The NHL draft is only days away and as many other bloggers, I’m wasting way too much of my free time scouring over all the literature I can get my hands on that discuss a bunch of 18-year old kids. It’s my favourite time of the hockey year.
This year I thought I’d put all my reading to use and create a mockdraft instead of following suit and putting out another Top-30 list. Lowetide has already done a couple this year and as always they’re well thought out, including the lists from SpOILer and Blue Bullet that he’s put up on his site. As usual, Bob McKenzie has his out and it always laps the field in terms of accuracy. I really enjoyed getting in the heads of the 30 teams’ General Managers in order to identify what exactly their team needs from Friday’s first round.
In compiling my mockdraft I relied heavily on Bob’s list as it is the gold standard. Using THN’s NHL team prospect reports as a guide, I devised a plan for each team as to their prospect strengths and weaknesses. Each team’s work in the previous five NHL entry drafts provided insight into their drafting tendencies in making a selection, there was no way Edmonton was going to Russia and Brian Burke was definitely staying in North America for example.
Without further ado, Edmonton is on the clock...
1: Edmonton:
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Taylor Hall LW, Magnus Paajarvi LW, Jordan Eberle RW, Sam Gagner C, Alex Plante D, Riley Nash C
Team Needs: Teams finishing last place consistently need everything. Unfortunately with no clear-cut #1 pick this year this gives our GM “options”. They need help at C, on defence, and in goal.
Pick: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer
2: Colorado:
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Joey Hishon C, Matt Duchene C, Kevin Shattenkirk D, Chris Stewart RW
Team Needs: Colorado could use some productive wingers to compliment established centers Duchene, Paul Stastny and Ryan O’Reilly, but could also use another stud blueliner to compliment the offensive talents of recently acquired Eric Johnson. Worth noting that they have stayed in Canada for their first rounders the past five years.
Pick: Gabriel Landeskog, LW Kitchener
3: Florida
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Erik Gudbranson D, Nick Bjugstad F Quinton Howden LW, Dmitry Kulikov D, Keaton Ellerby, Michael Frolik
Team Needs: Florida’s gone full-tilt rebuild like the Oilers, starting in earnest last year at the draft where they made three selections to address three needs. They could use a C here and are unlikely to take a defenseman with Gudbranson in the stable. All their first round selections last year under new GM Dale Tallon were large mammals.
Pick: Sean Couturier, C Drummondville
4: New Jersey
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Jacob Josefson C, Mattias Tedenby RW, Matt Corrente D
Team Needs: New Jersey is in an unfamiliar position this year picking as high as they are, and they aren’t likely to screw this up. They’ve been lacking a stud on defence since the days of Scott Neidermayer and there’s a damn good blueliner available. If negotiations are not going well with Zach Parise, they may be tempted to take a forward here.
Pick: Adam Larsson, D Skelleftea
5: NY Islanders
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Nino Niederreiter LW, John Tavares C Calvin DeHaan D, Joshua Bailey C, Kyle Okposo RW
Team Needs: The Islanders need help pretty much everywhere, so they’re bound to get something good in the 5-hole. They aren’t known to go for defence with their first pick, as 2008 first rounder DeHaan was their second selection that year. There are still both forwards and defensemen available here, but expect the Islanders to go forward here to provide a complimentary center to John Tavares.
Pick: Jonathan Huberdeau, C St. John
6: Ottawa Senators
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Jared Cowan, Erik Karlsson, Jim O’Brien C, Nick Foligno LW
Team Needs: Goaltending and defence sure aren’t needs here. Ottawa has to upgrade their forward corps if they’re going to be taken seriously in the coming years. There are two options available here, and both are good fits. Ottawa has taken both from the CHL and Sweden in the past, but I think that intangibles will win out here.
Pick: Mika Zibanejad, C Djurgarden
7: Winnipeg Winnipegs
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Alex Burmistrov C, Evander Kane C, Zach Bogosian D, Bryan Little C
Team Needs: A name and logo. Outside of that, Winnipeg needs a center to build their new team around. There are some defensemen available here that would fit BPA, but Winnipeg doesn’t have a glaring need for them as their blueline is young and signed long-term.
