Controlled Expectations: Taylor Hall

This is the first instalment of what I like to call “controlled expectations” for our Edmonton Oilers prospects. In saying this, I hope to provide a reasonable framework for each documented player to meet my expectations for this year. I’ll be calling on previously written expectations available both online and in print media to compare and contrast my thinking. As usual, Lowetide provides the gold standard in NHLer “Reasonable Expectations”, but I’ll also be comparing and contrasting those of THN’s annual Fantasy Projections which hit stores a couple weeks ago.

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Taylor Hall is an eighteen year old “man”. I want to stress that he will be an elite hockey player (barring injuries, *knocks on wood*) during his career, but it won’t be the case yet. This is not Alex Ovechkin folks. He might give us flashes of the Great 8 with his powerful skating and physical play, but I haven’t seen the off-the-charts offensive instincts that the Russian displays.

Desjardins’ NHLe: 17-29-46
Lowetide RE: 20-20-40
THN: 22-31-53

As shown by these other projections, the rookie season of Taylor Hall could go a number of ways, and it depends on a couple of factors.

Ice time: Such a statistic is not measured in junior hockey, but it would be wise to assume that due to the strength of his junior team, we should not subject Hall to the “London Knights Correction Factor”. If he were the only offensive weapon on his team (like Seguin), I would have expected his counting numbers to be inflated due to increased ice-time. As it is, we’re left wondering if Hall’s point total could have been even higher if he were a power-play minute hog.

If you’re not familiar with Desjardins NHLe, it is a wonderful tool to predict offensive production from one league to another. Hall’s CHL point total is run through a correction factor and averaged out over an 82-game schedule to provide a comparison metric with a high probability of accuracy.

In Edmonton, as in Windsor, he won’t be the feature forward. This makes Hall’s NHLe prediction seem plausible as he’ll likely be playing behind Dustin Penner, both at even strength and on the powerplay. It’s almost a given that he’ll be given every opportunity to look good and be given plenty of ice-time by the organization. In fact, I won’t be surprised if by the end of the year Hall will be atop the Oilers’ all-time rookie minutes list LT puts out every year.

There’s a chance he could find his way onto the PK every once in a while, given that there isn’t anyone else established on that depth chart behind Horcoff, Penner and Fraser. PK time isn’t exactly conductive to scoring and any prolonged time on the PK unit is likely to decrease his counting numbers.

Linemates: If Hall for some reason doesn’t get downplayed on ice-time, he’ll likely see his point totals decrease because of his projected linemates. One day I hope to break down Hall’s junior linemates to get a feel for his QualTEAM, but I’m certain it was fairly good. I don’t believe this will be the case in Edmonton if the Oilers are committed to putting their rookies in a position to succeed. If they want to bring Hall et al. along slowly, they’re going to have to run Horpensky out against the toughs night in and night out. Hall, therefore, will likely line up as the 2LW. No offense to Gagner, Cogliano, Brule or whoever else mans the 2-line, but if Hall’s not playing with Hemsky, he won’t have the best QualTEAM. Expect his rookie point totals to be deflated slightly because of this.

Of course, these are just two of myriad reasons Hall’s point totals could be affected. But they are the two of immediate concern to me. We must also consider injury, slumps and overall adjustment to the NHL in his portfolio. He’s also going to be pushed for ice-time by the other older rookies. There’s only so much time to go around, and if Hall’s slumping his development might be better served by watching Hemsky and Penner from the press-box for a couple of games.

With all respect to LT, I’d be a little cautious when projecting him as a “strong Calder candidate”, as there hasn’t been a Calder Trophy winner in his post-draft season since Sergei Samsonov in the 1997-98 season. To me, that’s heaping a little too much expectation on his shoulders, even if all of his stars align.

THN’s projection is high, in my opinion, and they seem to be of the belief that Hall will get the cherry minutes on the powerplay right off the bat. I believe that those minutes should not be his by right, but earned through productivity at even strength. He won’t out-produce Hemsky, Penner, Gagner or even Horcoff initially, so it stands to reason that if the team wants to remain competitive (read: win every 4 games or so), Hall should be battling the Brule/Cogliano/other rookies pack for second-line PP duty.

In short, Taylor Hall’s season is far from predictable. Controlling my expectations somewhat, by the end of the year I’d like to see him;

- Firmly establish himself as the #2 LW on the Oilers
- Push for playing time on the #1 PP unit
- Put forth a consistent effort every night, avoiding prolonged slumps
- Play in 65 games, scoring 20-16-36 with a +/- greater than -10

Anything else that we see from our budding superstar, like a Calder nomination, PK ability or a developing two-way game, should be considered as exceeding expectations for this season.