Controlled expectations: Goalies

As promised, the last of the prospects. Let’s hope one of ‘em pans out better than the poor sap tending goal here.

Tyler Bunz G Medicine Hat WHL; 2009/10 stats: 57GP 31-19-5 2.91 0.898

Bunz should hope to continue his development where he left off last season, as the starting goalie for a strong Medicine Hat squadron. His numbers scream “stacked team” to me, because despite a healthy win total, his GAA and SV% aren’t what you’d expect from a quality starter, even in the Dub. Bunz is a large goalie without much draft pedigree, but you’d have to go back awhile to find a goalie drafted by the Oilers that wasn’t signed to an entry-level contract. Expect him to be signed by the end of his junior career no matter how well he’s developed. The difference makers like Emerson Etem are back for another year for the Tigers, and with the addition of Tyler Pitlick Medicine Hat should have the horses to make a push for a lengthy playoff run. Expect Bunz’s win total to be high again because of that, but I’m hoping he improves his underlying numbers considerably if he’s to be anything more than AHL fodder. Controlled expectations for Bunz are:

- Maintain the starting goalie position for the Tigers, playing in 55+ games
- Improve his GAA and SV% to approximately 2.75 and 0.908 respectively.

Bryan Pitton G Stockton/Springfield ECHL/AHL; 2009/10 stats: 22GP 9-9-3 2.85 0.921; 8GP 2-6-0 4.71 0.857

Pitton is playing out the string on his entry-level deal with the Oilers, and seeing as he isn’t fit for AHL competition at this point in his career, there’s not much doubt that he won’t be signing a second contract with the Oilers. Originally a 5th round pick back in 2006 Pitton hasn’t done badly given his draft pedigree, but then again I didn’t expect him to pan out anyway, so it’s not like this should be considered a wasted pick. Stockton was actually a pretty good team last year, but Pitton was behind the undrafted Andrew Perugini for most of the year, a sign of how far down the depth chart he fell. After earning (in other words, we had no other options) his call-up to the AHL, Pitton played like he was in over his head on a truly horrible AHL team. Those numbers are downright ugly. With the off-season acquisition of Martin Gerber (or one of JDD/DD) serving as the workhorse in Oklahoma this year, it appears Pitton will be sent packing to Cali again. Beaches and sun on his off-days while getting paid by an NHL team to occasionally stop a puck, he must be in hell. Controlled expectations for Pitton are:

- Play well enough to entice another professional team into paying him money to stop pucks

Olivier Roy G Cape Breton QMJHL; 2009/10 stats: 54GP 32-21-0 2.62 0.908

I’m kind of worried about Oliver Roy, to tell the truth. Traded to the Acadie-Bathurst Titan in the off-season, Roy has yet to play a game for his new club which is already seven games into its season according to hockeydb. Is he injured? Is he being traded again? Did he lose his starting spot to this guy? Roy is seen as the goalie of the future for this organization in some circles, but he’s got a lot of work ahead of him if he’s going to impress me. He’s been a starting goalie in the Q-league for the past three seasons, so I’m expecting him to dominate in his final season...whenever he starts playing. As an under-sized goalie who relies on sound positioning and reflexes, Roy needs to remain in top-shape to be effective, and sitting in the press-box for an extended period of time isn’t going to help our top goalie prospect. Controlled expectations for Roy are:

- Assume control of the starting goalie position, playing in 50+ games this year
- Continued forward progress in his stats, GAA around 2.50 and SV% of 0.920
- Compete for Team Canada’s goalie tandem for this year’s U-20 tournament.

Controlled Expectations: Blue and Goal

I told you all I’d have the Bubbling Under’s defense and goalie controlled expectations for our prospects up and running, and I’m finally making good on that promise. As earlier, last year’s stats are taken from hockeydb, unless otherwise noted.

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Jordan Bendfeld D Stockton/Springfield ECHL/AHL; 2009/10 stats: 52GP 0-10-10 91PIM, 10GP 0-1-1 7PIM

Jordan hasn’t had a lot of positive press in recent years. He was drafted in 2008 when the Phoenix Coyotes (2006) didn’t sign him to an entry level contract. Many among the Oilogosphere thought it was a waste of a pick, and that Bendfeld would be available to be signed as a free agent after the draft. I think that if the Oilers scouting staff saw something they liked, they made a good decision by taking him. His career path is a bit staggered, due to injury in 2008-09. He came back strong last year and played well in the ECHL, earning a call-up at the end of the AHL season where he didn’t look out of place (he was -2 over his 10-game audition). I think we’ll see some nice things from Bendfeld this year. Controlled expectations for Bendfeld are:

- Play more games in the AHL than the ECHL this year.
- Improve work in the defensive zone, with a respectable plus-minus (-5 on the season in the AHL)
- Score a goal in regular season AHL play.


Kyle Bigos D Merrimack NCAA; 2009/10 stats: 36GP 4-7-11 94PIM

I don’t think Bigos is playing in the right league, to be honest with you, and his 94PIM attest to it. NCAA isn’t a league where rough play is tolerated. He’s also not what you’d call a “freshman” as he began his college career at age 20. His point totals are nice, but not something that should be expected at the next level. He’s said to have a plus slap-shot and is a massive man, but I don’t see much of a player here. Controlled expectations for Bigos are:

- Establish a presence in the Merrimack Top-4 defensemen
- Continue to see ample time on the PP, scoring 7-14-20 over the season.

