that Edmonton was one of his scheduled interviews during the combine and are among the 23 teams to interview him (http://www.hockeyjournal.com/news/2010/05/25_coylelooking.php). Edmonton appears to either have special interest in the player, or Coyle really has a thing for cup winners. Said Coyle on day two of the combine:

Monday night when we were eating, I saw Kevin Lowe walk in and knew who he was right away. Tuesday, when I went to Edmonton it was kind of special to meet him.

It looks like Coyle is getting a lot of attention from the scouting departments. Whether it's because he's high on everyone's draft boards or that he's an unknown quantity is hard to determine. Going to an unknown Junior A program at South Shore leads me to believe scouts are still trying to get a read on him.

I think he'd be a good fit for the Oilers prospect pool in much the same way Chris VandeVelde was talked about. With our first round selection providing the scoring, we'll still need guys able to play a strong two-way game four or five years down the road. Barring a change of playing style while at BU, we're not looking at a home-run acquisition from Coyle out of the #31 slot. Just a solid NHL prospect with a high percentage of playing in the NHL one day.

Prospects of interest (2nd Round): Teemu Pulkkinen

I've been meaning to really keep up on my prospects. Honest I have. But a weekend ultimate (and drinking) tournament takes a lot out of you. To those who read my blog (I'm sure there's a couple of you out there) and haven't taken a perusal of the other offers from the Oilogosphere, get on it. The boys at C&B have looked at a trio of prospects so far in greater detail than I could, so I'll avoid discussing Martin Marincin (A Slovak defenseman who always draws unfavourable comparisons to Zdeno Chara due only to his hulking size), Tom Kuhnhackl (whose name includes two dots over the u, can you tell I don't know much about him?) and most recently Viktor Svedberg. Over at Lowetide, he's taken control of the Dylan McIlrath booster club with such fervor that Dylan must be friends with LT's son, Marc-Antoine Pouliot. There's some great stuff out there, I'm only scratching the surface.

Continuing my list of potential second-rounders available to the Oilers is a goal-scoring forward who has seen his stock slide considerably since last year.

Teemu Pulkkinen is a 5'11" winger from the Jokerit system in Finland, producer of (in my opinion) the greatest Finnish talent the NHL has ever seen.

The rankings:
THN: 50
ISS: 53
CSB: 17 Euro

His stats aren't much to look at (12GP 1-2-3) and he didn't play in this year's U-20 tournament like fellow draft-eligible Finn Mikael Granlund, but it is important to note that like Granlund (and our two Swede prospects from 2009), he's already playing against men. Stiff competition at 17 years of age (he's a January birthday) makes me want to disregard the low production as a result of not playing often, or possibly with Jani Rita. He's put up points in the past against players his own age. His performance at the most recent U-18s where he was the top forward (6GP 10-5-15), at last year's U-18 tournament (6GP 7-6-13) and the year previous on Jokerit's junior team (32GP 36-24-60) so I find it hard to debate his offensive skill.

There are questions about his commitment to the physical brand of hockey - he's being called a perimeter player who has only average footspeed according to THN's draft preview. Others have not exactly agreed with his lack of speed, as thehockeywriters are absolutely glowing about his speed and agility (http://thehockeywriters.com/prospect-profile-teemu-pulkkinen-jokerit-helsinki-sm-liiga/). The positives seem more plentiful and noteworthy. The phrases "pure sniper" and "one-shot scorer" absolutely litter Pulkkinen's scouting reports. He's seen as a good complimentary player with a lightning-quick release, demonstrated in this youtube clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTr9Ep3goMw&feature=related He's number 92 collecting what some might see as a garbage goal. I see it as him finding a high percentage area of the offensive zone much the same way John Tavares does.

One sore spot (literally) is his injury history. I haven't heard of an underage player who has had such tough luck since the aforementioned Pouliot. He's been limited to just 16 SM-Liiga games the past two years due to foot issues of one kind or another.

