Trading a star, getting a star (in the making) in return

We’re jumping into the Bubbling-Under time machine today, as I hope to find a comparable scenario to aid in the Oilers’ current re-build. I’m of the opinion that with the youth movement in full swing, we should be strongly considering trading off our valuable veteran assets sometime soon. Those being Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky. But the question is, what are they worth on the open market? Fans, those of any team, have the uncanny ability to overvalue their own players’ realistic trade value. It’s just a fact of life. There’s no way either of these two elite forwards get traded for the next Sidney Crosby, so if you’re of the idea that they are maybe you should skip this post and, like the magic 8-ball often tells me, try again later. In this entry, we examine the trade of a superstar just entering his prime, for a prospect that would make any General Manager happy.

------------------

The year is 1995. The New York Rangers were beginning defense of their first Cup title in 54 years. The Quebec Nordiques are no more while my beloved Winnipeg Jets are on life support. Coincidentally, they’ve got a Russian goaltender coming off an injury-marred season (go figure) and will soon depart to wander the desert for 40 years of obscurity and ownership issues.

Our superstar is coming off a similarly disappointing season, playing in only 46 games but eclipsing the point-per-game mark with 50 points. In his first eight years in the NHL, he’s tallied 51 goals twice and has never had a season where he didn’t score 20 goals. He is captain of his hockey club and has helped to deliver them their first (and only) Stanley Cup. But this is a poor Canadian team in a small-market, and they lack the funds to pay their superstar what he is rightfully worth. And so, he holds out for more money or a trade. Joe Nieuwendyk never plays another game for the Calgary Flames, but that doesn’t mean that he still can’t help the franchise that drafted him to succeed for years to come.

On December 19th of 1995, Nieuwendyk is traded to the Dallas Stars, for a player and a pick. Dallas is building towards becoming a Stanley Cup contender, and picking up a veteran superstar in Nieuwendyk is seen as a productive move. It eventually turns out to be one of the best moves in franchise history as he delivers them their first Stanley Cup four years later, with Nieuwendyk taking the 1999 Conn Smythe Trophy honours.

But that doesn’t mean that Dallas got the best of the trade. For in trading for Nieuwendyk, they had to give up one of the most respected hockey players in the current NHL. At the time of the trade, a young Jarome Arthur-Leigh Adekunle Tig Junior Elvis (seriously) Iginla was preparing to star for Team Canada’s U-20 team at the World Junior Championships. Drafted eleventh overall by Dallas in that summer’s NHL entry draft, Iginla was tearing the WHL a new one in his third season of junior hockey. He would go on to score 63 goals in 63 games, totalling an eye-popping 136 points. He would step straight into the NHL the following season, foregoing his final year of junior eligibility to score 50 points for the young Flames. Since then, Jarome Iginla has been Mr. Everything for the Flames organization. Serving as their captain, leading scorer and inspirational leader, Iginla took the Flames to within a disallowed goal of their second Stanley Cup win.

Truly, this is a trade that worked out marvellously for both organizations.

---------------------

So what should the Oilers be looking for to bring back the once-popular star for prospects trade? And more important, are our players worth blue-chip prospects?

Let’s start with the devil we know. Ales Hemsky is a sublime hockey player. On most nights he’s worth the price of admission all on his own. An effortless skater with impressive puck skills, elite level playmaking and an underrated wrist shot, Hemsky is a great offensive package. But it doesn’t end there as he is far from a one-dimensional hockey player. He has been coached well from the time he first entered the league that the defensive side of hockey is also of the utmost importance. Hemsky has demonstrated through the years that he is capable of playing tough opposition, which is a valuable commodity on the trading block. He has limited experience in the Stanley Cup playoffs as a direct result of Edmonton’s failure to surround him with talented players, with the exception of the perfect storm that was 2006. Ales Hemsky is worth a blue-chip prospect.

Dustin Penner shares Hemsky’s two-way game, but the similarities really end there. Dustin Penner is Paul Bunyan on skates, a big big man, with big big talent. When he’s on his game, the man from Winkler MB is unstoppable. He’s been favourably compared to Frank Mahovlich when he’s going as he has the speed to drive wide and take the puck to the net. A good shot and average playmaking ability are other qualities that make Penner a star player. Unlike Hemsky, Penner has a Stanley Cup on his resume from his time with the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. He’s sometimes called out for “lazy” or “uninspired” play, which could detract from his overall value in a trade, but I believe Dustin Penner is worth a blue-chip prospect from the right team.
So, that’s two very tradable assets that should garner a blue-chipper in return.

What should the Oilers be looking for?