Taylor Chorney D Springfield/Edmonton AHL/NHL; 2009-10 stats: 32GP 4-9-13 14PIM, 42GP 0-3-3 12PIM

Oh boy. This one’s hard to pick. He’s got the most NHL seasoning among the blueline prospects, but he’s among the least ready for the NHL. I’m convinced there’s an NHL career in him, but he’s going to be a PP-specialist 6-7 guy, and he certainly won’t make his mark in Edmonton. The Oilers have brought in some veteran presence and depth for the AHL club, pushing Chorney mercifully farther down the NHL depth chart. I expect he sees a full season in the AHL unless injuries hit. He’s just not ready to defend in the NHL, and that’s kind of his job description. Controlled expectations for Chorney are:

- Learn to play defence, avoid the abysmal minus-column we’ve seen for the last two years.
- Be one of the premier PP quarterbacks in the AHL, scoring 40 points over a full season
- Push his way back to the top of the Oilers recall list when injuries hit

Brandon Davidson D Regina WHL; 2009/10 stats: 59GP 1-33-34 37PIM

A sixth-round pick from the most recent draft, Davidson is known more for how he came to be playing hockey than for what he does well. He’s going back to a Regina Pats team that, with all respect, will be in tight to avoid looking like last year’s Edmonton Oilers. Davidson is going to have to find another level if he hopes to get Regina into respectability. He’s unique in that he doesn’t have much of a track record, so last year’s impressive stats could either be a fluke or a start of nice things to come. Controlled expectations for Davidson are:

- Continue his development as a two-way defenseman, having one of the best +/- stats on the team and scoring around 40 points.

Troy Hesketh D Minnetonka HS USHS; 2009/10 stats: 24GP 2-15-17 47PIM stats link

I really don’t know what to think of Hesketh. When he was drafted, he was completely unheralded, but we liked the size package. A year after his draft, he hasn’t done much to impress me. He really shouldn’t be thought of as an offensive defender, but you’d expect any significant prospect to put up monster numbers against high-schoolers. He did show good defensively (his +37 was tied for 2nd best on the team), but he actually regressed in his points totals from the previous year. Not what we should like to see from a 3rd rounder. He’s playing for Fargo in the USHL this year, and has committed to the University of Wisconsin next season. Much like Kyle Bigos he’ll be starting his NCAA career at 20, not ideal. Controlled expectations for Hesketh are:

- Have a Jeff Petry-esque season in the USHL, emerging as one of the best defensemen in the league
- Be among his team’s top defensemen in +/-

Martin Marincin D SlovakiaU20 2009/10 stats: 35GP 2-4-6 71PIM stats link

I’m expecting big things from Marincin this year as he transitions to WHL hockey in Prince George. He’s got a good young team to play with, featuring a game-breaking forward in Brett Connolly and another high draft pick in Jesse Forsberg, so I’m expecting he will improve his offensive game while keeping his defensive awareness in check. For some reason, his 2008/09 stats were much better than his 09/10 were. Hopefully there was an underlying issue, and it wasn’t a regression in his offensive game. Controlled expectations for Marincin are:

- A full season of WHL hockey as a Top-4 defenseman
- Strong defensive play while allowing his offensive game to blossom, 35 points from the blueline
- Participate for Team Slovakia in the December U20s.

Johan Motin D Springfield AHL 2009/10 stats: 55GP 1-5-6 33PIM

Johan Motin didn’t have the greatest season in the AHL last year, but it’s important to remember that this was just his 19-year old season. He plays with the presence of a much older player, and I think he’ll be a strong option for the Oilers in the coming years. In coming over last year, Motin left the SEL where he’d played for the previous three seasons (ahem, that’s something similar to what Magnus Paajarvi did, just for comparison). He’s in the mix for the Barons this year, but will have to battle this year to earn a spot on a very veteran-rich blueline. Controlled expectations for Motin are:

- Play a full season of AHL hockey with improved defensive play
- Continue to put up just enough offense to remain relevant in today’s NHL

Jeff Petry D Michigan State NCAA 2009/10 stats: 38GP 4-25-29 26PIM

Petry, considered one of the shiniest gems in our stable of blueline prospects, had a strong bounce-back season with Michigan State. He emerged as a leader on his team, while developing into a shutdown presence and a powerplay quarterback, all in just his Junior season. After a late-season call-up, Petry showed well in the AHL and kept his status as a blue-chip prospect alive. With the expansion Barons this year, it’s really tough to tell where Petry stands on the depth-chart, but expect he’ll get the organizational “leg-up”. Controlled expectations for Petry are:

- A full season of AHL hockey working on his shutdown game
- A constant presence on Oklahoma’s PP, contributing 30 points (5G 25A)

Alex Plante D Springfield AHL 2009/10 stats: 49GP 2-7-9 122PIM

Plante’s stock rose faster than any of Springfield’s D last season. It was public knowledge that Plante was a work-in-progress kind of prospect before last season, but it looks like that project is nearing completion already. Plante spent the entire season in the AHL last year and took on tougher competition as the year went on. He stepped up when the coaches asked and showed more room to grow, earning a call-up when injuries hit hard. He’s a big body and loves to use his size to punish smaller players, and has some offensive upside from junior that has yet to establish itself. Injuries are a HUGE concern for Plante. Controlled expectations are:

- A healthy season in the AHL as one of the Barons top defensemen
- Push for time on the PP, scoring 20 points (3G 17A)
- Be one of the first defensive call-ups to the Oilers

Uh...It’s late. And I have to work at 5:30AM tomorrow morning. Goalies to follow tomorrow. I hope...

Controlled expectations: forward prospects

Having completed my series of NHL controlled expectations, I thought it’d be a good idea to take on the rest of Edmonton’s prospect pool. We have a very diverse group of prospects in the system, and it’s important to not judge them against each other, but rather based on their unique career paths. It’s both impossible and illogical to compare the exploits of Magnus Paajarvi and Anton Lander even though they were on the same team. We can’t point to Lander’s stat lines and then to Paajarvi’s and say that Lander is not as likely to impact the roster at the NHL level. Anton’s defensive responsibility and leadership qualities are as important, perhaps moreso to this particular team than Magnus’ offensive wizardry.