The Oilers have had no issues going to Europe in the last couple of years. They've found some great prospects in all areas of the draft. Sweden is represented three times in the last two drafts (Motin, Paajarvi, Lander) and a selection of Pulkkinen would make three Fins in the last three years (Hartikainen, Rajala). Pulkkinen fits the mold of a skill forward that could add offense to a prospect pool that is rather short on game-changing skill level. He was one of THN's top-10 2010 prospects last year and with the limited number of games he's played so far seems to me to have a higher ceiling than most prospects.

Prospects of interest (2nd round): Jon Merrill

Over the next few weeks leading up to the 2010 NHL entry draft, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at the prospects who could feasibly be available for the Oilers second round picks. The amount of literature available on Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin is staggering and well worth reading, but they represent a miniscule fraction of the talent available in this year’s draft. Our selection at #31 represents a high likelihood of acquiring an NHL-level talent just outside the first round. There are many options available, and due to drafting trends of other teams some may not be available when the Oilers make their second round selection.

We start today with THN’s 31st ranked prospect, Jon Merrill.

2009-10 stats: NTDP 22gp 1-8-9 12PIM (http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=120966)

Other assorted rankings:

ISS – 21
Central Scouting – 21
TSN’s MacKenzie’s list (January) – HM
North American Central Scouting (Sept 2009) - 11

Born Feburary 3, 1992 in the USA, Merill is a 6’3” 198lb left-handed defenseman from the American NTDP known for his smooth skating abilities with good passing ability. He comes from a team deep in large puck-movers (Stephen Johns, Justin Faulk, Jarred Tinordi), but is seen as having the highest ceiling of all of them aside from the higher ranked Derek Forbort. Says a scout from THN’s draft preview:

"He potentially has a good upside with his skill level...He’s a big defenseman who moves the puck well, kind of that Gormley, Forbort kind of player”.

Merrill was bumped up from the U-17 team to the U-18 team last season for 19 games, and commented that it really helped his development as a top prospect. In an interview with McKeens (http://mckeenshockey.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1076474):

“It was a great experience. I was really honoured to be able to play up last year...The experience was unbelievable and I think it helped a lot. We had a bunch, like five of our guys from my age group were up on that team last year, so we’re hoping to bring that experience we had last year back to the team this year."

Already committed to the University of Michigan for next season since he was fourteen (the youngest to ever commit to an NCAA program), he has no doubts where he’s going to be playing next year.

“I think for me, it’s better to go to school, and that’s just what I’ve always wanted to do. I’m 100 percent committed there”.

Merrill ran into some trouble this year when he was suspended from the team for violating team policy (http://thepipelineshow.blogspot.com/2010/01/3-suspended-1-quits-us-under-18-team.html). His indiscretions seem to be of little concern however, as the backlash from the suspension has been all but forgotten.

When asked about his strengths and weaknesses, Merrill commented that his strength has improved a lot over the last two seasons, and that video sessions with his coaches have helped improve his positional play. He also said that he’s working on improving his offensive game, most notably his shot.

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I think Merrill would be a solid pick-up for the Oilers prospect system. His game tailors well to the new style of NHL defender. He’s got a lot of similarities to current Oiler Tom Gilbert and you can’t have enough big, smooth skating defensemen in the system.

There is doubt he’ll be available when the 31st overall pick comes up. The Oilers may have to trade up into the mid-20s if they believe he is a player of interest.

Tyler who?

I’ve been going through a lot of prospect literature over the last two weeks. Through the internet and print magazines like The Hockey News there’s enough to distract me to ridiculous levels. I took a break one day from reading about the next first rounders and decided to take a look at who were the steals of last year’s (2009) entry draft. The Oilers got absolute gems in Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, Anton Lander, Toni Rajala and Olivier Roy, three of whom it could be considered they were real value picks because of where we obtained them in the draft.

MPS – 10th overall. THN rank: 7
Lander – 40th overall. THN rank: 50
Rajala – 101st overall. THN rank: 49
Roy – 133rd overall. THN rank: 38

Now, THN isn’t the be all and end all list of ranking prospects but I think it’s safe to say these four are far from the reach picks some Oiler fans are accustomed to. The results are promising too, with MPS and Rajala already signed to entry-level contracts, Lander doing nothing to diminish his billing as a strong defensive forward and team leader, and Roy regaining his form after a hard first month of the season.

