On Tyler Pitlick and the World Juniors

Word reached us earlier in the week that Tyler Pitlick will not be attending Team USA’s “tryout camp”, and was met with a lot of hand-wringing among Oilerdom. A couple of explainations were put forth, with many of them nicking Pitlick because he spurned NCAA hockey in favour of the CHL this past offseason. The hole in this theory rests with Jack Campbell’s selection to the team. Gone are the days where the American team was as close-minded as the Ruskies, they’re pulling the best talent from wherever they can find it.

While it’s hard to take initially, there are a lot of factors at play here that may benefit Pitlick and Team USA in the long run.

Pitlick is off to a decent start with Medicine Hat, but results have been a tad underwhelming. We had been led to believe that young Pitlick would immediately get to work dominating WHL competition. A slow October gave way to a better November yet he was passed over by a couple of curious selections, filling out Team USA’s 29 man camp roster. With as many as six returning forwards from last year’s Gold medal winning team, Pitlick was in tough to crack this roster to begin with. The newcomers to the selection camp are of similar stature to Pitlick and will bring the tenacity and speed that was a hallmark of last year’s entry. Also along for the ride in what may be a case similar to Jordan Schroeder is 5’6” Rocco Grimaldi who is eligible for the 2011 entry draft.

If Team USA had used the same style of selection camp that the Canadians are fond of, there is little doubt in my mind that Pitlick would have been among the names called. I have to say I’m a fan of the Americans’ camp (minus the lack of goaltending competition) because the coaching staff have fewer players they have to focus on before making a decision. However Pitlick is not on this roster, which leaves him in Medicine Hat for a lenghy duration, possibly minus two of his star teammates.

Unlike Pitlick who did not make the selection camp roster, Anaheim’s 2010 first rounder Emerson Etem is vying for a spot. Selected two spots before Pitlick, Etem possesses that effortless speed that the American brass has been fond of in recent years. While speed isn’t exactly a weakness of Pitlick’s game, it can’t be called a strength either. A flashy scorer with some grit to his game, Etem could fill multiple roles for the American squad. This leaves a hole in the Hat’s top-2 lines, especially if Etem is suiting up for Team USA come boxing day.

Another traning camp invite went to Canadian Linden Vey, the leading scorer for the Tigers. Vey has been on fire early this year and would be considered a huge loss to Medicine Hat over the Christmas break. I don’t know much about Vey other than he’s been around the Dub for what seems like forever. He’s bounced around quite a bit but has found a home on Medicine Hat’s top line. He’s a year older than both Pitlick and Etem and has the offensive game to crack the Canadians’ final roster if he has a good camp and catches some instant chemistry with similarly skilled players.

All this means that Tyler Pitlick could be missing two key teammates in Medicine Hat and might be looked upon to fill the void. This is a great chance for us to get a better idea of what Pitlick can bring in the WHL. If he’s able to step up in the absence of Etem and Vey it’ll mean that Pitlick is on track at becoming a Top-6 guy at the NHL level. If the Tigers falter without their two stars it’ll be on Pitlick that most of that blame falls. Time to see if the move from NCAA hockey was worth it.

Prospects Live!

The night of Friday, December 3rd 2010 will not soon be forgotten. The AHL’s newest franchise, Edmonton’s affiliate the Oklahoma City Barons made what will be an annual pilgrimage to Manitoba to battle the Moose. It’s a match-up of future members of Northwest Division rivals, and both franchises have some nice things to look forward to if today’s game was any indication.

Attending tonight’s game was a gathering of Winnipeg’s Oilogosphere community. Along with myself, the Junior Vice-President of Bubbling Under, were two superb commenters who I happened to first come to know from visiting Lowetide’s fine site. Providing witty insight, and scamming free beer off the fine-featured waitresses of our pre-game boozenglug was the irreverent Showerhead. He is a man I’ve come to know on a more personal level ever since we discovered we share a passion for the field of Environmental Sciences, and have since taken two University classes together. I also had the pleasure of meeting another wise commenter in Icecastles, a man who has likely seen more snow in his life than most 70-year olds have, and still manages to remain loyal to the Oilers. As quick with his humour as he is with his adept hockey commentary, it was a pleasure meet the man and share a couple hours of drinking and hockey. There was also a friend of Showerhead, whose moniker will be Chris, because he lacks a handle around the Oilogosphere that I know of. Chris was indispensible, providing more colourful commentary and, well, shelled out the money up-front for the tickets.

Said tickets, it should be noted, were primo. First row between the blueline and faceoff circle, Barons attacking zone for two of three periods. We were so close to the action that Shawn Belle was actually able to look like he was ignoring me when I yelled “TAKE A SLAPSHOT” at him before a faceoff. While it did make for a bit of a trying time identifying things like breakout structure and defensive posture of the Oilers prospects, Showerhead always had to be on his game to avoid a glass-rattling hit from Johan Motin up-ending his overpriced alcoholic beverage.

My initial thoughts on the size of these fine upstanding gentlemen as the game was in its infancy is that these are some large mammals we’re dealing with. Alex Giroux stood out in my eyes as being much larger than advertised. Alex Plante also remains one of the largest defensemen I’ve seen. But the player that stood out more than the rest was Manitoba’s starting goaltender, a rookie by the name of Eddie Lack. He’s Dubnyk-sized and then some.

The Moose have a lot of things going for them this year, but have been treading water in the middle of the pack in the North Division. They found an adequate replacement for first round draft pick Cory Schneider between the pipes in the aforementioned Lack, who interestingly enough is the son of the goaltending coach previously employed by Florida’s goalie of the future, Jakob Markstrom. The Canucks took a flyer on him this off-season, betting on his bloodlines and look to have another NHL-calibre goaltender in the fold. He impressed me with his positioning and puck-moving abilities. The Moose are a veteran-laden team up front for the most part, but also feature a tandem of young first rounders in Jordan Schroeder, who scored, and Cody Hodgson, who did not. Both had relatively unspectacular nights and had gone somewhat unnoticed by my counterparts. A conversation with Showerhead went as such:

Showerhead: Hodgson was a fairly highly touted draft pick, wasn’t he? He seems to have lost a lot of his career already.

Doritogrande: He’s coming back from a pretty serious back injury that limited his playing time last year. Think of him like JF Jacques, with talent.

--------------

The Barons are a nice mix of veteran forwards and green blueliners this year, and tonight was no exception. They iced the following line-up:

Giroux-Moran-Macdonald
Omark-O’Marra-Reddox
Stewart-VandeVelde-Ondrus
Cornet-Kytnar-Hartikainen

Chorney-Plante
Bendfeld-Motin
Belle-Petry

Gerber

I’ll start with those I’ve identified as Bubbling Under’s prospects, and then talk a little about the team as a whole.

Linus Omark is one slick fucker. He’s got a reputation as a turnover machine and tonight was no exception. But as is the common refrain when Hemsky’s turnovers are mentioned, players that control the puck more are bound to turn over the puck more often. Omark’s linemates went out of their way to get Omark the puck, because he can do things with it. Created offense all night long by stick-handling through traffic, spotting the open man and outhustling his opponent to loose pucks. Did a lot of great work on the boards battling with men much larger than he, and showed off some impressive speed in a couple instances. Drew two penalties due to his hard work and constant motor. Clearly at the top of the AHL calibre players and wouldn’t look out of place on the Oilers. Oh, and he tried to pull his lob-shot out in the shootout. He started his attempt off with a spin-o-rama to pick up the puck and carry it in across the blue line. It made the four of us giggle with delight and want to have his babies. Okay, maybe just me. He’s an entertainer.

Chris VandeVelde was pegged as the de-facto checking center tonight, and was given the linemates befitting a player that the coaching staff wants in a defined role. He was able to saw-off the Moose top line of Hodgson-Volpatti-Shirokov with a little help from his friends. He showed good hustle, average speed and good skills in the faceoff dot. Although he appeared to defer to Milan Kytnar once in the third period when both young centers were on the ice together (a draw that Kytnar did win). Wasn’t shy in throwing his weight around in the corners either. Was the last Barons shooter in the SO and wasn’t able to impress, attempting to out-deke Lack only to run out of both time and space rather quickly. Wasn’t a good effort, especially with Reddox and Moran left on the bench.

Phil Cornet showed some hustle and a lot of try, but wasn’t much of a factor. He also didn’t get much ice-time so it wasn’t like much else could be expected about him.

Milan Kytnar was effective in the time he was given. Good positioning and faceoff skills. His speed is somewhat lacking at the AHL level and will hold him back from going any farther in his career.

To see Teemu Hartikainen on the fourth line was, to be honest, a shock. He got some extra time on the PP but didn’t put it to good use tonight. He was faster than I thought given most of the scouting reports knock his top speed. He’s also a battler along the boards and is willing to go into traffic with the puck. Drew a penalty by keeping his feet moving. A so-so effort in the shootout. He’s got a long way to go apparently, but he’s on track.

Taylor Chorney....The four of us had a nice comment on him when we noticed his jersey number. #4...check. Taylor...check. Chorney...damn. So close. To be truthful though, he was rushing the puck in a style similar to Edmonton’s current #4 tonight. It didn’t really work that well unfortunately. He was in good position most of the time tonight, but was caught flat-footed a couple times and took a careless tripping penalty in his zone. If my eyes were good tonight, he and Plante were facing the top two lines of Manitoba for a good chunk of the night.

Alex Plante is, as mentioned, a large mammal. He was good positionally except for a twenty-second stretch late in overtime where he made two successive mistakes. He was able to use his speed and physical prowess to make up for the first, throwing the Moose attacker to the ice in a rather impressive forearm shiver. He was taken wide about 15 seconds later and wasn’t able to recover, and was forced to take a hooking penalty to negate a dangerous scoring chance. Made up the second PP unit with Chorney but seemed tentative to unleash his shot from the point, preferring to pass to the sideboards time and time again.

Johan Motin knows how to finish checks, but doesn’t know how to stay out of the sin-bin. Took two penalties tonight for hooking/tripping infractions that could have been avoided through better positioning and speed. He’s regressing as a prospect in my opinion, not only due to the influx of new prospects to the system, but his own mental mistakes.

Jordan Bendfeld drew into tonight’s game, and holy hell did he make an impact. I’ll assume something’s up with Richard Petiot because a veteran presence would have helped tonight. Bendfeld’s shining moment came when he popped a moose forward center-ice just as he was receiving a pass. He came high and brought an elbow to the player’s head which resulted in an immediate whistle. That still didn’t stop former first round pick Ryan Parent from attempting to blind-side the forgotten prospect. Even though he didn’t seem prepared for the act of goonery, Bendfeld emphatically dropped Parent with a couple of quick haymakers. Two minutes for elbowing, two for roughing and a pat on the back from the entire Barons team.