But in order for us to say that our kids are progressing we have to set the bar somewhere, right? That’s where this guideline comes in. Keep in mind that this is only one person’s opinion, but it’s a start. With our three wunderkids already taken care of, I’ll continue with the rest of our forwards today. All stats are taken from www.hockeydb.com except those of Kristians Pelss and William Quist, which take from www.eliteprospects.com

*EDIT: Sonofabitch! I just learned how to hyperlink! That only took two years of reading comments. Damn!

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Cameron Abney RW Everett/Edmonton WHL; 2009/10 stats: 68GP 6-7-13 123PIM

Abney saw his goal total increase by a factor of 6 last year, but we shouldn’t be expecting a meteoric rise this year. We know what we’re going to get in the big man, and that’s fists. I was impressed by his skills in the Oilers rookie tournament, and think we might have a legitimate heavyweight prospect on our hands. The OilKings are still a developing team, so we shouldn’t expect that he’s going to be playing with the best linemates or surrounded by the best team. Controlled expectations for Abney are:

- Play a full season in the WHL, scoring in the range of 20 points.
- Cut down on bad penalties while becoming one of the most feared fighters in the WHL
- Improve skating in order to succeed at the next level

Phillippe Cornet LW Rouyn-Noranda QMJHL; 2009/10 stats: 65GP 28-49-77 32PIM

Cornet actually saw his points-per-game totals fall from last year. He’s a bit hard to project accurately because of this, it’s hard to tell if he’s already hit a wall or whether it was the team that had issues. Reports suggest he isn’t the most reliable two-way player (his +6 was among the worst on his team), so unless he has a career changing epiphany a’la Liam Reddox, we’re looking at an undersized, moderately offensively talented forward here. Controlled expectations for Cornet are:

- Play 40+ games in the AHL, scoring in the range of 20 points.
- Improve his two-way game, +/- within a reasonable range of -5

Drew Czerwonka LW Kootenay WHL; 2009/10 stats: 54GP 4-9-13 106PIM

Willy Wonka and his chocolate factory were picked up this past draft with little fanfare, and that’s a positive for the tough guy from Saskatchewan. Expectations are markedly lower for a 6th round pick than a comparable player-type in Cameron Abney (3rd round the previous year). At 166th overall, Drew is a longshot to make the show but that doesn’t mean it’s not possible. The Kootenay Ice look to be losing a lot of veterans this year, so either the team and Czerwonka take a step back in competition, or they look to Drew to be a team leader and offensive contributor. You know which one I’m betting on. Controlled expectations for Czerwonka are:

- Play a full season of WHL hockey while improving his all-around game
- Score in the range of 20 points with a +/- around -10

Robby Dee C Maine NCAA; 2009/10 stats: 33GP 13-12-25 32PIM

Robby had the kind of year that puts a prospect back on the map. The question is, can he build off this year or is it his high-water mark. Dee will return to Maine for his senior year where the Oilers hope that he proves last year was not a flash in the pan. He’s playing for his contract now, so you’ll expect him to be motivated. Injuries remain a very big concern for the adequately-sized centerman who would only add to the depth at C in the AHL. Controlled expectations for Dee are:

- A full, healthy season for Maine providing a veteran presence on the top-2 lines
- Play with enough passion to earn a contract from the Oilers
- Score at a level on par with last season’s totals

Curtis Hamilton LW Saskatoon WHL; 2009/10 stats: 26GP 7-9-16 6PIM

If Hamilton didn’t have bad luck last year, then he wouldn’t have had any luck at all. Enduring freak injuries one after the other hampered his games-played total, and you’d have to think that he wasn’t 100% healthy in the games he did suit up for. A healthy season is a must in order to sell the expenditure of a 2nd round draft pick to the fanbase. Saskatoon is a perennial Eastern Conference contender with some key pieces set to return to the club, meaning that if Hamilton remains healthy they should challenge once again. Controlled expectations for Hamilton are:

- A relatively healthy year (65 games) and a return of his offensive skills (25 goals, 60 points)
- An invite to Team Canada’s U20 camp would be a bonus
- Continued development of a two-way game to accompany his size, suitable for 3rd line NHL duty

Teemu Hartikainen C/W KalPa SM-Liiga; 2009/10 stats: 53GP 15-18-33 22PIM

The Finnish steamroller makes his way across the Atlantic for this year after completing his nationally required military service. He showed a nice increase in offensive output the 2008/09 campaign, made more impressive because he was serving in the military by day and playing hockey by night. His footspeed has been addressed and is now no longer thought of as a weakness, and his power game is a thing of beauty. I said during one of the Oilers rookie games that his low-post game reminds me a lot of Jaromir Jagr when he was at the peak of his game, and I stand by that. He’s very dominant on his feet and has the hands to turn heads in Oklahoma this year. Controlled expectations for Hartikainen are:

- Play a full season (70+ games) in the AHL, scoring 20 goals.
- Continued work on skating and defensive play, becoming a valuable two-way winger.

