Forward depth charts and what to do with the kids

It’s been hard trying to find worthwhile material for this non-Edmontonian to cover in the past month. Without having the kind of access to the Prospects Development Camp that others like Coming Down the Pipe or Copper and Blue are privy to, I decided to leave that job up to them. And boy did they produce, great job men. You’re filling my apparent niche so well I’ve been able to enjoy much more time outside this summer.

But I’ve gotten restless, and it appears that my writing skills have deteriorated because I’ve tried to finish this sentence about four times already. In the words of Lisa Simpson “I’m losing my perspicacity!”

With that in mind, I’ve decided tonight to take a look at the organizational depth charts (in my opinion) and try and find a place for our three wunderkind winger prospects to play this year in order to maximize both their potential and their contract situation. Please keep in mind that these are projected depth charts at this time, and I’m taking a couple of liberties in placing some NHLers in potentially un-traditional spots.

Center: Horcoff, Gagner, Cogliano, Fraser, Moran, Vande Velde, O’Marra

I don’t want to place an 18-year old Taylor Hall on the C-depth chart because, in my opinion, he shouldn’t be thought of as a center. If you drafted him as a winger, then use him as a winger. If you wanted the centerman, then you should have taken Seguin.

Left Wing: Penner, Hall, Paajarvi, Jones, Jacques, Giroux, Reddox, Cornet

Two of our prospects of interest here, I’ve slotted them two and three on the depth chart, but as I see it there’s only one spot between the two of them to fight for as they should both be playing Top-6 minutes to be successful. Penner should have the 1LW spot locked up in ink. I’d rather have Jones and Jacques (maybe Reddox) fill out the bottom-6 roles than Hall or Paajarvi. Actually, I’d rather have a veteran winger that would effectively pump Jones to the 4th line and Jacques to the press box but that has yet to materialize. Neither Hall or Paajarvi have the makings of third liners, so I’d rather not see one of them plodding along like Cogliano was forced into doing last year.

In a normal situation, I’d say let the players make the decision in training camp with their play being the deciding factor, but there are a couple of conditions that make such a decision a little tricky.

- Taylor Hall is the future of this franchise, and there will be outrage among the Oiler faithful if he does not make the team coming out of camp.

- If Hall does not make the Oilers, he has to go back to Windsor. He’s shown in previous seasons that he has outgrown the OHL and rightly so. Because he can’t go to the AHL (in one of the most unsuccessful contractual legalities in prospect history), he needs to be in the NHL to get better as a prospect.

- Magnus Paajarvi can return to Timra (SEL) without the Oilers losing a year on his entry-level contract, or he can play in the AHL without losing a year on his contract.

- However, if Paajarvi plays more than 40 games in the NHL, the Oilers lose a year on his 7-year exclusive negotiating rights clock.
For these reasons, I go with Taylor Hall as the #2 LW. I send Paajarvi back to Sweden for the season for a couple of reasons.

- He won’t be the #1LW in Oklahoma as that should belong to Alex Giroux if he’s not playing NHL hockey. He certainly has a shot at playing in the NHL and deserves that opportunity after ripping the AHL apart for the last two seasons. You can bet that he’ll be the first call-up to the big club if Penner or Hall succumb to injury.

- Paajarvi has the ability to return to Timra as the de-facto #1 LW, continue to play against men, and be comfortable in his home country for another season.

- In returning to Sweden to play, Paajarvi has the opportunity to play for the U20 team once again. Some prefer to underrate the importance of this tournament due to the small number of games played, but I like to see prospects compete against their own age group to see how far ahead or behind their cohorts they are. Last year it showed us that Taylor Hall was indeed the real deal and that Nazem Kadri will make Brian Burke look a fool in the coming years.

Magnus might be a little peeved at the demotion, but I think in the long run he is better served being a go-to guy in Sweden than playing third-fiddle on a bad team.