Jeff Petry was an impressive physical specimen, both in his size and his skating ability. What surprised me was that he and Shawn Belle were kept away from the Moose’s top players at even strength. I had thought that Petry was taking on tough opposition but this wasn’t the case tonight. It is important to note however that the Petry-Belle tandem was the first over the boards on both SH and PP chances, and that’s a good sign for the young prospect. Maybe they’re taking the lessons learned from Chorney (throwing the kid into the deep end and hope he knows how to swim), and are bringing Petry along slower at EV but with added special teams responsibilities. Was relatively high-event tonight, on the ice for both Barons goals and one goal against.

A note on Gerber. He’s exactly what this team needs in net, especially with a blue-line as bereft of veteran presence as this one. He was solid tonight and came within a perfect Sergei Shirokov shot over his glove-hand from extending the SO. He’s also got a great mental attitude, as was demonstrated perfectly during the second period. The rowdies near us decided this was the best time to start the ever popular let’s-try-and-say-the-goalie’s-name-in-a-mocking-fashion trick. Hilarity ensued.

Showerhead: Stupid people. Gerber’s unbreakable!

Doritogrande: Uh...didn’t he break his neck last year?

Showerhead: ....so?

The Barons veteran forwards, to finish off my synopsis didn’t show up ready to play tonight, with the exception of Liam Reddox. The ginger was everywhere and was gifted the game’s first goal courtesy the best pass Marco Rosa has ever made. Note: Rosa plays for the Moose. Reddox had a full five seconds in front of Lack to deke seven different ways, finally and mercifully putting the puck five-hole. Giroux managed an assist on a nice pass to Belle coming into the zone late, but didn’t create much more offense than that. Moran was even more invisible. These two, along with Ryan O’Marra have to be better if they hope to take the second game of the back-to-back tomorrow night.

Thanks for reading, hope you enjoyed the game as much as I did.

Prospect Statistics - November

Apologies for my lack of posting during the month of November. Turns out my laptop isn’t as bulletproof as the price-tag suggested it should be. Nor is the extended warranty.

But I digress. November saw a couple of prospects pull away from the pack, while others came crashing back down to Earth after putting up successful showings in October. 2010 is turning out to be a banner year for Stu MacGregor, our resident talent finder, but it appears that the lustre is quickly dulling on 2009.

On a formatting note, I can’t stand the way I tried to organize the October stats, so I’ll be tweaking them yet again. Please comment if you’ve got suggestions on how this can be improved.

*Edit: I’ve not yet completed the icetime totals for our NHL prospects (Eberle, Hall, Paajarvi) and would like to get this thing up ASAP. I’ll have a second post up later on with their respective icetimes and comments.

Cameron Abney RW Edmonton/WHL
NOV 9GP 0-0-0 -2 9PIM 9ZPG
YTD 24GP 3-1-4 -4 26 PIM

Best use of a 3rd round pick ever? He’s a tough guy who appears unwilling to goon it up anymore. What good is he now that his burgeoning offensive talent has dried up? Didn’t dress for the last two games of November.

Phil Cornet Wing Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 5GP 0-0-0 -2 2PIM 2SH 5ZPG
YTD 15GP 0-2-2 -3 2PIM 12SH

Not sure what to expect here, as I didn’t peg him as an every-day player in OKC this year. Missed 6 games in a row in early November, likely due to JF Jacques’ conditioning stint. He’s not on a feature line, so the points aren’t likely to come. He’s also not pushing for additional ice time with his performances, so he’s likely in “next year territory” already.

Drew Czerwonka LW Kootenay/WHL
NOV 8GP 2-1-3 +3 13PIM 5ZPG
YTD 23GP 7-5-12 -1 26PIM

He’s come back down from his soaring heights of October, but he’s still producing at a respectable level for what he is (a 6th round pick). He’s seeing powerplay time (one PP goal this month) so his point totals should be taken with a grain of salt. Interesting player steadily earning the trust of his coaches.

Robby Dee C Maine/NCAA
NOV 5GP 0-1-1 +1 2PIM 15SH 4ZPG
YTD 13GP 5-7-12 +4 4PIM 36SH

As well as the month of October was to our long-lost 2005 draft pick, November was the polar opposite. His Maine squad had a very infrequent schedule which might have had some effect on his consistency, but that’s a poor excuse for a collegiate athlete who at 23 should be dominating the league. On a positive note, his faceoff percentages are hovering around 60% on the year (62% in November in just under 200 attempts). He, like VandeVelde, might garner a contract due to his toolbox meshing nicely with what the Oilers organization needs (big bodied C with faceoff skill).

Jordan Eberle RW Edmonton/NHL
NOV 14GP 0-7-7 -6 2PIM 22SH 7ZPG
YTD 23GP 4-11-15 -4 4PIM 41SH

Eberle continues to impress me at the NHL level with his consistency and work ethic. He’s the best of the kids and the coaches are rewarding his growth with special teams time (one powerplay assist). His lack of goal scoring is of little concern to me because he’s still creating offense. Some will point out that he’s been a premier goal scorer wherever he’s played in the past, but then again Liam Reddox was pegged as a top-6 guy or nothing at all coming out of junior, most kids will be different players once they mature. Hoping for more good things to come.

Taylor Hall LW Edmonton/NHL
NOV 14GP 4-3-7 -1 2PIM 36SH 8ZPG
YTD 23GP 6-6-12 -5 6PIM 55SH

Hall is improving over the last two months, and that’s a great sign for Oilers fans. He’s shooting, he’s more involved in the overall game, and he’s got confidence playing with Eberle and old man Horcoff. It’s great to see chemistry developing with our youngest player and our most responsible two-way forward and it’ll bode well for Hall’s future if he can be relied upon in all three zones. He’s scoring at even strength (3-2-5) as well as the PP (1-1-2) and his production has been consistent (only one multi-point game in November). The only question I have left is whether he can sustain this positive growth throughout the months to come.

Curtis Hamilton Wing Saskatoon/WHL
NOV 11GP 7-11-18 +13 0PIM 2ZPG
YTD 26GP 15-22-37 +26 6PIM

An outstanding month for our Dub stud has seen his stock rise on a National level, with an invite to Team Canada’s U-20 tryout camp. Hamilton has shown the ability to score at will and, perhaps more importantly, remain healthy. A big body who knows how to create offense on the PK (scored a SH goal this month) is a welcome commodity to any team. He might not be the kind of guy TC is looking at using in a Top-6 role for this year’s team, but I doubt they’ll find a better energy/role player who has a 6’3” frame. I’ll be surprised if he isn’t playing key minutes in Buffalo over Christmas.

Teemu Hartikainen RW Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 11GP 3-3-6 -3 10PIM 22SH 6ZPG
YTD 23GP 7-4-11 -11 17PIM 47SH

Hartikainen is doing what we thought he’d be doing in a Pro North-American league; score goals. He’s been very effective on the powerplay, all his goals this month came courtesy the man-advantage, but he’s still giving a lot back in terms of scoring chances the other way. He’s improving in this regard, his +/- is nowhere near as bad as his October statistic, but there’s lots of room to improve still.

Kellen Jones Wing Quinnipiac/NCAA
NOV 8GP 1-0-1 -1 6PIM 12SH 7ZPG
YTD 15GP 4-4-8 -1 25PIM 30SH

Not a lot of promising performances to write about for the wundertwins at Quinnipiac this month. Both brothers have been relatively ineffective. What’s more concerning is that their struggles appear to be affecting the team, who have been in a tailspin since the Jones’ offense dried up. As Kellen and Connor go, so too does their team. They’ve got to get back to their scoring ways or risk losing their team, and themselves back to relative obscurity.

Milan Kytnar C Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 11GP 0-2-2 -5 4PIM 8SH 9ZPG
YTD 22GP 1-4-5 -7 6PIM 17SH

A mediocre month for Kytnar. His offense is about where we should expect is, but the minus-5 isn’t what I was led to believe was par for the course. He’s not likely to be handling hard minutes as the Barons are a veteran-laden team, which makes his +/- a very disappointing stat.

Anton Lander C Timra/SEL
NOV 8GP 2-3-5 +1 4PIM 14SH 142.07TOI 4ZPG
YTD 24GP 6-6-12 +2 18PIM 40SH 434.16TOI

The 19-year old Lander is handling 3rd line duty in a professional league very well. He’s seeing on average 18 minutes of all-purpose ice time per game and is using it to score goals and keep opponents from scoring. He should be expecting a call from the Swedish junior National team where he could be the team’s top center and captain. He’s proving that his decision to stay another year in Sweden was sage advice. Continued play like this and Lander should be in line to make a direct jump to the NHL next year as a bottom-6 C.

Ryan Martindale C Ottawa/OHL
NOV 12GP 8-12-20 +12 8PIM 3ZPG
YTD 27GP 17-23-40 +21 18PIM

Okay. I’m starting to come around on the supposed “lazy oaf”. He’s kicking down the doors of the OHL along with fellow 2010 draftee Tyler Toffoli and 2011-eligible Shane Prince, and he’s doing it at even strength (5-12-17 EV scoring). It’d be interesting to see how the kids did if they were split apart, but if I’m coaching the 67’s I don’t fix what ain’t broke. Should be attending the Team Canada camp (who wouldn’t want a 6’2” center with offensive skill at least around for the tryouts?), but I’ll get over it. Keep it coming kid.

Linus Omark Wing Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 11GP 8-4-12 +4 6PIM 36SH 4ZPG
YTD 23GP 12-9-21 +5 28PIM 62SH

Linus has had a great start to the season in the AHL, but appearances are somewhat deceiving in November as his stat-line was the beneficiary of an un-repeatable performance against the Baby-Leaves. While 5 goals in a game is an impressive feat, that accounted for more than half his goal totals for the entire month. I might be nit-picking but if he’s to be garnering interest from the NHL team, he’s got to be a consistent scorer at even strength, which wasn’t the case in November (4-3-7 on the man advantage). The creativity is there and it’s being noticed, but he won’t get by on offense in Edmonton.

Magnus Paajarvi LW Edmonton/NHL
NOV 13GP 0-0-0 -8 0PIM 17SH 13ZPG
YTD 22GP 2-4-6 -4 6PIM 41SH

Ouch. An O-fer month should spell the end of Paajarvi’s season in the NHL on any team other than the Oilers. The kid’s clearly in over his head and needs more time developing at a level where he can succeed. If he’s not going to get the linemates or ice-time (he trails Hall and Eberle in both categories)in Edmonton, get him the hell outta dodge.

Tyler Pitlick RW Medicine Hat/WHL
NOV 13GP 8-5-13 +5 12PIM 5ZPG
YTD 22GP 11-12-23 +4 19PIM

Pitlick is still adjusting to life off-campus, and he’s also adjusting to a new position. He’s been moved off center, a move he’s made before. The offense is coming through in bursts (one 4 point game, one 3 point game) and he’s also contributing on the PP (1-2-3). He’s in the range of expectations I had at the start of the year, but he’s not dominating like his teammates (Linden Vey is on fire right now, Emerson Etem is no longer shooting blanks). Continued growth is important for Pitlick in all areas of the game, and we’re seeing baby steps from the 2010 2nd rounder.

