Thursday, June 24, 2010

Organizational depth chart - Pre-draft edition



Before the NHL draft gets underway tomorrow, I thought It’d be a fun exercise to list the Oilers’ prospects depth charts to try and find areas that need the most help. Addressing the Best Player Available format is all fine and dandy in a perfect world but communism was marketed that way too, and look what it’s done for Russian hockey talent. In reality, the Oilers are only going to be drafting BPA with their first pick, and will then look at addressing organizational needs that stock their cupboards accordingly. Using my definition of a prospect from an earlier post (http://bubbling-under.blogspot.com/2010/06/graduation.html), I’ve generated an organizational prospect depth chart that details our pre-draft areas of strength and need. Note: I didn’t include this year’s college signings such as Blair Riley because I’m unsure if they are Oilers property or Springfield’s guys. If someone could find a source that confirms them as Oilers, I’d appreciate it.

Center
Riley Nash, Anton Lander, Chris VandeVelde, Milan Kytnar, Robby Dee

This is an area of weakness for the Oilers organization. While Nash and Lander may top out as number 2 centers if the stars align, we’re looking at three number 3-4 centers (VandeVelde included here) and two center prospects that, if they make the NHL will be considered unlikely successes. The top three men on this list all possess a wide array of talents but are masters of none, especially high-end offense. The system lacks a true number 1 center prospect and has for a while (recently graduated Sam Gagner looks more like an elite number 2 than a 1st liner). There’s a prospect of such ilk at the top of some draft boards, but I don’t think he’ll be wearing the Copper and Blue.

Center should be a position where our scouting staff addresses with a few picks this year. I’d like to see our second rounders used to try and address the center depth chart. It’s unlikely we’ll get that first-line calibre center, but depth here is sorely needed.

Wing
Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, Jordan Eberle, Linus Omark, Teemu Hartikainen, Toni Rajala, Philippe Cornet, Cameron Abney, Alex Bumagin, William Quist

The strength of the prospect pipeline comes down the wings. There are both high-end offensive talents and grinder-types present in effective numbers for years to come. MPS and Eberle are both top-flight talents with Omark not far off that level. Paajarvi’s speed is a serious weapon coming down the wing, having the ability to back defenders off him and opening up space for his linemates. Eberle is one of the shiftiest players I’ve seen once he gets into the offensive zone. He really blends into the background and is forgotten until the puck gets to his stick, usually in a dangerous scoring area. Omark’s puck-skills are off the charts and has been able to put up consistent scoring numbers playing against men in two different and high-quality Euro leagues despite his small stature. All three have legitimate shots at being top-6 wingers for the Oilers in the near future. Toni Rajala is coming off a productive season where he held down a top-6 winger role for a very talented Brandon Wheat Kings team the entire season while adjusting to the North American style of hockey.

The list of foot soldiers is a promising one too. Led by Hartikainen who has an outside chance at seeing top-6 duty, the bottom-6 wingers feature players willing to get their hands dirty. Hartikainen has had great success in the Finnish SM-Liiga, which is known for being the closest thing to North American hockey stylistically. He’s a big body with adequate skating and is willing to work hard to embrace the defensive side of hockey. Philippe Cornet was a big scorer in junior hockey, but is unlikely to be filling that role at the next level. He’ll have to look up to current Oiler farmhand Liam Reddox for inspiration if he is to make the NHL someday. Cornet possesses that grit and sandpaper that is necessary for 3-4 line players to be effective, but his small stature might be a hindrance. Tough guy Cameron Abney is not a favourite of mine, but I can’t downplay his pugilistic prowess. There’s no doubt that if he makes the NHL it won’t be for his offensive instincts. Like Zach Stortini before him, he’ll need to become a better-rounded player if he’s to be seen as anything more than the token tough guy.

The prospect pool also includes Alex Bumagin and William Quist, but my mom always taught me that if I didn’t have anything nice to say, to shut my gob. Nuff Said.

This is a position of strength for the organization moving forward and it’s only going to get stronger with our first overall selection this year. The addition of Hall (it’s not 100% sure yet, but I’ll be surprised if Seguin’s selected) provides the club with two top-line Left Wing prospects. It’s an interesting place to have such talent but I’m not about to look a gift horse in the mouth. Unless the scouting staff is very high on another winger or a highly ranked prospect finds himself sliding down the draft board I doubt that another winger will be selected this year.