Pick: Ryan Strome, C Niagara
8: Columbus
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Ryan Johansen C, John Moore D, Nikita Filatov C, Jake Voracek RW, Derick Brassard C
Team Needs: Columbus has historically been thin on the blueline and avoided drafting them with high picks. There aren’t many forwards available at this point in the draft, but there are some dandy defenders here. With John Moore in the fold they can forego the offensive creativity and focus on the snarl that left when Adam Foote left town.
Pick: Dougie Hamilton, D Niagara
9: Boston
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Tyler Seguin C, Jordan Caron RW, Joe Colborne C, Zach Hamill C, Phil Kessel C
Team Needs: The recent Stanley Cup champions must be over the moon with that Kessel trade, but that’s old news. Boston can afford to stockpile the best talent available. If pressed, I’d say they could use a blueliner to feed Chara on the PP.
Pick: Ryan Murphy, D Kitchener
10: Minnesota
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Mikael Granlund F, Nick Leddy D, Tyler Cuma D, Colton Gilles L, James Sheppard C
Team Needs: Minnesota is undergoing a franchise transition of sorts. With less emphasis on an ever apparent defensive presence, their prospect pool requires a shot of offense. They might be scared off from selecting a defenseman here as their most recent picks have either been foolishly traded away (Leddy) or failing to live up to first-round status (Cuma). Unfortunately for Minnesota, the talent level falls off after the first nine players.
Pick: Sven Bartschi, LW Portland
11: Colorado
Team Needs: With gritty winger Landeskog in the fold, Colorado can turn its attention to other areas of concern. Calvin Pickard, selected last year, lessens the need for a goaltender. The graduation of Stefan Elliot from junior opens a space in the pipeline for a puck-moving blueliner. The “shy away from Europe” theory again applies here.
Pick: Nathan Beaulieu, D St. John
12: Carolina
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Jeff Skinner RW, Phillippe Paradis LW, Zack Boychuk C, Brandon Sutter C
Team Needs: The Hurricanes hit a home-run last year with the selection of Skinner, who will be a staple for the next decade as a top-6 winger for Carolina. They’ve got depth at C and some intriguing defensive prospects. Another team that doesn’t like to take Euros with first rounders.
Pick: Jamie Oleksiak, D Northeastern
13: Calgary
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Tim Erixon D, Greg Nemicz C, Michael Backlund C, Leland Irving G
Team Needs: Calgary was recently spurned by 2009 first rounder Tim Erixson, easily the top prospect in their system. This defection exposed their lack of prospect depth and was a loss that Calgary frankly could not afford. They managed to turn a bad situation into a less crippling one with their return from the Rangers, but this could scare them off of Euros for a while. They’ve needed prospects to contribute offence forever.
Pick: Mark Scheifele, C Barrie
14: Dallas
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Jack Campbell G, Scott Glennie RW, Ivan Vishnevsky
Team Needs: Besides ownership stability, the Stars need players who can score. They’re about to lose their offensive force in Brad Richards and, while it’s impossible to suggest an 18-year old will step up and fill that void, they’re going to need the help eventually. Defence isn’t the greatest concern in the world here and they picked up their stud goalie last year. While a center would be the best bet, and Zack Phillips is available, I see them opting again (as was the case with Scott Glennie) for a large winger who can score goals.
Pick: Joel Armia, RW Assat
15: NY Rangers
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Dylan McIlrath, Chris Kreider C, Michael Del Zotto D, Alexi Cherepanov (RIP), Bobby Sanguinetti
Team Needs: New York doesn’t really need anything particular here, just a player they can eventually plug in and allow him to play to his strengths. They don’t have a drafting philosophy in the first round as I can see and have no problems going to Europe to make important selections. They’ve got enough snarl on the blueline with McIlrath and Pavel Valentenko and enough skill on the wing to go a long way. I’m making this selection on the hope that Del Zotto regains his form.