Kellen Jones LW Vernon BCHL; 2009/10 stats: 41GP 12-41-53 18PIM

Jones and his twin brother were both 20-year olds last year playing in a low-tier hockey league. Take these stats for what they’re worth, as they don’t imply there’s a lot to get excited about. Truthfully, I’m not expecting much from Jones as he transitions to NCAA hockey. I’m unsure where he’s attending and don’t have a lot of info on this player. Controlled expectations for Jones are:

- Become more recognized for playing hockey

Milan Kytnar C Saskatoon/Vancouver WHL; 2009/10 stats: 45GP 14-26-40 42PIM

Kytnar returned to the WHL this year as both an import and an overager, a lethal combination in Saskatoon, but turned his career around in Vancouver. Just as he was expected to contribute the previous season in Saskatoon, Kytnar was a consistent point producer and shutdown center for the Giants as they made another deep run into the playoffs. He’s not likely to bring much of that offensive game to the pro ranks, but a true shutdown center is always handy to have in the system. Controlled expectations for Kytnar are:

- Be a constant presence in Oklahoma’s lineup, contributing around 30 points
- Continue to excel in a shut-down role while improving faceoff percentages

Anton Lander C Timra SEL; 2009/10 stats: 49GP 7-9-16 14PIM

Stats don’t tell the whole story of Anton Lander. When he was drafted 40th overall in 2009 the words that ran from every scouting report were the same; two-way, defensive, leader. He’s the shut-down 3rd line C of the Oilers future. He may even be captain one day. But for now he returns to Timra where he will continue to develop his already above-average checking and two-way abilities. Let’s hope he scores some too. Controlled expectations for Lander are:

- Take on a leadership role (an A) for Timra, Captain Team Sweden’s U20 squad
- Establish himself as the 2nd line center for Timra, scoring in the neighbourhood of 20 points

Ryan Martindale C Ottawa OHL; 2009/10 stats: 61GP 19-41-60 37PIM

I haven’t much respect for Martindale’s supposed lack of interest from game to game, but if this kid ever gets his head fully into hockey he’ll be fun to watch. He impressed me in the rookie tournament, and I hope he can translate his strong showing into a career year with Ottawa. He’s returning to what looks like a re-building 67s team, as three of the top-5 scorers and three of their best defenders would figure to be moving on. It will fall to Martindale and Tyler Toffoli to pick up the slack offensively. I’m very worried about Martindale’s one-dimensional game, he was the owner of one of the worst +/- stats on the team, and that’s one area that further development is essential. Controlled expectation for Martindale are:

- Establish himself as the #1 center on the 67s, scoring at a point-per-game clip.
- Dedicate himself to becoming a better two-way player (as evidenced by an improved +/-)
- Eliminate “disinterested” and “uninspired” from his scouting report.

Linus Omark W Moscow KHL; 2009/10 stats: 56GP 20-16-36 34PIM

The little engine that could finally makes his way across the Atlantic, and is in tight to secure a roster spot at the NHL level due to the influx of more highly-touted rookies. An impressive training camp might secure him a roster spot, but he’s more likely to spend time in the AHL acclimatizing to the North American game. His game appears quite one-dimensional (the dreaded +/- stat again) but our scouting reports also say that he’s a pesky bugger to knock off the puck. We know he’s the most creative player in the organization since The Hockey Jesus (that’s Rob Schremp for those unfamiliar with the BofA glossary), but like Schremp taught us offensive ability gets your waived to Long Island PDQ. Controlled expectations for Linus Omark are:

- Strong performance in the AHL, scoring at or near a point per game
- At least one call-up to the big club where he does not embarrass himself like Taylor Chorney’s minus-column

Tyler Pitlick C Mankato NCAA; 2009/10 stats: 38GP 11-8-19 27PIM

Pitlick was the only teenager to play anywhere close to a full season for Mankato this season, but is transferring out of college life for the bus-tour of Western Canada. I’ve always seen this kind of direction as meaning he didn’t take well to the educational setting that University is supposed to be about, but I could be wrong here. Pitlick’s game is definitely better suited to the crash and bang of Dub hockey, he was very impressive in the Oilers rookie tournament for both his offensive ability and his physicality. Hockeydb doesn’t list +/- statistics for the NCAA as far as I can tell, so I’m not sure if he was playing in a sheltered role, or getting killed by everyone, or whatever. As a result, his two-way ability is still up in the air, but we’ll know soon enough based on who he’s thrown out against with the Medicine Hat Tigers. He’s going to a team that figures to be strong in the coming year (also featuring 2010 Oilers pick Tyler Bunz and 2010 first round sniper-in-the-making Emerson Etem), so my expectations might be a little high. Controlled expectations for Pitlick are:

- Assume the role of #1 center playing alongside Etem for a full season
- Dominate offensively, posting numbers similar to a 30-50-80 mark.
- Challenge for a spot on Team USA’s U-20 squad

Kristians Pelss LW Riga Juniors Belarus; 2009/10 stats: 46GP 6-3-9 28PIM

He’s coming to Edmonton in the WHL this year, so we’ll be able to get a much better read on this prospect in the coming months. There haven’t been many Latvians to play hockey at the NHL level so the odds are stacked against him, but then again those odds were even higher for Anze Kopitar or that Japanese goaltender the Kings employed a couple seasons ago (Fukufugi?), it can be done. Controlled expectations for Pelss are:
- Play a full season in the WHL
- Score a goal, get credit for an assist.

William Quist LW Nybro (Div1 Sweden); 2009/10 stats: 33GP 10-12-22 44PIM

I have no idea if he’s still Oilers property, but Willy is still apparently playing hockey and I’m as shocked as anyone. His point totals are nothing special, but his size (6’5”) certainly is. Controlled expectations for Quist are:

- To not fall as far off the prospect map as he did last year.