Kristians Pelss RW Edmonton/WHL
NOV 11GP 1-5-6 +3 4PIM 8ZPG
YTD 25GP 2-6-8 +2 12PIM

The Latvian import seems to be getting better accustomed to the WHL, and it’s starting to show in his offensive totals. It’s coming in the form of multi-point games (3 of them for his 6 points), but we’ll take progress wherever it comes from with the 7th rounder I had no expectations of. He’s lapping Cam Abney right now, with the next goal being a guy the coach can count on for top-6 minutes.

William Quist

I don’t have anything nice to say.

Toni Rajala Wing Ilves/SM-Liiga
NOV 4GP 2-0-2 -1 2PIM 24SH 59.27 TOI 2ZPG
YTD 17GP 5-4-9 -7 2PIM 77SH 253.25 TOI

Rajala had a string of six missed games during the month of November. It could be military services, it could be a re-aggrivation of the October injury, but I don’t speak Flemish. He showed well in the games he participated in and appears to be getting a regular shift in the Top-6 when healthy. He’s been really trigger-happy this year, which I like to see. Hopefully he can find his way into more games as the season progresses and get his ass back to North America next year.

Chris VandeVelde C Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 11GP 3-2-5 +2 8PIM 14SH 7ZPG
YTD 22GP 4-3-7 -6 14PIM 23SH

The biggest area of improvement for VandeVelde is his +/-. He’s starting to understand where he has to be on the ice and is helping his team win hockey games. Point totals are nice to see, but isn’t what’ll get him to the NHL. Another month of numbers in the black and he’ll be pushing for a call-up.

Jordan Bendfeld D Stockton/ECHL

When last we chatted, I mentioned that Bendfeld had surfaced in Stockton for a game in October. Since then I’ve noticed he’s played in a couple more with middling results. I wasn’t able to get the game-by-game statistics due to an issue with the ECHL’s website. Suffice to say he’s not a threat to any of the young blueliners in Oklahoma.

Jeremie Blain D Bathurst/QMJHL

Didn’t play a game in November. He’s still injured with no timetable for his return to action.

Kyle Bigos D Merrimack/NCAA
NOV 8GP 0-2-2 -1 22PIM 11SH 6ZPG
YTD 13GP 0-4-4 +2 38PIM 20SH

Bigos is playing big on the Merrimack blueline, as his PIM totals seem to indicate. He’s not messing around and putting up the occasional assist. He’s still seeing powerplay time (1 PP assist) but the points aren’t coming as readily as last year. Still a longshot to have an NHL career but he’s having a decent enough season thusfar.

Taylor Chorney D Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 11GP 0-4-4 +3 2PIM 19SH 8ZPG
YTD 23GP 0-7-7 +4 10PIM 37SH

He was billed as an offensive defenseman, a puck-mover, when he signed out of UND three seasons ago. He’s putting up points on the PP (all four points this month) but isn’t doing much else. Not that that’s necessarily a bad thing mind, as he was known for being too “high-event” with the big club last year. If he can keep his game steady and mistake-free he might make his way back to the NHL one day.

Brandon Davidson D Regina/WHL
NOV 12GP 3-12-15 +1 17PIM 2ZPG
YTD 27GP 4-21-25 -7 28PIM

I’ll be the first to admit that when tallying the November totals for each player, I was outright surprised by Davidson’s, more than anyone else. Those single point games night in and night out really did add up for Davidson in November. He’s even improving his +/- from a month to month perspective. Has he turned the corner to the point where we can discuss a career in hockey once he graduates from junior? He’ll certainly be relying on the PP at the next level (2-4-6 in November).

Troy Hesketh D Chicago/USHL
NOV 10GP 0-0-0 -9 4PIM 5SH 10ZPG
YTD 21GP 0-0-0 -9 28PIM 7SH

Hesketh is getting schooled in a league where Jeff Petry was an All-Star. Troy is not even close. Offensively, defensively, everywhere.

Martin Marincin D Prince George/WHL
NOV 10GP 2-10-12 -4 14PIM 4ZPG
YTD 26GP 9-21-30 +5 35PIM

Marincin’s offense is continuing to hum along at a level most players can’t even dream about, but he’s starting to show holes in his all-around game. He’s still got blue-chipper written all over him, but he should be concerned about that minus-4 he’s got looming over his November. Also, he was a PP-dynamo this month, going 2-7-9.

Johan Motin D Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 10GP 1-2-3 -2 11PIM 10SH 8ZPG
YTD 19GP 1-2-3 -2 18PIM 14SH

Motin had a couple of good games in November, but it was one step forward, two steps back for the young Swedish defender. His -2 actually looks flattering, especially when noticing he had one game where he went +3. He was HS’d once in early-November and is the first defender to draw out of the line-up in favour of a more veteran presence. I wouldn’t be too surprised if he saw more of the pressbox as the season progresses.

Jeff Petry D Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 11GP 2-5-7 -1 8PIM 22SH 6ZPG
YTD 23GP 4-10-14 -9 12PIM 48SH

Petry had a much better month when judged by the metric that the first job of a defenseman is to defend. Reports are suggesting that Petry is playing fairly tough competition in the AHL, and it looks like he’s becoming better suited to his role. Offensively, Petry continues to hum along at a high level, particularly on the powerplay (1-3-4 in November). He also has a SH goal to his credit. Consistency is key for Petry if he wants to see NHL hockey this year.

Alex Plante D Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 10GP 1-3-4 +4 24PIM 14SH 6ZPG
YTD 22GP 1-5-6 +2 56PIM 22SH

Plante continues to gain momentum as a professional defenseman. He’s putting up a bit of offense, preventing the opponents to score, and laying a beatdown on anyone who so much as looks at him the wrong way. He’s exactly the type of defenseman the Oilers need right now. Could see NHL action in the new year.

Tyler Bunz G Medicine Hat/WHL
NOV 10GP 8W 0.923 SV% 2.27GAA 1SO
YTD 17GP 11W 0.913 SV% 2.57GAA 1SO

Tyler Bunz is trending up. He’s finally getting a starting goaltender’s workload and he’s proving that the faith in him is well deserved. He had a great November from a statistic viewpoint where he outplayed the front-runner for the U-20 starting goalie (also an Edmonton prospect). Nice things for a late-round pick.

Bryan Pitton G Oklahoma/AHL

Pitton didn’t play in November with the arrival of Jeff Deslauriers to OKC. Even with the recall of Martin Gerber to Edmonton, Pitton didn’t see a minute of action even though Deslauriers had a couple of off nights. I suspect he’s played his last game for the Oilers organization.

Olivier Roy G Bathurst/QMJHL
NOV 7GP 0.890 SV% 3.54GAA
YTD 18GP 0.907 SV% 2.88GAA 1SO

Olivier Roy is being touted as the odds-on favourite to be Team Canada’s starting goaltender in Buffalo this year. Let’s hope they didn’t look at his November stats, because they aren’t very pretty. He’s playing on a weak and undermanned team in Acadie-Bathurst, he’s being counted on to be the Titan’s best player night in and night out and he’s delivering mediocre results. I wasn’t convinced he had true #1 potential, and he hasn’t done anything in November to sway me.

A Jordan Bendfeld sighting

I've found him. He played a game October 16th with the Stockton Thunder. He had one shot.

Then he disappeared into the mist again. He was apparently assigned to Stockton by Edmonton on October 16th and then was re-called to OKC on the 21st. Presumably to provide a Jason Strudwick-type press-box presence.

He's still technically a prospect, and I'll try and follow him, but it apparently won't be easy.

Prospect statistics - October

This edition of the Oilers prospect statistics feature a couple of 2010 draftees toiling in the WHL who are looking at break-out seasons, some tough times developing in the AHL, and an impressive month from a man trying desperately to get his career back on track.

Note: Glove tap to SumOil, a frequent contributor to C&B and fellow prospect junkie who has been working in tandem with me to provide coverage of our rookies. Credit to him for the idea to include the ZPG, or Zero Point Game statistic to identify streaky scorers.

Also, where available (the CHL, Euro and USHL) I’ll include the year to date totals in parentheses.

Cameron Abney (Edmonton, WHL)

12(15)GP 3-1-4 (3-1-4) +1(-2) 37(37) PIM 10 ZPG

A better month for the big man. He’s putting up some offense and starting to get his flippers off. Hoping for more of the same in November. His ZPGs are troubling (he scored 3 points in one game, one in another), and I’d like to see more offensive consistency.

Phil Cornet (Oklahoma, AHL)

10GP 0-2-2 -1 0PIM 10SH 8ZPG

He’s adjusting. There’s no indication he’s playing on a feature line, and was HS’d twice. He’s not getting blown out of the water but he’s also not pushing anyone for more ice-time.

Drew Czerwonka (Kootenay, WHL)

13(15) GP 5-4-9 (5-4-9) E (-2) 9(13) PIM 7 ZPG

The first of our surprises in October is Drew (Willywonka) Czwerwonka. He’s had a fantastic start offensively and unlike the other “goon” in our WHL stable, he’s performing with some consistency. He scored in just under half his October contests (7 of 13 ZPG) and has been a key component to the Ice offense. More please.

Robby Dee (Maine, NCAA)

8 GP 5-6-11 +3 2PIM 59.3 FO% 2 ZPG

Robby Dee is the book-end to the Oilers 2005 NHL draft, and he’s playing for a contract this year as he’s in his Senior year with the Black Bears. He’s doing everything right to earn said contract. Offense, check. Can win faceoffs, check. 6’2”, check-mate. It should be expected that he’s dominating NCAA-level competition at his age (he’s 23), but it seems he’s finally putting his injury troubles behind him. And good for him.

Jordan Eberle (Edmonton, NHL)

9GP 4-4-8 +2 2PIM 19SH 3ZPG
168:51TOI (124.30EV 24.15PP 20.06SH)

I’m forgetting that Eberle is a rookie at the NHL. He’s calm, he’s got poise, and he’s got balls. One of my favourite comments I’ve heard of Eberle goes something like this: The kid drinks boiling water and pisses ice cubes. Describes him perfectly. Keep it coming kid.

Taylor Hall (Edmonton, NHL)

9GP 2-3-5 -4 4PIM 19SH 6ZPG
149:26 TOI (127.12EV 21.18PP 0.56SH)

Hall is about where I expected him to be at this point in the year. He had a rough first few games on the scoreboard but showed he’s got all the talent to stick in the league this year. The points are starting to come around (4 points his last two games in October, he might be a tad streaky in getting his points), and his effort level can’t be questioned. A solid, if unspectacular first month.

Curtis Hamilton (Saskatoon, WHL)

13(15) GP 8-9-17 (8-11-19) +15(+13) 4(6)PIM 4 ZPG

Wow. There’s an impressive stat line. Hamilton is doing everything, and with amazing consistency. What’s better is that he’s staying in the line-up (injuries are a concern here). Dare we hope this to continue?