Right Wing: Hemsky, Brule, Eberle, Omark, Stortini, MacIntyre, Ondrus, Stewart, Hartikainen

For much the same reasoning that put Paajarvi back in Sweden, I think it’s best for Jordan Eberle to be kept away from this team until either injuries force Management’s hand or he blows the doors off the AHL. Jordan Eberle will never be mistaken for a third-line NHLer so why bother putting him there in his first NHL season when there are other options? Hemsky is the bona-fide 1RW, so Eberle will have to outplay Brule in training camp to get his shot at the Top-6. I like Brule better at this point because he provides more intangibles to the NHL team such as hitting and NHL experience. Both are smaller players with high-end offensive skills but Eberle’s two-way contract might play against him here. I like Stortini and Omark to take the 3 and 4 spots; Stortini because he’s done it before and Omark because he’s played against men for the last three years in Europe and likely has less development less. He won’t necessarily need Top-6 minutes to develop any further.
In going to Oklahoma, Eberle will be fighting it out (maybe literally) with Ben Ondrus for the 1RW spot with the loser of that battle likely to be given the 2RW spot.

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Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
Hall-Gagner-Brule
Jones-Cogliano-Stortini
Jacques-Fraser-Omark
MacIntyre

*Note: I’ve only placed thirteen forwards on the roster for a reason. I’m predicting a three-headed goalie nightmare (Version 2.0) again this year, until the Khabibulin issue is sorted.

So there’s my take on what to do with our impact wingers. You’d think that for a rebuilding year I’d have preferred to put all our youngsters on the team to try and gel together as quickly as possible, but I just can’t do it. I’d rather have our prospects placed in positions to succeed, and the best way to do that is to keep them away from the Oilers for as long as possible.

2010 Draft through the rear-view

It’s been a while since the 2010 Entry Draft took place, and I’ve had the time to properly calm down after a couple of “interesting” picks by our scouting staff. Here’s a quick look at how this blogger thought our draft days went.

Round 1: Taylor Hall

An absolute no-brainer pick here. Taylor Hall is the most NHL-ready prospect this year and his tendencies for winning make him perfect for the Oilers in three years. He’ll play in the NHL next year and has the chance at being a Calder trophy candidate if he’s placed in an ideal situation. Personally, I’d like to see him start the year in the bottom-6 and make him earn the cherry minutes lining up alongside Hemsky or Gagner, but I know it’s not going to happen. He’ll be a mainstay on the Oilers top line for the next half-decade at the very least. A franchise changing player.

Round 2: Tyler Pitlick, Martin Marincin, Curtis Hamilton

The Oilers did well here to pick up Pitlick with the 31st pick. They were able to get a player with first-round pedigree in the early 2nd round. A big-bodied centerman with some underlying offensive upside who is going to the WHL next year should see his point totals take a massive leap forward, hopefully without any sacrifice to his already well-developed defensive game. I’m a little concerned that he’s spurning the NCAA program so soon to play Major Junior. Other examples of this from Gare Joyce’s “Future Greats and Heartbreaks” like Phil Kessel and Peter Mueller indicate that we should be concerned about his intellect and academic drive. In my opinion, it’s cause for concern. If he can’t commit to an education, should we also question his passion for hockey when the going gets tough? Regardless, he’s got second-line potential if he lives up to expectations.

Marincin is often overhyped as the next coming of Zdeno Chara because of his passport and gargantuan size. He’s going to be continuing those comparisons with the Prince George Cougars (WHL team of Zdeno Chara) next season, as the Oilers draft pick was recently taken first overall in the CHL’s import draft. The Oilers traded a very talented and very disgruntled prospect in Riley Nash to get him, so this pick is likely to be scrutinized more so than any other pick in the 2010 draft. He’s still a work-in progress, but he’s a very high-end prospect that the Oilers should be very happy to have obtained. At first glance, he’s got Top-4 talent written all over him, and that’s just the low-point of his potential. The Oilers may have finally found a stud two-way defenseman prospect.

Curtis Hamilton is a gamble that could either be a home-run or called third strike. He’s a walking injury at this point but has shown glimpses of high-end skill when healthy. He’s a big body and strong skater, but I can’t count on him as a blue-chipper until I see a full healthy season out of him. Potential to be a top line talent with a physical presence, or he could flame out early in his career due to injuries.

The second round of the draft turned out very well for the Oilers, but could have gone even better if they had waited two spots to select Martin Marincin. Were I GM for a day 46th would have gone to Ottawa 67s Tyler Toffoli, followed by Marincin with the 48th. There was a chance they had planned to take Toffoli with the 48th, but got scooped by LA when they traded up. Hopefully Hamilton is able to prove me wrong and pans out at least to the point where he’s an effective 3rd liner.

