Bubbling Under

What to do at #31?

2011-06-24T22:34:00.002-05:00

The first round is done. All the glitz and glamour of staring at a TV for 4 hours is over, and now the Oilers have some decisions to make. After all, we still have the 31st overall pick which is nothing to sneeze at, as it should still net us a first-round talent. Who is still available with this pick?

Brandon Saad: LW Saginaw, OHL

From Bob McKenzie: Strengths - possesses all the tools. with size, strength, shot, skating and hands all above average. Capable of driving to the net and working effectively along the wall. Weaknesses - Doesn't show up to compete every night,lacks passion at times. Left scouts wanting more effort and production. NHL Upside - Has the physical tools to be an imposing top-six forward, but will need to improve his work ethic.

Rocco Grimaldi: C US NTDP

Bob again: Strengths - A feisty little warrior. when he's going his feet never stop, fearless on the puck, character guy, plays hard, strong core and lower body, likes to score goals, skilled puck carrier and sniper. Weaknesses - He's only 5-6. Can try to do too much by himself and overhandle the puck. NHL Upside - Has drawn comparison to Theo Fleury and Marty St. Louis. His lack of height shouldn't hinder him from becoming a top-six forward at the NHL level.

Ty Rattie: RW Portland, WHL

Bob: Strengths - Skilled winger who sees the ice well, gifted around the net, swift skater and top-end puck skills. Weaknesses - more of a projection than Rattie, has to build his strength and continue working on his all-around game. NHL Upside - draws some comparisons to Jordan Eberle. May be a top-six forward with time if he's willing to compete hard enough, but he's raw, will need to add strength.

Boone Jenner: C Oshawa, OHL

Bob: Strengths - Exemplary work ethic and leadership qualities, fights through everything. Strong desire to succeed, has a physical edge to his game. Keen hockey sense, above average vision, anticipation and playmaking abilities, plays in all situations. Weaknesses - Skating is not great, short stride and a wide track, can't stop and start very well. NHL Upside - Will be a favourite of his coaches wherever he plays. Has the desire to succeed that leads most to believe he will overcome skating deficiencies. Will likely wear a letter for an NHL team some day.

Tomas Jurco: RW St John, QMJHL

Bob: Strengths - Has top ten skills with elite puckhandling abilities and excellent skating agility, has all the physical attributes to be a star. Weaknesses - very inconsistent, is a star one night and accomplishes little the next. Not overly gritty, tends to stay to the outside of the play. NHL Upside - Risky pick in the first round who may be a top-two winger (think a more skilled Michael Frolik), or could struggle for ice time due to inconsistencies.

John Gibson: G US NTDP

Bob: Strengths - Composed, technically sound, competitive. Bounces back strongly from letting in bad goals, good mental strength. Good puckhandler, decent glove and quickness. Plays soundly in big-game situations. Weaknesses - No elite qualities to his game, not tremendously gifted athletically. Must work on his consistency. NHL Upside - Will likely be the first goalie selected and in a few years vie strongly for NHL playing time. May only be a backup, but a poised one with winning pedigree.

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Still a lot of talent here and the Oilers have a lot of different player types to choose from, although there doesn’t appear to be a defenseman that stands out amongst the crowd of forwards. I’ve also included goalie Gibson in the mix because, well he was a projected first rounder and the consensus best goalie of the draft.

We’re not going to get an offensive juggernaut with our second round pick, I think that’s fairly certain. Should we still target an offensive talent like Ty Rattie in the hopes that we get lucky?I don’t think he fits the draft mantra of the Oilers. He’s undersized and unlike RNH, no sure thing that he’ll be an offensive force. He also lacks the secondary skills that ensure he’d at least be a serviceable 3-4 line guy. The same argument goes for Tomas Jurco. He’s got the size Rattie lacks but questions about his desire and compete level scare me off.

Like 5 in Monty Python’s Holy Grail, Rocco Grimaldi is right out. Oilers fans would riot in the streets over the selection of the smallest player eligible for this year’s draft.

After deliberation, the guy I like best at #31 is Boone Jenner. He’s not going to make the NHL due to his offensive skills though they’re present, but he’s not going to take a shift off. A very Anton Lander-esque pick.

Whoever we pick tomorrow, it will be done after a good night’s sleep and hopefully much deliberation. We’ve made two solid selections thus far in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Oscar Klefbom, but adding a third blue-chipper from the 2011 draft would be another feather in the cap of our scouting department.

In Stu We Trust

With the first overall selection in the 2011 Entry Draft... A Bubbling Under mockdraft

2011-06-22T13:39:00.008-05:00

The NHL draft is only days away and as many other bloggers, I’m wasting way too much of my free time scouring over all the literature I can get my hands on that discuss a bunch of 18-year old kids. It’s my favourite time of the hockey year.

This year I thought I’d put all my reading to use and create a mockdraft instead of following suit and putting out another Top-30 list. Lowetide has already done a couple this year and as always they’re well thought out, including the lists from SpOILer and Blue Bullet that he’s put up on his site. As usual, Bob McKenzie has his out and it always laps the field in terms of accuracy. I really enjoyed getting in the heads of the 30 teams’ General Managers in order to identify what exactly their team needs from Friday’s first round.

In compiling my mockdraft I relied heavily on Bob’s list as it is the gold standard. Using THN’s NHL team prospect reports as a guide, I devised a plan for each team as to their prospect strengths and weaknesses. Each team’s work in the previous five NHL entry drafts provided insight into their drafting tendencies in making a selection, there was no way Edmonton was going to Russia and Brian Burke was definitely staying in North America for example.

Without further ado, Edmonton is on the clock...

1: Edmonton:

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Taylor Hall LW, Magnus Paajarvi LW, Jordan Eberle RW, Sam Gagner C, Alex Plante D, Riley Nash C

Team Needs: Teams finishing last place consistently need everything. Unfortunately with no clear-cut #1 pick this year this gives our GM “options”. They need help at C, on defence, and in goal.

Pick: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer

2: Colorado:

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Joey Hishon C, Matt Duchene C, Kevin Shattenkirk D, Chris Stewart RW

Team Needs: Colorado could use some productive wingers to compliment established centers Duchene, Paul Stastny and Ryan O’Reilly, but could also use another stud blueliner to compliment the offensive talents of recently acquired Eric Johnson. Worth noting that they have stayed in Canada for their first rounders the past five years.

Pick: Gabriel Landeskog, LW Kitchener

3: Florida

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Erik Gudbranson D, Nick Bjugstad F Quinton Howden LW, Dmitry Kulikov D, Keaton Ellerby, Michael Frolik

Team Needs: Florida’s gone full-tilt rebuild like the Oilers, starting in earnest last year at the draft where they made three selections to address three needs. They could use a C here and are unlikely to take a defenseman with Gudbranson in the stable. All their first round selections last year under new GM Dale Tallon were large mammals.

Pick: Sean Couturier, C Drummondville

4: New Jersey

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Jacob Josefson C, Mattias Tedenby RW, Matt Corrente D
Team Needs: New Jersey is in an unfamiliar position this year picking as high as they are, and they aren’t likely to screw this up. They’ve been lacking a stud on defence since the days of Scott Neidermayer and there’s a damn good blueliner available. If negotiations are not going well with Zach Parise, they may be tempted to take a forward here.

Pick: Adam Larsson, D Skelleftea

5: NY Islanders

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Nino Niederreiter LW, John Tavares C Calvin DeHaan D, Joshua Bailey C, Kyle Okposo RW

Team Needs: The Islanders need help pretty much everywhere, so they’re bound to get something good in the 5-hole. They aren’t known to go for defence with their first pick, as 2008 first rounder DeHaan was their second selection that year. There are still both forwards and defensemen available here, but expect the Islanders to go forward here to provide a complimentary center to John Tavares.

Pick: Jonathan Huberdeau, C St. John

6: Ottawa Senators

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Jared Cowan, Erik Karlsson, Jim O’Brien C, Nick Foligno LW

Team Needs: Goaltending and defence sure aren’t needs here. Ottawa has to upgrade their forward corps if they’re going to be taken seriously in the coming years. There are two options available here, and both are good fits. Ottawa has taken both from the CHL and Sweden in the past, but I think that intangibles will win out here.

Pick: Mika Zibanejad, C Djurgarden

7: Winnipeg Winnipegs

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Alex Burmistrov C, Evander Kane C, Zach Bogosian D, Bryan Little C

Team Needs: A name and logo. Outside of that, Winnipeg needs a center to build their new team around. There are some defensemen available here that would fit BPA, but Winnipeg doesn’t have a glaring need for them as their blueline is young and signed long-term.

Pick: Ryan Strome, C Niagara

8: Columbus

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Ryan Johansen C, John Moore D, Nikita Filatov C, Jake Voracek RW, Derick Brassard C

Team Needs: Columbus has historically been thin on the blueline and avoided drafting them with high picks. There aren’t many forwards available at this point in the draft, but there are some dandy defenders here. With John Moore in the fold they can forego the offensive creativity and focus on the snarl that left when Adam Foote left town.

Pick: Dougie Hamilton, D Niagara

9: Boston

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Tyler Seguin C, Jordan Caron RW, Joe Colborne C, Zach Hamill C, Phil Kessel C

Team Needs: The recent Stanley Cup champions must be over the moon with that Kessel trade, but that’s old news. Boston can afford to stockpile the best talent available. If pressed, I’d say they could use a blueliner to feed Chara on the PP.

Pick: Ryan Murphy, D Kitchener

10: Minnesota

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Mikael Granlund F, Nick Leddy D, Tyler Cuma D, Colton Gilles L, James Sheppard C

Team Needs: Minnesota is undergoing a franchise transition of sorts. With less emphasis on an ever apparent defensive presence, their prospect pool requires a shot of offense. They might be scared off from selecting a defenseman here as their most recent picks have either been foolishly traded away (Leddy) or failing to live up to first-round status (Cuma). Unfortunately for Minnesota, the talent level falls off after the first nine players.

Pick: Sven Bartschi, LW Portland

11: Colorado

Team Needs: With gritty winger Landeskog in the fold, Colorado can turn its attention to other areas of concern. Calvin Pickard, selected last year, lessens the need for a goaltender. The graduation of Stefan Elliot from junior opens a space in the pipeline for a puck-moving blueliner. The “shy away from Europe” theory again applies here.

Pick: Nathan Beaulieu, D St. John

12: Carolina

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Jeff Skinner RW, Phillippe Paradis LW, Zack Boychuk C, Brandon Sutter C

Team Needs: The Hurricanes hit a home-run last year with the selection of Skinner, who will be a staple for the next decade as a top-6 winger for Carolina. They’ve got depth at C and some intriguing defensive prospects. Another team that doesn’t like to take Euros with first rounders.

Pick: Jamie Oleksiak, D Northeastern

13: Calgary

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Tim Erixon D, Greg Nemicz C, Michael Backlund C, Leland Irving G

Team Needs: Calgary was recently spurned by 2009 first rounder Tim Erixson, easily the top prospect in their system. This defection exposed their lack of prospect depth and was a loss that Calgary frankly could not afford. They managed to turn a bad situation into a less crippling one with their return from the Rangers, but this could scare them off of Euros for a while. They’ve needed prospects to contribute offence forever.

Pick: Mark Scheifele, C Barrie

14: Dallas

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Jack Campbell G, Scott Glennie RW, Ivan Vishnevsky

Team Needs: Besides ownership stability, the Stars need players who can score. They’re about to lose their offensive force in Brad Richards and, while it’s impossible to suggest an 18-year old will step up and fill that void, they’re going to need the help eventually. Defence isn’t the greatest concern in the world here and they picked up their stud goalie last year. While a center would be the best bet, and Zack Phillips is available, I see them opting again (as was the case with Scott Glennie) for a large winger who can score goals.

Pick: Joel Armia, RW Assat

15: NY Rangers

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Dylan McIlrath, Chris Kreider C, Michael Del Zotto D, Alexi Cherepanov (RIP), Bobby Sanguinetti

Team Needs: New York doesn’t really need anything particular here, just a player they can eventually plug in and allow him to play to his strengths. They don’t have a drafting philosophy in the first round as I can see and have no problems going to Europe to make important selections. They’ve got enough snarl on the blueline with McIlrath and Pavel Valentenko and enough skill on the wing to go a long way. I’m making this selection on the hope that Del Zotto regains his form.

Pick: Zach Phillips, C St. John

16: Buffalo

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Mark Pysyk D, Zack Kassian RW, Tyler Myers D, Tyler Ennis C, Dennis Persson D

Team Needs: An offensive center with size would certainly fit the bill here to compliment their hard-working wing prospects. With Myers already winning awards at the NHL level and Pysyk eventually contributing solid two-way play they have no need to go after a defenseman again. They avoid Europe like the plague and have shown a tendency to look to the WHL in recent drafts.

Pick: Mark McNeill, C Prince Albert

17: Monteal

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Jarred Tinordi D, Louis Leblanc C, Ryan McDonough D, David Fischer D

Team Needs: Montreal has only minor needs at this point and can afford to draft according to their preferences instead of BPA. They love the NCAA programs (Tinordi was originally committed to NCAA) and will likely stick to that route again. They lack a dynamic offensive contributor in their prospect pipeline but those aren’t available at this point. There are some highly talented Swedes available on teh blueline, but I don’t see that as an option for Montreal.

Pick: J T Miller, C US NTDP

18: Chicago

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Kevin Hayes F, Dylan Olsen D, Kyle Beach LW, Pat Kane RW, Jon Toews C

Team Needs: More cap space. They’ve got great depth everywhere right now, having fleeced every trading partner they had after being forced to offload salary last offseason. They’ve got speed, offence, ruggedness, grit and goaltending. The best player still available (in North America) is who they’ll grab.

Pick: Duncan Siemens, D Saskatoon

19: Edmonton

Team Needs: They still need a ton of help but having picked up their stud centerman the Oilers can focus on the remaining hole in their prospect system; blueline offence. I’ve seen many mockdrafts with the Oilers taking the likes of Oleksiak, Siemens and Joe Morrow here but this isn’t the player type the Oilers have need of. The prospect pool is filled with stay at home or two-way types (Theo Peckham, Colten Teubert, Alex Plante, Jeff Petry all fit that mold), picking another one at this stage doesn’t make sense to me. Especially when there are some offensive defensemen who are available and are higher rated.