Teemu Hartikainen (Oklahoma, AHL)

12GP 4-1-5 -8 7PIM 25SH 8 ZPG

Harski’s showing he can put the puck in the net with consistency. Unfortunately he also can’t stop opponents from doing it. It’s a hell of an adjustment to the AHL, and Hartikainen (among others to come) is proof of that.

Kellen Jones (Quinnipiac, NCAA)

7GP 3-4-7 E 19PIM 18SH 2 ZPG

Jones, along with his brother Connor, is pacing the Quinnipiac offense this season. If he weren’t already 20 years old and about 5’10”, this would be better news. He’s certainly someone to follow for the next half-decade though.

Milan Kytnar (Oklahoma, AHL)

11GP 1-2-3 -2 2PIM 9SH 8 ZPG

Kytnar is a unique player on the baby Oilers in that he’s keeping his head above water and he’s a rookie. We’ve been led to believe that any offense at the professional level from Kytnar should be considered a bonus, so his 3 points are a welcome surprise. One HS in the early going.

Anton Lander (Timra, SEL)

11(16) GP 4-0-4 (4-3-7) E(+1) 8(14)PIM 18(26)SH 203:06(292:09)TOI 7 ZPG

I’m happy with Lander’s stats to this point in the season. He’s maintained his position on the Eagles (3C) and has stepped up into more feature roles when he’s been needed (two games late in the month playing on the top-2 lines). LT’s been following his faceoffs which are hovering around 48% against men. He’s been consistent thus-far, now he’s got to keep this pace.

Ryan Martindale (Ottawa, OHL)

13(15) GP 9-9-18 (9-11-20) +10(+10) 8(10)PIM 4 ZPG

Martindale, to this point in the season, is a model of consistency. He’s putting up points game in and game out, and I haven’t heard anything of his “inconsistent” or “lazy” play. He’s playing with good players, so maybe he’s motivated to perform. I want to see a stat line similar to this come the end of November, and I’ll start thinking of him more as a prospect and less a suspect.

Linus Omark (Oklahoma, AHL)

12GP 4-5-9 +1 22PIM 26SH 5 ZPG

Omark’s had a great start to the year in the minors, but given his exploits in mens leagues across the pond, should we be surprised? He’s doing most of his damage at EV (6 of 9 points) and his +1 are indicators to me that he’s got a future in the big league. Another month like this and he may force management’s hand and earn a call-up.

Magnus Paajarvi (Edmonton, NHL)

9GP 2-4-6 +4 6PIM 24SH 6 ZPG
134:03 TOI (120.47EV 12:50PP 0.23 SH)

Magnus Paajarvi has yet to have a game in the NHL where he’s scored a single point. I don’t know if that’s big news, but his streakiness might become somewhat of a concern when assessing his counting numbers at season’s end. I wish I could accurately track penalties-drawn as a stat, because he’d be lapping the field at this point. A good month for a 19-year old in the toughest league on the planet.

Tyler Pitlick (Medicine Hat, WHL)

8(9) GP 3-7-10 (3-7-10) E(-1) 2PIM 2 ZPG

Consistency is again a positive aspect of Pitlick’s game. Once he finally got adjusted to life in the Dub he looks to be coming on strong. A three-game suspension kept him out of MH’s last three games this month, and one hopes Pitlick comes back with that chip still on his shoulder.

Kristians Pelss (Edmonton, WHL)

11(14) GP 1-1-2 (1-1-2) +1(-1) 4(8)PIM 9 ZPG

He’s scored his first WHL goal, so he’s met my expectations. Everything else at this point is all gravy. HS’d once, I don’t think he’s seeing feature minutes, nor is he likely pushing for them.

Toni Rajala (Ilves, SM-Liiga)

9(13) GP 2-2-4 (3-4-7) -5(-6) 0PIM 34(53)SH 7 ZPG 137:39(193:58)TOI

Rajala’s coming back from injury this month (missed the first two games this month, the last three of September), and one thinks he isn’t 100%. He’s getting torched in the defensive zone though, which is a concern as he was doing very well in this aspect last year in Brandon. Impressive shot totals though. I’d like more consistency (his four points came in only two games) and better contribution in the defensive zone.

Chris VandeVelde (Oklahoma, AHL)

11GP 1-1-2 -8 6PIM 9SH 10 ZPG

Here’s another rookie struggling to master proper defence in the professional ranks. He’s getting bent-over and keeps going back for more. Hope he can turn this around right quick, because we need him (well, his player type) at the NHL level. There’s a spot on the NHL team waiting for him if he can get his two-way game sorted out.

Jeremie Blain (Acadie, QMJHL)

0(2) GP 0-0-0 (0-1-1)

He’s injured. I’m not exactly sure what, but he didn’t play a shift in October and for a developing kid that’s a major concern. I’ll try and update his status as soon as I learn to speak French (don’t count on this).

Kyle Bigos (Merrimack, NCAA)

5GP 0-2-2 +3 16PIM 9SH 3 ZPG

A good month for the big bruising defenseman. He’s doing what’s needed and his team’s winning as a result. Everything’s about where I expected it to be here.

Taylor Chorney (Oklahoma, AHL)

12GP 0-3-3 +1 8PIM 18SH 9 ZPG

This is unexpected. Either Chorney’s playing (well) down the defensive depth-chart for the Barons, or he’s learned how important defence-first hockey is to a defenseman. Either case, I’m excited about his growth this month.

Brandon Davidson (Regina, WHL)

12(15)GP 1-9-10 (1-9-10) -8(-8) 4(11) PIM 4 ZPG

Not a stellar two-way kind of defenseman here, but he’s putting points up at a remarkably consistent rate. He doesn’t have much help in Regina (but there is another impressive young defender I’ll be writing about later) so I’m not overly concerned with the minus-column that’s approaching Chorney-esque levels.

Troy Hesketh (Chicago, USHL)

10(11) GP 0-0-0 (0-0-0) -1(E) 22(24PIM) 2(2)SH 10 ZPG

Didn’t expect offense here, but I’m still concerned that we don’t have...well...any offense to speak of. He’s kind of old to be playing USHL (most American s his age are at NCAA schools by this time), so he should be dominating most aspects of this level. I do like the physical/nasty side I’m seeing in his PIMs. It looks like he’s been put in a shut-down role, which is where he’ll make his living if he makes the show.

Martin Marincin (Prince George, WHL)

14(16)GP 6-11-17 (7-11-18) +9(+9) 10(21)PIM 4 ZPG

This is off-the-charts kind of surprising for me. I thought we had a defensive specialist in Marincin, but it looks like he’s got the all-around defenseman style in mind instead. There is nothing about this month I can complain about from Marincin, other than wishing for another 5 months of the same.

Johan Motin (Oklahoma, AHL)

9GP 0-0-0 E 7PIM 4SH 9 ZPG

He didn’t play in the first three games this year, but hasn’t left the line-up since. He’s probably low on the depth chart (behind Belle, Petiot, Plante, Petry and Chorney is my guess) but he’s not bleeding goals either. Keep him in the line-up and let him continue this slow curve of development.

Jeff Petry (Oklahoma, AHL)

12GP 2-5-7 -8 4PIM 26SH 7 ZPG

When Petry’s feeling the offense, it seems hard to stop him. The same cannot be said about his defensive play. He’s being pimped on the PP (5 points) for big minutes and he’s getting a lot of puck to the net, but I’d wish they told him to focus more on his defensive play, because he’s getting schooled, exactly the same way Chorney did two years ago. You’d think we’d learn, but...sigh...

Alex Plante (Oklahoma, AHL)

12GP 0-2-2 -2 32PIM 8SH 10 ZPG
If Petry’s the pop-gun on the Barons blueline, Plante’s certainly become the hired muscle. He’s taken to his role and embraced it. The way he’s playing (defensive specialist, policeman) will earn him a call-up sometime this year if he continues playing like he did in October.

Tyler Bunz (Medicine Hat, WHL)

6(7) GP .902 (.897)SV% 2.97 (2.99) GAA

Started 6 of the Hat’s 11 games, which isn’t what I would have hoped for this year. He was the undisputed #1 last year and if he’s platooning this year that means he’s taken a step backward in development. I’m no goalie guru, but his numbers look poor. He needs to turn it around.

Bryan Pitton (Oklahoma, AHL)

2GP .890 SV% 3.53GAA

He’s backing-up Martin Gerber, and delivering numbers of a traditional back-up. He won’t be getting a second NHL contract at this rate, and with the anticipated arrival of Jeff Deslauriers in OKC, he may not play another game for the Barons this year.

Olivier Roy (Acadie, QMJHL)

11GP 0.919 SV% 2.48 GAA 1 SO

He’s back between the pipes as the #1 guy (11 of 13 games in October) and delivering numbers befitting of a guy on the radar of Hockey Canada. Solid October here.

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Again, any suggestions on how I can make these updates better please let me know.

2011 Draft POI: Jesse Forsberg

Jesse Forsberg is another draft-eligible player who could be on the radar of the Edmonton Oilers scouting staff. He’s toiling for the Prince George Cougars of the WHL, the same team 2010 2nd round pick Martin Marincin is currently starring for.

Listed at roughly 6’0 194 pounds make him a solidly built developing defensive defenseman. Born in mid-August is going to make him one of the youngest draft-eligible players for the 2011 draft, so there’s hope he’ll still be able to add a couple of inches onto his frame at some point.

He’s not really known for his offensive instincts, though he put up a respectable 16 points in his rookie season in the Dub. His point totals this year (1-2-3) are somewhat of a letdown from last year thusfar, but the offensive production from the back end is being more than adequately addressed by the aforementioned Marincin (6-9-15) and the previously unknown-to-me Sena Acolatse (5-10-15). Maybe he’s been asked to focus more on his defensive play.

Certainly one of the strengths of Forsberg’s game is as a policeman. He has a deceptive left hand and a willingness to get his mitts off (13 listed fights over the last two years). He’s also a leader on his team (assistant captain at 17) and comes from a family where hockey appears to be a mainstay. Jesse was selected 11th overall in the 2008 WHL bantam draft only to be beaten out numerically by his brother Alex (a center) who went 1st overall to the Cougars this past May.

The elder Forsberg (no Swedish connection) has started to garner some interest around draft junkie circles, his game has already been critiqued here and here. In an interview before the 2009/10 season (Jesse’s rookie season in the Dub) he described his offensive instincts and his physical game as his strengths, while admitted he had to work hard on his footwork and improve his ability to read the developing play. Reports this year suggest he’s improving his two-way game, and adding that leadership role to his game.

Early projections for the 2011 draft class are still sketchy, but Forsberg has himself pretty highly rated going into the season. In THN’s Major Junior preview issue, Forsberg is listed as the 6th ranked player from the WHL (fine offensive player doesn’t shy away), nestled between Michael St-Croix and Ty Rattie. Others (the second “here” link) have him projected as the 45th ranked player. If he’s around in the second round, he might be a player of interest to the Oilers.