Round 3: Ryan Martindale

Here’s where I started to get a migrane. I don’t like the pick. At all. Didn’t like it at the time, and it’s not changing any time soon. I’m sure Ryan Martindale’s a decent enough guy and might be a half-decent hockey player, but what makes the pick worse to me is the talent that was still on the table. Jordan Weal, Kirill Kabanov, Stan Galiev, Teemu Pulkkinen were ALL still there and had elite level skill. Instead of picking the talent, we picked the passport. It’s almost as if the Oilers were scared to pick players that weren’t committed to the CHL for the next year. It’s a good developmental league yes, but to go into the draft with the mantra that you only want CHLers is a bit shortsighted.

Then I start to get into the stats about the player, and start to like Martindale a little bit. I see that he’s 6’3” and a centerman, and I start to work myself out of my doldrums. Then, I see his scouting report and cringe. Lazy? Lacksadasical? Consistency issues? Fuck. That’s not the kind of scouting report I want to see in a prospect, especially one taken in with the first 100 picks. It’s the biggest pet peeve I’ve got when it comes to addressing prospects. If you can’t be bothered to show up every night, why should I bother to write about you?

Round 4: Jeremie Blain

I really didn’t know much about him, but I like what we got here. A shining light on a bad, bad team He’s going back the Titan this year, hopefully with a better goalie (fellow Oilers prospect Olivier Roy) to play with. If he can continue to develop his offensive talents to go along with his size he could be a viable option to round out the bottom pairing on an NHL team. There was still some good talent left on the draft board in my opinion (Pulkkinen was STILL there!) but the Oilers stuck to their draft mantra of size, size, size. They found a pretty good defenseman with their necessary size quotient.

Round 5: Tyler Bunz

Another screwy pick to me. I get that the Oilers have a Pierre Macguire-sized hardon for the WHL at this point, but we’re getting a little ridiculous. Why bother burning a pick on a goalie whose projections are that of an NHL back-up when we’ve already got two of those playing for the NHL club? I don’t subscribe to the “drafting goalies is witchcraft” phenomena sweeping many blogs, but you have to pick your spots carefully. I would have drafted Jack Campbell in the Top-10, possibly even Top-5 this year because he was just that good. But past Campbell and possibly Pickard, I didn’t see another goalie that had the makings of a potential NHL starter. Again, another big body with decent stats, but the technical scouts weren’t fans. He can’t make up for his shortcomings with size like JDD/DD are able to, nor does have the quickness or agility that Olivier Roy possesses. It’s a head-scratcher.

Round 6: Brandon Davidson, Drew Czerwonka

Davidson’s a nice feel-good story, but is coming from an absolutely dreadful team in Regina. That Jordan Eberle and Jordan Weal managed to score points playing with absolutely no help was no short of shocking. I’d like to see him traded to a real WHL team to see what he could do there, as I think his stat line is influenced by increased ice-time. He’s likely a bottom-pairing defenseman at best bet, but I could be proven wrong.

Drew (Willy) Czerwonka is a goon, plain and simple. We all knew the Oilers were going to pick one eventually, but at least this time they did us the courtesy of not wasting a high pick on him. He’s a pugilist trying to become a better all-around player, and will likely have an upside similar to the recently re-signed Steve MacIntyre.

Round 7: Kristians Pelss, Kellen Jones

Who?

Exactly. We drafted a Latvian for chrissakes. And even if he’s the Latvian Wayne Gretzky, what exactly could we expect from this pick? Now I’m not saying Latvia’s incapable of producing NHL talent, as Arters Irbe was one of my favourite goalies growing up (but really only for the name and goofy helmet), but this is a downright weird pick. I’m sure the only reason he was taken in the CHL draft is because the Oilers’ owned Oil Kings saw fit to take him. That’s the beauty of owning your own junior-aged hockey team, you can put any euro you want on it. I honestly can’t project what kind of player this Pelss is going to be, because the Latvian hockey pool hasn’t produced the talent to compare him to.

Kellen Jones may be the only 2010 draft pick to not play Major Junior hockey, and that just doesn’t sit well with me but I’ll try to not let it influence my writing on him. In actuality It’ll probably increase the amount of words spent on him in the long run because I really do like the NCAA pipeline for producing talent, but more on that at a later day. Jones is a small-fry and an overager, so it’s unlikely to expect anything more than a depth player here unfortunately.