Pick: Jonas Brodin, D Farjestad

20: Phoenix

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Brandon Gormley D, Mark Visentin G, Oliver Ekman-Larsson D, Mikael Boedker LW, Viktor Tikhonov LW, Kyle Turris C, Nick Ross D, Peter Mueller C, Chris Summers D

Team Needs: Phoenix has had more first round draft picks the past 5 years than any other team in the NHL. Problem is they’ve picked some duds, and the rest have failed to live up to first round billing (O E-L excluded of course). They could use a center, as Kyle Turris is still struggling to be more than a 3rd liner. They’ve picked a little bit of everything in recent years, there doesn’t seem to be a tendency with the Phoenix scouting department. This is a bit of a reach pick.

Pick: Rocco Grimaldi, C US NTDP

21: Ottawa

Team Needs: With Mika Zibanejad home and cooling, the Senators have another opportunity to improve their forward depth. As stated earlier there’s no reason to consider D this year, unless there’s a guy left who is head and shoulders above the rest. I think they go forward, and they stay within Ontario to get it.

Pick: Matt Puempel, LW Peterborough

22: Anaheim

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Cam Fowler D, Emerson Etem C, Peter Holland C, Kyle Palmeiri C, Jake Gardiner D, Logan Mac Millan LW, Mark Mitera D

Team Needs: If it weren’t for the meteoric rise of Jeff Skinner, the Ducks would have walked away with the steal of the draft last year in Cam Fowler. He’s going to be a #1 in a few short years but could use some help around him. They’re deep at forward, blessed with skill, size and two-way abilities but lack a little bit of nasty. This pick could end up being Tyler Biggs, but I think they’ll like a defenseman here.

Pick: Joe Morrow, D Portland

23: Pittsburgh

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Beau Bennett F, Simon Despres D, Angelo Esposito C, Jordan Staal C

Team Needs: The search continues for wingers that can play with the best centers in the league. They made a dandy selection last year with Beau Bennett, but should continue to add to their cupboards. Their defensemen are getting on in years but Simon Despres should be able to slot in as a top-4 guy in short order. I’ve got two players in mind here, and I’m taking size and speed over a consistent effort.

Pick: Tomas Jurco, RW St. John

24: Detroit

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Riley Sheahan F, Thomas McCollum G, Brendan Smith D

Team Needs: Detroit does not, nor has it really ever needed, anything. They will continue to go about their business to find the best ranked player regardless of where he came from. Lidstrom’s eventual retirement may be playing in their minds, and they could very well look to Sweden for another defenseman.

Pick: Oscar Klefbom, D Farjestad

25: Toronto

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Nazem Kadri C, Luke Schenn C, Jiri Tlusty, F

Team Needs: Regardless of how much we make fun of Toronto, they’ve done a good job in the recent past to shore up their organizational depth pretty much across the board. They won’t go goalie, they prefer to sign them when they’re a little older. The Leafs have better depth at forward than they do on the blueline at this point due to good drafting and trading. Brian Burke will pick a kid from North America, you can set your watch to that.

Pick: Brandon Saad, LW Saginaw

26: Washington

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Evgeny Kuznetsov F, Marcus Johansson C, Anton Gustafsson F, Karl Alzner D, Nicklas Backstrom C

Team Needs: Washington needs heart. They’ve got all the talent in the world but lack a true leader. That’s not the easiest thing to find, but there are some real character players in this year’s draft who could fit the bill here. A defenseman would also be nice, as they have enough offensive firepower to field a second team that could still beat the Edmonton Oilers. There are many options for the Capitals, who could again try for a home-run with someone like Viktor Rask. Very underrated scouting department.

Pick: Boone Jenner, C Oshawa

27: Tampa Bay

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Brett Connolly RW, Viktor Hedman D, Carter Ashton RW, Steven Stamkos C, Riku Helenius G

Team Needs: Tampa Bay is under new management, so throw the book out the window. The procurement department did well before Steve Yzerman was placed in the GM chair, picking up big productive bodies and the occasional superstar. The selection of Brett Connolly last year proved Yzerman is not scared off by injuries when drafting players. Their defensive pipeline is not strong, but there are forwards ranked higher. I think they continue along with their trend of drafting large mammals with secondary skills.

Pick: Tyler Biggs, RW US NTDP

28: San Jose

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Charlie Coyle F, Logan Couture C, Ty Wishart D

Team Needs: San Jose has achieved the level of “Detroit-model” in the sense that they don’t have to go after a specific position at the draft. They’ll gladly take whatever player is available to them and work them into their system when they’re ready. Lots of size and nastiness on the blueline already, but are a bit thin on the wing. Versatility is a big plus in San Jose’s system.

Pick: Niklas Jensen, LW/RW Oshawa

29: Vancouver

Past 5 drafts 1st rounder: Jordan Schroeder C, Cody Hodgson C, Patrick White C, Michael Grabner F

Team Needs: Vancouver made it to within one game of the Stanley Cup this year, and as such don’t need much at the NHL level. Their prospect pipeline however, could stand an injection of consistent talent. Recent first rounders Schroeder and Hodgson have stalled at the AHL level and White likely won’t even get that far in the Canucks’ system. The blueline was forced to provide replacements throughout the year and rookies Chris Tanev and Lee Sweatt proved capable. They need scoring and won’t likely go the college route any time soon.

Pick: Ty Rattie, LW Portland

30: Toronto

Team Needs: With big winger Saad added to their prospect collection, Toronto can add another Brian Burke type player to their stable.

Pick: Scott Mayfield, D Youngstown

31: Edmonton

The best of the rest begins the second round for Edmonton on day two of the draft. Stu MacGregor will be able to re-stack his deck and go out on Saturday and find the best player who slipped through the cracks. I would have loved if Tyler Biggs were still available as I think he’s exactly what the Oilers need, but will have to look elsewhere. Not typically the type to go looking for the home-run, Edmonton will likely pick the safe player at 31.

Pick: Rickard Rakell, RW Plymouth

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That’s the draft as I see it. Looking back, my draft had 29 of the 30 players Bob McKenzie slotted as first-rounders. He’s the foremost word on the scouting front these days, and when in doubt, I trusted his list.

Disagree with my picks? I’m sure you will. Let me know in the comments section, and I’ll try and give a more in-depth reasoning as to why I made my selections.

2011 Draft POI: Jonas Brodin

2011-06-16T10:07:00.002-05:00

Next up in our selection of prospects believed to be available with the Oilers second first-round pick is Jonas Brodin, a well-polished defenseman from Sweden (as if they produce anything else).

The rankings:

THN: 22
RLE: 25
CSS: 3 (Euro)
ISS: 20
Craig Button: 10
Bob: 12 (mid-season)

We see a very wide spread of positions for Brodin, but none that see him fall from the first round. He projects to being NHL-sized by the time he fills out in a couple of years, currently listed at 6'1 165. He's not going to bowl anyone over with sheer physical will but that's not his game. What he lacks in size he more than makes up for in other aspects of his game, according to frequent Oilogosphers poster SpOILer, who recently posted his top-30 over at Lowetide. SpOILer had made the brave mind to place Brodin 5th on his list, saying:

Brings the most elite hockey sense out of any of the top 6. I think it is dangerous to under-rate this ability. Off-the-charts anticipation. Is a plus plus skater. Very good passer. Has only average size and strength. It's tough to tell how much offense he will generate, but he had 4 assists without much PP time and that's a good number for the SEL. With his brains and passing ability he should be at least a solid point producer. His sense and skating make him about as much a can't-miss pick outside of the top 3 as can be had. The ability to make high quality reads playing against men at his age sets him apart. Most defensemen take years to learn what he already sees instinctively

SpOILer's not the only one raving about Brodin's vision and playmaking ability. Kirk Luedeke is fast becoming the most important voice in prospect talk that isn't working for MSM. Back in November, Kirk did a piece on Brodin and has this to say:

One more in a long line of highly skilled and mobile puck-moving rearguards from Sweden, the tall (6-1) but very lanky Brodin is an outstanding skater whose strength is his east-west lateral movement and ability to crossover in the face of forwards who attack with speed. He's got excellent vision and defensive instincts, able to diagram unfolding plays and put himself in position to interdict and neutralize the opposition attack. Brodin also has the ability to start the transition game to offense with his soft hands and crisp outlet passing. Although only about 165-170 pounds, Brodin has also shown a surprising ability to play a physical game.

Brodin appears to have speed and playmaking ability in spades, which is something the Oilers pipeline lacks as of now. Marincin and Petry both possess offensive ability from the blueline, but not of the calibre Brodin is expected to bring. Reports also suggest he's not shrinking violet either, and despite his apparent lack of bulk has been toiling against men for the past two seasons in Sweden's top two divisions.

Consistency also appears to be a hallmark of Brodin's game, which is something I hold in high regard when we're talking about 17- and 18-year olds. He's seen as the safe pick in the 20's by a couple of sources; not quite as pretty a package as teammate Oscar Klefbom but he'll get the job done. Likely won't be ready for a couple of years, but he's in a good situation in Sweden to develop his game against men.

I can see the Oilers taking Best Defenseman Available if they don't take Larsson #1, as has been their bent lately when they have multiple picks in the first round. Brodin certainly qualifies as worthy. The Oilers will certainly have him heavily scouted as they've been going to Sweden for their European selections with much more regularity since SMB took over.

2011 Draft POI: Tyler Biggs

2011-06-06T10:57:00.003-05:00

I started doing a couple of these earlier in the year, where I'd introduce you to a kid I thought deserving of a mid-round pick. Jesse Forsberg is here and Shane Prince is here. I've been carelessly lazy for the last....ever, so these entries sort of fell by the wayside.

Blame my girlfriend, not me.

Anycase, I figured that since Lowetide has been covering the top end of the draft board with his usual excellence, that I'd leave that schtick to him and focus on players of interest that could be falling to the Oilers with the 19th overall pick. First up is a massive specimen who caught my eye reading his profile in THN's recent 2011 Draft Preview.

Meet Tyler Biggs.

Rankings:

THN: 20
ISS: NR (Top-30)
CSS: 22 CDN
Bob: 10 MID

Born April 30, '93 in Ohio, he's a 6'2" 210lb RW who plays for the US National Team Development Program (NTDP). He finished the year scoring 17-11-28 in 48 games. While he isn't the most gifted offensive force that will be available at 19, he comes with other qualities that may get him noticed. Said THN:

"His Dad (Don Biggs) was a pain in the ass and he will be, too. He is legitimate tough."

I'm thinking somewhere along the Zack Kassian side of hockey will be the expectation of Biggs. He's going to be the guy to go into the corners and use his size to lean on even the bigger NHL defenders. He's got other qualities that will suit him at higher levels of hockey, says RLR scout Max Giese:

"He's a fast, mean, physical in-your-face guy with some leadership qualities."

CSS's Jack Barzee thinks his intangibles might be holding back his offensive abilities:

"Biggs is another young player who has taken on the job as leader of his team, and does most of their fighting when they have to fight, if not all of it. I think the responsibility for standing up for teammates has taken a little away from his offensive finish … wearing that ‘C’ and doing those things. My gut feeling is that he’s on an uphill path”.

Video of Biggs' game are available here. From an admittedly limited sampling, we see that Biggs likes to get involved for puck battles along the boards, can effectively skate down loose pucks and looks capable in a two-way role. His shot also looks to be a weapon, with a quick release and is accurate. Apparently has some PK ability already at a young age also, which is a bonus for a player who looks like a 3-4 line guy.

He's committed to his hometown Miami University for the Fall, though his CHL rights are owned by the Oshawa Generals.

I think he'd be a good fit for the Oilers organization because he resembles a lot of the qualities that have already been listed by General Manager Steve Tambellini and Head Scout Stu MacGregor as areas that need to be shored up. We've got a enough young offense in the likes of Hall Eberle Omark Paajarvi (Nugent-Hopkins?) that we can now concentrate our energy on finding players to compliment their skill. A big body who can skate with a willingness to protect the meal-tickets? Sounds like a winner to me.

A quick musing on what the draft lottery means to me

2011-04-12T20:26:00.000-05:00

I want this guy in Oiler colours.

I’ve never been one to shy away with giving out my opinion, especially if I’m leaning strongly one way on a topic. Last year I soap-boxed for Taylor Hall all the damn year and was rewarded. In 2007 I nearly hit my ceiling when we selected Alex Plante (jury’s still out on that one).

And now we come to the 2011 entry draft, where once again I’ve got my eye on a particular player. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins first won me over reading up on him from the 2010 THN edition of Draft Watch. His unique combination of skill and speed was more than enough for me to overcome his slight stature. I made a note to follow his 2010/11 season with a close eye, perhaps more so than any other draft eligible prospect. Though I am not in a position to watch him play live (A WHL team in Winnipeg is higher on my list of necessary things in the ‘Peg than an NHL franchise), I followed his stats lines closely. Initial concern about his lack of goal production was buffered by the notion of Hall riding shotgun.

Then came the Top Prospects game in which he put on a hell of a show for me. I finally was able to take personal opinion from his game style and compare it to paper reports. His creativity, vision and overall hockey sense were what stuck with me the most from that viewing and carried over to the next time I saw him play, in his opening round series with the Edmonton Oil Kings. Much like Sidney Crosby did to the Oilers in his first appearance in Edmonton, RNH patiently went about his game until he struck. Then again. Then again. Before the Oil Kings knew what had happened the game was a lost cause and RNH was front and center in the charge.

There are some other nice talents in the draft this year. Adam Larsson will make another GM very happy when he’s playing 25 minutes a night. Gabriel Landeskog might be the next Mike Richards-type player. Sean Couturier’s light may have just dimmed this year and could make us all look like fools. But in the end I know what I like watching in Oilers hockey and that’s speed and creativity, pure and simple.

And that’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ game.

Prospect Statistics: February

2011-03-05T22:49:00.000-06:00

One young man made huge strides during February while most kept up their status quo. We’re getting into the stretch run for our prospects, many of whom are fighting it out with their respective teams for playoff positioning. It’s at this time when I’m looking for the cream to rise.

Cameron Abney RW Edmonton/WHL

FEB 14GP 2-5-7 -5 7PIM 10ZPG
YTD 52GP 6-11-17 -5 79PIM

Abney had an offensive burst this month, but it should be accurately pointed out that really he just had an offensive outburst for two games (3 assists in one, 1-1-2 the other). If he gets a contract from the Oilers I’m going to be more to be more than a little irate.