Why would the Oilers be looking at this player type? Well, the prospect pool does lack leadership, especially from the blueline. His physicality is missing in the pipeline since the graduation of Theo Peckham. Offense from the blueline is always a valuable commodity for the Oilers. His average size may hold him back, but if he can pack on another ten or so pounds before the draft combine, he’ll be among the most physical players available in the 2011 draft.

Given the tools, I’d say he’d be a good pick-up for the 2nd-3rd round if available.

2011 Draft POI: Shane Prince

The Ottawa 67s appear to this observer to be a legitimate force in the OHL this year. Five players are currently performing at a point-per-game pace through nine games. Their leading scorer however is not the highly touted Tyler Toffoli, a recent second-round pick of the LA Kings. It is also not Oilers 3rd round pick Ryan Martindale. He is unheralded Shane Prince, a 5’11” forward with a late 1992 birthday and forcing his way into the minds of scouts for the upcoming NHL draft. Currently torching the OHL for 17 points he’s tied for 4th in league scoring.

Prince should be a player of interest (POI) for the Oilers in the coming months. His statistics read a little oddly, as the OHL website has him playing in 104 regular season games last season, but we’ll ignore that. Taking just his point totals from Ottawa last year (he was traded from Kitchener) he was a 15-15-30 man but looks well on his way to eclipsing those totals this year.

The early buzz on Prince is mostly positive, with a couple mentions of his high level of competiveness, something I like to see in a prospect. He’s playing on the 1-line with Toffoli and Cody Lindsay (9 games 10 points) so he’s sure to get every opportunity to increase his offensive skills.

He’s going to need to put in a lot of work this year in order to convince NHL scouts that he’s a one-trick pony. His +/- last year was absolutely horrible on a strong 67s team. Of the top 14 skaters in terms of points, he was the only one in the red. He’s currently leading the 67s in +/- this year, but that could be as much a factor of his improved quality of linemates (they’re +3 and +5) as it is improved two-way play. If he wants to take the next step he’s going to have to show commitment to the defensive side of hockey, something I thought he’d have shown given his alleged tenacity and high compete level.

As it stands now Shane Prince would make a good mid-round selection for the Oilers. He could be nicked a couple of points because of his small size and the fact he’s a LW doesn’t make him an ideal player type for the Oilers, but he could bring another offensive dimension to the prospect pool. Continued offensive production combined with further growth of his two-way game, and he could be quickly climbing the draft lists.

I’d bet on the Oilers getting a good look at him this year as their scouts already have a reason to attend 67s games in scouting Ryan Martindale’s progress. Here’s hoping Prince performs when they’re in the building.

A case for giving Hall a birds-eye view

Here's Taylor Hall, in a situation I saw a lot of in tonight's game.

Taylor Hall has now played three NHL contests, to varying degrees of success. He’s gotten his feet wet playing on a line with the team’s new captain and fellow super-rookie Jordan Eberle. After these three games the team is a respectable 2-1, and Hall has recorded his first NHL point, an assist in the Oilers’ second game of the year. Unfortunately, he’s starting to show some habits.

Bad habits.

Habits that must be addressed sooner rather than later.

Before today’s contest with the Minnesota Wild, his line-mate and mentor Shawn Horcoff had this to say:

His shifts are too long... And he has to come back deeper for the puck to open up more ice. You have to overwork to get more ice. He's taking off (too quickly) and the defencemen are right there, but that's the NHL. These things will come. He wants it so badly, he stays out there because he wants it...

It’s a harsh reality for the Oilers first rounder, but it’s also truth. Sportsnet had a graphic up before tonight’s game showing Hall’s shift-times were the highest among Oilers (50 seconds per). Not just among forwards mind, this is team-wide. More than our established first-line players and even the defensemen. That’s kind of shocking.

He cut back on his shift-times today to a more respectable 45-seconds per, which is a start in the right direction. He has to show commitment to working within his limits and taking an active approach to reigning in his shift-times is a good first step.

On to the second part of Horcoff’s constructive criticism, his tendency to fly the zone was very noticeable in today’s game, particularly in the third period. I recall one such defensive series where he did it on two occasions, only to watch Eberle’s attempted home-run pass get gobbled-up at the blueline for a 5-bell scoring chance. He’s seemingly gunning for the neutral zone as soon as a teammate gains possession of the puck, hoping for an offensive chance of his own. What he has to realize at the NHL level is that possession of the puck does not always equal a change in offensive possession, a near mathematical impossibility in fact, with Edmonton’s current defensive corps playing as it has been. His lack of commitment to ensuring the opposing threat has been eliminated is creating odd-man chances against on a nightly basis, and Hall must be made to see his failures in this area if he is to succeed.

Let’s be honest here. Taylor Hall, for all his bells and whistles, is still a teenager. We all know he’s going to make the inevitable mistake and there isn’t much we can do about it. I’ll freely take the good with the bad provided he remains on his learning curve. But like my parents always said, you have to learn from your mistakes. And tonight it became apparent that either Hall is doomed to repeat some mistakes several times, or he’s turning a deaf ear to his captain and linemate. He was flying the zone tonight exactly as was addressed before the game.

So maybe he’s not one to learn from his mistakes. How else can the coaching staff get the message across to Hall that he can’t be thinking offense before his team has gained full possession of the puck?

My solution is hinging on the possibility that he’s more of a visual learner. Maybe it’s time to sit Taylor Hall in the press-box for a game.

Some of you may feel it’s too early in the season to already be so down on Hall’s play. Some of you might be right. It is early, I understand that, but it’s never too early to instil proper practices in our future franchise player. He shouldn’t view the press-box as a demotion, more of a learning tool to help him understand how our veteran players continue to (sort-of) thrive in the NHL. He could learn a lot from watching Horcoff, Hemsky and Penner’s defensive zone presence from upstairs. Hell, I’ve never played a game of organized hockey higher than house-league myself but I think that from watching Horcoff et al. for the last five years I’ve got the gist of how to properly execute a defensive-zone breakout if I’d need the skill.

The press-box duty is also a way of delaying judgement on his 9-game tryout. Not that I’m advocating for his banishment to Windsor, but it’s still technically an option if by the end of his 9th game he’s gone 0-1-1 for -10. Press-box duty for a game (or two, situation depending) would be a much better idea than sending him back to junior. The PR nightmare alone for sending the 1st Overall back to junior would be unbelievable.

Taylor Hall will one day be a great-to-elite level hockey player in the NHL. But maybe he’d learn a thing or two from a birds-eye view on Saturday.

Prospect statistics - September

This is something I’d been meaning to do a couple of days ago, but certain things (illness, bachelor party, subsequent second illness) have conspired against me. But no longer, so here I present Bubbling-Under’s September prospect statistics.

A word of warning; these stats have been compiled by a fan. This isn’t by any means definitive. This is a tool to be used by similar-minded fans to grade our prospects. Also, the CHL websites are absolutely horrible this year for personal stats-tracking applications such as this. I’ve done the best I can, and hope that in the future I can get by using eliteprospects.com for the CHL and AHL prospects.

With all that said, on to the stats. The three CHL leagues are under way, and our two prospects in the Elite Leagues in Europe have been under way for more than half a month now. I’m still awaiting word on the USHL and NCAA season openers, while the AHL and ECHL will be underway in about a week’s time.

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Cameron Abney: 3GP 0-0-0 -3 0PIM

For a fighter trying to become a well-rounded hockey player, he hasn’t done a whole hell of a lot of...well anything. A disappointing September.

Drew Czerwonka: 2GP 0-0-0 -2 4PIM

Another pugilist, but at least he’s putting up a couple of PIMs. I didn’t come into this year expecting much, so at least he’s meeting expectations.

Curtis Hamilton: 2GP 0-2-2 -2 2PIM

A solid start to the season for Hamilton, and he’s still healthy. Both are positives. Better work on that minus-column however.

Anton Lander: 5GP 0-3-3 +1 6 PIM 8 shots 89:03TOI

This is why I love eliteprospects. More stats for me to play around with and use for interpretation. Lowetide is using the top corner of his site as a shrine to Lander and his FO%. A great start to the season offensively for Lander, who is currently holding down the 3C spot for Timra and is an assistant captain.

Ryan Martindale: 2GP 0-2-2 0 2PIM

I’d hoped that Martindale would be able to be an offensive leader on this team, and he’s showing he’s fully capable of it. Here’s hoping his compete level remains high all season.

Tyler Pitlick: 1GP 0-0-0 -1 0PIM

It’s a one game sample size. Not much can be said here.

Kristians Pelss: 3GP 0-0-0 -2 4PIM

Again, a player who is coming in without expectations. Judging from his stat-line, he’s adjusting.

Toni Rajala: 4GP 1-2-3 -1 0PIM 19shots 56:19TOI

This is a nice stat line, but it must be stressed that Ilves played 7 games in September with Rajala missing the last three. That’s cause for concern. Is it injury or military? I really don’t know.

Jeremie Blain: 2GP 0-1-1 0 2PIM 5 hits

The Q is currently lapping the field in terms of CHL websites. He also has two shots, none on goal.

Brandon Davidson: 3GP 0-0-0 0 7PIM

His point totals are down from last year, but there’s no Eberle in Regina either. He looks to be holding his own defensively without Colten Teubert.

Martin Marincin: 2GP 1-0-1 0 11PIM

We’re seeing both offensive acumen and feistiness from the big Slovak. Both are qualities I like in big defensemen.

Tyler Bunz: 1GP 0.84SV% 2.90GAA

It’s one game. I’m not looking too far into these poor stats until we get a reasonable sample size.

Olivier Roy: 0GP

Acadie-Bathurst played three games in September with no sniff of Roy. Cause for concern? I think so.

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Those are the prospects who have had their seasons begin. In the months to come, I plan on updating these stats to compile season totals, while still providing monthly totals. My hope in doing this is to provide proof that a player’s stats may or may not be “sustainable” or just the product of a couple hot months.

I’ve also plans to compile these stats for some of the top upcoming draft prospects. If you have any input on whether I should attempt this, or have a specific prospect in mind for me to track please don’t hesitate to ask.

Controlled expectations: Goalies

As promised, the last of the prospects. Let’s hope one of ‘em pans out better than the poor sap tending goal here.

Tyler Bunz G Medicine Hat WHL; 2009/10 stats: 57GP 31-19-5 2.91 0.898

Bunz should hope to continue his development where he left off last season, as the starting goalie for a strong Medicine Hat squadron. His numbers scream “stacked team” to me, because despite a healthy win total, his GAA and SV% aren’t what you’d expect from a quality starter, even in the Dub. Bunz is a large goalie without much draft pedigree, but you’d have to go back awhile to find a goalie drafted by the Oilers that wasn’t signed to an entry-level contract. Expect him to be signed by the end of his junior career no matter how well he’s developed. The difference makers like Emerson Etem are back for another year for the Tigers, and with the addition of Tyler Pitlick Medicine Hat should have the horses to make a push for a lengthy playoff run. Expect Bunz’s win total to be high again because of that, but I’m hoping he improves his underlying numbers considerably if he’s to be anything more than AHL fodder. Controlled expectations for Bunz are:

- Maintain the starting goalie position for the Tigers, playing in 55+ games
- Improve his GAA and SV% to approximately 2.75 and 0.908 respectively.