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So there you have it. Not the greatest draft in my opinion, but does have the potential to be one of the Oilers’ best in recent years. I’d like to point out the draft expectations of the Detroit Red Wings here when they say that if you can get two prospects to pan out per draft you’re doing a good job. Well the Oilers have a lot of bullets from the 2010 draft to make it work. Hall’s a sure bet, all that’s needed for a successful draft is one of the other ten players to make it. The best bets are on the three second rounders, and I like what I see in Pitlick and Marincin to cover their respective bets. The Oilers brass is counting on a healthy season from Hamilton and are praying to the Hockey Gods that Martindale’s light turns on.

Organizational depth chart - Pre-draft edition

Before the NHL draft gets underway tomorrow, I thought It’d be a fun exercise to list the Oilers’ prospects depth charts to try and find areas that need the most help. Addressing the Best Player Available format is all fine and dandy in a perfect world but communism was marketed that way too, and look what it’s done for Russian hockey talent. In reality, the Oilers are only going to be drafting BPA with their first pick, and will then look at addressing organizational needs that stock their cupboards accordingly. Using my definition of a prospect from an earlier post (http://bubbling-under.blogspot.com/2010/06/graduation.html), I’ve generated an organizational prospect depth chart that details our pre-draft areas of strength and need. Note: I didn’t include this year’s college signings such as Blair Riley because I’m unsure if they are Oilers property or Springfield’s guys. If someone could find a source that confirms them as Oilers, I’d appreciate it.

Center
Riley Nash, Anton Lander, Chris VandeVelde, Milan Kytnar, Robby Dee

This is an area of weakness for the Oilers organization. While Nash and Lander may top out as number 2 centers if the stars align, we’re looking at three number 3-4 centers (VandeVelde included here) and two center prospects that, if they make the NHL will be considered unlikely successes. The top three men on this list all possess a wide array of talents but are masters of none, especially high-end offense. The system lacks a true number 1 center prospect and has for a while (recently graduated Sam Gagner looks more like an elite number 2 than a 1st liner). There’s a prospect of such ilk at the top of some draft boards, but I don’t think he’ll be wearing the Copper and Blue.

Center should be a position where our scouting staff addresses with a few picks this year. I’d like to see our second rounders used to try and address the center depth chart. It’s unlikely we’ll get that first-line calibre center, but depth here is sorely needed.

Wing
Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, Jordan Eberle, Linus Omark, Teemu Hartikainen, Toni Rajala, Philippe Cornet, Cameron Abney, Alex Bumagin, William Quist

The strength of the prospect pipeline comes down the wings. There are both high-end offensive talents and grinder-types present in effective numbers for years to come. MPS and Eberle are both top-flight talents with Omark not far off that level. Paajarvi’s speed is a serious weapon coming down the wing, having the ability to back defenders off him and opening up space for his linemates. Eberle is one of the shiftiest players I’ve seen once he gets into the offensive zone. He really blends into the background and is forgotten until the puck gets to his stick, usually in a dangerous scoring area. Omark’s puck-skills are off the charts and has been able to put up consistent scoring numbers playing against men in two different and high-quality Euro leagues despite his small stature. All three have legitimate shots at being top-6 wingers for the Oilers in the near future. Toni Rajala is coming off a productive season where he held down a top-6 winger role for a very talented Brandon Wheat Kings team the entire season while adjusting to the North American style of hockey.

The list of foot soldiers is a promising one too. Led by Hartikainen who has an outside chance at seeing top-6 duty, the bottom-6 wingers feature players willing to get their hands dirty. Hartikainen has had great success in the Finnish SM-Liiga, which is known for being the closest thing to North American hockey stylistically. He’s a big body with adequate skating and is willing to work hard to embrace the defensive side of hockey. Philippe Cornet was a big scorer in junior hockey, but is unlikely to be filling that role at the next level. He’ll have to look up to current Oiler farmhand Liam Reddox for inspiration if he is to make the NHL someday. Cornet possesses that grit and sandpaper that is necessary for 3-4 line players to be effective, but his small stature might be a hindrance. Tough guy Cameron Abney is not a favourite of mine, but I can’t downplay his pugilistic prowess. There’s no doubt that if he makes the NHL it won’t be for his offensive instincts. Like Zach Stortini before him, he’ll need to become a better-rounded player if he’s to be seen as anything more than the token tough guy.

