Controlled Expectations: Taylor Hall

This is the first instalment of what I like to call “controlled expectations” for our Edmonton Oilers prospects. In saying this, I hope to provide a reasonable framework for each documented player to meet my expectations for this year. I’ll be calling on previously written expectations available both online and in print media to compare and contrast my thinking. As usual, Lowetide provides the gold standard in NHLer “Reasonable Expectations”, but I’ll also be comparing and contrasting those of THN’s annual Fantasy Projections which hit stores a couple weeks ago.

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Taylor Hall is an eighteen year old “man”. I want to stress that he will be an elite hockey player (barring injuries, *knocks on wood*) during his career, but it won’t be the case yet. This is not Alex Ovechkin folks. He might give us flashes of the Great 8 with his powerful skating and physical play, but I haven’t seen the off-the-charts offensive instincts that the Russian displays.

Desjardins’ NHLe: 17-29-46
Lowetide RE: 20-20-40
THN: 22-31-53

As shown by these other projections, the rookie season of Taylor Hall could go a number of ways, and it depends on a couple of factors.

Ice time: Such a statistic is not measured in junior hockey, but it would be wise to assume that due to the strength of his junior team, we should not subject Hall to the “London Knights Correction Factor”. If he were the only offensive weapon on his team (like Seguin), I would have expected his counting numbers to be inflated due to increased ice-time. As it is, we’re left wondering if Hall’s point total could have been even higher if he were a power-play minute hog.

If you’re not familiar with Desjardins NHLe, it is a wonderful tool to predict offensive production from one league to another. Hall’s CHL point total is run through a correction factor and averaged out over an 82-game schedule to provide a comparison metric with a high probability of accuracy.

In Edmonton, as in Windsor, he won’t be the feature forward. This makes Hall’s NHLe prediction seem plausible as he’ll likely be playing behind Dustin Penner, both at even strength and on the powerplay. It’s almost a given that he’ll be given every opportunity to look good and be given plenty of ice-time by the organization. In fact, I won’t be surprised if by the end of the year Hall will be atop the Oilers’ all-time rookie minutes list LT puts out every year.

There’s a chance he could find his way onto the PK every once in a while, given that there isn’t anyone else established on that depth chart behind Horcoff, Penner and Fraser. PK time isn’t exactly conductive to scoring and any prolonged time on the PK unit is likely to decrease his counting numbers.

Linemates: If Hall for some reason doesn’t get downplayed on ice-time, he’ll likely see his point totals decrease because of his projected linemates. One day I hope to break down Hall’s junior linemates to get a feel for his QualTEAM, but I’m certain it was fairly good. I don’t believe this will be the case in Edmonton if the Oilers are committed to putting their rookies in a position to succeed. If they want to bring Hall et al. along slowly, they’re going to have to run Horpensky out against the toughs night in and night out. Hall, therefore, will likely line up as the 2LW. No offense to Gagner, Cogliano, Brule or whoever else mans the 2-line, but if Hall’s not playing with Hemsky, he won’t have the best QualTEAM. Expect his rookie point totals to be deflated slightly because of this.

Of course, these are just two of myriad reasons Hall’s point totals could be affected. But they are the two of immediate concern to me. We must also consider injury, slumps and overall adjustment to the NHL in his portfolio. He’s also going to be pushed for ice-time by the other older rookies. There’s only so much time to go around, and if Hall’s slumping his development might be better served by watching Hemsky and Penner from the press-box for a couple of games.

With all respect to LT, I’d be a little cautious when projecting him as a “strong Calder candidate”, as there hasn’t been a Calder Trophy winner in his post-draft season since Sergei Samsonov in the 1997-98 season. To me, that’s heaping a little too much expectation on his shoulders, even if all of his stars align.

THN’s projection is high, in my opinion, and they seem to be of the belief that Hall will get the cherry minutes on the powerplay right off the bat. I believe that those minutes should not be his by right, but earned through productivity at even strength. He won’t out-produce Hemsky, Penner, Gagner or even Horcoff initially, so it stands to reason that if the team wants to remain competitive (read: win every 4 games or so), Hall should be battling the Brule/Cogliano/other rookies pack for second-line PP duty.

In short, Taylor Hall’s season is far from predictable. Controlling my expectations somewhat, by the end of the year I’d like to see him;

- Firmly establish himself as the #2 LW on the Oilers
- Push for playing time on the #1 PP unit
- Put forth a consistent effort every night, avoiding prolonged slumps
- Play in 65 games, scoring 20-16-36 with a +/- greater than -10

Anything else that we see from our budding superstar, like a Calder nomination, PK ability or a developing two-way game, should be considered as exceeding expectations for this season.