Pick: Zach Phillips, C St. John
16: Buffalo
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Mark Pysyk D, Zack Kassian RW, Tyler Myers D, Tyler Ennis C, Dennis Persson D
Team Needs: An offensive center with size would certainly fit the bill here to compliment their hard-working wing prospects. With Myers already winning awards at the NHL level and Pysyk eventually contributing solid two-way play they have no need to go after a defenseman again. They avoid Europe like the plague and have shown a tendency to look to the WHL in recent drafts.
Pick: Mark McNeill, C Prince Albert
17: Monteal
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Jarred Tinordi D, Louis Leblanc C, Ryan McDonough D, David Fischer D
Team Needs: Montreal has only minor needs at this point and can afford to draft according to their preferences instead of BPA. They love the NCAA programs (Tinordi was originally committed to NCAA) and will likely stick to that route again. They lack a dynamic offensive contributor in their prospect pipeline but those aren’t available at this point. There are some highly talented Swedes available on teh blueline, but I don’t see that as an option for Montreal.
Pick: J T Miller, C US NTDP
18: Chicago
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Kevin Hayes F, Dylan Olsen D, Kyle Beach LW, Pat Kane RW, Jon Toews C
Team Needs: More cap space. They’ve got great depth everywhere right now, having fleeced every trading partner they had after being forced to offload salary last offseason. They’ve got speed, offence, ruggedness, grit and goaltending. The best player still available (in North America) is who they’ll grab.
Pick: Duncan Siemens, D Saskatoon
19: Edmonton
Team Needs: They still need a ton of help but having picked up their stud centerman the Oilers can focus on the remaining hole in their prospect system; blueline offence. I’ve seen many mockdrafts with the Oilers taking the likes of Oleksiak, Siemens and Joe Morrow here but this isn’t the player type the Oilers have need of. The prospect pool is filled with stay at home or two-way types (Theo Peckham, Colten Teubert, Alex Plante, Jeff Petry all fit that mold), picking another one at this stage doesn’t make sense to me. Especially when there are some offensive defensemen who are available and are higher rated.
Pick: Jonas Brodin, D Farjestad
20: Phoenix
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Brandon Gormley D, Mark Visentin G, Oliver Ekman-Larsson D, Mikael Boedker LW, Viktor Tikhonov LW, Kyle Turris C, Nick Ross D, Peter Mueller C, Chris Summers D
Team Needs: Phoenix has had more first round draft picks the past 5 years than any other team in the NHL. Problem is they’ve picked some duds, and the rest have failed to live up to first round billing (O E-L excluded of course). They could use a center, as Kyle Turris is still struggling to be more than a 3rd liner. They’ve picked a little bit of everything in recent years, there doesn’t seem to be a tendency with the Phoenix scouting department. This is a bit of a reach pick.
Pick: Rocco Grimaldi, C US NTDP
21: Ottawa
Team Needs: With Mika Zibanejad home and cooling, the Senators have another opportunity to improve their forward depth. As stated earlier there’s no reason to consider D this year, unless there’s a guy left who is head and shoulders above the rest. I think they go forward, and they stay within Ontario to get it.
Pick: Matt Puempel, LW Peterborough
22: Anaheim
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Cam Fowler D, Emerson Etem C, Peter Holland C, Kyle Palmeiri C, Jake Gardiner D, Logan Mac Millan LW, Mark Mitera D
Team Needs: If it weren’t for the meteoric rise of Jeff Skinner, the Ducks would have walked away with the steal of the draft last year in Cam Fowler. He’s going to be a #1 in a few short years but could use some help around him. They’re deep at forward, blessed with skill, size and two-way abilities but lack a little bit of nasty. This pick could end up being Tyler Biggs, but I think they’ll like a defenseman here.
Pick: Joe Morrow, D Portland
23: Pittsburgh
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Beau Bennett F, Simon Despres D, Angelo Esposito C, Jordan Staal C
Team Needs: The search continues for wingers that can play with the best centers in the league. They made a dandy selection last year with Beau Bennett, but should continue to add to their cupboards. Their defensemen are getting on in years but Simon Despres should be able to slot in as a top-4 guy in short order. I’ve got two players in mind here, and I’m taking size and speed over a consistent effort.