The prospect pool also includes Alex Bumagin and William Quist, but my mom always taught me that if I didn’t have anything nice to say, to shut my gob. Nuff Said.

This is a position of strength for the organization moving forward and it’s only going to get stronger with our first overall selection this year. The addition of Hall (it’s not 100% sure yet, but I’ll be surprised if Seguin’s selected) provides the club with two top-line Left Wing prospects. It’s an interesting place to have such talent but I’m not about to look a gift horse in the mouth. Unless the scouting staff is very high on another winger or a highly ranked prospect finds himself sliding down the draft board I doubt that another winger will be selected this year.

Defense
Jeff Petry, Alex Plante, Taylor Chorney, Johan Motin, Troy Hesketh, Kyle Bigos, Jordan Bendfeld

The defensive pipeline at this point is filled with more potential than product, and I’m not sure there’s a lot of promising talent here. If we blue-sky for a moment, Petry, Plante and Chorney could all become Top-4 defenders one day, but they all still have a long way to go to reach that potential.

Realistically, there are a lot of 3rd pairing defenders here as everyone not named Petry has a significant hole in their game. It’s like the characters from the Wizard of Oz here. Plante has no skating, Chorney has no size, Motin has no offense, Hesketh has no able-body, Bigos has no brain, Bendfeld has no chance. The fortunate thing though is that most of our blueline prospects are still young, there’s room and time to improve their game.

Petry remains the prospect most likely to fill a Top-4 role with the big club. His combination of size, aggressive play and offensive instincts make him an ideal defender for the new NHL. He starts his professional career this year after a less-than-memorable amateur tryout last year. I’m hoping that he’s got more room to grow and improve than his Taylor Chorney-like +/- indicated.

This is an area that the Oilers need to improve. Maybe not as much as their center pipeline, but the club is lacking in Top-4 prospects. I’m hopeful that current Oilers Ryan Whitney, Tom Gilbert and Ladislav Smid will continue to be around and effective Top-4 defenders for a long time. It’ll help keep the pressure off the organizational defence pool until this area can be properly addressed.

Goal
Olivier Roy, Andrew Perugini, Bryan Pitton

Goaltending is a difficult area to predict, and it’s often a waste of precious draft selections to pick a goalie. We’re seeing that demonstrated by the Oilers in the last few years. There have been few selections used on goaltenders, and the results are a very thin prospect depth chart between the pipes.

Olivier Roy is the best of the bunch and still has one year of junior hockey eligibility remaining. He was recently traded a couple of times, eventually settling with the Acadie-Bathurst Titan where he will likely resume his duties as starting goaltender. He’s been a starter in the QMJHL since he was 16 and has seen a lot of puck over his career. After a slow start to the recently completed season his numbers began to steadily improve. He’s a goalie that’s been on the radar of Hockey Canada for ages now and has a good chance at making the U-20 squad this year unless his development takes a big leap backwards. He’s a small but highly agile goaltender with solid angles and reflexes. It’s very hard to project goalies a few years down the road, but he’s never seemed like the type who will be an NHL starter unless he takes the journeyman road and eventually lands on his feet somewhere.

The rest of the depth chart leaves prospect junkies wanting. There is no tender in the system that is anywhere close to pushing Roy for the number one spot. Perugini and Pitton have both struggled at the AHL level and while Pitton was able to get a few call-ups to the big club this year, it was merely to serve as Deslauriers’ back-up while Devan Dubnyk was getting some playing time in down on the farm to keep him fresh. Both Perugini and Pitton are long-shots to ever see NHL playing time, barring injuries from goalies higher up the Oilers’ ladder.

Goaltending is an area of weakness for the Oilers organization, but unless Jack Campbell falls to the second round (highly unlikely, he’s the best goalie to come around since Carey Price) there’s no reason to be spending a draft pick on a goalie this year in my opinion. The best bet is to follow in Brian Burke’s footsteps and address the goaltending depth chart by signing undrafted free agents from Europe or the US college ranks.

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Taking the above information into account, I think Stu MacGregor and his staff would do well to load up on centers and defensemen this year. With the likely selection of Taylor Hall with the first overall pick, it’s unlikely we’ll get our top-ranked center prospect this year. There is however a chance at obtaining a couple of Top-4 calibre defensive prospects with our two second-round selections if the scouts are high on certain players. I’ve previously identified a some centers and defensemen of interest for our second pick (#31 overall), and believe that either Charlie Coyle or Alex Petrovic should be targeted at that point. After that, all bets are off.