Bryan Pitton G Stockton/Springfield ECHL/AHL; 2009/10 stats: 22GP 9-9-3 2.85 0.921; 8GP 2-6-0 4.71 0.857

Pitton is playing out the string on his entry-level deal with the Oilers, and seeing as he isn’t fit for AHL competition at this point in his career, there’s not much doubt that he won’t be signing a second contract with the Oilers. Originally a 5th round pick back in 2006 Pitton hasn’t done badly given his draft pedigree, but then again I didn’t expect him to pan out anyway, so it’s not like this should be considered a wasted pick. Stockton was actually a pretty good team last year, but Pitton was behind the undrafted Andrew Perugini for most of the year, a sign of how far down the depth chart he fell. After earning (in other words, we had no other options) his call-up to the AHL, Pitton played like he was in over his head on a truly horrible AHL team. Those numbers are downright ugly. With the off-season acquisition of Martin Gerber (or one of JDD/DD) serving as the workhorse in Oklahoma this year, it appears Pitton will be sent packing to Cali again. Beaches and sun on his off-days while getting paid by an NHL team to occasionally stop a puck, he must be in hell. Controlled expectations for Pitton are:

- Play well enough to entice another professional team into paying him money to stop pucks

Olivier Roy G Cape Breton QMJHL; 2009/10 stats: 54GP 32-21-0 2.62 0.908

I’m kind of worried about Oliver Roy, to tell the truth. Traded to the Acadie-Bathurst Titan in the off-season, Roy has yet to play a game for his new club which is already seven games into its season according to hockeydb. Is he injured? Is he being traded again? Did he lose his starting spot to this guy? Roy is seen as the goalie of the future for this organization in some circles, but he’s got a lot of work ahead of him if he’s going to impress me. He’s been a starting goalie in the Q-league for the past three seasons, so I’m expecting him to dominate in his final season...whenever he starts playing. As an under-sized goalie who relies on sound positioning and reflexes, Roy needs to remain in top-shape to be effective, and sitting in the press-box for an extended period of time isn’t going to help our top goalie prospect. Controlled expectations for Roy are:

- Assume control of the starting goalie position, playing in 50+ games this year
- Continued forward progress in his stats, GAA around 2.50 and SV% of 0.920
- Compete for Team Canada’s goalie tandem for this year’s U-20 tournament.

Controlled Expectations: Blue and Goal

I told you all I’d have the Bubbling Under’s defense and goalie controlled expectations for our prospects up and running, and I’m finally making good on that promise. As earlier, last year’s stats are taken from hockeydb, unless otherwise noted.

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Jordan Bendfeld D Stockton/Springfield ECHL/AHL; 2009/10 stats: 52GP 0-10-10 91PIM, 10GP 0-1-1 7PIM

Jordan hasn’t had a lot of positive press in recent years. He was drafted in 2008 when the Phoenix Coyotes (2006) didn’t sign him to an entry level contract. Many among the Oilogosphere thought it was a waste of a pick, and that Bendfeld would be available to be signed as a free agent after the draft. I think that if the Oilers scouting staff saw something they liked, they made a good decision by taking him. His career path is a bit staggered, due to injury in 2008-09. He came back strong last year and played well in the ECHL, earning a call-up at the end of the AHL season where he didn’t look out of place (he was -2 over his 10-game audition). I think we’ll see some nice things from Bendfeld this year. Controlled expectations for Bendfeld are:

- Play more games in the AHL than the ECHL this year.
- Improve work in the defensive zone, with a respectable plus-minus (-5 on the season in the AHL)
- Score a goal in regular season AHL play.


Kyle Bigos D Merrimack NCAA; 2009/10 stats: 36GP 4-7-11 94PIM

I don’t think Bigos is playing in the right league, to be honest with you, and his 94PIM attest to it. NCAA isn’t a league where rough play is tolerated. He’s also not what you’d call a “freshman” as he began his college career at age 20. His point totals are nice, but not something that should be expected at the next level. He’s said to have a plus slap-shot and is a massive man, but I don’t see much of a player here. Controlled expectations for Bigos are:

- Establish a presence in the Merrimack Top-4 defensemen
- Continue to see ample time on the PP, scoring 7-14-20 over the season.

Taylor Chorney D Springfield/Edmonton AHL/NHL; 2009-10 stats: 32GP 4-9-13 14PIM, 42GP 0-3-3 12PIM

Oh boy. This one’s hard to pick. He’s got the most NHL seasoning among the blueline prospects, but he’s among the least ready for the NHL. I’m convinced there’s an NHL career in him, but he’s going to be a PP-specialist 6-7 guy, and he certainly won’t make his mark in Edmonton. The Oilers have brought in some veteran presence and depth for the AHL club, pushing Chorney mercifully farther down the NHL depth chart. I expect he sees a full season in the AHL unless injuries hit. He’s just not ready to defend in the NHL, and that’s kind of his job description. Controlled expectations for Chorney are:

- Learn to play defence, avoid the abysmal minus-column we’ve seen for the last two years.
- Be one of the premier PP quarterbacks in the AHL, scoring 40 points over a full season
- Push his way back to the top of the Oilers recall list when injuries hit

Brandon Davidson D Regina WHL; 2009/10 stats: 59GP 1-33-34 37PIM

A sixth-round pick from the most recent draft, Davidson is known more for how he came to be playing hockey than for what he does well. He’s going back to a Regina Pats team that, with all respect, will be in tight to avoid looking like last year’s Edmonton Oilers. Davidson is going to have to find another level if he hopes to get Regina into respectability. He’s unique in that he doesn’t have much of a track record, so last year’s impressive stats could either be a fluke or a start of nice things to come. Controlled expectations for Davidson are:

- Continue his development as a two-way defenseman, having one of the best +/- stats on the team and scoring around 40 points.

Troy Hesketh D Minnetonka HS USHS; 2009/10 stats: 24GP 2-15-17 47PIM stats link

I really don’t know what to think of Hesketh. When he was drafted, he was completely unheralded, but we liked the size package. A year after his draft, he hasn’t done much to impress me. He really shouldn’t be thought of as an offensive defender, but you’d expect any significant prospect to put up monster numbers against high-schoolers. He did show good defensively (his +37 was tied for 2nd best on the team), but he actually regressed in his points totals from the previous year. Not what we should like to see from a 3rd rounder. He’s playing for Fargo in the USHL this year, and has committed to the University of Wisconsin next season. Much like Kyle Bigos he’ll be starting his NCAA career at 20, not ideal. Controlled expectations for Hesketh are:

- Have a Jeff Petry-esque season in the USHL, emerging as one of the best defensemen in the league
- Be among his team’s top defensemen in +/-

Martin Marincin D SlovakiaU20 2009/10 stats: 35GP 2-4-6 71PIM stats link

I’m expecting big things from Marincin this year as he transitions to WHL hockey in Prince George. He’s got a good young team to play with, featuring a game-breaking forward in Brett Connolly and another high draft pick in Jesse Forsberg, so I’m expecting he will improve his offensive game while keeping his defensive awareness in check. For some reason, his 2008/09 stats were much better than his 09/10 were. Hopefully there was an underlying issue, and it wasn’t a regression in his offensive game. Controlled expectations for Marincin are:

- A full season of WHL hockey as a Top-4 defenseman
- Strong defensive play while allowing his offensive game to blossom, 35 points from the blueline
- Participate for Team Slovakia in the December U20s.

Johan Motin D Springfield AHL 2009/10 stats: 55GP 1-5-6 33PIM

Johan Motin didn’t have the greatest season in the AHL last year, but it’s important to remember that this was just his 19-year old season. He plays with the presence of a much older player, and I think he’ll be a strong option for the Oilers in the coming years. In coming over last year, Motin left the SEL where he’d played for the previous three seasons (ahem, that’s something similar to what Magnus Paajarvi did, just for comparison). He’s in the mix for the Barons this year, but will have to battle this year to earn a spot on a very veteran-rich blueline. Controlled expectations for Motin are:

- Play a full season of AHL hockey with improved defensive play
- Continue to put up just enough offense to remain relevant in today’s NHL

Jeff Petry D Michigan State NCAA 2009/10 stats: 38GP 4-25-29 26PIM

Petry, considered one of the shiniest gems in our stable of blueline prospects, had a strong bounce-back season with Michigan State. He emerged as a leader on his team, while developing into a shutdown presence and a powerplay quarterback, all in just his Junior season. After a late-season call-up, Petry showed well in the AHL and kept his status as a blue-chip prospect alive. With the expansion Barons this year, it’s really tough to tell where Petry stands on the depth-chart, but expect he’ll get the organizational “leg-up”. Controlled expectations for Petry are:

- A full season of AHL hockey working on his shutdown game
- A constant presence on Oklahoma’s PP, contributing 30 points (5G 25A)

Alex Plante D Springfield AHL 2009/10 stats: 49GP 2-7-9 122PIM

Plante’s stock rose faster than any of Springfield’s D last season. It was public knowledge that Plante was a work-in-progress kind of prospect before last season, but it looks like that project is nearing completion already. Plante spent the entire season in the AHL last year and took on tougher competition as the year went on. He stepped up when the coaches asked and showed more room to grow, earning a call-up when injuries hit hard. He’s a big body and loves to use his size to punish smaller players, and has some offensive upside from junior that has yet to establish itself. Injuries are a HUGE concern for Plante. Controlled expectations are:

- A healthy season in the AHL as one of the Barons top defensemen
- Push for time on the PP, scoring 20 points (3G 17A)
- Be one of the first defensive call-ups to the Oilers

Uh...It’s late. And I have to work at 5:30AM tomorrow morning. Goalies to follow tomorrow. I hope...

Controlled expectations: forward prospects

Having completed my series of NHL controlled expectations, I thought it’d be a good idea to take on the rest of Edmonton’s prospect pool. We have a very diverse group of prospects in the system, and it’s important to not judge them against each other, but rather based on their unique career paths. It’s both impossible and illogical to compare the exploits of Magnus Paajarvi and Anton Lander even though they were on the same team. We can’t point to Lander’s stat lines and then to Paajarvi’s and say that Lander is not as likely to impact the roster at the NHL level. Anton’s defensive responsibility and leadership qualities are as important, perhaps moreso to this particular team than Magnus’ offensive wizardry.

But in order for us to say that our kids are progressing we have to set the bar somewhere, right? That’s where this guideline comes in. Keep in mind that this is only one person’s opinion, but it’s a start. With our three wunderkids already taken care of, I’ll continue with the rest of our forwards today. All stats are taken from www.hockeydb.com except those of Kristians Pelss and William Quist, which take from www.eliteprospects.com

*EDIT: Sonofabitch! I just learned how to hyperlink! That only took two years of reading comments. Damn!

