2011 Draft POI: Jesse Forsberg

Jesse Forsberg is another draft-eligible player who could be on the radar of the Edmonton Oilers scouting staff. He’s toiling for the Prince George Cougars of the WHL, the same team 2010 2nd round pick Martin Marincin is currently starring for.

Listed at roughly 6’0 194 pounds make him a solidly built developing defensive defenseman. Born in mid-August is going to make him one of the youngest draft-eligible players for the 2011 draft, so there’s hope he’ll still be able to add a couple of inches onto his frame at some point.

He’s not really known for his offensive instincts, though he put up a respectable 16 points in his rookie season in the Dub. His point totals this year (1-2-3) are somewhat of a letdown from last year thusfar, but the offensive production from the back end is being more than adequately addressed by the aforementioned Marincin (6-9-15) and the previously unknown-to-me Sena Acolatse (5-10-15). Maybe he’s been asked to focus more on his defensive play.

Certainly one of the strengths of Forsberg’s game is as a policeman. He has a deceptive left hand and a willingness to get his mitts off (13 listed fights over the last two years). He’s also a leader on his team (assistant captain at 17) and comes from a family where hockey appears to be a mainstay. Jesse was selected 11th overall in the 2008 WHL bantam draft only to be beaten out numerically by his brother Alex (a center) who went 1st overall to the Cougars this past May.

The elder Forsberg (no Swedish connection) has started to garner some interest around draft junkie circles, his game has already been critiqued here and here. In an interview before the 2009/10 season (Jesse’s rookie season in the Dub) he described his offensive instincts and his physical game as his strengths, while admitted he had to work hard on his footwork and improve his ability to read the developing play. Reports this year suggest he’s improving his two-way game, and adding that leadership role to his game.

Early projections for the 2011 draft class are still sketchy, but Forsberg has himself pretty highly rated going into the season. In THN’s Major Junior preview issue, Forsberg is listed as the 6th ranked player from the WHL (fine offensive player doesn’t shy away), nestled between Michael St-Croix and Ty Rattie. Others (the second “here” link) have him projected as the 45th ranked player. If he’s around in the second round, he might be a player of interest to the Oilers.

Why would the Oilers be looking at this player type? Well, the prospect pool does lack leadership, especially from the blueline. His physicality is missing in the pipeline since the graduation of Theo Peckham. Offense from the blueline is always a valuable commodity for the Oilers. His average size may hold him back, but if he can pack on another ten or so pounds before the draft combine, he’ll be among the most physical players available in the 2011 draft.

Given the tools, I’d say he’d be a good pick-up for the 2nd-3rd round if available.

2011 Draft POI: Shane Prince

The Ottawa 67s appear to this observer to be a legitimate force in the OHL this year. Five players are currently performing at a point-per-game pace through nine games. Their leading scorer however is not the highly touted Tyler Toffoli, a recent second-round pick of the LA Kings. It is also not Oilers 3rd round pick Ryan Martindale. He is unheralded Shane Prince, a 5’11” forward with a late 1992 birthday and forcing his way into the minds of scouts for the upcoming NHL draft. Currently torching the OHL for 17 points he’s tied for 4th in league scoring.

Prince should be a player of interest (POI) for the Oilers in the coming months. His statistics read a little oddly, as the OHL website has him playing in 104 regular season games last season, but we’ll ignore that. Taking just his point totals from Ottawa last year (he was traded from Kitchener) he was a 15-15-30 man but looks well on his way to eclipsing those totals this year.

The early buzz on Prince is mostly positive, with a couple mentions of his high level of competiveness, something I like to see in a prospect. He’s playing on the 1-line with Toffoli and Cody Lindsay (9 games 10 points) so he’s sure to get every opportunity to increase his offensive skills.

He’s going to need to put in a lot of work this year in order to convince NHL scouts that he’s a one-trick pony. His +/- last year was absolutely horrible on a strong 67s team. Of the top 14 skaters in terms of points, he was the only one in the red. He’s currently leading the 67s in +/- this year, but that could be as much a factor of his improved quality of linemates (they’re +3 and +5) as it is improved two-way play. If he wants to take the next step he’s going to have to show commitment to the defensive side of hockey, something I thought he’d have shown given his alleged tenacity and high compete level.