Defense
Jeff Petry, Alex Plante, Taylor Chorney, Johan Motin, Troy Hesketh, Kyle Bigos, Jordan Bendfeld

The defensive pipeline at this point is filled with more potential than product, and I’m not sure there’s a lot of promising talent here. If we blue-sky for a moment, Petry, Plante and Chorney could all become Top-4 defenders one day, but they all still have a long way to go to reach that potential.

Realistically, there are a lot of 3rd pairing defenders here as everyone not named Petry has a significant hole in their game. It’s like the characters from the Wizard of Oz here. Plante has no skating, Chorney has no size, Motin has no offense, Hesketh has no able-body, Bigos has no brain, Bendfeld has no chance. The fortunate thing though is that most of our blueline prospects are still young, there’s room and time to improve their game.

Petry remains the prospect most likely to fill a Top-4 role with the big club. His combination of size, aggressive play and offensive instincts make him an ideal defender for the new NHL. He starts his professional career this year after a less-than-memorable amateur tryout last year. I’m hoping that he’s got more room to grow and improve than his Taylor Chorney-like +/- indicated.

This is an area that the Oilers need to improve. Maybe not as much as their center pipeline, but the club is lacking in Top-4 prospects. I’m hopeful that current Oilers Ryan Whitney, Tom Gilbert and Ladislav Smid will continue to be around and effective Top-4 defenders for a long time. It’ll help keep the pressure off the organizational defence pool until this area can be properly addressed.

Goal
Olivier Roy, Andrew Perugini, Bryan Pitton

Goaltending is a difficult area to predict, and it’s often a waste of precious draft selections to pick a goalie. We’re seeing that demonstrated by the Oilers in the last few years. There have been few selections used on goaltenders, and the results are a very thin prospect depth chart between the pipes.

Olivier Roy is the best of the bunch and still has one year of junior hockey eligibility remaining. He was recently traded a couple of times, eventually settling with the Acadie-Bathurst Titan where he will likely resume his duties as starting goaltender. He’s been a starter in the QMJHL since he was 16 and has seen a lot of puck over his career. After a slow start to the recently completed season his numbers began to steadily improve. He’s a goalie that’s been on the radar of Hockey Canada for ages now and has a good chance at making the U-20 squad this year unless his development takes a big leap backwards. He’s a small but highly agile goaltender with solid angles and reflexes. It’s very hard to project goalies a few years down the road, but he’s never seemed like the type who will be an NHL starter unless he takes the journeyman road and eventually lands on his feet somewhere.

The rest of the depth chart leaves prospect junkies wanting. There is no tender in the system that is anywhere close to pushing Roy for the number one spot. Perugini and Pitton have both struggled at the AHL level and while Pitton was able to get a few call-ups to the big club this year, it was merely to serve as Deslauriers’ back-up while Devan Dubnyk was getting some playing time in down on the farm to keep him fresh. Both Perugini and Pitton are long-shots to ever see NHL playing time, barring injuries from goalies higher up the Oilers’ ladder.

Goaltending is an area of weakness for the Oilers organization, but unless Jack Campbell falls to the second round (highly unlikely, he’s the best goalie to come around since Carey Price) there’s no reason to be spending a draft pick on a goalie this year in my opinion. The best bet is to follow in Brian Burke’s footsteps and address the goaltending depth chart by signing undrafted free agents from Europe or the US college ranks.

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Taking the above information into account, I think Stu MacGregor and his staff would do well to load up on centers and defensemen this year. With the likely selection of Taylor Hall with the first overall pick, it’s unlikely we’ll get our top-ranked center prospect this year. There is however a chance at obtaining a couple of Top-4 calibre defensive prospects with our two second-round selections if the scouts are high on certain players. I’ve previously identified a some centers and defensemen of interest for our second pick (#31 overall), and believe that either Charlie Coyle or Alex Petrovic should be targeted at that point. After that, all bets are off.

With any luck, the organizational prospect depth chart will look a lot different and well-rounded when I look to analyze this again in about a month’s time. Come Saturday night we’ll know where the organization is headed and barring trades, I’ll have 9 new young men to talk about in the coming months.

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