With any luck, the organizational prospect depth chart will look a lot different and well-rounded when I look to analyze this again in about a month’s time. Come Saturday night we’ll know where the organization is headed and barring trades, I’ll have 9 new young men to talk about in the coming months.

Prospects of Interest (2nd round): Alex Petrovic

Today’s prospect, shown here (#77) being filled in by Dylan McIlrath, is a hard-hitting defenseman from the Dub who has seen his stock drop considerably from where he was one season ago.

Alex Petrovic, an Edmonton native playing for Red Deer is a 6’4” body breaking machine with underrated offensive skills. He’s still among the most feared defenders in the WHL even though he had his clock cleaned by fellow 2010 draft-eligible prospect Dylan McIlrath at this year’s Top Prospects game. Some questioned his abilities after that quick bout, but as THN magazine puts it:

“Some scouts point to the fact Petrovic was beaten in a fight by Dylan McIlrath in the prospects game as the negative turning point. It shouldn’t have been, because McIlrath beats up pretty much everyone he fights.”

Here’s the youtube clip of the fight. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nmo1jlN4VHg

I think it’s important to present this because even though Petrovic gets rag-dolled around, it shows the kid’s got balls. He wanted to test himself against the best on what is probably one of the biggest prospect showcases. Full credit to him.

The Rankings:
THN: 24
ISS: Not Rated
CSB: 29

Known more as a defence-first blueliner, Petrovic saw his point totals more than double this season (from 13 to 27) and his goal totals sky-rocket from one last year to eight this season, all while playing in nine fewer games. His offensive output brings to mind the scouting report of Alex Plante from 2007, which said in no specific words that this offense wouldn’t likely translate well to the NHL game. It’s fair then to expect any offense from Petrovic at the NHL level to be a welcome bonus to his skillset.

Already standing 6’4” and weighing in at 193 pounds, Petrovic will be an intimidating force on someone’s blueline once he completely fills out. Gaining another 15-20 pounds on his large frame would allow for even more damage from his already physical brand of hockey. He’s not just hitting people because he’s bigger and can do some damage, he’s hitting people because he likes it. An interview from McKeen’s hockey (http://mckeenshockey.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1078205) suggests we might have a new Scott Stevens on our hands here:

“My strength I believe, is my physical play with my body checks”

He also believes the things he can do with his long reach is a strength to his game, both in breaking up scoring chances and creating a good first pass out of his defensive zone. The coaching staff in Red Deer has had him working on his defensive game, and Alex seems to have bought into the system well. He’s taking care of his own end first but would also like to develop a quick offensive transition to his game, being able to quickly join the rush after a turnover.

Mike Remmerde, a well known and respected blogger/reporter has a slightly more glass-half-empty view on Petrovic. He lists his skating as a positive for a kid his size, but is quick to point out defensive lapses in the defensive zone:

“This guy’s reactions in the defensive zone just flat out confuse me. I just can’t understand how a guy with this kind of agility gets beat so often in his own end.”

I’m not too worried about these reported defensive liabilities because with proper coaching they can be eliminated. Let the kid make mistakes now and learn from them, it’s better to have these weaknesses exposed early on so they can be monitored and corrected at the junior level.

The Oilers organization has been high on these big, physical players at the last couple of drafts. They’ve taken hard-nosed defenders early in the past in Peckham (2006), Plante (2007), Motin (2008) and the forward Abney (2009) with some success. The blueline pipeline is thin as it stands right now with, to my knowledge, not a single junior aged defenseman in the system. It’s sure to be a lean couple of years without some changes in draft tendencies this year.

Petrovic fits the Oilers needs of defenders and improving team toughness, and that’s why I can see him being selected with the 31st pick. While there may be a couple higher ranked forwards left on the draft board, Petrovic could be a target for an early second-round selection based on organizational need. I may not agree with picking for position, but Petrovic is someone I’d consider making an exception for. Early projections and mock-drafts had him pegged as a sure first-rounder, Petrovic remains a potential Top-4 shutdown defender.

Prospects of interest (2nd Round): Jason Zucker

Today’s prospect has a chance at being the first Las Vegas born/trained player to set foot in the NHL.