Toni Rajala RW Brandon WHL; 2009/10 stats: 60GP 26-37-63 24PIM

Rajala stats last year came on an absolutely stacked Wheaties team, so take that PPG with a grain of salt please. He also played part of the season through various injuries, so there’s that angle also. Any way you look at it, it’s hard to deduce whether Rajala’s season was a good one or not. He’s returning to Finland this year to complete his required military service, and has already started his season with Ilves of the SM-Liiga with one assist in two games (-2). I expect he’ll have a hard time this year due to his military requirements eating up his down-time, but will still be productive. Controlled expectations for Rajala are:

- Play a full season in the Finnish Elite League on Ilves’ top-two lines, scoring 15-20 goals.
- Manage his time effectively between hockey and military life as Hartikainen did last season
- Be a key piece of Finland’s U-20 team (he was on the top-line last year).

Chris VandeVelde C UND NCAA; 2009/10 stats: 42GP 16-25-41 22PIM

Last of the forwards (alphabetically speaking) is a late-blooming center with size and faceoff skills. He was a go-to guy in college hockey and played with very talented players on his wings, so it’s unlikely to think that the offensive game will follow him to the next level. What we’re getting in VandeVelde is a large body who knows how to exceed in defensive hockey. He’s also a whiz in the faceoff dot, a rarity among Edmonton Oilers in general the last few years. His special talent might even get him noticed by the NHL club before long. Controlled expectations for VandeVelde are:

- Play a full season in the AHL, scoring 30 points on the second/third lines.
- Continue to impress with faceoffs and defensive skills
- Earn a late-season call-up to the Oilers.

Forwards done, we look at the controlled expectations of the defensive crew and goalie corps in the next instalment.

Trading a star, getting a star (in the making) in return

We’re jumping into the Bubbling-Under time machine today, as I hope to find a comparable scenario to aid in the Oilers’ current re-build. I’m of the opinion that with the youth movement in full swing, we should be strongly considering trading off our valuable veteran assets sometime soon. Those being Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky. But the question is, what are they worth on the open market? Fans, those of any team, have the uncanny ability to overvalue their own players’ realistic trade value. It’s just a fact of life. There’s no way either of these two elite forwards get traded for the next Sidney Crosby, so if you’re of the idea that they are maybe you should skip this post and, like the magic 8-ball often tells me, try again later. In this entry, we examine the trade of a superstar just entering his prime, for a prospect that would make any General Manager happy.

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The year is 1995. The New York Rangers were beginning defense of their first Cup title in 54 years. The Quebec Nordiques are no more while my beloved Winnipeg Jets are on life support. Coincidentally, they’ve got a Russian goaltender coming off an injury-marred season (go figure) and will soon depart to wander the desert for 40 years of obscurity and ownership issues.

Our superstar is coming off a similarly disappointing season, playing in only 46 games but eclipsing the point-per-game mark with 50 points. In his first eight years in the NHL, he’s tallied 51 goals twice and has never had a season where he didn’t score 20 goals. He is captain of his hockey club and has helped to deliver them their first (and only) Stanley Cup. But this is a poor Canadian team in a small-market, and they lack the funds to pay their superstar what he is rightfully worth. And so, he holds out for more money or a trade. Joe Nieuwendyk never plays another game for the Calgary Flames, but that doesn’t mean that he still can’t help the franchise that drafted him to succeed for years to come.

On December 19th of 1995, Nieuwendyk is traded to the Dallas Stars, for a player and a pick. Dallas is building towards becoming a Stanley Cup contender, and picking up a veteran superstar in Nieuwendyk is seen as a productive move. It eventually turns out to be one of the best moves in franchise history as he delivers them their first Stanley Cup four years later, with Nieuwendyk taking the 1999 Conn Smythe Trophy honours.

But that doesn’t mean that Dallas got the best of the trade. For in trading for Nieuwendyk, they had to give up one of the most respected hockey players in the current NHL. At the time of the trade, a young Jarome Arthur-Leigh Adekunle Tig Junior Elvis (seriously) Iginla was preparing to star for Team Canada’s U-20 team at the World Junior Championships. Drafted eleventh overall by Dallas in that summer’s NHL entry draft, Iginla was tearing the WHL a new one in his third season of junior hockey. He would go on to score 63 goals in 63 games, totalling an eye-popping 136 points. He would step straight into the NHL the following season, foregoing his final year of junior eligibility to score 50 points for the young Flames. Since then, Jarome Iginla has been Mr. Everything for the Flames organization. Serving as their captain, leading scorer and inspirational leader, Iginla took the Flames to within a disallowed goal of their second Stanley Cup win.

Truly, this is a trade that worked out marvellously for both organizations.

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So what should the Oilers be looking for to bring back the once-popular star for prospects trade? And more important, are our players worth blue-chip prospects?

Let’s start with the devil we know. Ales Hemsky is a sublime hockey player. On most nights he’s worth the price of admission all on his own. An effortless skater with impressive puck skills, elite level playmaking and an underrated wrist shot, Hemsky is a great offensive package. But it doesn’t end there as he is far from a one-dimensional hockey player. He has been coached well from the time he first entered the league that the defensive side of hockey is also of the utmost importance. Hemsky has demonstrated through the years that he is capable of playing tough opposition, which is a valuable commodity on the trading block. He has limited experience in the Stanley Cup playoffs as a direct result of Edmonton’s failure to surround him with talented players, with the exception of the perfect storm that was 2006. Ales Hemsky is worth a blue-chip prospect.

Dustin Penner shares Hemsky’s two-way game, but the similarities really end there. Dustin Penner is Paul Bunyan on skates, a big big man, with big big talent. When he’s on his game, the man from Winkler MB is unstoppable. He’s been favourably compared to Frank Mahovlich when he’s going as he has the speed to drive wide and take the puck to the net. A good shot and average playmaking ability are other qualities that make Penner a star player. Unlike Hemsky, Penner has a Stanley Cup on his resume from his time with the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. He’s sometimes called out for “lazy” or “uninspired” play, which could detract from his overall value in a trade, but I believe Dustin Penner is worth a blue-chip prospect from the right team.
So, that’s two very tradable assets that should garner a blue-chipper in return.