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Cameron Abney RW Everett/Edmonton WHL; 2009/10 stats: 68GP 6-7-13 123PIM

Abney saw his goal total increase by a factor of 6 last year, but we shouldn’t be expecting a meteoric rise this year. We know what we’re going to get in the big man, and that’s fists. I was impressed by his skills in the Oilers rookie tournament, and think we might have a legitimate heavyweight prospect on our hands. The OilKings are still a developing team, so we shouldn’t expect that he’s going to be playing with the best linemates or surrounded by the best team. Controlled expectations for Abney are:

- Play a full season in the WHL, scoring in the range of 20 points.
- Cut down on bad penalties while becoming one of the most feared fighters in the WHL
- Improve skating in order to succeed at the next level

Phillippe Cornet LW Rouyn-Noranda QMJHL; 2009/10 stats: 65GP 28-49-77 32PIM

Cornet actually saw his points-per-game totals fall from last year. He’s a bit hard to project accurately because of this, it’s hard to tell if he’s already hit a wall or whether it was the team that had issues. Reports suggest he isn’t the most reliable two-way player (his +6 was among the worst on his team), so unless he has a career changing epiphany a’la Liam Reddox, we’re looking at an undersized, moderately offensively talented forward here. Controlled expectations for Cornet are:

- Play 40+ games in the AHL, scoring in the range of 20 points.
- Improve his two-way game, +/- within a reasonable range of -5

Drew Czerwonka LW Kootenay WHL; 2009/10 stats: 54GP 4-9-13 106PIM

Willy Wonka and his chocolate factory were picked up this past draft with little fanfare, and that’s a positive for the tough guy from Saskatchewan. Expectations are markedly lower for a 6th round pick than a comparable player-type in Cameron Abney (3rd round the previous year). At 166th overall, Drew is a longshot to make the show but that doesn’t mean it’s not possible. The Kootenay Ice look to be losing a lot of veterans this year, so either the team and Czerwonka take a step back in competition, or they look to Drew to be a team leader and offensive contributor. You know which one I’m betting on. Controlled expectations for Czerwonka are:

- Play a full season of WHL hockey while improving his all-around game
- Score in the range of 20 points with a +/- around -10

Robby Dee C Maine NCAA; 2009/10 stats: 33GP 13-12-25 32PIM

Robby had the kind of year that puts a prospect back on the map. The question is, can he build off this year or is it his high-water mark. Dee will return to Maine for his senior year where the Oilers hope that he proves last year was not a flash in the pan. He’s playing for his contract now, so you’ll expect him to be motivated. Injuries remain a very big concern for the adequately-sized centerman who would only add to the depth at C in the AHL. Controlled expectations for Dee are:

- A full, healthy season for Maine providing a veteran presence on the top-2 lines
- Play with enough passion to earn a contract from the Oilers
- Score at a level on par with last season’s totals

Curtis Hamilton LW Saskatoon WHL; 2009/10 stats: 26GP 7-9-16 6PIM

If Hamilton didn’t have bad luck last year, then he wouldn’t have had any luck at all. Enduring freak injuries one after the other hampered his games-played total, and you’d have to think that he wasn’t 100% healthy in the games he did suit up for. A healthy season is a must in order to sell the expenditure of a 2nd round draft pick to the fanbase. Saskatoon is a perennial Eastern Conference contender with some key pieces set to return to the club, meaning that if Hamilton remains healthy they should challenge once again. Controlled expectations for Hamilton are:

- A relatively healthy year (65 games) and a return of his offensive skills (25 goals, 60 points)
- An invite to Team Canada’s U20 camp would be a bonus
- Continued development of a two-way game to accompany his size, suitable for 3rd line NHL duty

Teemu Hartikainen C/W KalPa SM-Liiga; 2009/10 stats: 53GP 15-18-33 22PIM

The Finnish steamroller makes his way across the Atlantic for this year after completing his nationally required military service. He showed a nice increase in offensive output the 2008/09 campaign, made more impressive because he was serving in the military by day and playing hockey by night. His footspeed has been addressed and is now no longer thought of as a weakness, and his power game is a thing of beauty. I said during one of the Oilers rookie games that his low-post game reminds me a lot of Jaromir Jagr when he was at the peak of his game, and I stand by that. He’s very dominant on his feet and has the hands to turn heads in Oklahoma this year. Controlled expectations for Hartikainen are:

- Play a full season (70+ games) in the AHL, scoring 20 goals.
- Continued work on skating and defensive play, becoming a valuable two-way winger.

Kellen Jones LW Vernon BCHL; 2009/10 stats: 41GP 12-41-53 18PIM

Jones and his twin brother were both 20-year olds last year playing in a low-tier hockey league. Take these stats for what they’re worth, as they don’t imply there’s a lot to get excited about. Truthfully, I’m not expecting much from Jones as he transitions to NCAA hockey. I’m unsure where he’s attending and don’t have a lot of info on this player. Controlled expectations for Jones are:

- Become more recognized for playing hockey

Milan Kytnar C Saskatoon/Vancouver WHL; 2009/10 stats: 45GP 14-26-40 42PIM

Kytnar returned to the WHL this year as both an import and an overager, a lethal combination in Saskatoon, but turned his career around in Vancouver. Just as he was expected to contribute the previous season in Saskatoon, Kytnar was a consistent point producer and shutdown center for the Giants as they made another deep run into the playoffs. He’s not likely to bring much of that offensive game to the pro ranks, but a true shutdown center is always handy to have in the system. Controlled expectations for Kytnar are:

- Be a constant presence in Oklahoma’s lineup, contributing around 30 points
- Continue to excel in a shut-down role while improving faceoff percentages

Anton Lander C Timra SEL; 2009/10 stats: 49GP 7-9-16 14PIM

Stats don’t tell the whole story of Anton Lander. When he was drafted 40th overall in 2009 the words that ran from every scouting report were the same; two-way, defensive, leader. He’s the shut-down 3rd line C of the Oilers future. He may even be captain one day. But for now he returns to Timra where he will continue to develop his already above-average checking and two-way abilities. Let’s hope he scores some too. Controlled expectations for Lander are:

- Take on a leadership role (an A) for Timra, Captain Team Sweden’s U20 squad
- Establish himself as the 2nd line center for Timra, scoring in the neighbourhood of 20 points

Ryan Martindale C Ottawa OHL; 2009/10 stats: 61GP 19-41-60 37PIM

I haven’t much respect for Martindale’s supposed lack of interest from game to game, but if this kid ever gets his head fully into hockey he’ll be fun to watch. He impressed me in the rookie tournament, and I hope he can translate his strong showing into a career year with Ottawa. He’s returning to what looks like a re-building 67s team, as three of the top-5 scorers and three of their best defenders would figure to be moving on. It will fall to Martindale and Tyler Toffoli to pick up the slack offensively. I’m very worried about Martindale’s one-dimensional game, he was the owner of one of the worst +/- stats on the team, and that’s one area that further development is essential. Controlled expectation for Martindale are:

- Establish himself as the #1 center on the 67s, scoring at a point-per-game clip.
- Dedicate himself to becoming a better two-way player (as evidenced by an improved +/-)
- Eliminate “disinterested” and “uninspired” from his scouting report.

Linus Omark W Moscow KHL; 2009/10 stats: 56GP 20-16-36 34PIM

The little engine that could finally makes his way across the Atlantic, and is in tight to secure a roster spot at the NHL level due to the influx of more highly-touted rookies. An impressive training camp might secure him a roster spot, but he’s more likely to spend time in the AHL acclimatizing to the North American game. His game appears quite one-dimensional (the dreaded +/- stat again) but our scouting reports also say that he’s a pesky bugger to knock off the puck. We know he’s the most creative player in the organization since The Hockey Jesus (that’s Rob Schremp for those unfamiliar with the BofA glossary), but like Schremp taught us offensive ability gets your waived to Long Island PDQ. Controlled expectations for Linus Omark are:

- Strong performance in the AHL, scoring at or near a point per game
- At least one call-up to the big club where he does not embarrass himself like Taylor Chorney’s minus-column

Tyler Pitlick C Mankato NCAA; 2009/10 stats: 38GP 11-8-19 27PIM

Pitlick was the only teenager to play anywhere close to a full season for Mankato this season, but is transferring out of college life for the bus-tour of Western Canada. I’ve always seen this kind of direction as meaning he didn’t take well to the educational setting that University is supposed to be about, but I could be wrong here. Pitlick’s game is definitely better suited to the crash and bang of Dub hockey, he was very impressive in the Oilers rookie tournament for both his offensive ability and his physicality. Hockeydb doesn’t list +/- statistics for the NCAA as far as I can tell, so I’m not sure if he was playing in a sheltered role, or getting killed by everyone, or whatever. As a result, his two-way ability is still up in the air, but we’ll know soon enough based on who he’s thrown out against with the Medicine Hat Tigers. He’s going to a team that figures to be strong in the coming year (also featuring 2010 Oilers pick Tyler Bunz and 2010 first round sniper-in-the-making Emerson Etem), so my expectations might be a little high. Controlled expectations for Pitlick are:

- Assume the role of #1 center playing alongside Etem for a full season
- Dominate offensively, posting numbers similar to a 30-50-80 mark.
- Challenge for a spot on Team USA’s U-20 squad

Kristians Pelss LW Riga Juniors Belarus; 2009/10 stats: 46GP 6-3-9 28PIM

He’s coming to Edmonton in the WHL this year, so we’ll be able to get a much better read on this prospect in the coming months. There haven’t been many Latvians to play hockey at the NHL level so the odds are stacked against him, but then again those odds were even higher for Anze Kopitar or that Japanese goaltender the Kings employed a couple seasons ago (Fukufugi?), it can be done. Controlled expectations for Pelss are:
- Play a full season in the WHL
- Score a goal, get credit for an assist.

William Quist LW Nybro (Div1 Sweden); 2009/10 stats: 33GP 10-12-22 44PIM

I have no idea if he’s still Oilers property, but Willy is still apparently playing hockey and I’m as shocked as anyone. His point totals are nothing special, but his size (6’5”) certainly is. Controlled expectations for Quist are:

- To not fall as far off the prospect map as he did last year.

Toni Rajala RW Brandon WHL; 2009/10 stats: 60GP 26-37-63 24PIM

Rajala stats last year came on an absolutely stacked Wheaties team, so take that PPG with a grain of salt please. He also played part of the season through various injuries, so there’s that angle also. Any way you look at it, it’s hard to deduce whether Rajala’s season was a good one or not. He’s returning to Finland this year to complete his required military service, and has already started his season with Ilves of the SM-Liiga with one assist in two games (-2). I expect he’ll have a hard time this year due to his military requirements eating up his down-time, but will still be productive. Controlled expectations for Rajala are:

- Play a full season in the Finnish Elite League on Ilves’ top-two lines, scoring 15-20 goals.
- Manage his time effectively between hockey and military life as Hartikainen did last season
- Be a key piece of Finland’s U-20 team (he was on the top-line last year).