In my opinion, we should be looking at players 18-21 years old (drafted 2008 or later), likely in the first round or possess first round talent. Preferably not a winger, as we have a couple of our own that are developing at this time. Defence prospects are where I’d look to first, but would probably not turn down a certain center that I’ll get to later. Defence is the area that we are really lacking a stud prospect, and this is the perfect time to address the deficiency. While names like Alex Plante, Jeff Petry and Martin Marincin may have Top-4 upside, the organization really lacks that #1 blueliner-in-the-making that would eventually put our team over the top. It can’t be just any old rearguard, but it needs to be said that we aren’t getting a Doughty/Hedman-type here. I’ve identified a couple of eligible prospects from teams that could be looking at adding an impact player at the trade deadline this year. Because as much as I would like to have Travis Hamonic or Calvin de-Haan, I think someone would be fired on Long Island for agreeing to said trade.

Option 1: Jared Cowan, Ottawa Senators.
Cowan was considered by some to be Victor Hedman’s equal heading into the 2009 NHL draft, before suffering a serious knee injury. But even with that dark spectre hanging over him, the Ottawa Senators just couldn’t let him fall out of the draft’s Top-10, selecting him 9th overall. While seen as more of a shut-down type without much offensive flair, he is a dearly-needed commodity for the Oilers. We haven’t had a player like this since Jason Smith left the fold for greener pastures. He’d fit right in with the young core of players the Oilers currently employ and provide that steadying presence in his own zone while being enough of a puck-mover to find Hall or Paajarvi quickly flying the zone.

Option 2: John Carlson, Washington Capitals.
Drafted 27th overall in 2008, Carlson has already seen time this year with the Capitals and has proven himself a fast learner. Another big body defenseman, Carlson has the ability to play many styles of defense. He beat out another highly touted American defender (more on him later) for a spot on last year’s U-20 team, and broke every Canadian’s heart by scoring the OT golden goal with his rush up the ice and blindly picking his corner. He’s got offensive tools and shut-down capability, a combination that would surely be a welcome addition to the Oilers prospect depth chart. I’m unsure if Washington would be more willing to part with him or 2007 5th overall pick Karl Alzner, but if given the choice, Carlson would be my preference.

Option 3: Nick Leddy, Chicago Blackhawks.
Originally drafted 16th overall by Minnesota in 2009, Leddy was the key cog that sent Cam Barker to the Wild. I don’t have much insight to supply on Leddy other than him being a high draft pick, so take it away hockeysfutures (http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/nick_leddy):

“While many view Leddy as an offensive defenseman, he could potentially blossom into more of a two-way defenseman. His play is equally strong at both ends of the ice. Leddy combines superb offensive prowess with conscientious and responsible defensive zone play. He does an excellent job of taking away time and space from the opposition, and can also create it for both himself and his teammates.
One attribute that makes it all possible is his outstanding skating ability. Leddy is an agile skater with good speed and smoothness in his strides. This can particularly be seen in his transitioning and rushes up the ice. This past summer, Leddy added 15 pounds to his 5'11 frame. The result has enhanced his game tremendously, especially on the physical side”

Sounds like a pretty solid package, albeit in a much smaller form than Cowan or Carlson.

Option 4: John Moore, Columbus Blue Jackets.
John Moore is a player I wanted pretty badly, and was pleading for the Oilers to move up into the first round to take last year. Taken 21st overall, Moore is a sublime skater that combines size with strong positional play and offensive upside. In short, the complete package. Moore would be the perfect match for the Oilers run-and-gun offensive style that hasn’t been seen often enough in these parts for a number of years. With a smooth-skating defenseman a’la Paul Coffey, the new Oilers would have no trouble finding the back of the net.

Option 5: Brandon Gormley, Phoenix Coyotes.
That Brandon Gormley fell all the way to 13th overall in this year’s entry draft is absolutely criminal. Some GMs (specifically the one in his ivory tower overlooking Madison Square Garden) should lose their jobs over this one. Gormley combines all the abilities you want in a defenseman; mobility, size, smarts, defensive awareness and offensive creativity, into a single entity who plays the game with cyborg-like effectiveness. With the Coyotes opening their doors to their top defensive prospect Oliver Ekman-Larson this year, there’s a chance they might be willing to part with Gormley. He’s #1 on my defensive wishlist.

So there we have it, five defensive prospects of interest for the Edmonton Oilers this coming season. I’d be happy with any one of them, but if I had to pick my ideal return for Hemsky or Penner, it’d have to be...

Cody Hodgson, Vancouver Canucks.
It goes a little against the grain to covet another forward, particularly an oft-injured one, especially one who plays for a divisional rival, but to hell with it. Hodgson is everything this team needs to find a zen-like balance up front. He’s only 20 and already he looks like he could be an 80-100 point, defensively responsible center similar to a Joe Sakic or Steve Yzerman. He’s just that good. There are reports he’s not happy with Vancouver’s management for how they’ve handled his injury problems, so maybe there’s a deal to be had here. He’s also played internationally with Jordan Eberle and showed great chemistry with him, so that’s another plus.

Call me crazy all you want, I think Hodgson could be Edmonton’s version of Jarome Iginla. It’s also entirely possible that an addition of any of the five defenseman prospects could prove an equally valuable return for Hemsky or Penner. What I know for sure is that the Edmonton Oilers prospect pipeline could use another infusion of talent, and we have the assets to make it worthwhile to a contending team.

For the right price.