What should the Oilers be looking for?

In my opinion, we should be looking at players 18-21 years old (drafted 2008 or later), likely in the first round or possess first round talent. Preferably not a winger, as we have a couple of our own that are developing at this time. Defence prospects are where I’d look to first, but would probably not turn down a certain center that I’ll get to later. Defence is the area that we are really lacking a stud prospect, and this is the perfect time to address the deficiency. While names like Alex Plante, Jeff Petry and Martin Marincin may have Top-4 upside, the organization really lacks that #1 blueliner-in-the-making that would eventually put our team over the top. It can’t be just any old rearguard, but it needs to be said that we aren’t getting a Doughty/Hedman-type here. I’ve identified a couple of eligible prospects from teams that could be looking at adding an impact player at the trade deadline this year. Because as much as I would like to have Travis Hamonic or Calvin de-Haan, I think someone would be fired on Long Island for agreeing to said trade.

Option 1: Jared Cowan, Ottawa Senators.
Cowan was considered by some to be Victor Hedman’s equal heading into the 2009 NHL draft, before suffering a serious knee injury. But even with that dark spectre hanging over him, the Ottawa Senators just couldn’t let him fall out of the draft’s Top-10, selecting him 9th overall. While seen as more of a shut-down type without much offensive flair, he is a dearly-needed commodity for the Oilers. We haven’t had a player like this since Jason Smith left the fold for greener pastures. He’d fit right in with the young core of players the Oilers currently employ and provide that steadying presence in his own zone while being enough of a puck-mover to find Hall or Paajarvi quickly flying the zone.

Option 2: John Carlson, Washington Capitals.
Drafted 27th overall in 2008, Carlson has already seen time this year with the Capitals and has proven himself a fast learner. Another big body defenseman, Carlson has the ability to play many styles of defense. He beat out another highly touted American defender (more on him later) for a spot on last year’s U-20 team, and broke every Canadian’s heart by scoring the OT golden goal with his rush up the ice and blindly picking his corner. He’s got offensive tools and shut-down capability, a combination that would surely be a welcome addition to the Oilers prospect depth chart. I’m unsure if Washington would be more willing to part with him or 2007 5th overall pick Karl Alzner, but if given the choice, Carlson would be my preference.

Option 3: Nick Leddy, Chicago Blackhawks.
Originally drafted 16th overall by Minnesota in 2009, Leddy was the key cog that sent Cam Barker to the Wild. I don’t have much insight to supply on Leddy other than him being a high draft pick, so take it away hockeysfutures (http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/nick_leddy):

“While many view Leddy as an offensive defenseman, he could potentially blossom into more of a two-way defenseman. His play is equally strong at both ends of the ice. Leddy combines superb offensive prowess with conscientious and responsible defensive zone play. He does an excellent job of taking away time and space from the opposition, and can also create it for both himself and his teammates.
One attribute that makes it all possible is his outstanding skating ability. Leddy is an agile skater with good speed and smoothness in his strides. This can particularly be seen in his transitioning and rushes up the ice. This past summer, Leddy added 15 pounds to his 5'11 frame. The result has enhanced his game tremendously, especially on the physical side”

Sounds like a pretty solid package, albeit in a much smaller form than Cowan or Carlson.

Option 4: John Moore, Columbus Blue Jackets.
John Moore is a player I wanted pretty badly, and was pleading for the Oilers to move up into the first round to take last year. Taken 21st overall, Moore is a sublime skater that combines size with strong positional play and offensive upside. In short, the complete package. Moore would be the perfect match for the Oilers run-and-gun offensive style that hasn’t been seen often enough in these parts for a number of years. With a smooth-skating defenseman a’la Paul Coffey, the new Oilers would have no trouble finding the back of the net.

Option 5: Brandon Gormley, Phoenix Coyotes.
That Brandon Gormley fell all the way to 13th overall in this year’s entry draft is absolutely criminal. Some GMs (specifically the one in his ivory tower overlooking Madison Square Garden) should lose their jobs over this one. Gormley combines all the abilities you want in a defenseman; mobility, size, smarts, defensive awareness and offensive creativity, into a single entity who plays the game with cyborg-like effectiveness. With the Coyotes opening their doors to their top defensive prospect Oliver Ekman-Larson this year, there’s a chance they might be willing to part with Gormley. He’s #1 on my defensive wishlist.

So there we have it, five defensive prospects of interest for the Edmonton Oilers this coming season. I’d be happy with any one of them, but if I had to pick my ideal return for Hemsky or Penner, it’d have to be...

Cody Hodgson, Vancouver Canucks.
It goes a little against the grain to covet another forward, particularly an oft-injured one, especially one who plays for a divisional rival, but to hell with it. Hodgson is everything this team needs to find a zen-like balance up front. He’s only 20 and already he looks like he could be an 80-100 point, defensively responsible center similar to a Joe Sakic or Steve Yzerman. He’s just that good. There are reports he’s not happy with Vancouver’s management for how they’ve handled his injury problems, so maybe there’s a deal to be had here. He’s also played internationally with Jordan Eberle and showed great chemistry with him, so that’s another plus.

Call me crazy all you want, I think Hodgson could be Edmonton’s version of Jarome Iginla. It’s also entirely possible that an addition of any of the five defenseman prospects could prove an equally valuable return for Hemsky or Penner. What I know for sure is that the Edmonton Oilers prospect pipeline could use another infusion of talent, and we have the assets to make it worthwhile to a contending team.

For the right price.