Phil Cornet RW Oklahoma/AHL

FEB 6GP 1-0-1 E 0PIM 13SH 5 ZPG
YTD 42GP 5-8-13 +4 4PIM 65SH

After an outstanding January, we see Cornet regress back to his previous levels. Had zero points in five games to start the month, and was subsequently benched for OKC’s next five games. He’s going to get lapped by the influx of talent next year.

Drew Czerwonka LW Kootenay/WHL

FEB 12GP 0-6-6 +2 22PIM 8ZPG
YTD 58GP 12-27-39 +11 94PIM

A dip offensively, but Czerwonka still appears to be providing a good all-around game. He’s seen his powerplay numbers take a large cut, but when your team trades for Cody Eakin that’s bound to happen. I hope he finishes the year strong, because I’m rooting for him.

Robby Dee C Maine/NCAA

FEB 8GP 0-6-6 +3 4PIM 19SH 3ZPG
YTD 34GP 9-21-30 +6 24PIM 82SH

Dee continues along in his senior year for Maine, hoping to impress the Oilers brass enough to earn a contract after finishing college hockey. He’s in much the same boat as fellow collegiate athlete Chris VandeVelde was last year. He’s putting up the numbers and has other skills (faceoffs), but will ST have a case of once bit, twice shy with this player type from the previous administration?

Jordan Eberle RW Edmonton/NHL

FEB 13GP 5-6-11 E 10PIM 34SH 187.03EV 32.53PP 0.13SH 5ZPG
YTD 50GP 14-20-34 -4 14PIM 110SH 726.16EV 122.56PP 45.26SH

Young Eberle returned from injury after the Oilers first game in February and immediately began to put up numbers again. His points are coming almost exclusively at even strength (1 PP assist in Feb), but remains a high-event player at even strength as only 3 games are even par this month. He’s learning at an accelerated pace in the best league on the planet, we’ve got something special here.

Taylor Hall LW Edmonton/NHL

FEB 14GP 5-4-9 0 4PIM 44SH 212.27EV 42.54PP 0.10SH 7ZPG
YTD 63GP 21-19-40 -10 18PIM 183SH 880.18EV 173.25PP 1.42SH

Hall is a remarkable talent, but he put up his points in slightly unconventional fashion this month and for that we should be cautious. 80% of his goals this month came courtesy the PP and a game such as that Feb19th contest is such an aberration that I don’t know what to do with it. He’s sorting out his defensive lapses but like Eberle remains rather high event. We should still be treating him with kid gloves but at the low end of the potential spectrum he’ll be a top-6 NHL forward for the next two decades.

Curtis Hamilton LW Saskatoon/WHL

FEB 13GP 5-15-20 +11 10PIM 1ZPG
YTD 53GP 21-52-73 +43 20PIM

I love this pick. He was a gamble in the last draft (huge injury concerns) but he’s paid off better than any of the other 2nd rounders we took. He’s got offensive upside, knows his way around his own zone and can be the guy the Oilers can count on next year to be a PK demon. It’s rare for any but the impact prospects to make the jump straight from major-junior to the NHL, but I think Hamilton is capable of doing just that next year because of his secondary skills. Oh, and he lit up the league this month. No big deal, just an ordinary month for him, right?

Teemu Hartikainen RW Oklahoma/AHL

FEB 10GP 2-2-4 -2 0PIM 21SH 7ZPG
YTD 59GP 16-20-36 -3 29PIM 111SH

Just when we thought Hartikainen had taken the next step towards his NHL career, well it seems we may have been a bit premature in that projection. He’s still got talent, but he wasn’t exactly pushing for a recall in February. Maybe January’s AHL rookie of the month’s been figured out by the AHL competition and they’re keying on him as a player of interest when pre-game scouting is discussed, or maybe he just didn’t have it in February. I’m hoping it’s the former.

Kellen Jones F Quinnipiac/NCAA

FEB 7GP 2-3-5 -2 2PIM 19SH 2ZPG
YTD 36GP 7-18-25 E 31PIM 80SH

Jones and the Bobcats are an interesting case. I’d be more willing to dock Jones points for February’s performance (mostly PP points) if his team could be bothered to win a single game in said month. As Jones goes, so do the Bobcats. It’ll be a very interesting March as the Bobcats limp towards the playoffs.

Milan Kytnar C Oklahoma/AHL

FEB 9GP 1-0-1 -2 6PIM 10SH 8ZPG
YTD 57GP 7-10-17 E 20PIM 54SH

Kytnar’s fate was much the same as Hartikainen’s this month. He reached high places in January but came crashing back to Earth in February. He’s not required for offense in OKC but it’d still be appreciated once in a while.

Anton Lander C Timra/SEL

FEB 7GP 1-1-2 -7 2PIM 24SH 126.36TOI 5ZPG
YTD 45GP 9-14-23 -12 30PIM 98SH 818.46TOI

Ouch. That’s a horrible minus column for a kid who was billed as a defensive specialist. We should be concerned about Lander’s continued development in Sweden. He has to be signed sometime this offseason, but there’s an opportunity to get him over to the AHL this year if he signs quickly enough.

Ryan Martindale C Ottawa/OHL

FEB 12GP 5-9-14 +6 4PIM 3ZPG
YTD 58GP 32-46-78 +37 22PIM

Just a decent month for the big center from Ontario. He’s losing pace with his linemates in the OHL’s scoring race as both Tyler Toffoli (a 50-goal man) and Shane Prince (draft eligible this year) are pulling away. Is he riding coat-tails?

Linus Omark F Edmonton/NHL

FEB 12GP 0-7-7 -4 2PIM 16SH 141.10EV 34.12PP 0.00SH 6ZPG
YTD 32GP 3-13-16 -11 14PIM 52SH 385.27EV 83.24PP 0.00SH

Omark did well from a point production standpoint in February playing with fellow Swede Magnus Paajarvi. Like Eberle he’s doing his damage at even strength which is a welcome sign. As the Oilers are no longer in a position to succeed I’d like to see Omark given more responsibility to see if he’s a piece to build with or another passenger.

Magnus Paajarvi LW Edmonton/NHL

FEB 14GP 4-1-5 -3 0PIM 26SH 169.45EV 20.56PP 0.07SH 10ZPG
YTD 61GP 10-14-24 -3 12PIM 121SH 797.56EV 86.21PP 1.48SH

Another kid at the NHL level putting up even strength points. It’s a broken record at this point but it really bodes well for the future of this team. In Paajarvi’s case we won’t know his true potential until he gets an extended shift in a top-6 role (one upside of the Penner trade). Is he more than a 30 point-per-year all-around man?

Tyler Pitlick RW Medicine Hat/WHL

FEB 11GP 7-5-12 +1 2PIM 5ZPG
YTD 55GP 27-35-62 +4 29PIM

The lustre of Pitlick is starting to wear off on me. Case in point, he hat-tricked in the Tigers’ Feb26 game (one PP goal), a game in which the final score was 7-3 Tigers, Pitlick ends the game -1. He screams defensive liability to me and couldn’t even make this team as a center, the position he was theoretically drafted as. His point totals are heavily influenced by PP time (2-3-5 in Feb) and is still struggling with his +/- despite playing on one of the Dub’s best teams. I expected more.

Kristians Pelss RW Edmonton/WHL

FEB 14GP 7-4-11 +7 8PIM 8ZPG
YTD 57GP 14-16-30 +15 27PIM

Uh, what? When did this 7th rounder come to realize he’s got some hockey skills? An absolutely perfect month for the Latvian saw him move up to play with real linemates and flourish. I’d be interested in seeing whether this kind of pace will be sustainable next year or not. He’s going to be a player of interest next year.

Toni Rajala RW Ilves/SM-Liiga

FEB 8GP 2-4-6 +5 0PIM 40SH 129.54TOI 4ZPG
YTD 38GP 9-13-22 +2 4PIM 183SH 575.26TOI

Decent. Nothing more nothing less on offense, but his +5 is a good sign. He’ll be in OKC next year regardless of what he does this year, so let’s see if he can do more with his opportunity as another previously mentioned 5th rounder (ahem, Cornet).

Chris VandeVelde C Oklahoma/AHL

FEB 10GP 2-0-2 -3 6PIM 17SH 8ZPG
YTD 58GP 9-4-13 -17 38PIM 79SH

VandeVelde’s trying hard to stop his bleeding, but he’s clearly been outclassed this year. Perhaps he’s a late-bloomer at every level of hockey.

Jordan Bendfeld D Stockton/ECHL

FEB 13GP 1-1-2 -7 20PIM 21SH 11ZPG
YTD 21GP 1-1-2 -3 50PIM 29SH

Bendfeld’s a depth AHL defenseman getting outclassed in the ECHL. Too bad we have another year on his ELC to talk about.

Jeremie Blain D Acadie-Bathurst/QMJHL

FEB 12GP 2-10-12 -1 16PIM 17SH 3ZPG
YTD 34GP 3-29-32 +12 44PIM 27SH

All the talk among the Oilogosphere regarding our offensive D-prospects surrounds Martin Marincin, and I think that’s unfair to this outstanding prospect. Due to his injury trouble earlier in the season he’s been left out of most of our conversations, but he’s making the procurement department look great yet again.

Kyle Bigos D Merrimack/NCAA

FEB 8GP 0-1-1 E 47PIM 15SH 7ZPG
YTD 27GP 0-5-5 +1 112PIM 51SH

I don’t know about Bigos as an NHL prospect anymore, but then again every team needs a guy like him to police the other team. He’s either not afraid of the rough stuff or can’t keep up with the NCAA forwards.

Taylor Chorney D Edmonton/NHL

FEB AHL 3GP 0-0-0 -1 2PIM 5SH 3ZPG
YTD AHL 45GP 3-13-16 E 20PIM 69SH
FEB NHL 4GP 1-1-2 -1 2PIM 6SH 56.00EV 13.22PP 0.59SH 3ZPG
YTD NHL 10GP 1-3-4 -4 4PIM 11SH 136.45EV 22.14PP 5.22SH

Chorney was having a nice run at the NHL level until his injury. It looks like he’s really started to figure out that a defenseman should know how to play defence. He’s in the mix for a roster spot next year based on his NHL performance this year.

Brandon Davidson D Regina/WHL

FEB 13GP 1-12-13 -7 15PIM 3ZPG
YTD 63GP 8-41-49 -7 71PIM

I like Davidson. He doesn’t have draft pedigree, but knows how to play hockey. An awkwardly bad minus column keeps him from an A+ vote of confidence this month. If only he played on a real hockey team...

Martin Marincin D Prince George/WHL

FEB 14GP 1-7-8 -1 16PIM 7ZPG
YTD 59GP 13-39-52 -4 57PIM

I’d call this an improved month for the big Slovak rearguard, if only for the fact that he didn’t embarrass himself defensively again. The points are nice, but if he can’t play defence there’s no reason to get interested.

Johan Motin D Oklahoma/AHL

He’s injured. Apparently it’s upper-body.

Jeff Petry D Oklahoma/AHL

FEB AHL 6GP 0-3-3 +3 0PIM 11SH 4ZPG
YTD AHL 37GP 7-18-25 -5 16PIM 83SH
FEB NHL 7GP 0-0-0 -4 4PIM 3SH 111.16EV 11.43PP 12.15SH 7ZPG
YTD NHL 21GP 1-2-3 -4 6PIM 25SH 351.10EV 53.02PP 29.29SH

To say Petry had a bad February is the understatement of the year. Perhaps it was over-hype that led to our worrying about his play, but any way you shape it he had to be better than he was this month. I hope they keep him down in the AHL for the rest of the year so he can get his confidence back. He should be ready to go next year.

Alex Plante D Oklahoma/AHL

FEB 10GP 0-1-1 E 14PIM 12SH 9ZPG
YTD 56GP 1-10-11 +7 108PIM 54SH

Plante’s offence appears to have dried up at the AHL level, but it’s his +/- that leads me to believe he’ll have an NHL career. He’s been an effective blueliner this year.

Tyler Bunz G Medicine Hat/WHL

FEB 13GP .929SV% 2.40GAA 1SO
YTD 49GP .918SV% 2.53GAA 3SO

Bunz continues to stake his claim as the pipeline’s top goalie prospect with a workhorse month. He played in all but one game this month for the Tigers, including one relief appearance and was in most cases the team’s best player. I don’t think goalie development makes a lick of sense, but he seems the best of the bunch.

Bryan Pitton G Oklahoma/AHL

FEB 1GP 0.935SV% 1.85GAA
YTD 4GP 0.920SV% 2.46GAA

He played when Gerber was on recall to the Oilers. Numbers look good but aren’t apparently good enough to oust Jeff Deslauriers from his backup spot.

Olivier Roy G Acadie-Bathurst/QMJHL

FEB 10GP .922SV% 2.39GAA 1SO
YTD 40GP .907SV% 2.87GAA 2SO

Roy had a bounce-back month after regressing for what seemed like the entire season. A couple of ugly games, but like Bunz there were many where he had to bail his team out in order to win. He’s still alive, but I’m not 100% convinced he has NHL potential.

---------------------------
To note: I’ll be adding Colten Teubert to next month’s prospect statistics.

Trukhno sighting

2011-03-02T17:39:00.004-06:00

In finding where Jordan Bendfeld's been playing the past month, I ran into an old Oilogosphere friend.

Slava Trukhno has been found. He's playing in the ECHL this year for the Bakersfield Condors. I'm quite shocked he didn't bugger off back to Russia the first chance he got after playing out his entry-level deal with the Oilers.

He appears to be doing quite well for himself in the ECHL, scoring at over a point-per-game pace with the Condors (36GP 9-31-40) and has even managed a brief re-call to the Peoria Rivermen, farm team of the St. Louis Blues (3GP 1-1-2).

It's a far cry from where many of us originally thought him to be at this stage in his professional career, but at least he's still doing what he enjoys.

As an additional note, March's prospect stats are compiled, I'll hopefully have them up soon.

WHL hockey night: Blades vs Tigers

2011-02-16T19:57:00.010-06:00

I've got nothing to do tonight, so I've decided to sit back and watch some Dub hockey. Tonight's game is important for Oilers fans as it pits two of our top prospects against each other in Saskatoon's Curtis Hamilton and Medicine Hat's Tyler Bunz.

I'm going to try a bit of live-blogging, with updates at the end of each period. We'll see what comes of it.

First Period:

17:40 Hamilton good entry, two smart passes for two SC.