Jason Zucker is a 5’11” winger from the US NTDP who is not expected to be a premier scorer at the next level, he’s already made the commitment to defensive hockey while using his excellent skating abilities to be an effective forechecker and penalty-killer. Said one scout interviewed in THN’s draft preview:

“Because of his speed, he gets chances, but can’t do it [score] naturally. I see him as a pently-killer, shutdown guy who might get 10 goals”

The Rankings:
THN: 54
ISS: 30
CSB: 51NA

Zucker has been playing with the US National Team for the past two years with varying degrees of offensive success. His totals last year (22GP 11-7-18) suggest there is some offensive talent there. He seems like more of a shooter than a playmaker. He got that opportunity to be a premier scorer at the most recent U-20 WJC’s, where he was lining up with offensive stalwarts in Jordan Schroeder and Ryan Bourque. His two goals contributed to Team USA’s gold-medal winning performance. Said Zucker when asked how he took to this role (http://mckeenshockey.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1068190):

“I was there to try and help them [Schroeder and Bourque] out and help the team win and I thought I played a really good tournament.”

And “play a good tournament” he surely did, at least to my eyes. Getting to watch the Americans at the most recent tournament, I was very surprised by the play of this un-heralded draft-eligible talent. His speed and constant forecheck was a pain in the Canadians’ side throughout the tournament. It wasn’t the big-name talent that wowed me at the WJCs this year. The play of foot soldiers like Zucker and Jerry D’Amigo set the tone of a new look for the Americans. For the first time in forever, they brought a team to an International tournament, not just a smattering of individuals. But I digress...

Zucker seems to be a player in constant need to improve his game. In an interview with McKeen’s, when asked about areas he can improve upon, he ticks off a list longer than a 7-year old’s Christmas wishlist:

“I think I need to work on quite a bit of things. Everybody can work on things to get better. I think I can work on my shooting, my passing, my skating, offensive zone, defensive coverage. Every bit of my game, I can work on...in order to play at the level, you have to be a complete player”.

While some may look at his self-scouting report and see a flawed player, I tend to look at him with a positive eye. Anyone can say they’d like to get better, but it takes a different kind of person to self-evaluate to the point Jason has. He knows what he needs to go do, and proper coaching can adapt his flaws into an effective player.

Zucker is committed to Denver University, but seems like he might be willing to play major junior if the shoe fits. His rights are owned by Seattle of the Western Hockey League.

Jason Zucker would be a good fit for the Oilers organization because he fits the mold of the role players every successful team seems to have in spades. His scouting reports read like those of a Draper/Maltby type player. Hard forechecker, solid PKer with the ability to provide a little offense if thrust into that role. He’d take maybe a little longer to develop than some of the more high-end prospects, but with a massive influx of talent from the prospect ranks in the near future, the Oilers can afford to be patient with the Nevada native. He doesn’t quite have the talent for me to consider taking him with the 31st overall selection, but he’d be a feather in the scouting department’s cap at #48.

Prospects of interest (2nd Round): Quinton Howden

There’s a good chance today’s prospect may not in fact make it out of the second round. If fortune smiles on the Oilers, here’s hoping Stu MacGregor is sprinting up to the draft podium to open the second day of this year’s NHL draft to draft winger Quinton Howden, the first overall pick from the WHL’s 2007 bantam draft. He’s a big boy at 6’3” 183 and still has room to fill out his impressive frame in two more seasons with the Dub’s Moose Jaw Warriors.

The rankings:
THN: 23
ISS: 16
CSB: 19NA

I’ll be blunt here, I really do have a vested interest in watching this kid develop. He grew up half an hour from me, in the same hometown (and likely through the same bantam programs) as a cousin of mine. I’d love nothing more than to see a local talent putting on the Oildrop in a couple years time. I’ll do my best not to go all Pierre McGuire... but I promise nothing.

Coming off the potentially overbearing pressure that comes with being a high bantam draft pick (Philippe Cornet apparently couldn’t handle it), he struggled in his rookie season with the Warriors, putting up 30 points in 62 games. His transition from year one this year is quite impressive. He more than doubled his goal totals (from 13 to 28) while putting up exactly one point per game (28-37-65). It’s still not a huge offensive number, but he led his team in scoring as a 17-year old (the next four highest scorers were 19 or older). That speaks both to the maturity of the player, and the lack of scoring surrounding Howden. Expect his point totals to continue rising next year, if he’s not playing NHL hockey somewhere.