Pick: Tomas Jurco, RW St. John
24: Detroit
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Riley Sheahan F, Thomas McCollum G, Brendan Smith D
Team Needs: Detroit does not, nor has it really ever needed, anything. They will continue to go about their business to find the best ranked player regardless of where he came from. Lidstrom’s eventual retirement may be playing in their minds, and they could very well look to Sweden for another defenseman.
Pick: Oscar Klefbom, D Farjestad
25: Toronto
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Nazem Kadri C, Luke Schenn C, Jiri Tlusty, F
Team Needs: Regardless of how much we make fun of Toronto, they’ve done a good job in the recent past to shore up their organizational depth pretty much across the board. They won’t go goalie, they prefer to sign them when they’re a little older. The Leafs have better depth at forward than they do on the blueline at this point due to good drafting and trading. Brian Burke will pick a kid from North America, you can set your watch to that.
Pick: Brandon Saad, LW Saginaw
26: Washington
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Evgeny Kuznetsov F, Marcus Johansson C, Anton Gustafsson F, Karl Alzner D, Nicklas Backstrom C
Team Needs: Washington needs heart. They’ve got all the talent in the world but lack a true leader. That’s not the easiest thing to find, but there are some real character players in this year’s draft who could fit the bill here. A defenseman would also be nice, as they have enough offensive firepower to field a second team that could still beat the Edmonton Oilers. There are many options for the Capitals, who could again try for a home-run with someone like Viktor Rask. Very underrated scouting department.
Pick: Boone Jenner, C Oshawa
27: Tampa Bay
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Brett Connolly RW, Viktor Hedman D, Carter Ashton RW, Steven Stamkos C, Riku Helenius G
Team Needs: Tampa Bay is under new management, so throw the book out the window. The procurement department did well before Steve Yzerman was placed in the GM chair, picking up big productive bodies and the occasional superstar. The selection of Brett Connolly last year proved Yzerman is not scared off by injuries when drafting players. Their defensive pipeline is not strong, but there are forwards ranked higher. I think they continue along with their trend of drafting large mammals with secondary skills.
Pick: Tyler Biggs, RW US NTDP
28: San Jose
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Charlie Coyle F, Logan Couture C, Ty Wishart D
Team Needs: San Jose has achieved the level of “Detroit-model” in the sense that they don’t have to go after a specific position at the draft. They’ll gladly take whatever player is available to them and work them into their system when they’re ready. Lots of size and nastiness on the blueline already, but are a bit thin on the wing. Versatility is a big plus in San Jose’s system.
Pick: Niklas Jensen, LW/RW Oshawa
29: Vancouver
Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Jordan Schroeder C, Cody Hodgson C, Patrick White C, Michael Grabner F
Team Needs: Vancouver made it to within one game of the Stanley Cup this year, and as such don’t need much at the NHL level. Their prospect pipeline however, could stand an injection of consistent talent. Recent first rounders Schroeder and Hodgson have stalled at the AHL level and White likely won’t even get that far in the Canucks’ system. The blueline was forced to provide replacements throughout the year and rookies Chris Tanev and Lee Sweatt proved capable. They need scoring and won’t likely go the college route any time soon.
Pick: Ty Rattie, LW Portland
30: Toronto
Team Needs: With big winger Saad added to their prospect collection, Toronto can add another Brian Burke type player to their stable.
Pick: Scott Mayfield, D Youngstown
31: Edmonton
The best of the rest begins the second round for Edmonton on day two of the draft. Stu MacGregor will be able to re-stack his deck and go out on Saturday and find the best player who slipped through the cracks. I would have loved if Tyler Biggs were still available as I think he’s exactly what the Oilers need, but will have to look elsewhere. Not typically the type to go looking for the home-run, Edmonton will likely pick the safe player at 31.
Pick: Rickard Rakell, RW Plymouth
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That’s the draft as I see it. Looking back, my draft had 29 of the 30 players Bob McKenzie slotted as first-rounders. He’s the foremost word on the scouting front these days, and when in doubt, I trusted his list.
Disagree with my picks? I’m sure you will. Let me know in the comments section, and I’ll try and give a more in-depth reasoning as to why I made my selections.
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