16:00 Bunz holds post, strong pass around boards.

15:30 Hamilton block in defensive zone leads to two-on-one SC

11:35 Bunz is a god. Great positioning allows him to make approximately 4 saves in 2.3 seconds

6:55 Hamilton late on the backcheck, leads to GA

5:35 Bunz quick reaction save on a smart Saskatoon tip. Reflexes appear to be a strength

4:20 Bunz with smart clear of the puck to center ice

Second Period:

18:20 Game’s first penalty goes to the Tigers. Time to see what Bunz’s got.

18:10 Bunz flashing the glove hand

17:25 Bunz’s angles are solid on the PK here, directs the rebound calmly into the corner

11:00 Bunz barely avoids an own-goal. Stupid play by the Tigers defender

10:30 Curtis Hamilton drives wide. Shot blocked, Hamilton blown up by Hat defender. Hamilton calmly gets back up and continues offensive pressure for another 30 seconds.

9:25 Bunz beaten by a hell of a wrister blocker-high. Hard to fault Bunz on that one.

7:36 The Blades’ ball begins to roll and you can just tell the pace of the game has turned. Bunz beaten again and like before it’s no fault of his. Down and out on a second rebound opportunity. Someone’s gotta clear that puck.

7:13 Okay, Bunz should have had that one. Hamilton scores on what can be described as an average shot. Announcers are saying it was tipped but it didn’t look like it to me. Hamilton’s 19th of the campaign

5:05 Bunz, trying to stop the bleeding by himself, stands tall on yet another Blades PP.

Intermission interview with Curtis Hamilton. I missed the first part so there may have been a bit on the Oilers that I didn’t catch. From what I did:
- Chemistry developing with Schenn
- This year’s club similar to last year if a little younger, hard-working successful team
- WJC awesome experience

Third Period:

17:55 Hamilton out as one of Saskatoon’s primary PKers. Breaks up a pass and charges down the ice to create a great chance on a two-on-one

17:40 Only to be the last man back into the play for a MH powerplay goal. One step forward, two back.

16:25 Bunz with another 5-bell save, this time off Marek Viedensky wide open in the slot. He’s a crafty player, too bad he’s a Sharks draft pick

13:17 If Hamilton gets an assist on the fourth Blades goal, then I’ll start to question his ability to produce offense at the professional level.

13:10 He did.

11:30 Hamilton with another nice stick on the PK to create an odd-man rush with Schenn. He’s very dangerous with his ability to create turnovers at the point

2:35 Tigers score to put the game at 4-3 while on a two-man advantage. Interesting that draft-eligible Duncan Siemens is one of the Blades PKers in that situation.

1:15 2010 first rounder Emerson Etem gets the tying goal. Tyler Bunz should get the secondary assist with a great clearing pass to Linden Vey. Shorthanded to boot.

0:05 Bunz with the money save to maintain at least a single point. Got some help from his defenseman, who was able to sky the loose puck before it fell into the net.

Overtime:

1:04 Terrible way for Bunz to lose this game. Complete clusterfuck between goalie and defenseman leads to the Hamilton/Schenn tandem pouncing. Hamilton with the initial chance, Schenn with the slam-dunk.

---------------

I really wish I had the chance to see more junior hockey. That was a more entertaining game than half of the ones I've watched the Oilers slog through this year. Thinking on the Oilers prospects in this game, I found Curtis Hamilton to be around the puck all night long. A goal and two assists for the 2010 second rounder who has all the makings of a future NHLer. Tyler Bunz had an up and down kind of game. He was completely unflappable for the first half of the game, only to let in three goals in rather quick succession before getting back on his horse. I like his puck skills and his ability to be square to the shooter, but he'll need to see a lot more rubber before he's a finished product.

The announcers commented before the game started that Tyler Pitlick will be missing his third straight game, possibly due to injury. If the Tigers play this well without him in the line-up, they're surely to go far in the playoffs with a healthy #7 on the bench.

Prospect Statistics: January

2011-02-02T20:26:00.005-06:00

This month sees the majority of our prospects keeping with the status quo, which means we might have finally reached an established level of productivity to measure our final months against. The prospects who have a shot at the next level should begin to elevate their game for the stretch run to the playoffs, while the also-rans will begin to taper out.

Cameron Abney RW Edmonton/WHL

JAN 12GP 1-5-6 +3 46PIM 8ZPG
YTD 38GP 4-6-10 E 72PIM

Abney saw a resurgence in his game during the early part of January, both in terms of offensive production and overall nastiness. Edmonton was an improved team over this stretch and the offensive production was well spread out. However he ended the month not playing in Edmonton’s last game of January for reasons currently not known to me. He was 0-fer in his previous three games, so either he’s trying to shake a nagging injury or the coach found a better option again.

Phil Cornet RW Oklahoma/AHL

JAN 13GP 4-4-8 +7 0PIM 28SH 8ZPG
YTD 36GP 4-8-12 +4 4PIM 52SH

This month’s breakout player caught lightning in a bottle when placed on a line with fellow prospects Milan Kytnar and Teemu Hartikainen. Cornet stepped it up in the absence of Liam Reddox and Linus Omark in a big way. I’ve been harping on the first year pro to force the coaches hands more often and with a month like this you know he’s going to get added responsibility heading towards the playoffs.

Drew Czerwonka LW Kootenay/WHL

JAN 12GP 2-8-10 +3 33PIM 5 ZPG
YTD 46GP 12-21-33 +9 72PIM

Another solid month for a guy thought of as an afterthought on draft day. I didn’t think this pace was sustainable but the kid’s got it going on. He’s doing most of his damage at even strength (1-7-8) which is a good sign that the offense is translatable to a higher level, but the fact he’s playing on a dominant team might play against him. We wait for him to come back down to Earth, but he’s enjoying the view.

Robby Dee C Maine/NCAA

JAN 7GP 1-4-5 -3 10PIM 16SH 2 ZPG
YTD 26GP 9-15-24 +3 20PIM 63SH

The senior Dee continues along at his established pace. He’s not killing it, but neither is he losing his focus. I haven’t been able to consistently find his faceoff numbers from game-to-game, but expect they’re still hovering around his established 60%. He’s one of the main offensive producers on his team, alongside the Hobey Baker candidate (and Detroit pick) Gustav Nyquist, but needs to pick up the pace to earn a contract. He’s no spring chicken.

Jordan Eberle RW Edmonton/NHL

JAN 1GP 0-0-0 E 4:51EV
YTD 37GP 9-14-23 -4 4PIM 76SH 673:39TOI 539.34EV 89.63PP 45:13SH

Eberle was injured for basically the entire month of January. It’s going to affect his development, the only question is going to be; how badly? We wait.

Taylor Hall LW Edmonton/NHL

JAN 13GP 4-5-9 -3 6PIM 39SH 249:14TOI 207:20EV 41:54PP 7ZPg
YTD 49GP 16-15-31 -10 14PIM 139SH 899:54TOI 667:51EV 130:31PP 1:32SH

Taylor Hall’s progression has reached the level where he’s one of the Oilers’ main offensive catalysts. He’s firmly established his presence in the Top-6 but isn’t exactly handling the league’s best yet. He’s got room to grow but has ages to do it in. A wonderful player.

Curtis Hamilton LW Saskatoon/WHL

JAN 9GP 1-10-11 +5 4PIM
YTD 40GP 16-37-53 +32 10PIM

Hamilton spent the first portion of the month playing for Canada and as he’s proven in Saskatoon he is a versatile player. Beginning as a PK specialist and 4th liner, Hamilton ended up entrenched within the Top-6 and was contributing offensively. Upon his return to Saskatoon he was able to pick up where he left off, but his performance is troubling to me. Going back his last 16 games, he has only a single goal for his efforts (16 assists). Is this a sign that he’s becoming less comfortable shooting, or that he’s become a playmaker instead of a scorer? Regardless of that, expect the Blades to be the team to beat in the WHL this year, as the acquisition of Brayden Schenn adds another bullet to the chamber. Let’s hope his reputation as a high-end WHL playmaker allows Hamilton more opportunities to score.

Teemu Hartikainen RW Oklahoma/AHL

JAN 15GP 4-10-14 +8 4PIM 30SH 6ZPG
YTD 49GP 14-18-32 -1 29PIM 90SH

Hartikainen’s getting a lot of love around the Oilogosphere of late and while it’s nice to see him finally crack AHL pitching, I’d like to temper some of those feelings a touch. He’s still not the consistent offensive presence the basic boxcars would suggest. Of his 14 January points, 9 came in 4 games (three 2-point games, one 3-point effort), while impressive, I’d prefer to see a little more regularity. Maybe it’s just me nit-picking on one aspect of his game, but I’d like to see another month like this. A positive note is his improved defensive play. After going -11 over the first two months, he’s countered that nicely with +10 over DEC/JAN. A very strong arrow in the right direction for the big Finn.

Kellen Jones W Quinnipiac/NCAA

JAN 8GP 1-6-7 +6 2PIM 17SH 3 ZPG
YTD 29GP 5-15-20 +2 29PIM 61SH

Jones picked up the pace in January and so did his team. He’s one of his team’s top scorers and is out-scoring his brother at this stage. I’d like to see more shots on net, but with so little to go on in terms of knowledge of NCAA hockey, I’d say he’s progressing.

Milan Kytnar C Oklahoma/AHL

JAN 4-4-8 +9 6PIM 17SH 8ZPG
YTD 48GP 6-10-16 +2 14PIM 44SH

If this is what happens when you give Kytnar average linemates, you have to wonder what he’d do with Alex Giroux. Another player to have immediate results upon the call-ups of Reddox and Omark, Kytnar has showm himself capable of increased responsibility at the AHL level. The depth of the OKC roster is strong though, so when the eventual assignments from Edmonton come, Kytnar will be back with the dregs. This might be the high-point of Kytnar’s debut pro season.

Anton Lander C Timra/SEL

JAN 9GP 1-6-7 -4 6PIM 20SH 169:57TOI 2 ZPG
YTD 38GP 8-13-21 -5 28PIM 74SH 692.10 TOI

Lander returned to the Timra line-up from a disappointing tournament for Sweden (not particularly Lander, but the Swedes as a whole) at the world juniors, and two things happened. For one, he appears to be cheating towards offense and his two-way game is suffering, and two he’s getting increased ice-time including powerplay time (1-3-4 in January). He’s trending well offensively (he’s currently riding a 5 game point streak) and is being used in different roles on the team (he’s being listed as 3rd C, 3rd RW and 1st LW in January). In short, he’s become a versatile player and is working on adding an offensive touch. He’ll be ready to step over to North America next year and won’t be long in the minor-pro levels, if at all.

Ryan Martindale C Ottawa/OHL

JAN 12GP 7-8-15 +4 0PIM 3 ZPG
YTD 45GP 27-36-63 +27 18PIM

Martindale’s still putting up big numbers, but he’s far from the only one on the 67s to be doing that. Along with line-mates Shane Prince and Tyler Toffoli, the 67s have recently had more players step it up offensively. The names Lindsay, Ceci, Nesbitt and Mohanen are gracing the stats sheets as often as Martindale’s is. While it’s nice to have some friendly competition among teammates, Martindale’s history of, well, lazy play might become a factor. If others are producing, does Ryan still have to put forth 100% effort for the team to continue to win? Maybe we’ll find out in February.

Linus Omark W Edmonton/NHL

JAN AHL 2GP 1-4-5 +1 4PIM 5 SH 0 ZPG
YTD AHL 28GP 14-15-29 +7 32PIM 72SH

JAN NHL 12GP 2-2-4 -6 8PIM 29SH 192:07TOI 159:03EV 32:04PP
YTD NHL 20GP 3-6-9 -7 12PIM 36SH 294.29TOI 244.17EV 49.12PP

Omark continues to piss me off by getting sent down and re-called, so I am required to count and present statistics for two leagues, the bastard. Unfortunately, Omark did not has as successful a January as he did a December, possibly stemming from unfamiliarity with his linemates (he was with his AHL buddies for most of December). I would have hoped he could have stepped up in Eberle’s (and Hemsky’s) absences but it wasn’t to be. He’s doing a lot of things right, but most nights you can tell he’s a rookie.

Magnus Paajarvi LW Edmonton/NHL

JAN 12GP 2-3-5 -1 2PIM 28SH 195.04TOI 170.18EV 24.39PP 0.07SH
YTD 47GP 9-13-19 E 12PIM 95SH 695.20TOI 628.11EV 65.25PP 1.41SH

Young Magnus continues to move at a very similar pace. He’s not improving by my eye, nor is he drowning. His minutes have improved in the absence of Eberle, but who knows what’s going to happen when Jordan draws back into the line-up. I hate to say it but the scouting reports saying he’s not much of a scorer are starting to ring true. He continues to impress with his defensive prowess though, which is something you don’t often see in a teenager.

Tyler Pitlick RW Medicine Hat/WHL

JAN 11GP 5-9-14 +1 4PIM 3ZPG
YTD 44GP 20-30-50 +3 27PIM

Pitlick is beginning to put up some impressive offensive numbers, but the manner he’s scoring them is concerning to me. Half his points this month (1-6-7) came via the powerplay, an area I don’t see him getting much opportunity at higher levels. He’s also still not developing any impressive two-way ability, as evidenced by his mediocre +/-. I had expected more from a collegiate athlete in this regard this year, as he’d been playing against men rather effectively last year. He might be a bit more of a long-term prospect than we first believed. Didn’t dress in MH’s last two games of the month, possible injury.

Kristians Pelss RW Edmonton/WHL

JAN 13GP 3-3-6 E 2PIM 8ZPG
YTD 43GP 7-12-19 +8 19PIM

Bet nobody saw this coming from the Latvian when he was drafted, myself included. I believe the line I used over at Lowetide was “Even if he’s the Latvian Wayne Gretzky, why bother?” Well I’ll admit my mistake and submit that this was a very good use of a 7th round pick. Pelss seems to have caught on to the WHL game and has started to flash some offensive chops. He’s become an everyday player and even getting some powerplay time.