As it stands now Shane Prince would make a good mid-round selection for the Oilers. He could be nicked a couple of points because of his small size and the fact he’s a LW doesn’t make him an ideal player type for the Oilers, but he could bring another offensive dimension to the prospect pool. Continued offensive production combined with further growth of his two-way game, and he could be quickly climbing the draft lists.

I’d bet on the Oilers getting a good look at him this year as their scouts already have a reason to attend 67s games in scouting Ryan Martindale’s progress. Here’s hoping Prince performs when they’re in the building.

A case for giving Hall a birds-eye view

Here's Taylor Hall, in a situation I saw a lot of in tonight's game.

Taylor Hall has now played three NHL contests, to varying degrees of success. He’s gotten his feet wet playing on a line with the team’s new captain and fellow super-rookie Jordan Eberle. After these three games the team is a respectable 2-1, and Hall has recorded his first NHL point, an assist in the Oilers’ second game of the year. Unfortunately, he’s starting to show some habits.

Bad habits.

Habits that must be addressed sooner rather than later.

Before today’s contest with the Minnesota Wild, his line-mate and mentor Shawn Horcoff had this to say:

His shifts are too long... And he has to come back deeper for the puck to open up more ice. You have to overwork to get more ice. He's taking off (too quickly) and the defencemen are right there, but that's the NHL. These things will come. He wants it so badly, he stays out there because he wants it...

It’s a harsh reality for the Oilers first rounder, but it’s also truth. Sportsnet had a graphic up before tonight’s game showing Hall’s shift-times were the highest among Oilers (50 seconds per). Not just among forwards mind, this is team-wide. More than our established first-line players and even the defensemen. That’s kind of shocking.

He cut back on his shift-times today to a more respectable 45-seconds per, which is a start in the right direction. He has to show commitment to working within his limits and taking an active approach to reigning in his shift-times is a good first step.

On to the second part of Horcoff’s constructive criticism, his tendency to fly the zone was very noticeable in today’s game, particularly in the third period. I recall one such defensive series where he did it on two occasions, only to watch Eberle’s attempted home-run pass get gobbled-up at the blueline for a 5-bell scoring chance. He’s seemingly gunning for the neutral zone as soon as a teammate gains possession of the puck, hoping for an offensive chance of his own. What he has to realize at the NHL level is that possession of the puck does not always equal a change in offensive possession, a near mathematical impossibility in fact, with Edmonton’s current defensive corps playing as it has been. His lack of commitment to ensuring the opposing threat has been eliminated is creating odd-man chances against on a nightly basis, and Hall must be made to see his failures in this area if he is to succeed.

Let’s be honest here. Taylor Hall, for all his bells and whistles, is still a teenager. We all know he’s going to make the inevitable mistake and there isn’t much we can do about it. I’ll freely take the good with the bad provided he remains on his learning curve. But like my parents always said, you have to learn from your mistakes. And tonight it became apparent that either Hall is doomed to repeat some mistakes several times, or he’s turning a deaf ear to his captain and linemate. He was flying the zone tonight exactly as was addressed before the game.

So maybe he’s not one to learn from his mistakes. How else can the coaching staff get the message across to Hall that he can’t be thinking offense before his team has gained full possession of the puck?

My solution is hinging on the possibility that he’s more of a visual learner. Maybe it’s time to sit Taylor Hall in the press-box for a game.

Some of you may feel it’s too early in the season to already be so down on Hall’s play. Some of you might be right. It is early, I understand that, but it’s never too early to instil proper practices in our future franchise player. He shouldn’t view the press-box as a demotion, more of a learning tool to help him understand how our veteran players continue to (sort-of) thrive in the NHL. He could learn a lot from watching Horcoff, Hemsky and Penner’s defensive zone presence from upstairs. Hell, I’ve never played a game of organized hockey higher than house-league myself but I think that from watching Horcoff et al. for the last five years I’ve got the gist of how to properly execute a defensive-zone breakout if I’d need the skill.

