Tyler who?

I’ve been going through a lot of prospect literature over the last two weeks. Through the internet and print magazines like The Hockey News there’s enough to distract me to ridiculous levels. I took a break one day from reading about the next first rounders and decided to take a look at who were the steals of last year’s (2009) entry draft. The Oilers got absolute gems in Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, Anton Lander, Toni Rajala and Olivier Roy, three of whom it could be considered they were real value picks because of where we obtained them in the draft.

MPS – 10th overall. THN rank: 7
Lander – 40th overall. THN rank: 50
Rajala – 101st overall. THN rank: 49
Roy – 133rd overall. THN rank: 38

Now, THN isn’t the be all and end all list of ranking prospects but I think it’s safe to say these four are far from the reach picks some Oiler fans are accustomed to. The results are promising too, with MPS and Rajala already signed to entry-level contracts, Lander doing nothing to diminish his billing as a strong defensive forward and team leader, and Roy regaining his form after a hard first month of the season.

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Reading farther into THN’s 2009 draft preview brought me again to their future watch on the top prospects for the 2010 draft. To me, an important measuring stick for prospects is their ability to maintain billing as top prospects over multiple years. To be perfectly frank I stay as far away from fast-rising prospects as I can, preferring to view their “big season” without rose-coloured glasses. I’ve never been a believer that one stand-out season means that continued positive growth is expected. There are too many other factors that could be at play over the course of a single season to say with any confidence that player X will continue to develop exponentially. I much prefer a prospect who has achieved over multiple seasons, leaving less doubt in analyzing their abilities.

And so, going back to the 2009 draft preview’s analysis of the 2010 class, we’re given the following Top-10 players to watch out for (2010 draft ranking in brackets):

1(1): Taylor Hall – A complete player who understands the game
2(38): Kirill Kabanov – Classic Russian winger, very good technically
3(7): Brandon Gormley – Knows what his options are when the puck is on his stick
4(14): Vladimir Tarasenko – A dynamic player, explodes around the puck
5(3): Cam Fowler – Excellent skater, pivots well
6(5): Erik Gudbranson – A special player, great mobility
7(10): Mikael Granlund – Doesn’t need a lot of space to make plays
8(20): John McFarland – A character guy, will do anything to win
9(50): Teemu Pulkkinen – Plays physical and moves well in open ice
10(40): Tyler Toffoli – Skill and confidance, he’s not afraid

Notice a player missing? I certainly did.

At this point last year, there was very little known about Tyler Seguin, the dynamic and complete centerman from Plymouth. Someone who is now described as “the best playmaker in the draft” wasn’t even on the radar last year.

Everyone’s welcome to their opinions, but I found this a little disturbing. I knew he had come on very strong this year to challenge for the top spot, but from outside last year’s Top-10? That’s very concerning, IMO, because it means he falls victim to that fast-riser stigma I described earlier. Will his game continue to grow after this season? Is this season his perfect storm? How much of his growth this year was increased playing time and sheer luck? Is he playing Rob Schremp kind of minutes?

We can’t say these things about Taylor Hall’s game. He’s been a known commodity for years now. He hasn’t exactly increased his point totals year in and year out but we know he’s consistently putting up numbers with a very good team. This tells me a couple things; he’s establishing his level of play and he’s not getting 30 minutes of ice-time per game (to me, a very real concern about Tyler Seguin’s Plymouth Whaler days).

Like I said, your opinion will likely vary from mine, but I’d be staying away from the Tyler Seguins (and Brett Connollys) of this year’s draft. Give me consistency over big splashes when it comes to my prospects.