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Reading farther into THN’s 2009 draft preview brought me again to their future watch on the top prospects for the 2010 draft. To me, an important measuring stick for prospects is their ability to maintain billing as top prospects over multiple years. To be perfectly frank I stay as far away from fast-rising prospects as I can, preferring to view their “big season” without rose-coloured glasses. I’ve never been a believer that one stand-out season means that continued positive growth is expected. There are too many other factors that could be at play over the course of a single season to say with any confidence that player X will continue to develop exponentially. I much prefer a prospect who has achieved over multiple seasons, leaving less doubt in analyzing their abilities.

And so, going back to the 2009 draft preview’s analysis of the 2010 class, we’re given the following Top-10 players to watch out for (2010 draft ranking in brackets):

1(1): Taylor Hall – A complete player who understands the game
2(38): Kirill Kabanov – Classic Russian winger, very good technically
3(7): Brandon Gormley – Knows what his options are when the puck is on his stick
4(14): Vladimir Tarasenko – A dynamic player, explodes around the puck
5(3): Cam Fowler – Excellent skater, pivots well
6(5): Erik Gudbranson – A special player, great mobility
7(10): Mikael Granlund – Doesn’t need a lot of space to make plays
8(20): John McFarland – A character guy, will do anything to win
9(50): Teemu Pulkkinen – Plays physical and moves well in open ice
10(40): Tyler Toffoli – Skill and confidance, he’s not afraid

Notice a player missing? I certainly did.

At this point last year, there was very little known about Tyler Seguin, the dynamic and complete centerman from Plymouth. Someone who is now described as “the best playmaker in the draft” wasn’t even on the radar last year.

Everyone’s welcome to their opinions, but I found this a little disturbing. I knew he had come on very strong this year to challenge for the top spot, but from outside last year’s Top-10? That’s very concerning, IMO, because it means he falls victim to that fast-riser stigma I described earlier. Will his game continue to grow after this season? Is this season his perfect storm? How much of his growth this year was increased playing time and sheer luck? Is he playing Rob Schremp kind of minutes?

We can’t say these things about Taylor Hall’s game. He’s been a known commodity for years now. He hasn’t exactly increased his point totals year in and year out but we know he’s consistently putting up numbers with a very good team. This tells me a couple things; he’s establishing his level of play and he’s not getting 30 minutes of ice-time per game (to me, a very real concern about Tyler Seguin’s Plymouth Whaler days).

Like I said, your opinion will likely vary from mine, but I’d be staying away from the Tyler Seguins (and Brett Connollys) of this year’s draft. Give me consistency over big splashes when it comes to my prospects.

Graduation

I graduated today.

Five years of pain and torture can do amazing things to a man. It makes you angry, depressed, elated, shocked, and at times, contemplate career changes. It also causes you to drink large quantities of alcohol. But then again, so has watching the Edmonton Oilers these past five years.

I arrived at University, drafted you could call it, straight out of high school. I was a boy of 18 who thought he knew exactly what he wanted from life and how to achieve it. It took about two hours that first day of classes that I realized I was in over my head if I thought this was going to be a cake walk. My first course that day, Introduction to University 1, told me to immediately expect a 10% drop in my average from my high school honour roll list marks. I was told it would be expected of me to study for two hours for every hour I attended lectures. I was also told that every instructor marks differently from everyone else just to keep us on our toes.

Shit.

I emerged from my first class visibly shaken. This wasn’t going to be as easy as I thought it would. And my first two years proved that very well. I was stuck taking “required” courses that prepared me for nothing by instructors who had long ago lost their passion for teaching. I was stuck going nowhere with very little direction at the time and at a couple points had to sit down and re-evaluate my being at University.

Then, as if someone in the department had understood they were about to lose another talented mind, opportunity presented itself. Maybe I wasn’t going to be that first-line student who could get everything done perfectly and come up with new and exciting research ideas all on my own. But to be behind the scenes doing yeoman’s work for a while to get my bearings and learn my trade hands-on from seasoned professionals? Well that’s right up my alley. So instead of being able to make that seamless transition to the big-time as a 20-year old, I was able to ply my trades as a Co-op student, learning alongside grizzled veterans who knew their time was winding to an end, but could still contribute to the next generation of lab techs and energy-type employees. By working for a couple semesters instead of being thrown into the deep end in classes, I was able to develop at my own pace.