Toni Rajala RW Ilves/SM-Liiga

JAN 8GP 1-3-4 +2 0PIM 38SH 109.29 TOI 4ZPG
YTD 30GP 7-9-16 -3 4PIM 143SH

Despite a rather pedestrian World Juniors, Toni Rajala may be turning a corner in Finland. He’s becoming a more consistent offensive performer and appears to be improving his two-way game. Now if only he could be earning more ice-time, we’d be laughing. Fun fact, Jesse Niinimaki is playing almost twice as much per game as Rajala, something’s not right there. Rajala’s challenge now is to take some of those minutes from a failed prospect. I suggest borrowing one of those nice rifles he’s been busy shining and drilling with during his “down time”.

Chris VandeVelde C Oklahoma/AHL

JAN 15GP 2-0-2 -7 8PIM 23SH 13ZPG
YTD 48GP 7-4-11 -14 32PIM 62SH

Ouch. VandeVelde is failing in his prescribed role (shutdown C) in the AHL, and he’s failing spectacularly. One wonders if some time in the ECHL is approaching?

Jordan Bendfeld D Oklahoma AHL

JAN 7GP 0-0-0 -3 12PIM 2SH 7ZPG
YTD 13GP 0-0-0 +1 28PIM 7SH

Bendfeld is still alive and kicking, long after I had written him off for dead. It’s nice to see, but he’s not really bringing anything to the table other than a warm body. Then again, it could be worse. And it does appear to be worse, at least for one prospect, because he’s playing and they’re not.

Jeremie Blain D Acadie-Bathurst/QMJHL

JAN 12 GP 0-11-11 +8 16PIM 5Hits 20SH 5ZPG
YTD 22GP 1-19-20 +13 28PIM 10Hits 31SH

The Titan are a completely different team with Blain in the line-up. On most nights if they’re scoring at even-strength it’s usually involving Blain in some form or another, putting up 9 of his 11 assists 5-on-5. I think it’s safe to say now that his injury problem has passed and we’re free to enjoy night after night of offensive prowess from Blain.

Kyle Bigos D Merrimack/NCAA

JAN 4GP 0-0-0 -1 23PIM 6SH 4ZPG
YTD 19GP 0-4-4 +1 65PIM 36SH

I think Bigos is injured, as nothing else explains his 4-game absence at the end of January. Granted he’s not doing well of late, but I’d expect Merrimack would rather have their policeman in the line-up than eating popcorn if they had their druthers.

Taylor Chorney D Oklahoma/AHL

JAN AHL 8GP 1-3-4 -4 2PIM 13SH 4ZPG
YTD AHL 42GP 3-13-16 +1 18PIM 64SH

JAN NHL 6GP 0-2-2 -3 2PIM 5SH 4ZPG

A January that saw Chorney recalled to the big club was a nice reward for a prospect who was in dire straits last year. It should be viewed as a testament to just how far he’s come since last year, when he couldn’t even play defence at the AHL level. He may have not had as productive a cup of coffee as the other young blueliner, but it’s a step forward. He’s still scoring basically all his points on the powerplay, but I didn’t expect him to be an outscorer.

Brandon Davidson D Regina/WHL

JAN 13GP 2-4-6 +4 24PIM
YTD 50GP 7-29-35 E 56PIM

I’m a fan of Brandon Davidson and am cheering like hell for him. The nice thing about Davidson is he’s backing my fandom up with solid play. He’s putting up a nice point total and he’s turning his +/- around. He’s also playing on a bad team (has there even been a “good” Regina team?”, so his stats are all that more impressive to me.

Troy Hesketh

He’s in very big trouble as a hockey player. For one, there are reports he refused to report to his new club after being traded from Chicago of the USHL. Those reports have been denied, but speaks to the character of someone described as very “prima donna”, and “selfish”. Secondly, he’s suffered a concussion which has prevented him from playing since early December. Lastly, he’s lost his scholarship to the University of Wisconsin, due to academic ineligibility. Things are not looking well for the Minnetonka native at all. I’ll have more on the situation as it presents itself, but I think Guy Flaming will scoop me at his wonderful blog.

Martin Marincin D Prince George/WHL

JAN 12GP 2-7-9 -9 4PIM 5ZPG
YTD 45GP 12-32-44 -3 41PIM

Should we start worrying about Marincin? He’s getting killed defensively, but still putting up points. Personally, I place a little more emphasis on the defensive side of hockey for blueliners, so I am concerned that Marincin’s development is hitting a wall. If a defenseman can’t play defence, there’s not much positive to say about him.

Johan Motin D Oklahoma/AHL

JAN 5GP 0-0-0 +1 2PIM 3SH 5ZPG
YTD 34GP 1-3-4 -8 25PIM 29SH

Oklahoma played 15 games this past month. If you only draw into the line-up once every three games you know you’re in trouble as a prospect. To add insult to injury, Motin lost his spot to the aforementioned Jordan Bendfeld. Not good. He might be back in Sweden next year.

Jeff Petry D Edmonton/NHL

JAN 12GP 1-1-2 +2 2PIM 18SH 259.07TOI 206.01EV 37.17PP 15.49SH 10ZPG
YTD 14GP 1-2-3 E 2PIM 22SH 298.27TOI 239.54EV 41.19PP 17.14SH

Jeff Petry has arrived at the NHL level and I don’t think he’s ever going to look back. He’s playing big minutes, PP minutes, SH minutes, veteran minutes. Edmonton desperately needs a guy like Petry to be that all-around minute muncher, especially having lost Ryan Whitney possibly for the season. His point totals are low considering his history of being a point producer, but that’s really splitting hairs.

Alex Plante D Oklahoma/AHL

JAN 14GP 0-4-4 +3 28PIM 12SH 10ZPG
YTD 46GP 1-9-10 +7 94PIM 42SH

Plante had a solid month by anyone’s standards, but it’s even more impressive given the lack of Jeff Petry on the Barons’ blueline. He continues to show good defensive ability, and his combination of size and toughness should earn him a second cup of coffee in Edmonton in as many years.

Tyler Bunz G Medicine Hat/WHL

JAN 10GP 90.3 SV% 2.86GAA 7W 3L
YTD 36GP 91.2 SV% 2.58GAA

Bunz has replaced Olivier Roy as the Oilers top goaltender prospect in my eyes, but it’s more because of Roy’s shortcomings than Bunz doing anything special. Bunz has been okay throughout January, but nothing spectacular. He’s winning, which is good, but his stats were off his season averages. That may be the result of an extraordinary December though. Goalies are witchcraft.

Bryan Pitton G Oklahoma/AHL

JAN 1GP 96.8 SV% 1.01GAA 1W
YTD 3GP 91.5 SV% 2.68GAA

He played, but that was because Gerber needed a night off and Jeff Deslauriers was playing in Europe for Canada’s Spengler Cup entry. Nothing to write home about here.

Olivier Roy G Acadie-Bathurst/QMJHL

JAN 9GP 89.7 SV% 3.21GAA 7W 2L
YTD 30GP 90.2 SV% 3.03GAA

Olivier Roy’s getting a lot of underserved accolades from the Oilogosphere, but I’m not buying what they’re selling. I see a goalie being picked up by a strong offensive team, not having to single-handedly win a game for the team. His stats have been declining steadily as the season progresses, not to mention losing his role as starter for Team Canada. I really don’t think there’s much here.

Prospect Statistics: December

2011-01-19T21:26:00.004-06:00

This is Troy Hesketh. A month ago he was a hockey player. Now? Well, we don’t exactly know what he is, other than an American teenager. December has seen a number of our prospects deviate negatively from their normal production values. It has also seen a number of them participate for their respective countries in the biggest tournament for junior-aged talent.

*EDIT* I've added in the totals for Davidson and Marincin.

Cameron Abney RW Edmonton/WHL

DEC: 2 GP 0-0-0 +1 0PIM 2 ZPG
YTD: 26GP 3-1-4 -3 26PIM

I didn’t see anything to suggest that Abney was injured, so we’ve got to assume that he just isn’t a good enough player to be in the line-up for Edmonton anymore as a regular player. If his December performance continues to the New Year, I’d be shocked if he was awarded a contract at the end of this year by the Oilers

Phil Cornet W Oklahoma/AHL

DEC: 8GP 0-2-2 0 2PIM 12SH 6ZPG
YTD: 23GP 0-4-4 -3 4PIM 24SH

Cornet’s games came at a time when Linus Omark was playing with the Oilers. He’s clearly not among the 12 best AHL forwards on most given nights. He’s shooting more which is a nice sign but sooner or later he’s going to have to force the coach to play him more.

Drew Czerwonka LW Kootenay/WHL

DEC: 11GP 3-8-11 +7 13PIM 3 ZPG
YTD: 34GP 10-13-23 +6 39PIM

Another great month for the 2010 6th rounder. Kootenay is one of the best teams in the WHL this year and Czerwonka is providing complimentary offense to the more well-known scorers. What really impresses me is his dedication to the defensive side of hockey in December, only in two of his 11 games was he a minus player. He’s getting some powerplay time as well (1-2-3 in December), and it stands to reason that he’s got the trust of his coaching staff.

Robby Dee C Maine/NCAA

DEC: 6GP 3-4-7 +2 6PIM 11SH 1ZPG
YTD: 19GP 8-11-19 +6 10PIM 47SH

Robby Dee has become my darkhorse candidate for prospect of the year. He’s a lot older than most, but he’s performing in a very tough league. For some reason, my usual source material didn’t have his faceoff percentages for any December games. He’s contributing on the powerplay (2 goals) and at even strength while scoring at a very consistent pace. The only downside is his schedule, which has been extremely light the past two months, playing in only 11 games.

Jordan Eberle RW Edmonton/NHL

DEC: 13GP 5-3-8 0 0PIM 35SH 8ZPG
YTD: 36GP 9-14-23 -4 4PIM 76SH

Eberle rebounded from a goalless November to put up a very respectable 8 points this month. He’s still got that defensive awareness that also eluded him in November and has rekindled his chemistry with Taylor Hall. He’ll be a treat to watch all season long.

Taylor Hall LW Edmonton/NHL

DEC: 13GP 6-4-10 -2 2PIM 45SH 6ZPG
YTD: 12-10-22 -7 8PIM 100SH

A very productive month for Edmonton’s youngest Oiler. He’s found his stroke and is burying goals from everywhere. His shot totals lead all of the Oilers rookies by a wide margin, and is contributing both on the powerplay (2 goals) and at even strength.

Curtis Hamilton LW Saskatoon/WHL

DEC: 5GP 0-5-5 +1 0PIM
YTD: 31GP 15-27-42 +27 6PIM

Hamilton’s December with Saskatoon was “interrupted” with a trip to Buffalo with Team Canada’s U-20 entry in the WJC. He made the team as a 3/4line player but ended up contributing much more than that. He impressed me with his ability to fit various roles for Coach Cameron, from PK specialist to top-line winger. While it wasn’t his most productive month in the Dub, his contributions to Team Canada more than make up for that.

Teemu Hartikainen RW Oklahoma/AHL

DEC: 11GP 3-4-7 +2 8PIM 13SH 6ZPG
YTD: 34GP 10-8-18 -9 25PIM 60SH

Hartikainen was the player elevated to Top-6 minutes with the departure of Linus Omark to Edmonton and the big Finn was more than capable of picking up the slack. Not only did he contribute at even-strength (1 PP assist in DEC) but he showed that he’s capable of keeping the opposition off the score sheet as well. It looks like Oklahoma won’t be missing Omark all that much with Hartikainen around.

Kellen Jones W Quinnipiac/NCAA

DEC: 6GP 0-5-5 -3 2PIM 14SH 2 ZPG
YTD: 21GP 4-9-13 -4 27PIM 44SH

After a November to forget, Jones is back finding the score sheet, but the majority of his points (3 assists) are coming with the man advantage. He’s struggling to keep opposing teams from scoring and the team is losing games. The Jones twins are basically the Quinnipiac offense, so as Jones goes, so do the Bobcats.

Milan Kytnar C Oklahoma/AHL

DEC: 11GP 1-2-3 0 2PIM 10SH 8ZPG
YTD: 33GP 2-6-8 -7 8PIM 27SH

Kytnar’s still putting up modest point totals, but he’s found his shut-down game again, which is good news for the Barons. Seen as more of a defensive specialist, Kytnar will need to continue this positive trend in his +/- if he’s to move up the organizational depth chart.

Anton Lander C Timra/SEL

DEC: 5GP 1-1-2 -3 4PIM 14SH 87.57 TOI 3 ZPG
YTD: 29GP 7-7-14 -1 22PIM 54SH 522.13 TOI

Lander’s December began with a promotion to the second-line for Timra and he delivered to mixed results. He scored his two points in games where he was on the 2-line, but he also contributed his -3 rating during those games. He also captained Team Sweden at the WJC tournament in Buffalo, where he is the top-line center and skating with talented players like the draft-eligible Gabriel Landeskog and Patrik Cehlin. A good month for Lander.

Ryan Martindale C Ottawa/OHL

DEC: 6GP 3-5-8 +2 0PIM 2 ZPG
YTD: 33GP 20-28-48 +23 18PIM

Martindale missed some time at the beginning of December due to injury, but it hasn’t slowed down his torrid offensive pace. He’s contributing both at even-strength and on the PP (1-2-3) but wasn’t invited to Team Canada’s tryout camp which is somewhat distressing to me. He’s obviously scoring well enough to be invited and he’s a large mammal capable of getting physical. Let’s hope Martindale takes this the right way and dedicates himself to making the cut next year, instead of sulking.

Linus Omark W Edmonton/NHL

DEC AHL: 3GP 1-2-3 +1 0PIM 5SH 2 ZPG
YTD AHL: 26GP 13-11-24 +6 28PIM 67SH
DEC NHL: 8GP 1-4-5 -1 4PIM 7SH 102.22 TOI 5ZPG

Damn Swede, making my life difficult trying to Excel two separate leagues. No matter, as Omark’s season has taken a turn for the better with his recall to Edmonton. He’s brought his crafty talents and dogged determination with him, but is still a very streaky scorer in both leagues. He should push for increased ice-time with Edmonton, and may not see the AHL again this year.

Magnus Paajarvi LW Edmonton/NHL

DEC: 13GP 2-6-8 +5 4PIM 26SH 192.03 TOI 7 ZPG
YTD: 35GP 4-10-14 +1 10PIM 67SH 500.16 TOI

Magnus rebounded from his November O-fer in dramatic fashion this month, putting up points and earning increased ice time. His +5 is a testament to his defensive acumen and speed, as he’s consistently the first forward back in the defensive zone to take care of his assignments. His shot totals are also improving, which should bring good things in the New Year.