Controlled Expectations: Jordan Eberle

Of the three uber prospects set to make their Oilers debuts this year, Jordan Eberle may be our best shot at the Calder Trophy, says one astute magazine editor.

...

With all apologies to THN, I think they’re completely out to lunch here. Jordan Eberle may be a hockey hero in most of Canada, but his expectations need to be seriously curtailed or this kid’s in for one hell of a backlash from Oilerdom.

Desjardins’ NHLe: 22-24-46
Lowetide RE: 12-17-29
THN: 25-34-59

If Sesame Street taught me just one thing as a developing child, it's that “One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just doesn’t belong....”

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That’s quite a remarkable spread in point totals among three expert opinions. Honestly, I don’t know how THN arrived at this number, but let’s for argument’s sake try and make a case for Eberle’s Calder-winning season. He’s going to have to come up rolling sevens in a couple of areas, but some are easily obtained given his position.

The next Canadian hockey hero™ comes to the Oilers organization in what could be a perfect storm, having little competition for a spot as the #2RW right out of the gates. If we all assume (correctly) that Ales Hemsky is this team’s #1RW, then it would appear that Eberle would be battling only Gilbert Brule for the second spot on the port-side. Brule can also play center and, at this point, can play it much better than the other option for the #3 slot (Andrew Cogliano), so very well might end up there. Leaving Eberle with virtually no competition for his roster spot. Not the greatest decision by upper management IMO as I feel that each rookie on this team should have to play their way on to the team. It’s what all the smartly run teams do after all. You wouldn’t see Detroit handing a 20-year old a roster spot. Oh no. They’ll bury him in the minors for two years (partly due to cap restrictions, mind), bringing him up to light up the playoffs, to have their hand forced in year three because he’s just too damn good to be left off the NHL roster.

...In case anyone missed it, that’s the career path of Darren Helm. Forgive me my Manitoba homerism, but it’s a development path I wish was followed more regularly.

Ahem... Eberle. Right.

Getting back on topic, not only is Eberle the right positional player coming into the organization at the right time, he’s also the right player-type, and that may go a long way to seeing him succeed. I think it’s safe to say all of Canada has “seen this kid good”, to coin a Lowetide. His knack for scoring big-goals, Sidney-Crosby-big-goals, was well documented the last two Christmases. The 50 he potted for an absolutely abysmal Regina Pats team last year is also nothing to laugh at. Fact is, the Oilers need all the goal scorers they can get, and Eberle has that sneaky talent to go un-noticed in the offensive zone and find the soft areas where you just know a player of Gagner’s cerebral talents is going to find him. If he can show that he’s more than just a junior-level scorer he might well pot THN’s expected 25 goals this season on pure talent alone.

Also to his credit, we can pretty safely scratch the nagging “let’s see how he handles a man’s game” off our list of concerns. Point-per game as an 18-year old, and follow that up by blowing past that mark as a 19-year old has me eating my previous words. This kid doesn’t have anything left to prove at the AHL level.

Some concerns however, are still real and waiting until the NHL season starts. Among them are his size, footspeed, and the dreaded “London Knights Correction Factor”.

For all that his legacy to date is, Eberle remains 5’10”, undersized for the NHL. It’s been overcome before, Martin St. Louis fans are quick to point out to anyone who looks their way, let alone feigns interest. But for every St. Louis, there are those like Nigel Dawes, Wacey Rabbit, Colten Yellowhorn, et cetera. Sublime junior talents with small statures all, yet they don’t exactly remind me of an NHL star. Make no bones about it; Eberle will not be able to get by as easily in the NHL because of his lack of size. In addition he lacks another talent that makes St. Louis one of the most memorable “minute men” of NHL history, that final gear. It’s never mentioned that skating is a weakness for Eberle, but like Gagner it ain’t a strength either. He won’t be able to catch NHL defenseman flat-footed, and that’s been a hallmark of St. Louis throughout his career.

Eberle might not be affected by the LKCF in the traditional sense, but it’s a legitimate concern of mine anyway. There’s no evidence to suggest Eberle was fed large amount of minutes because we lack the necessary data to track this, so this is all speculation. Eberle was a big fish (think Julianna and the Medicine Fish) in a small pond during his junior career, and his point totals might have been inflated as a result. Even-strength, PP, PK, Eberle did it all. With only the emerging Jordan Weal to provide complimentary offense, this team was geared around Eberle, I imagine it was kind of like watching the Atlanta Thrashers play Kovalchuk. So with no other options, there’s little doubt in my mind that Regina’s coach would throw Eberle over the boards as often as he could in order to salvage some wins the past couple seasons. I seriously question his point totals as a result, and wouldn’t be surprised if the former junior superstar comes crashing back to earth this year.

So with all that said, what do I think is a respectable, controlled set of expectations for Jordan Eberle? I had to re-think this since my post about where to slot the kids about a month ago. Given the expectation that Eberle will be the de-facto #2RW on this team, I have to defer closer to Desjardins’ estimate when it comes to point totals than Lowetide’s RE. Special teams play will be hard to come by for Eberle this year I believe, due to some Czech dude hogging all the ice time. I keed. Anyways, here’s what I think is a reasonable set of expectations for Eberle this year:

-Play in 70 games, posting 20-18-38
- +/- somewhere in the region of -15
-Consistent effort all season long while maintaining his position on the RW depth chart
-Establish himself as a mainstay on the #2PP unit

Forcing coach Renney to scale back on Hemsky’s stranglehold on the #1PP would be considered exceeding expectations, as would any sign of a developing two-way game.

Controlled Expectations: Magnus Paajarvi

Next up in my segment of Controlled Expectations is the player I’m most excited about for this upcoming season.