Rookies

I’m going to take a page out of the tome of BDHS here and take you on a little story. Or what I can remember of said story after consuming as much beer as I did this past weekend.

Every year at about this time, our group of friends has had enough of the city life and migrate out to the Ontario wilderness for a weekend. It’s been going on for the last four years for yours truly, and even longer for some of the more grizzled veterans in our group. There are new additions each year and like me four years ago, some make the grade and become established members of tent-fest. For every one that makes it however, there are usually a few who don’t get past that first year.

I was once such a rookie. Sam Gagner if you will. I had some very good talents (like a bitchin axe for wood chopping) and a projectable frame, but that first year, I was in over my head. The camping experience with friends is a lot different than my previous camping sorties with family. Now everything is not done for me, I have to survive on my own wits and I struggled that first year. Where others in the group were wrapping up roasts in tin foil and slow cooking for hours, I had hotdogs. I ran out of beer and had to journey to the local LCBO to fill up on what I thought would be good local beers I hadn’t heard of (Labatt’s Black Ice and OV...dumbass). I was a wreck two days into that weekend, but I perservered. Three years from that first trip, I’ve established myself on the camping roster as a go-to producer who brings all the necessary tools to ensure a smooth weekend. I still don’t have to do the heavy lifting, but I step in to provide complimentary scoring.

Twenty-one of us made the trek this year to Sioux Narrows and their beautiful group site looking out on Lake of the Woods. This isn’t camping in the sense that we’re roughing it, far from it. Roughing it at a place like this means that you have to walk two minutes to get to the showers, or that the guy who brings us ice hasn’t shown up in a couple of hours so our beer coolers are only about half-full.

But we’re a hardened group. We can handle such stresses with the grace that only veterans can accomplish. This is because we are prepared. We know from past experiences what to bring, how to react in times of crisis, and when a cause is lost.

Which brings me to this year’s star rookie. He’s been a member of our group for the last four years, but this is the first year he’s been able to join us. He’s a great guy and brings a lot to the table in terms of raw talent and potential, but this year you could tell he wasn’t quite ready for the camping experience. He ran out of ice. Then ran out of beer. Then there was no more bacon (a cardinal sin among this group). The only cooking implement he brought was a kitchen frying pan. In short, he was drowning in the deep end he was unceremoniously thrown into to see if he could float.

Us veterans tried to help him along wherever possible, adding to his meagre provisions (only we could take his pantry and turn it into a meal of “breaded fire-roasted chicken breast with alphaghetti demi-glace accompanied with buttered pan-seared mushrooms”), or teaching him how to pitch a tent in an area that wouldn’t be littered with rocks. He’ll take what he learned from this trip and come back stronger and better prepared next year. We’ve got a lot of faith in this rookie.

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This year’s version of Edmonton Oiler rookies are a lot like my buddy here. We all know Taylor Hall has sublime talents, and he’s got one hell of a frying pan, but will he know when to cover the pinching defenseman? Magnus Paajarvi’s got the most electrifying speed we’ve seen since Andrew Cogliano’s rookie season, but will he be able to find the trailing man on a 3-on-2 rush towards his goal? Jordan Eberle can chop wood offensively, but will his skating hinder his ability at the next level? Will Linus Omark be able to reach high enough to tie the rain tarp to the tall trees?

My point is this; we know our rookies have all-world talents, but they’re still unproven. Like my friends and camping, some of these young men will meet our expectations this year and come back better prepared for next year. Others will have their dreams of being a star in the NHL dashed faster than a burnt marshmallow. They still might be serviceable players, but they won’t be counted on to drive the trailer the way one of these men eventually will.

We need to temper out expectations, because otherwise we’re going to be in for a world of disappointment come April. The veterans on this team are going to have to do a hell of a job mentoring the rookies, and I hope they’re up to the task. We initiated about 5 rookies into our annual trip this year and it looks like one will rise above the rest while the others may not get a second season to prove themselves. Though the bathing suit on one well-proportioned rookie may earn her multiple second chances – think similar to how JF Jacques keeps getting more time on the NHL roster.

The success of the Edmonton Oilers future isn’t on the rookies this year. It falls to those who have been around before to lead the way. Potential takes a flying leap once our prospects start playing for keeps, and if Horcoff and company can’t show our next generation the way, we’re in for another decade of mediocrity. Just keep that in mind when you think Taylor Hall is going to single-handedly deliver us a playoff berth.

So begins a series of posts I’m planning to write over the next couple of weeks on my reasonable expectations for the newest bunch of Edmonton Oiler hopefuls.