Tyler Pitlick RW Medicine Hat/WHL

DEC: 11GP 4-9-13 -2 4PIM 2 ZPG
YTD: 33GP 15-21-36 +2 23PIM

That Pitlick didn’t earn an invitation to Team USA’s tryout camp is more an indication of USA’s increased depth than it is a factor of Pitlick’s season, as I discussed previously. Pitlick was without one of his team’s leading lights (Linden Vey or Emerson Etem) for the final six games of December’s schedule, but that didn’t stop him from amassing a 9-game scoring streak (broken the last game of December) during that stretch. He’s putting up good numbers at even-strength with only four powerplay assists in December, but I thought he’d have figured out the defensive side of the WHL by now.

Kristians Pelss RW Edmonton/WHL

DEC: 5GP 2-3-5 +6 5PIM 2ZPG
YTD: 30GP 4-9-13 +8 17PIM

Who saw this coming? Seriously. Pelss has become an every-day player for Edmonton and respresented his home country of Latvia in the Division-1 U-20 WJCs, helping them to a gold-medal finish. Upon his return to Edmonton he promptly put up a multi-point effort. He’s finally earning the trust of the coaching staff (well, at least he’s being trusted more than Cameron Abney, hah), and is making things happen. Not bad for a kid even the internet hadn’t heard of on draft-day.

Toni Rajala RW Ilves/SM-Liiga

DEC: 5GP 1-2-3 +2 2PIM 28SH 82.38 TOI 3ZPG
YTD: 22GP 6-6-12 -5 4PIM 105SH 336.03 TOI

Rajala’s season isn’t going as well as some might have hoped, but they fail to remember that the SM-Liiga is a very good league full of men and Jesse Niinimaki. Okay, the last part may not be exactly endearing, but the fact remains Rajala is keeping his head above water juggling professional hockey and Finland’s dated tradition of mandatory military service. Between those two things he’s also managing to moonlight for Team Finland in Buffalo. He’s a very busy man this year, so credit where it’s due. He’s shooting from everywhere this year to some success and is starting to be more defensively responsible.

Chris VandeVelde C Oklanoma/AHL

DEC: 11GP 1-1-2 -1 10PIM 16SH 9ZPG
YTD: 33GP 4-5-9 -7 24PIM 39SH

We didn’t expect VandeVelde to bring his much talked-about offense from the NCAA to the professional ranks, and December seems to follow that logic. He’s been put in a shut-down role on the Barons and is fairing adequately by indications of +/- this month. I don’t know what more to expect from one of the Oilers’ oldest prospects, but it’s not as if he’s putting up the numbers to warrant a call-up.

Jordan Bendfeld D Oklahoma/AHL

DEC: 6GP 0-0-0 +4 16PIM 5SH 6ZPG

Bendfeld is seeing his first AHL action of the season in December. That’s a bit of a tell as to how far down the organizational depth chart he is. For what it’s worth, he doesn’t appear to be in over his head this time. He’s playing the role of policeman well and isn’t getting killed in the defensive zone. To me, he seems to be earning more and more game action.

Jeremie Blain D Acadie-Bathurst/QMJHL

DEC: 8GP 1-7-8 +5 10PIM 0 HITS 1ZPG
YTD: 10GP 1-8-9 +5 12PIM 5 HITS

He’s finally back and healthy. I almost forgot he was capable of blueline offense, but I guess when we don’t hear from a prospect for a while we tend to forget about him. His return is a rejuvenating shot in the arm for the Titan as he is a leader on this team (assistant captain) and a valuable offensive weapon. Stay healthy kid.

Kyle Bigos D Merrimack/NCAA

DEC: 2GP 0-0-0 0 4PIM 10SH 2ZPG
YTD: 15GP 0-4-4 +2 42PIM 30SH

Merrimack played 3 games in December. Bigos didn’t do much in two of them. Moving on...

Taylor Chorney D Oklahoma/AHL

DEC: 11GP 2-3-5 +1 6PIM 14SH 8ZPG
YTD: 34GP 2-10-12 +5 16PIM 51SH

Chorney isn’t quite the offensive defenseman he was thought to be anymore, but appears to have morphed himself into a serviceable depth option for an NHL team. He’s still putting up a lot of his points on the powerplay (2 assists of 5 points this month), but it’s still a respectable total for a blueliner. He’s a bit streaky with his points though, as two of his games contributed four of his points.

Brandon Davidson D Regina/WHL

DEC: 10GP 1-4-5 +3 4PIM 5 ZPG
YTD: 37GP 5-25-30 -4 32PIM

Another month of solid offensive contribution for Davidson. What's more impressive is his +/- is starting to take a turn for the better. He's rounding into form and might be an option at the next level if he can prove adequate defensively.

Troy Hesketh D Chicago/USHL

DEC: 2GP 0-0-0 -2 2PIM 1SH
YTD: 23GP 0-0-0 -11 30PIM 8SH

More of the same from Hesketh here. What’s more is that he appears to have had a falling-out with his team. There are rumours he’s been dealt, but nothing official as of yet. Deal or no deal, I think his hockey scholarship to Wisconsin might be in jeopardy.

Martin Marincin D Prince George/WHL

DEC: 7GP 1-4-5 +1 2PIM
YTD: 33GP 10-25-35 +6 37PIM

Marincin continues his impressive season and earned a place on the Slovak Junior squad for the second straight year. There's really not much to say here that hasn't been said before, Marincin is a WHL stud.

Johan Motin D Oklahoma/AHL

DEC: 10GP 0-1-1 -7 8PIM 9SH 9ZPG
YTD: 29GP 1-3-4 -9 26PIM 23SH

Motin’s a tough nut to crack this year, as he’s been wildly inconsistent from month to month. This was not one of his good periods as he didn’t score and his ability to play defence went in the tank. HS’d once in December he may be losing playing time to Bendfeld or a veteran AHLer sometime soon.

Jeff Petry D Oklahoma/AHL

DEC AHL: 8GP 3-5-8 +1 4PIM 24SH 3ZPG
YTD AHL: 31GP 7-15-22 -8 16PIM 72SH
DEC NHL: 2GP 0-1-1 -2 0PIM 4SH 1ZPG

The development of Jeff Petry took a strong upward spike this month, and may not plateau out for a while. He’s fixed his defensive shortcomings, as evidenced by his much improved +/-, while still putting up above-average point totals. He’s earned his way to the NHL club and didn’t look out of place in his two-game stint. Edmonton needs a player of Petry’s skill-set dearly at this point with Ryan Whitney’s injury troubles. The former Michigan State Spartan may have earned his way into an NHL job for the next decade.

Alex Plante D Oklahoma/AHL

DEC: 10GP 0-0-0 +2 10PIM 8SH 10ZPG
YTD: 32GP 1-5-6 +4 66PIM 30SH

Plante continues to improve towards mastering AHL offenses, but it came at the expense of his ability to produce his own offence this month. No matter though, as Plante fits a niche market attractive to many NHL minds. He’s a big body, he likes to hurt people, and is improving his mobility. A very real option for recall at any time and might not be in the AHL for much longer.

Tyler Bunz G Medicine Hat/WHL

DEC: 9GP 6W3L .923SV% 2.28GAA 1SO
YTD: 26GP 17W7L .916SV% 2.47GAA 2SO

Bunz continues to improve on his stats and has taken control of the #1goalie duties for MH. In his one relief appearance this month, he stonewalled the opposing team for the last 37 minutes of the game, allowing his team to come from behind to win. I’m starting to become a fan of Bunz’s and think he was well worth the investment of a 5th round pick. When he loses he tends to lose in spectacular fashion, we’re not talking a 2-1 loss here, he’ll need to cut down on that to be taken seriously.

Bryan Pitton G Oklahoma/AHL

Pitton did not play a game in December, even with Jeff Deslauriers on loan to Team Canada’s Spengler Cup entry.

Olivier Roy G Acadie-Bathurst/QMJHL

DEC: 3GP 2W1L 0.883SV% 3.38GAA
YTD: 21GP 0.904SV% 2.95GAA 1SO

Regardless of his inconsistent play, Roy was named to Team Canada’s squad in Buffalo. He’s been going downhill since November now, and hasn’t exactly been stellar for Team Canada thusfar. Is he cracking under pressure, or are holes in his game starting to show through at the highest level? I think we should be concerned about our #1 goalie prospect, he’s close to being passed by Tyler Bunz in my opinion.

Beware the Latvians

2011-01-13T23:56:00.003-06:00

I’m almost done with the December prospect statistics. Seriously I am. It just so happens that I got distracted on something peculiar.

I noticed when compiling the stats for our WHL prospects that something was amiss. There was a long stretch of games where both of our Edmonton Oil Kings prospects were not playing in any games. I can understand one of the two missing a game here and there, because Cameron Abney really has lost his way as a hockey player, but for both Abney and Pelss to be out indefinitely? Something’s up here.

And sure enough, there was a perfectly reasonable explanation for both of them missing time. Abney for the aforementioned horrendous play, and Pelss for a much better reason.

He was helping his home country of Latvia win their way back to the spotlight of International Junior Hockey. Team Latvia, along with the Danes will be back in their place as Canada’s doormat next year in Calgary/Edmonton, both having won their way back as champions of the 2010 U-20 Division 1 Championship.

Our own Kristians Pelss was a leading light on his team, coming in tied for 4th in team scoring as an 18-year old. His final totals of 5GP 2-2-4 aren’t anything flashy but his PIM total of 31 is easily the highest on his team. He must have a bit of agitator in him to garner that kind of statistic. The team lead in points went to a 19-year old player, and fittingly so as this is primarily a tournament for upperclassmen, but Pelss’ respectable showing bodes well for his country’s team and his club team back in Canada. If he can step up his scoring prowess for Edmonton it’ll go a long way in raising his stock within the Oilers’ organization.

As the story unfortunately goes in the promotion/relegation of countries on a year-to-year basis as is the way in the IIHF’s current format, Latvia (and Denmark) will go from champions one year to likely cannon-fodder in 2011. It isn’t the greatest format, and one I’d certainly like to see changed (relegated top-tier teams and promoted Div1 teams should square off pre-tournament to determine who plays in which division, in my humble opinion), but that’s not for the here and now. Coming to Latvia’s aid next year is the fact that Pelss will be one year older and still eligible for the tournament, as will some kid by the name of Zemgus Girgensons, who played in this year’s tourney as a 17-year old and put up 4-3-7 over the five games. He’ll likely be the go-to guy next year, with Pelss riding shotgun as all the other top-10 scorers from this year will not be eligible in 2011.

So congratulations to Kristians Pelss and the rest of Team Latvia. Next year? Get ready for the pain.

I'm not dead yet

2011-01-10T21:04:00.002-06:00

To those wondering when I'm going to get off my ass and get December's stats up, sorry.

I just got my laptop back from it's tour of hell (AKA the techie) for the second goddamned time in two months. Stats should be up in a day or two.

On Tyler Pitlick and the World Juniors

2010-12-09T19:49:00.002-06:00

Word reached us earlier in the week that Tyler Pitlick will not be attending Team USA’s “tryout camp”, and was met with a lot of hand-wringing among Oilerdom. A couple of explainations were put forth, with many of them nicking Pitlick because he spurned NCAA hockey in favour of the CHL this past offseason. The hole in this theory rests with Jack Campbell’s selection to the team. Gone are the days where the American team was as close-minded as the Ruskies, they’re pulling the best talent from wherever they can find it.

While it’s hard to take initially, there are a lot of factors at play here that may benefit Pitlick and Team USA in the long run.

Pitlick is off to a decent start with Medicine Hat, but results have been a tad underwhelming. We had been led to believe that young Pitlick would immediately get to work dominating WHL competition. A slow October gave way to a better November yet he was passed over by a couple of curious selections, filling out Team USA’s 29 man camp roster. With as many as six returning forwards from last year’s Gold medal winning team, Pitlick was in tough to crack this roster to begin with. The newcomers to the selection camp are of similar stature to Pitlick and will bring the tenacity and speed that was a hallmark of last year’s entry. Also along for the ride in what may be a case similar to Jordan Schroeder is 5’6” Rocco Grimaldi who is eligible for the 2011 entry draft.

If Team USA had used the same style of selection camp that the Canadians are fond of, there is little doubt in my mind that Pitlick would have been among the names called. I have to say I’m a fan of the Americans’ camp (minus the lack of goaltending competition) because the coaching staff have fewer players they have to focus on before making a decision. However Pitlick is not on this roster, which leaves him in Medicine Hat for a lenghy duration, possibly minus two of his star teammates.

Unlike Pitlick who did not make the selection camp roster, Anaheim’s 2010 first rounder Emerson Etem is vying for a spot. Selected two spots before Pitlick, Etem possesses that effortless speed that the American brass has been fond of in recent years. While speed isn’t exactly a weakness of Pitlick’s game, it can’t be called a strength either. A flashy scorer with some grit to his game, Etem could fill multiple roles for the American squad. This leaves a hole in the Hat’s top-2 lines, especially if Etem is suiting up for Team USA come boxing day.

Another traning camp invite went to Canadian Linden Vey, the leading scorer for the Tigers. Vey has been on fire early this year and would be considered a huge loss to Medicine Hat over the Christmas break. I don’t know much about Vey other than he’s been around the Dub for what seems like forever. He’s bounced around quite a bit but has found a home on Medicine Hat’s top line. He’s a year older than both Pitlick and Etem and has the offensive game to crack the Canadians’ final roster if he has a good camp and catches some instant chemistry with similarly skilled players.

All this means that Tyler Pitlick could be missing two key teammates in Medicine Hat and might be looked upon to fill the void. This is a great chance for us to get a better idea of what Pitlick can bring in the WHL. If he’s able to step up in the absence of Etem and Vey it’ll mean that Pitlick is on track at becoming a Top-6 guy at the NHL level. If the Tigers falter without their two stars it’ll be on Pitlick that most of that blame falls. Time to see if the move from NCAA hockey was worth it.

Prospects Live!

2010-12-04T01:09:00.004-06:00

The night of Friday, December 3rd 2010 will not soon be forgotten. The AHL’s newest franchise, Edmonton’s affiliate the Oklahoma City Barons made what will be an annual pilgrimage to Manitoba to battle the Moose. It’s a match-up of future members of Northwest Division rivals, and both franchises have some nice things to look forward to if today’s game was any indication.