Desjardins’ NHLe: 16-22-38
Lowetide RE: 12-18-30
THN: 13-19-32

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At 6’1” and nearing 200lbs, Magnus Paajarvi-(Svensson?) is the most physically mature of the impact rookies vying for a spot on this year’s Edmonton Oilers roster. His combination of size and speed make him a very attractive package. Indeed, he was one of the fastest skaters in the 2009 draft class and if not for the “Fall for Hall” this year, we’d be looking at him as the de-facto #1 prospect in the organization.

Fast forward one calendar year, and I’m not exactly forecasting a sunny-day rookie season for Magnum P.I. Unfortunately, I’m of the belief he gets the shaft this year when the line combinations are drawn up, and this will have serious negative impact on his point totals.

In order to gain perspective on my position, let’s list the available wingers for this year’s Edmonton Oilers, sorted by position as per THN’s fantasy guide:

LW: Penner, Hall, Paajarvi, Omark, Jacques, Jones, Giroux
RW: Hemsky, Eberle, Stortini

Now, this isn’t exactly how the wingers are being portrayed in the magazine of record. THN somehow missed the fact that they’ve listed Paajarvi as a LW and #3 on their Oilers Top-10 prospects list located immediately beside their proposed depth chart, preferring to slot him as the #3 RW. But let’s pretend we didn’t see that, shall we? Shoddy research is sometimes a hallmark of deadlines, so we’ll forgive them their folly. The reality I want to point out still shines clear. There’s a crazy log-jam of talent at the LW position on this hockey club, and Paajarvi’s the third-best available talent within that dogpile. What’s unfortunate here is that means he’s likely going to be this year’s Andrew Cogliano. Talent level way above the garbage you have to drag around, and looking for all the world like Edmonton’s next scapegoat. It really is a shame.

This is the main reason why I’ve previously stated that Paajarvi would be best served playing his 19-year old year in Sweden, but I don’t want to rehash old literature (http://bubbling-under.blogspot.com/2010/07/forward-depth-charts-and-what-to-do.html). He might be ready for the NHL, but we don’t have a place for him to play comfortably, IMO. If he’s not playing with similar offensive talents, I believe we’re not utilizing him to his potential. I wasn’t a fan of sticking Hemsky on the 4th line when he began his career, and I won’t be changing my mind about this type of development anytime soon. Development of Top-6 talent should be the purview of minor-pro teams until they’re ready to assume Top-6 roles on the NHL team. Now, with that said, I fully understand that injuries happen and the likelihood of Paajarvi playing Top-6 minutes in the NHL this year is remarkably high due to the voodoo up in the rafters of Rexall (seriously, how else do you explain the freakishly large number of man games lost to injury the past three seasons?), but should we realistically be burning a year of his entry-level contract to sell tickets this year? Hell no. That’s what Hall’s for. We have heard all along from Tambellini that we don’t want to rush our prospects. For examples of this logic, see the extensive list of interviews we’ve had on the subject of Eberle, Jordan. Stick to the 5-year plan guys.

Getting back on topic, we’re here talking about what kind of things we should realistically expect from Magnus Paajarvi for this coming season. I’ll assume (grudgingly) that Paajarvi makes the team out of TC and remains on the roster for the season’s duration.

Like the post regarding Hall, both linemates and special-teams ice-time will play a major role in determining Paajarvi’s final point totals for the season. As stated earlier, Paajarvi would figure to line up as the #3 LW this year. Depending on how Renney decides to run his bench, this means he’ll either be part of a checking line, centered by Horcoff, or a second soft-minute line likely centered by Brule or Cogliano. His RW is completely up in the air at this point, but suffice to say if he’s playing with Stortini for any length of time, he’s not going to be putting up big numbers.

The second factor, his involvement in special teams could be where Paajarvi makes hay this year. Given the options placed at Renney’s feet, Paajarvi seems to be a prime candidate for both PP and PK duties this year. His speed coming off the wing would figure to be an asset on the powerplay in gaining the zone, and while his scouting reports don’t leave me exactly enamoured with his offensive abilities, I think he could do a better job than what we were putting out there last year on the second unit (have Nilsson or O’Sullivan even found NHL employment yet?). His size could also be effective in front of the net on the second PP unit as well, though I haven’t seen anything to suggest that’s where he’s played on the PP before. Penalty-kill would seem to marry well with Paajarvi’s unique talents. He’s got the speed to cover the point. A documented background as a defenseman would also serve his defensive awareness and positioning well. He’s also long enough that his stick would easily get into most shooting lanes.

So what exactly should we expect from Paajarvi this season, especially if he’s not going to be part of a scoring line? That’s where I really start to get curious about what this youngster can bring to our team. He’s shown to be incredibly capable of playing a man’s game, as evidenced by playing in the SEL (a very tough Euro league) since he was freaking 15, and his recent performance for his national team at the World Hockey Championships where he was named to the All-Star team. Whereas Hall and Eberle are coming in as fresh-faced kids, I think we’ll see Paajarvi come in and perform like a veteran by comparison. I expect we’ll see a much more complete game from the smooth skating Swede, and he won’t be shying away from any of the dangerous areas in NHL rinks. He’s more physically mature than Eberle and Hall and though I believe he might have some initial trouble adjusting to the more physical style of mens hockey in North America, it’ll all be sorted out before the season ends.

However, due to his position on the depth chart, I think expectations should be curtailed to avoid disappointment. This year, I’d like to see Paajarvi:

-Prove he belongs in the NHL as a 19-year old (no “loans” to Sweden’s WJC team)
-Firmly establish himself on the #2PP unit and an option for the PK
-Play in 65 games, scoring 10-15-25 with a +/- in the ballpark of -5

Pushing for time in the Top-6 this year will be considered a real accomplishment for the budding star winger.