The press-box duty is also a way of delaying judgement on his 9-game tryout. Not that I’m advocating for his banishment to Windsor, but it’s still technically an option if by the end of his 9th game he’s gone 0-1-1 for -10. Press-box duty for a game (or two, situation depending) would be a much better idea than sending him back to junior. The PR nightmare alone for sending the 1st Overall back to junior would be unbelievable.

Taylor Hall will one day be a great-to-elite level hockey player in the NHL. But maybe he’d learn a thing or two from a birds-eye view on Saturday.

Prospect statistics - September

This is something I’d been meaning to do a couple of days ago, but certain things (illness, bachelor party, subsequent second illness) have conspired against me. But no longer, so here I present Bubbling-Under’s September prospect statistics.

A word of warning; these stats have been compiled by a fan. This isn’t by any means definitive. This is a tool to be used by similar-minded fans to grade our prospects. Also, the CHL websites are absolutely horrible this year for personal stats-tracking applications such as this. I’ve done the best I can, and hope that in the future I can get by using eliteprospects.com for the CHL and AHL prospects.

With all that said, on to the stats. The three CHL leagues are under way, and our two prospects in the Elite Leagues in Europe have been under way for more than half a month now. I’m still awaiting word on the USHL and NCAA season openers, while the AHL and ECHL will be underway in about a week’s time.

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Cameron Abney: 3GP 0-0-0 -3 0PIM

For a fighter trying to become a well-rounded hockey player, he hasn’t done a whole hell of a lot of...well anything. A disappointing September.

Drew Czerwonka: 2GP 0-0-0 -2 4PIM

Another pugilist, but at least he’s putting up a couple of PIMs. I didn’t come into this year expecting much, so at least he’s meeting expectations.

Curtis Hamilton: 2GP 0-2-2 -2 2PIM

A solid start to the season for Hamilton, and he’s still healthy. Both are positives. Better work on that minus-column however.

Anton Lander: 5GP 0-3-3 +1 6 PIM 8 shots 89:03TOI

This is why I love eliteprospects. More stats for me to play around with and use for interpretation. Lowetide is using the top corner of his site as a shrine to Lander and his FO%. A great start to the season offensively for Lander, who is currently holding down the 3C spot for Timra and is an assistant captain.

Ryan Martindale: 2GP 0-2-2 0 2PIM

I’d hoped that Martindale would be able to be an offensive leader on this team, and he’s showing he’s fully capable of it. Here’s hoping his compete level remains high all season.

Tyler Pitlick: 1GP 0-0-0 -1 0PIM

It’s a one game sample size. Not much can be said here.

Kristians Pelss: 3GP 0-0-0 -2 4PIM

Again, a player who is coming in without expectations. Judging from his stat-line, he’s adjusting.

Toni Rajala: 4GP 1-2-3 -1 0PIM 19shots 56:19TOI

This is a nice stat line, but it must be stressed that Ilves played 7 games in September with Rajala missing the last three. That’s cause for concern. Is it injury or military? I really don’t know.

Jeremie Blain: 2GP 0-1-1 0 2PIM 5 hits

The Q is currently lapping the field in terms of CHL websites. He also has two shots, none on goal.

Brandon Davidson: 3GP 0-0-0 0 7PIM

His point totals are down from last year, but there’s no Eberle in Regina either. He looks to be holding his own defensively without Colten Teubert.

Martin Marincin: 2GP 1-0-1 0 11PIM

We’re seeing both offensive acumen and feistiness from the big Slovak. Both are qualities I like in big defensemen.

Tyler Bunz: 1GP 0.84SV% 2.90GAA

It’s one game. I’m not looking too far into these poor stats until we get a reasonable sample size.

Olivier Roy: 0GP

Acadie-Bathurst played three games in September with no sniff of Roy. Cause for concern? I think so.

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Those are the prospects who have had their seasons begin. In the months to come, I plan on updating these stats to compile season totals, while still providing monthly totals. My hope in doing this is to provide proof that a player’s stats may or may not be “sustainable” or just the product of a couple hot months.

I’ve also plans to compile these stats for some of the top upcoming draft prospects. If you have any input on whether I should attempt this, or have a specific prospect in mind for me to track please don’t hesitate to ask.