Attending tonight’s game was a gathering of Winnipeg’s Oilogosphere community. Along with myself, the Junior Vice-President of Bubbling Under, were two superb commenters who I happened to first come to know from visiting Lowetide’s fine site. Providing witty insight, and scamming free beer off the fine-featured waitresses of our pre-game boozenglug was the irreverent Showerhead. He is a man I’ve come to know on a more personal level ever since we discovered we share a passion for the field of Environmental Sciences, and have since taken two University classes together. I also had the pleasure of meeting another wise commenter in Icecastles, a man who has likely seen more snow in his life than most 70-year olds have, and still manages to remain loyal to the Oilers. As quick with his humour as he is with his adept hockey commentary, it was a pleasure meet the man and share a couple hours of drinking and hockey. There was also a friend of Showerhead, whose moniker will be Chris, because he lacks a handle around the Oilogosphere that I know of. Chris was indispensible, providing more colourful commentary and, well, shelled out the money up-front for the tickets.

Said tickets, it should be noted, were primo. First row between the blueline and faceoff circle, Barons attacking zone for two of three periods. We were so close to the action that Shawn Belle was actually able to look like he was ignoring me when I yelled “TAKE A SLAPSHOT” at him before a faceoff. While it did make for a bit of a trying time identifying things like breakout structure and defensive posture of the Oilers prospects, Showerhead always had to be on his game to avoid a glass-rattling hit from Johan Motin up-ending his overpriced alcoholic beverage.

My initial thoughts on the size of these fine upstanding gentlemen as the game was in its infancy is that these are some large mammals we’re dealing with. Alex Giroux stood out in my eyes as being much larger than advertised. Alex Plante also remains one of the largest defensemen I’ve seen. But the player that stood out more than the rest was Manitoba’s starting goaltender, a rookie by the name of Eddie Lack. He’s Dubnyk-sized and then some.

The Moose have a lot of things going for them this year, but have been treading water in the middle of the pack in the North Division. They found an adequate replacement for first round draft pick Cory Schneider between the pipes in the aforementioned Lack, who interestingly enough is the son of the goaltending coach previously employed by Florida’s goalie of the future, Jakob Markstrom. The Canucks took a flyer on him this off-season, betting on his bloodlines and look to have another NHL-calibre goaltender in the fold. He impressed me with his positioning and puck-moving abilities. The Moose are a veteran-laden team up front for the most part, but also feature a tandem of young first rounders in Jordan Schroeder, who scored, and Cody Hodgson, who did not. Both had relatively unspectacular nights and had gone somewhat unnoticed by my counterparts. A conversation with Showerhead went as such:

Showerhead: Hodgson was a fairly highly touted draft pick, wasn’t he? He seems to have lost a lot of his career already.

Doritogrande: He’s coming back from a pretty serious back injury that limited his playing time last year. Think of him like JF Jacques, with talent.

--------------

The Barons are a nice mix of veteran forwards and green blueliners this year, and tonight was no exception. They iced the following line-up:

Giroux-Moran-Macdonald
Omark-O’Marra-Reddox
Stewart-VandeVelde-Ondrus
Cornet-Kytnar-Hartikainen

Chorney-Plante
Bendfeld-Motin
Belle-Petry

Gerber

I’ll start with those I’ve identified as Bubbling Under’s prospects, and then talk a little about the team as a whole.

Linus Omark is one slick fucker. He’s got a reputation as a turnover machine and tonight was no exception. But as is the common refrain when Hemsky’s turnovers are mentioned, players that control the puck more are bound to turn over the puck more often. Omark’s linemates went out of their way to get Omark the puck, because he can do things with it. Created offense all night long by stick-handling through traffic, spotting the open man and outhustling his opponent to loose pucks. Did a lot of great work on the boards battling with men much larger than he, and showed off some impressive speed in a couple instances. Drew two penalties due to his hard work and constant motor. Clearly at the top of the AHL calibre players and wouldn’t look out of place on the Oilers. Oh, and he tried to pull his lob-shot out in the shootout. He started his attempt off with a spin-o-rama to pick up the puck and carry it in across the blue line. It made the four of us giggle with delight and want to have his babies. Okay, maybe just me. He’s an entertainer.

Chris VandeVelde was pegged as the de-facto checking center tonight, and was given the linemates befitting a player that the coaching staff wants in a defined role. He was able to saw-off the Moose top line of Hodgson-Volpatti-Shirokov with a little help from his friends. He showed good hustle, average speed and good skills in the faceoff dot. Although he appeared to defer to Milan Kytnar once in the third period when both young centers were on the ice together (a draw that Kytnar did win). Wasn’t shy in throwing his weight around in the corners either. Was the last Barons shooter in the SO and wasn’t able to impress, attempting to out-deke Lack only to run out of both time and space rather quickly. Wasn’t a good effort, especially with Reddox and Moran left on the bench.

Phil Cornet showed some hustle and a lot of try, but wasn’t much of a factor. He also didn’t get much ice-time so it wasn’t like much else could be expected about him.

Milan Kytnar was effective in the time he was given. Good positioning and faceoff skills. His speed is somewhat lacking at the AHL level and will hold him back from going any farther in his career.

To see Teemu Hartikainen on the fourth line was, to be honest, a shock. He got some extra time on the PP but didn’t put it to good use tonight. He was faster than I thought given most of the scouting reports knock his top speed. He’s also a battler along the boards and is willing to go into traffic with the puck. Drew a penalty by keeping his feet moving. A so-so effort in the shootout. He’s got a long way to go apparently, but he’s on track.

Taylor Chorney....The four of us had a nice comment on him when we noticed his jersey number. #4...check. Taylor...check. Chorney...damn. So close. To be truthful though, he was rushing the puck in a style similar to Edmonton’s current #4 tonight. It didn’t really work that well unfortunately. He was in good position most of the time tonight, but was caught flat-footed a couple times and took a careless tripping penalty in his zone. If my eyes were good tonight, he and Plante were facing the top two lines of Manitoba for a good chunk of the night.

Alex Plante is, as mentioned, a large mammal. He was good positionally except for a twenty-second stretch late in overtime where he made two successive mistakes. He was able to use his speed and physical prowess to make up for the first, throwing the Moose attacker to the ice in a rather impressive forearm shiver. He was taken wide about 15 seconds later and wasn’t able to recover, and was forced to take a hooking penalty to negate a dangerous scoring chance. Made up the second PP unit with Chorney but seemed tentative to unleash his shot from the point, preferring to pass to the sideboards time and time again.

Johan Motin knows how to finish checks, but doesn’t know how to stay out of the sin-bin. Took two penalties tonight for hooking/tripping infractions that could have been avoided through better positioning and speed. He’s regressing as a prospect in my opinion, not only due to the influx of new prospects to the system, but his own mental mistakes.

Jordan Bendfeld drew into tonight’s game, and holy hell did he make an impact. I’ll assume something’s up with Richard Petiot because a veteran presence would have helped tonight. Bendfeld’s shining moment came when he popped a moose forward center-ice just as he was receiving a pass. He came high and brought an elbow to the player’s head which resulted in an immediate whistle. That still didn’t stop former first round pick Ryan Parent from attempting to blind-side the forgotten prospect. Even though he didn’t seem prepared for the act of goonery, Bendfeld emphatically dropped Parent with a couple of quick haymakers. Two minutes for elbowing, two for roughing and a pat on the back from the entire Barons team.

Jeff Petry was an impressive physical specimen, both in his size and his skating ability. What surprised me was that he and Shawn Belle were kept away from the Moose’s top players at even strength. I had thought that Petry was taking on tough opposition but this wasn’t the case tonight. It is important to note however that the Petry-Belle tandem was the first over the boards on both SH and PP chances, and that’s a good sign for the young prospect. Maybe they’re taking the lessons learned from Chorney (throwing the kid into the deep end and hope he knows how to swim), and are bringing Petry along slower at EV but with added special teams responsibilities. Was relatively high-event tonight, on the ice for both Barons goals and one goal against.

A note on Gerber. He’s exactly what this team needs in net, especially with a blue-line as bereft of veteran presence as this one. He was solid tonight and came within a perfect Sergei Shirokov shot over his glove-hand from extending the SO. He’s also got a great mental attitude, as was demonstrated perfectly during the second period. The rowdies near us decided this was the best time to start the ever popular let’s-try-and-say-the-goalie’s-name-in-a-mocking-fashion trick. Hilarity ensued.

Showerhead: Stupid people. Gerber’s unbreakable!

Doritogrande: Uh...didn’t he break his neck last year?

Showerhead: ....so?

The Barons veteran forwards, to finish off my synopsis didn’t show up ready to play tonight, with the exception of Liam Reddox. The ginger was everywhere and was gifted the game’s first goal courtesy the best pass Marco Rosa has ever made. Note: Rosa plays for the Moose. Reddox had a full five seconds in front of Lack to deke seven different ways, finally and mercifully putting the puck five-hole. Giroux managed an assist on a nice pass to Belle coming into the zone late, but didn’t create much more offense than that. Moran was even more invisible. These two, along with Ryan O’Marra have to be better if they hope to take the second game of the back-to-back tomorrow night.

Thanks for reading, hope you enjoyed the game as much as I did.

Prospect Statistics - November

2010-12-02T19:32:00.004-06:00

Apologies for my lack of posting during the month of November. Turns out my laptop isn’t as bulletproof as the price-tag suggested it should be. Nor is the extended warranty.

But I digress. November saw a couple of prospects pull away from the pack, while others came crashing back down to Earth after putting up successful showings in October. 2010 is turning out to be a banner year for Stu MacGregor, our resident talent finder, but it appears that the lustre is quickly dulling on 2009.

On a formatting note, I can’t stand the way I tried to organize the October stats, so I’ll be tweaking them yet again. Please comment if you’ve got suggestions on how this can be improved.

*Edit: I’ve not yet completed the icetime totals for our NHL prospects (Eberle, Hall, Paajarvi) and would like to get this thing up ASAP. I’ll have a second post up later on with their respective icetimes and comments.

Cameron Abney RW Edmonton/WHL
NOV 9GP 0-0-0 -2 9PIM 9ZPG
YTD 24GP 3-1-4 -4 26 PIM

Best use of a 3rd round pick ever? He’s a tough guy who appears unwilling to goon it up anymore. What good is he now that his burgeoning offensive talent has dried up? Didn’t dress for the last two games of November.

Phil Cornet Wing Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 5GP 0-0-0 -2 2PIM 2SH 5ZPG
YTD 15GP 0-2-2 -3 2PIM 12SH

Not sure what to expect here, as I didn’t peg him as an every-day player in OKC this year. Missed 6 games in a row in early November, likely due to JF Jacques’ conditioning stint. He’s not on a feature line, so the points aren’t likely to come. He’s also not pushing for additional ice time with his performances, so he’s likely in “next year territory” already.

Drew Czerwonka LW Kootenay/WHL
NOV 8GP 2-1-3 +3 13PIM 5ZPG
YTD 23GP 7-5-12 -1 26PIM

He’s come back down from his soaring heights of October, but he’s still producing at a respectable level for what he is (a 6th round pick). He’s seeing powerplay time (one PP goal this month) so his point totals should be taken with a grain of salt. Interesting player steadily earning the trust of his coaches.

Robby Dee C Maine/NCAA
NOV 5GP 0-1-1 +1 2PIM 15SH 4ZPG
YTD 13GP 5-7-12 +4 4PIM 36SH

As well as the month of October was to our long-lost 2005 draft pick, November was the polar opposite. His Maine squad had a very infrequent schedule which might have had some effect on his consistency, but that’s a poor excuse for a collegiate athlete who at 23 should be dominating the league. On a positive note, his faceoff percentages are hovering around 60% on the year (62% in November in just under 200 attempts). He, like VandeVelde, might garner a contract due to his toolbox meshing nicely with what the Oilers organization needs (big bodied C with faceoff skill).

Jordan Eberle RW Edmonton/NHL
NOV 14GP 0-7-7 -6 2PIM 22SH 7ZPG
YTD 23GP 4-11-15 -4 4PIM 41SH

Eberle continues to impress me at the NHL level with his consistency and work ethic. He’s the best of the kids and the coaches are rewarding his growth with special teams time (one powerplay assist). His lack of goal scoring is of little concern to me because he’s still creating offense. Some will point out that he’s been a premier goal scorer wherever he’s played in the past, but then again Liam Reddox was pegged as a top-6 guy or nothing at all coming out of junior, most kids will be different players once they mature. Hoping for more good things to come.

Taylor Hall LW Edmonton/NHL
NOV 14GP 4-3-7 -1 2PIM 36SH 8ZPG
YTD 23GP 6-6-12 -5 6PIM 55SH

Hall is improving over the last two months, and that’s a great sign for Oilers fans. He’s shooting, he’s more involved in the overall game, and he’s got confidence playing with Eberle and old man Horcoff. It’s great to see chemistry developing with our youngest player and our most responsible two-way forward and it’ll bode well for Hall’s future if he can be relied upon in all three zones. He’s scoring at even strength (3-2-5) as well as the PP (1-1-2) and his production has been consistent (only one multi-point game in November). The only question I have left is whether he can sustain this positive growth throughout the months to come.

Curtis Hamilton Wing Saskatoon/WHL
NOV 11GP 7-11-18 +13 0PIM 2ZPG
YTD 26GP 15-22-37 +26 6PIM

An outstanding month for our Dub stud has seen his stock rise on a National level, with an invite to Team Canada’s U-20 tryout camp. Hamilton has shown the ability to score at will and, perhaps more importantly, remain healthy. A big body who knows how to create offense on the PK (scored a SH goal this month) is a welcome commodity to any team. He might not be the kind of guy TC is looking at using in a Top-6 role for this year’s team, but I doubt they’ll find a better energy/role player who has a 6’3” frame. I’ll be surprised if he isn’t playing key minutes in Buffalo over Christmas.

Teemu Hartikainen RW Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 11GP 3-3-6 -3 10PIM 22SH 6ZPG
YTD 23GP 7-4-11 -11 17PIM 47SH

Hartikainen is doing what we thought he’d be doing in a Pro North-American league; score goals. He’s been very effective on the powerplay, all his goals this month came courtesy the man-advantage, but he’s still giving a lot back in terms of scoring chances the other way. He’s improving in this regard, his +/- is nowhere near as bad as his October statistic, but there’s lots of room to improve still.