When I got back to University for the fall term after 8 months away from school and entering my 4th year of development I was a better student having learned what I would need to succeed at this level. I took the lessons of time management and proper presentation of scientific date and applied them to my coursework. The results began to show that I had learned something. My grades started improving, confidence skyrocketed, and my hard work started paying off. Finally I was the one the instructors were praising for my hard work and effort. It took me five years from 18 years of age to achieve what I set out to accomplish. I have graduated from the prospect ranks of my career.

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Graduation of prospects is sometimes a hotly contested debate between the sporting community. At what point can we start to address errors in a player’s game as a pre-existing condition and not growing pains? Many have tried to find the perfect formula for measuring a player’s graduation from prospect to NHL player, and many have failed. It is likely that I will fail to win over many readers with my criteria to define a prospect from a player as well, but that’s for you to decide. I have my opinions about who should be considered a prospect, and I’ll defend them.

The most widely accepted notion that defines a prospect is that he remains a prospect until he’s played a certain amount of games in the NHL. Hockeysfuture, a widely read site uses the 75-game plateau to define prospect status. Lowetide, who writes some of the best Oilers-related articles anywhere uses 50 games before you graduate as a prospect (on most occasions). It’s a start, but I feel that a prospect at the age of 18’s first season or so should not be weighted as equally as a 22-year old prospect who has played approximately 100 games of minor-pro hockey, either at the AHL level or over in the many European elite leagues. As some would suggest, the sample size of the 18-year old is too small to make an adequate assessment of his abilities, and I agree with that.

The boys over at Copper and Blue have recently come up with some new prospect criteria that I find to be more reliable than the “play this many games and you’re no longer a prospect” mentality. Instead of ranking “prospects” they decided to rank the most important players in the organization under the age of 25. A pretty good idea, but still leaves too much leeway for me. I don’t consider a player like Liam Reddox to be a prospect, mainly because I think we’ve got a good idea on what kind of NHL player he is. Meaning he is no longer a prospect, but in fact a marginal NHL player.

So, after shooting holes in everyone else’s theories, maybe I should come up with one of my own? Sure. I’ve toyed around with two ideas, and have settled on this.

A young hockey player shall be deemed a prospect until the completion of his entry-level contract. After such time, he will no longer be considered a prospect of the organization, and will graduate.

I’ve come to this conclusion for a couple of reasons. I feel that we the fans should have a clear picture of what a player can and cannot do after (in the majority) a player’s three-year entry level contract is complete. Such contracts are usually signed when a player reaches 20 years of age, two years after his draft. By this time, the organization will have had its hands on a player for five years. There are rare occasions when a player blossoms later than his entry-level contract, but for the most part we have a good idea on what kind of NHL player they will become.

I cite the case of Andrew Cogliano as proof that a prospect needs the full five years of “prospect” status. After his first season, Cogliano had 18 goals playing soft opposition with the best prospects in the Oilers system. Things were looking up, and many were touting him as a top-six forward for the next decade. Fast-forward two years later and he’s hit a wall. Were his first-year numbers the start of an upward curve? No. They were brought back to earth over the next two seasons and show us what Cogliano can be for an NHL team. A second to third line player who will contribute anywhere from 10 to 20 goals per season. Nothing special, but a proven talent after the completion of his entry-level contract.

Now there are some cases where a prospect doesn’t turn pro at 20. We’re going to see two examples of that this off-season. By my prospect grading system Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin will graduate at the age of 21 instead of 23, and players like Chris VandeVelde and Linus Omark will be older than the age of 23 when they are no longer considered prospects. This is okay in my opinion because at the end of their entry-level contracts we will know how they can contribute to an NHL roster. There might still be room to grow for Hall/Seguin as there might still be for Sam Gagner, but let’s delay their prospect status beyond their 19th birthdays to get a good read on them.

It took me five years to become the educated man I am today. If I have my way, our prospects will be the same age and have the same amount of development time until they too are thrown to the wolves.