As a player, he’s been known to wear a lot of hats. While playing for his club team, he’s their go-to scorer. Internationally, he’s more likely to be a foot soldier and energy-type player. A very complete player in all three zones is what you’re going to get out of Howden as a 17-year old. At this point in most careers of NHL prospects, they have the back-checking abilities as Rob Schremp. Given his two-way abilities, it’s hard to imagine he’d have slipped past the Devils if they had retained their first round pick (Thanks, Ilya!).

One thing that may allow him to slip to #31 is his lack of one true talent. He’s a big body, but no scouting report I’ve read suggests he’s anything more than an average skater with moderate hockey sense, and lacks the ability to use his 6’3” frame to clear opponents out of his way. He’s one of the safest bets to make the NHL one day, but in no way is he a special talent at this point.

I think he’d be a perfect fit on the Oilers in a few years. He’s a big body who can score and has at least thought about the defensive side of hockey. He’d be a guy you could slot anywhere in your line-up and have success. If you want a big body to create space for Sam Gagner/Andrew Cogliano, throw him into the top-6 and tell him to go to the net. If you want a checking line with Shawn Horcoff, you know he’s not going to willingly give up goals against. To me, I see a lot of the kinds of things we’re seeing now in Dustin Penner. It’s kind of early to project him to our highest paid winger, but dammit he looks like a player to me. He's got all that talent, with a big body, a good home-grown Canadian kid, monster, strong...muscular...legs....

Sorry. I should stop now.

Prospects of interest (2nd Round): Charlie Coyle

The next installment of Bubbling Under's prospects of interest segment looks at a big versatile forward who has likely spent a few family dinners across the table from former NHLer Tony Amonte.

Charlie Coyle is a 6'2" 202lb right-handed forward committed to Boston University next year.

The rankings:

THN: 33
ISS: 27
CSB: 24NA

Coyle is primarily a center, but some have suggested he'll be more effective as a winger (listed as RW) at higher levels. His ability to muscle smaller players off the puck along the boards is a strength, writes Redline Report's Kyle Woodlief (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2010-06-01-forward-prospects_N.htm). He's a hard-working player who will be responsible in both ends of the ice.

He's a self-described weight room junkie, which was likely the cause of his stellar performances at the recent NHL draft combine, remarks The Terrier Hockey Fan Blog (http://terrierhockey.blogspot.com/2010/06/bourque-named-mvp-as-hershey-repeats.html). The Oilers have a couple of NHLers who themselves are fitness freaks, with varying degrees of on-ice success (think Shawn Horcoff versus Ethan Moreau here), so I'm unsure if this is necessarily a positive for Coyle. He could go to BU and add another 15-20 pounds to his frame, which might make him very tough to handle coming down the wing in about 4 years.

His offensive upside may not be enough to warrant a top-six spot on an NHL team, but like Riley Nash in the 2007 draft he's going to be an NHLer once he leaves school. More of a playmaker type than a scorer, he uses his teammates well and is creative with his puckhandling, writes Woodlief. He's one of the safest bets in this year's draft. Central Scouting compares him to former NHLer Bob Sweeney (639 NHL games; best offensive season 80GP 15-33-48 115PIM). Not exactly a flashy player, but one of those character bottom-6 guys every successful team employs.

Important to note that Edmonton was one of his scheduled interviews during the combine and are among the 23 teams to interview him (http://www.hockeyjournal.com/news/2010/05/25_coylelooking.php). Edmonton appears to either have special interest in the player, or Coyle really has a thing for cup winners. Said Coyle on day two of the combine:

Monday night when we were eating, I saw Kevin Lowe walk in and knew who he was right away. Tuesday, when I went to Edmonton it was kind of special to meet him.

It looks like Coyle is getting a lot of attention from the scouting departments. Whether it's because he's high on everyone's draft boards or that he's an unknown quantity is hard to determine. Going to an unknown Junior A program at South Shore leads me to believe scouts are still trying to get a read on him.

I think he'd be a good fit for the Oilers prospect pool in much the same way Chris VandeVelde was talked about. With our first round selection providing the scoring, we'll still need guys able to play a strong two-way game four or five years down the road. Barring a change of playing style while at BU, we're not looking at a home-run acquisition from Coyle out of the #31 slot. Just a solid NHL prospect with a high percentage of playing in the NHL one day.