Thursday, September 9, 2010

Controlled Expectations: Jordan Eberle



Of the three uber prospects set to make their Oilers debuts this year, Jordan Eberle may be our best shot at the Calder Trophy, says one astute magazine editor.

...

With all apologies to THN, I think they’re completely out to lunch here. Jordan Eberle may be a hockey hero in most of Canada, but his expectations need to be seriously curtailed or this kid’s in for one hell of a backlash from Oilerdom.

Desjardins’ NHLe: 22-24-46
Lowetide RE: 12-17-29
THN: 25-34-59

If Sesame Street taught me just one thing as a developing child, it's that “One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just doesn’t belong....”

-------------------------------

That’s quite a remarkable spread in point totals among three expert opinions. Honestly, I don’t know how THN arrived at this number, but let’s for argument’s sake try and make a case for Eberle’s Calder-winning season. He’s going to have to come up rolling sevens in a couple of areas, but some are easily obtained given his position.

The next Canadian hockey hero™ comes to the Oilers organization in what could be a perfect storm, having little competition for a spot as the #2RW right out of the gates. If we all assume (correctly) that Ales Hemsky is this team’s #1RW, then it would appear that Eberle would be battling only Gilbert Brule for the second spot on the port-side. Brule can also play center and, at this point, can play it much better than the other option for the #3 slot (Andrew Cogliano), so very well might end up there. Leaving Eberle with virtually no competition for his roster spot. Not the greatest decision by upper management IMO as I feel that each rookie on this team should have to play their way on to the team. It’s what all the smartly run teams do after all. You wouldn’t see Detroit handing a 20-year old a roster spot. Oh no. They’ll bury him in the minors for two years (partly due to cap restrictions, mind), bringing him up to light up the playoffs, to have their hand forced in year three because he’s just too damn good to be left off the NHL roster.

...In case anyone missed it, that’s the career path of Darren Helm. Forgive me my Manitoba homerism, but it’s a development path I wish was followed more regularly.

Ahem... Eberle. Right.

Getting back on topic, not only is Eberle the right positional player coming into the organization at the right time, he’s also the right player-type, and that may go a long way to seeing him succeed. I think it’s safe to say all of Canada has “seen this kid good”, to coin a Lowetide. His knack for scoring big-goals, Sidney-Crosby-big-goals, was well documented the last two Christmases. The 50 he potted for an absolutely abysmal Regina Pats team last year is also nothing to laugh at. Fact is, the Oilers need all the goal scorers they can get, and Eberle has that sneaky talent to go un-noticed in the offensive zone and find the soft areas where you just know a player of Gagner’s cerebral talents is going to find him. If he can show that he’s more than just a junior-level scorer he might well pot THN’s expected 25 goals this season on pure talent alone.

Also to his credit, we can pretty safely scratch the nagging “let’s see how he handles a man’s game” off our list of concerns. Point-per game as an 18-year old, and follow that up by blowing past that mark as a 19-year old has me eating my previous words. This kid doesn’t have anything left to prove at the AHL level.

Some concerns however, are still real and waiting until the NHL season starts. Among them are his size, footspeed, and the dreaded “London Knights Correction Factor”.

For all that his legacy to date is, Eberle remains 5’10”, undersized for the NHL. It’s been overcome before, Martin St. Louis fans are quick to point out to anyone who looks their way, let alone feigns interest. But for every St. Louis, there are those like Nigel Dawes, Wacey Rabbit, Colten Yellowhorn, et cetera. Sublime junior talents with small statures all, yet they don’t exactly remind me of an NHL star. Make no bones about it; Eberle will not be able to get by as easily in the NHL because of his lack of size. In addition he lacks another talent that makes St. Louis one of the most memorable “minute men” of NHL history, that final gear. It’s never mentioned that skating is a weakness for Eberle, but like Gagner it ain’t a strength either. He won’t be able to catch NHL defenseman flat-footed, and that’s been a hallmark of St. Louis throughout his career.

Eberle might not be affected by the LKCF in the traditional sense, but it’s a legitimate concern of mine anyway. There’s no evidence to suggest Eberle was fed large amount of minutes because we lack the necessary data to track this, so this is all speculation. Eberle was a big fish (think Julianna and the Medicine Fish) in a small pond during his junior career, and his point totals might have been inflated as a result. Even-strength, PP, PK, Eberle did it all. With only the emerging Jordan Weal to provide complimentary offense, this team was geared around Eberle, I imagine it was kind of like watching the Atlanta Thrashers play Kovalchuk. So with no other options, there’s little doubt in my mind that Regina’s coach would throw Eberle over the boards as often as he could in order to salvage some wins the past couple seasons. I seriously question his point totals as a result, and wouldn’t be surprised if the former junior superstar comes crashing back to earth this year.

So with all that said, what do I think is a respectable, controlled set of expectations for Jordan Eberle? I had to re-think this since my post about where to slot the kids about a month ago. Given the expectation that Eberle will be the de-facto #2RW on this team, I have to defer closer to Desjardins’ estimate when it comes to point totals than Lowetide’s RE. Special teams play will be hard to come by for Eberle this year I believe, due to some Czech dude hogging all the ice time. I keed. Anyways, here’s what I think is a reasonable set of expectations for Eberle this year:

-Play in 70 games, posting 20-18-38
- +/- somewhere in the region of -15
-Consistent effort all season long while maintaining his position on the RW depth chart
-Establish himself as a mainstay on the #2PP unit

Forcing coach Renney to scale back on Hemsky’s stranglehold on the #1PP would be considered exceeding expectations, as would any sign of a developing two-way game.

No comments:

Post a Comment