Chris VandeVelde C UND NCAA; 2009/10 stats: 42GP 16-25-41 22PIM

Last of the forwards (alphabetically speaking) is a late-blooming center with size and faceoff skills. He was a go-to guy in college hockey and played with very talented players on his wings, so it’s unlikely to think that the offensive game will follow him to the next level. What we’re getting in VandeVelde is a large body who knows how to exceed in defensive hockey. He’s also a whiz in the faceoff dot, a rarity among Edmonton Oilers in general the last few years. His special talent might even get him noticed by the NHL club before long. Controlled expectations for VandeVelde are:

- Play a full season in the AHL, scoring 30 points on the second/third lines.
- Continue to impress with faceoffs and defensive skills
- Earn a late-season call-up to the Oilers.

Forwards done, we look at the controlled expectations of the defensive crew and goalie corps in the next instalment.

Trading a star, getting a star (in the making) in return

We’re jumping into the Bubbling-Under time machine today, as I hope to find a comparable scenario to aid in the Oilers’ current re-build. I’m of the opinion that with the youth movement in full swing, we should be strongly considering trading off our valuable veteran assets sometime soon. Those being Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky. But the question is, what are they worth on the open market? Fans, those of any team, have the uncanny ability to overvalue their own players’ realistic trade value. It’s just a fact of life. There’s no way either of these two elite forwards get traded for the next Sidney Crosby, so if you’re of the idea that they are maybe you should skip this post and, like the magic 8-ball often tells me, try again later. In this entry, we examine the trade of a superstar just entering his prime, for a prospect that would make any General Manager happy.

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The year is 1995. The New York Rangers were beginning defense of their first Cup title in 54 years. The Quebec Nordiques are no more while my beloved Winnipeg Jets are on life support. Coincidentally, they’ve got a Russian goaltender coming off an injury-marred season (go figure) and will soon depart to wander the desert for 40 years of obscurity and ownership issues.

Our superstar is coming off a similarly disappointing season, playing in only 46 games but eclipsing the point-per-game mark with 50 points. In his first eight years in the NHL, he’s tallied 51 goals twice and has never had a season where he didn’t score 20 goals. He is captain of his hockey club and has helped to deliver them their first (and only) Stanley Cup. But this is a poor Canadian team in a small-market, and they lack the funds to pay their superstar what he is rightfully worth. And so, he holds out for more money or a trade. Joe Nieuwendyk never plays another game for the Calgary Flames, but that doesn’t mean that he still can’t help the franchise that drafted him to succeed for years to come.

On December 19th of 1995, Nieuwendyk is traded to the Dallas Stars, for a player and a pick. Dallas is building towards becoming a Stanley Cup contender, and picking up a veteran superstar in Nieuwendyk is seen as a productive move. It eventually turns out to be one of the best moves in franchise history as he delivers them their first Stanley Cup four years later, with Nieuwendyk taking the 1999 Conn Smythe Trophy honours.

But that doesn’t mean that Dallas got the best of the trade. For in trading for Nieuwendyk, they had to give up one of the most respected hockey players in the current NHL. At the time of the trade, a young Jarome Arthur-Leigh Adekunle Tig Junior Elvis (seriously) Iginla was preparing to star for Team Canada’s U-20 team at the World Junior Championships. Drafted eleventh overall by Dallas in that summer’s NHL entry draft, Iginla was tearing the WHL a new one in his third season of junior hockey. He would go on to score 63 goals in 63 games, totalling an eye-popping 136 points. He would step straight into the NHL the following season, foregoing his final year of junior eligibility to score 50 points for the young Flames. Since then, Jarome Iginla has been Mr. Everything for the Flames organization. Serving as their captain, leading scorer and inspirational leader, Iginla took the Flames to within a disallowed goal of their second Stanley Cup win.

Truly, this is a trade that worked out marvellously for both organizations.

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So what should the Oilers be looking for to bring back the once-popular star for prospects trade? And more important, are our players worth blue-chip prospects?

Let’s start with the devil we know. Ales Hemsky is a sublime hockey player. On most nights he’s worth the price of admission all on his own. An effortless skater with impressive puck skills, elite level playmaking and an underrated wrist shot, Hemsky is a great offensive package. But it doesn’t end there as he is far from a one-dimensional hockey player. He has been coached well from the time he first entered the league that the defensive side of hockey is also of the utmost importance. Hemsky has demonstrated through the years that he is capable of playing tough opposition, which is a valuable commodity on the trading block. He has limited experience in the Stanley Cup playoffs as a direct result of Edmonton’s failure to surround him with talented players, with the exception of the perfect storm that was 2006. Ales Hemsky is worth a blue-chip prospect.

Dustin Penner shares Hemsky’s two-way game, but the similarities really end there. Dustin Penner is Paul Bunyan on skates, a big big man, with big big talent. When he’s on his game, the man from Winkler MB is unstoppable. He’s been favourably compared to Frank Mahovlich when he’s going as he has the speed to drive wide and take the puck to the net. A good shot and average playmaking ability are other qualities that make Penner a star player. Unlike Hemsky, Penner has a Stanley Cup on his resume from his time with the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. He’s sometimes called out for “lazy” or “uninspired” play, which could detract from his overall value in a trade, but I believe Dustin Penner is worth a blue-chip prospect from the right team.
So, that’s two very tradable assets that should garner a blue-chipper in return.

What should the Oilers be looking for?

In my opinion, we should be looking at players 18-21 years old (drafted 2008 or later), likely in the first round or possess first round talent. Preferably not a winger, as we have a couple of our own that are developing at this time. Defence prospects are where I’d look to first, but would probably not turn down a certain center that I’ll get to later. Defence is the area that we are really lacking a stud prospect, and this is the perfect time to address the deficiency. While names like Alex Plante, Jeff Petry and Martin Marincin may have Top-4 upside, the organization really lacks that #1 blueliner-in-the-making that would eventually put our team over the top. It can’t be just any old rearguard, but it needs to be said that we aren’t getting a Doughty/Hedman-type here. I’ve identified a couple of eligible prospects from teams that could be looking at adding an impact player at the trade deadline this year. Because as much as I would like to have Travis Hamonic or Calvin de-Haan, I think someone would be fired on Long Island for agreeing to said trade.

Option 1: Jared Cowan, Ottawa Senators.
Cowan was considered by some to be Victor Hedman’s equal heading into the 2009 NHL draft, before suffering a serious knee injury. But even with that dark spectre hanging over him, the Ottawa Senators just couldn’t let him fall out of the draft’s Top-10, selecting him 9th overall. While seen as more of a shut-down type without much offensive flair, he is a dearly-needed commodity for the Oilers. We haven’t had a player like this since Jason Smith left the fold for greener pastures. He’d fit right in with the young core of players the Oilers currently employ and provide that steadying presence in his own zone while being enough of a puck-mover to find Hall or Paajarvi quickly flying the zone.

Option 2: John Carlson, Washington Capitals.
Drafted 27th overall in 2008, Carlson has already seen time this year with the Capitals and has proven himself a fast learner. Another big body defenseman, Carlson has the ability to play many styles of defense. He beat out another highly touted American defender (more on him later) for a spot on last year’s U-20 team, and broke every Canadian’s heart by scoring the OT golden goal with his rush up the ice and blindly picking his corner. He’s got offensive tools and shut-down capability, a combination that would surely be a welcome addition to the Oilers prospect depth chart. I’m unsure if Washington would be more willing to part with him or 2007 5th overall pick Karl Alzner, but if given the choice, Carlson would be my preference.

Option 3: Nick Leddy, Chicago Blackhawks.
Originally drafted 16th overall by Minnesota in 2009, Leddy was the key cog that sent Cam Barker to the Wild. I don’t have much insight to supply on Leddy other than him being a high draft pick, so take it away hockeysfutures (http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/nick_leddy):

“While many view Leddy as an offensive defenseman, he could potentially blossom into more of a two-way defenseman. His play is equally strong at both ends of the ice. Leddy combines superb offensive prowess with conscientious and responsible defensive zone play. He does an excellent job of taking away time and space from the opposition, and can also create it for both himself and his teammates.
One attribute that makes it all possible is his outstanding skating ability. Leddy is an agile skater with good speed and smoothness in his strides. This can particularly be seen in his transitioning and rushes up the ice. This past summer, Leddy added 15 pounds to his 5'11 frame. The result has enhanced his game tremendously, especially on the physical side”

Sounds like a pretty solid package, albeit in a much smaller form than Cowan or Carlson.

Option 4: John Moore, Columbus Blue Jackets.
John Moore is a player I wanted pretty badly, and was pleading for the Oilers to move up into the first round to take last year. Taken 21st overall, Moore is a sublime skater that combines size with strong positional play and offensive upside. In short, the complete package. Moore would be the perfect match for the Oilers run-and-gun offensive style that hasn’t been seen often enough in these parts for a number of years. With a smooth-skating defenseman a’la Paul Coffey, the new Oilers would have no trouble finding the back of the net.

Option 5: Brandon Gormley, Phoenix Coyotes.
That Brandon Gormley fell all the way to 13th overall in this year’s entry draft is absolutely criminal. Some GMs (specifically the one in his ivory tower overlooking Madison Square Garden) should lose their jobs over this one. Gormley combines all the abilities you want in a defenseman; mobility, size, smarts, defensive awareness and offensive creativity, into a single entity who plays the game with cyborg-like effectiveness. With the Coyotes opening their doors to their top defensive prospect Oliver Ekman-Larson this year, there’s a chance they might be willing to part with Gormley. He’s #1 on my defensive wishlist.

So there we have it, five defensive prospects of interest for the Edmonton Oilers this coming season. I’d be happy with any one of them, but if I had to pick my ideal return for Hemsky or Penner, it’d have to be...

Cody Hodgson, Vancouver Canucks.
It goes a little against the grain to covet another forward, particularly an oft-injured one, especially one who plays for a divisional rival, but to hell with it. Hodgson is everything this team needs to find a zen-like balance up front. He’s only 20 and already he looks like he could be an 80-100 point, defensively responsible center similar to a Joe Sakic or Steve Yzerman. He’s just that good. There are reports he’s not happy with Vancouver’s management for how they’ve handled his injury problems, so maybe there’s a deal to be had here. He’s also played internationally with Jordan Eberle and showed great chemistry with him, so that’s another plus.

Call me crazy all you want, I think Hodgson could be Edmonton’s version of Jarome Iginla. It’s also entirely possible that an addition of any of the five defenseman prospects could prove an equally valuable return for Hemsky or Penner. What I know for sure is that the Edmonton Oilers prospect pipeline could use another infusion of talent, and we have the assets to make it worthwhile to a contending team.

For the right price.