Kellen Jones Wing Quinnipiac/NCAA
NOV 8GP 1-0-1 -1 6PIM 12SH 7ZPG
YTD 15GP 4-4-8 -1 25PIM 30SH

Not a lot of promising performances to write about for the wundertwins at Quinnipiac this month. Both brothers have been relatively ineffective. What’s more concerning is that their struggles appear to be affecting the team, who have been in a tailspin since the Jones’ offense dried up. As Kellen and Connor go, so too does their team. They’ve got to get back to their scoring ways or risk losing their team, and themselves back to relative obscurity.

Milan Kytnar C Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 11GP 0-2-2 -5 4PIM 8SH 9ZPG
YTD 22GP 1-4-5 -7 6PIM 17SH

A mediocre month for Kytnar. His offense is about where we should expect is, but the minus-5 isn’t what I was led to believe was par for the course. He’s not likely to be handling hard minutes as the Barons are a veteran-laden team, which makes his +/- a very disappointing stat.

Anton Lander C Timra/SEL
NOV 8GP 2-3-5 +1 4PIM 14SH 142.07TOI 4ZPG
YTD 24GP 6-6-12 +2 18PIM 40SH 434.16TOI

The 19-year old Lander is handling 3rd line duty in a professional league very well. He’s seeing on average 18 minutes of all-purpose ice time per game and is using it to score goals and keep opponents from scoring. He should be expecting a call from the Swedish junior National team where he could be the team’s top center and captain. He’s proving that his decision to stay another year in Sweden was sage advice. Continued play like this and Lander should be in line to make a direct jump to the NHL next year as a bottom-6 C.

Ryan Martindale C Ottawa/OHL
NOV 12GP 8-12-20 +12 8PIM 3ZPG
YTD 27GP 17-23-40 +21 18PIM

Okay. I’m starting to come around on the supposed “lazy oaf”. He’s kicking down the doors of the OHL along with fellow 2010 draftee Tyler Toffoli and 2011-eligible Shane Prince, and he’s doing it at even strength (5-12-17 EV scoring). It’d be interesting to see how the kids did if they were split apart, but if I’m coaching the 67’s I don’t fix what ain’t broke. Should be attending the Team Canada camp (who wouldn’t want a 6’2” center with offensive skill at least around for the tryouts?), but I’ll get over it. Keep it coming kid.

Linus Omark Wing Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 11GP 8-4-12 +4 6PIM 36SH 4ZPG
YTD 23GP 12-9-21 +5 28PIM 62SH

Linus has had a great start to the season in the AHL, but appearances are somewhat deceiving in November as his stat-line was the beneficiary of an un-repeatable performance against the Baby-Leaves. While 5 goals in a game is an impressive feat, that accounted for more than half his goal totals for the entire month. I might be nit-picking but if he’s to be garnering interest from the NHL team, he’s got to be a consistent scorer at even strength, which wasn’t the case in November (4-3-7 on the man advantage). The creativity is there and it’s being noticed, but he won’t get by on offense in Edmonton.

Magnus Paajarvi LW Edmonton/NHL
NOV 13GP 0-0-0 -8 0PIM 17SH 13ZPG
YTD 22GP 2-4-6 -4 6PIM 41SH

Ouch. An O-fer month should spell the end of Paajarvi’s season in the NHL on any team other than the Oilers. The kid’s clearly in over his head and needs more time developing at a level where he can succeed. If he’s not going to get the linemates or ice-time (he trails Hall and Eberle in both categories)in Edmonton, get him the hell outta dodge.

Tyler Pitlick RW Medicine Hat/WHL
NOV 13GP 8-5-13 +5 12PIM 5ZPG
YTD 22GP 11-12-23 +4 19PIM

Pitlick is still adjusting to life off-campus, and he’s also adjusting to a new position. He’s been moved off center, a move he’s made before. The offense is coming through in bursts (one 4 point game, one 3 point game) and he’s also contributing on the PP (1-2-3). He’s in the range of expectations I had at the start of the year, but he’s not dominating like his teammates (Linden Vey is on fire right now, Emerson Etem is no longer shooting blanks). Continued growth is important for Pitlick in all areas of the game, and we’re seeing baby steps from the 2010 2nd rounder.

Kristians Pelss RW Edmonton/WHL
NOV 11GP 1-5-6 +3 4PIM 8ZPG
YTD 25GP 2-6-8 +2 12PIM

The Latvian import seems to be getting better accustomed to the WHL, and it’s starting to show in his offensive totals. It’s coming in the form of multi-point games (3 of them for his 6 points), but we’ll take progress wherever it comes from with the 7th rounder I had no expectations of. He’s lapping Cam Abney right now, with the next goal being a guy the coach can count on for top-6 minutes.

William Quist

I don’t have anything nice to say.

Toni Rajala Wing Ilves/SM-Liiga
NOV 4GP 2-0-2 -1 2PIM 24SH 59.27 TOI 2ZPG
YTD 17GP 5-4-9 -7 2PIM 77SH 253.25 TOI

Rajala had a string of six missed games during the month of November. It could be military services, it could be a re-aggrivation of the October injury, but I don’t speak Flemish. He showed well in the games he participated in and appears to be getting a regular shift in the Top-6 when healthy. He’s been really trigger-happy this year, which I like to see. Hopefully he can find his way into more games as the season progresses and get his ass back to North America next year.

Chris VandeVelde C Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 11GP 3-2-5 +2 8PIM 14SH 7ZPG
YTD 22GP 4-3-7 -6 14PIM 23SH

The biggest area of improvement for VandeVelde is his +/-. He’s starting to understand where he has to be on the ice and is helping his team win hockey games. Point totals are nice to see, but isn’t what’ll get him to the NHL. Another month of numbers in the black and he’ll be pushing for a call-up.

Jordan Bendfeld D Stockton/ECHL

When last we chatted, I mentioned that Bendfeld had surfaced in Stockton for a game in October. Since then I’ve noticed he’s played in a couple more with middling results. I wasn’t able to get the game-by-game statistics due to an issue with the ECHL’s website. Suffice to say he’s not a threat to any of the young blueliners in Oklahoma.

Jeremie Blain D Bathurst/QMJHL

Didn’t play a game in November. He’s still injured with no timetable for his return to action.

Kyle Bigos D Merrimack/NCAA
NOV 8GP 0-2-2 -1 22PIM 11SH 6ZPG
YTD 13GP 0-4-4 +2 38PIM 20SH

Bigos is playing big on the Merrimack blueline, as his PIM totals seem to indicate. He’s not messing around and putting up the occasional assist. He’s still seeing powerplay time (1 PP assist) but the points aren’t coming as readily as last year. Still a longshot to have an NHL career but he’s having a decent enough season thusfar.

Taylor Chorney D Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 11GP 0-4-4 +3 2PIM 19SH 8ZPG
YTD 23GP 0-7-7 +4 10PIM 37SH

He was billed as an offensive defenseman, a puck-mover, when he signed out of UND three seasons ago. He’s putting up points on the PP (all four points this month) but isn’t doing much else. Not that that’s necessarily a bad thing mind, as he was known for being too “high-event” with the big club last year. If he can keep his game steady and mistake-free he might make his way back to the NHL one day.

Brandon Davidson D Regina/WHL
NOV 12GP 3-12-15 +1 17PIM 2ZPG
YTD 27GP 4-21-25 -7 28PIM

I’ll be the first to admit that when tallying the November totals for each player, I was outright surprised by Davidson’s, more than anyone else. Those single point games night in and night out really did add up for Davidson in November. He’s even improving his +/- from a month to month perspective. Has he turned the corner to the point where we can discuss a career in hockey once he graduates from junior? He’ll certainly be relying on the PP at the next level (2-4-6 in November).

Troy Hesketh D Chicago/USHL
NOV 10GP 0-0-0 -9 4PIM 5SH 10ZPG
YTD 21GP 0-0-0 -9 28PIM 7SH

Hesketh is getting schooled in a league where Jeff Petry was an All-Star. Troy is not even close. Offensively, defensively, everywhere.

Martin Marincin D Prince George/WHL
NOV 10GP 2-10-12 -4 14PIM 4ZPG
YTD 26GP 9-21-30 +5 35PIM

Marincin’s offense is continuing to hum along at a level most players can’t even dream about, but he’s starting to show holes in his all-around game. He’s still got blue-chipper written all over him, but he should be concerned about that minus-4 he’s got looming over his November. Also, he was a PP-dynamo this month, going 2-7-9.

Johan Motin D Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 10GP 1-2-3 -2 11PIM 10SH 8ZPG
YTD 19GP 1-2-3 -2 18PIM 14SH

Motin had a couple of good games in November, but it was one step forward, two steps back for the young Swedish defender. His -2 actually looks flattering, especially when noticing he had one game where he went +3. He was HS’d once in early-November and is the first defender to draw out of the line-up in favour of a more veteran presence. I wouldn’t be too surprised if he saw more of the pressbox as the season progresses.

Jeff Petry D Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 11GP 2-5-7 -1 8PIM 22SH 6ZPG
YTD 23GP 4-10-14 -9 12PIM 48SH

Petry had a much better month when judged by the metric that the first job of a defenseman is to defend. Reports are suggesting that Petry is playing fairly tough competition in the AHL, and it looks like he’s becoming better suited to his role. Offensively, Petry continues to hum along at a high level, particularly on the powerplay (1-3-4 in November). He also has a SH goal to his credit. Consistency is key for Petry if he wants to see NHL hockey this year.

Alex Plante D Oklahoma/AHL
NOV 10GP 1-3-4 +4 24PIM 14SH 6ZPG
YTD 22GP 1-5-6 +2 56PIM 22SH

Plante continues to gain momentum as a professional defenseman. He’s putting up a bit of offense, preventing the opponents to score, and laying a beatdown on anyone who so much as looks at him the wrong way. He’s exactly the type of defenseman the Oilers need right now. Could see NHL action in the new year.

Tyler Bunz G Medicine Hat/WHL
NOV 10GP 8W 0.923 SV% 2.27GAA 1SO
YTD 17GP 11W 0.913 SV% 2.57GAA 1SO

Tyler Bunz is trending up. He’s finally getting a starting goaltender’s workload and he’s proving that the faith in him is well deserved. He had a great November from a statistic viewpoint where he outplayed the front-runner for the U-20 starting goalie (also an Edmonton prospect). Nice things for a late-round pick.

Bryan Pitton G Oklahoma/AHL

Pitton didn’t play in November with the arrival of Jeff Deslauriers to OKC. Even with the recall of Martin Gerber to Edmonton, Pitton didn’t see a minute of action even though Deslauriers had a couple of off nights. I suspect he’s played his last game for the Oilers organization.

Olivier Roy G Bathurst/QMJHL
NOV 7GP 0.890 SV% 3.54GAA
YTD 18GP 0.907 SV% 2.88GAA 1SO

Olivier Roy is being touted as the odds-on favourite to be Team Canada’s starting goaltender in Buffalo this year. Let’s hope they didn’t look at his November stats, because they aren’t very pretty. He’s playing on a weak and undermanned team in Acadie-Bathurst, he’s being counted on to be the Titan’s best player night in and night out and he’s delivering mediocre results. I wasn’t convinced he had true #1 potential, and he hasn’t done anything in November to sway me.

A Jordan Bendfeld sighting

2010-11-04T11:29:00.003-05:00

I've found him. He played a game October 16th with the Stockton Thunder. He had one shot.

Then he disappeared into the mist again. He was apparently assigned to Stockton by Edmonton on October 16th and then was re-called to OKC on the 21st. Presumably to provide a Jason Strudwick-type press-box presence.

He's still technically a prospect, and I'll try and follow him, but it apparently won't be easy.

Prospect statistics - October

2010-11-02T21:57:00.002-05:00

This edition of the Oilers prospect statistics feature a couple of 2010 draftees toiling in the WHL who are looking at break-out seasons, some tough times developing in the AHL, and an impressive month from a man trying desperately to get his career back on track.

Note: Glove tap to SumOil, a frequent contributor to C&B and fellow prospect junkie who has been working in tandem with me to provide coverage of our rookies. Credit to him for the idea to include the ZPG, or Zero Point Game statistic to identify streaky scorers.

Also, where available (the CHL, Euro and USHL) I’ll include the year to date totals in parentheses.

Cameron Abney (Edmonton, WHL)

12(15)GP 3-1-4 (3-1-4) +1(-2) 37(37) PIM 10 ZPG

A better month for the big man. He’s putting up some offense and starting to get his flippers off. Hoping for more of the same in November. His ZPGs are troubling (he scored 3 points in one game, one in another), and I’d like to see more offensive consistency.

Phil Cornet (Oklahoma, AHL)

10GP 0-2-2 -1 0PIM 10SH 8ZPG

He’s adjusting. There’s no indication he’s playing on a feature line, and was HS’d twice. He’s not getting blown out of the water but he’s also not pushing anyone for more ice-time.

Drew Czerwonka (Kootenay, WHL)

13(15) GP 5-4-9 (5-4-9) E (-2) 9(13) PIM 7 ZPG

The first of our surprises in October is Drew (Willywonka) Czwerwonka. He’s had a fantastic start offensively and unlike the other “goon” in our WHL stable, he’s performing with some consistency. He scored in just under half his October contests (7 of 13 ZPG) and has been a key component to the Ice offense. More please.

Robby Dee (Maine, NCAA)

8 GP 5-6-11 +3 2PIM 59.3 FO% 2 ZPG

Robby Dee is the book-end to the Oilers 2005 NHL draft, and he’s playing for a contract this year as he’s in his Senior year with the Black Bears. He’s doing everything right to earn said contract. Offense, check. Can win faceoffs, check. 6’2”, check-mate. It should be expected that he’s dominating NCAA-level competition at his age (he’s 23), but it seems he’s finally putting his injury troubles behind him. And good for him.

Jordan Eberle (Edmonton, NHL)

9GP 4-4-8 +2 2PIM 19SH 3ZPG
168:51TOI (124.30EV 24.15PP 20.06SH)

I’m forgetting that Eberle is a rookie at the NHL. He’s calm, he’s got poise, and he’s got balls. One of my favourite comments I’ve heard of Eberle goes something like this: The kid drinks boiling water and pisses ice cubes. Describes him perfectly. Keep it coming kid.

Taylor Hall (Edmonton, NHL)

9GP 2-3-5 -4 4PIM 19SH 6ZPG
149:26 TOI (127.12EV 21.18PP 0.56SH)

Hall is about where I expected him to be at this point in the year. He had a rough first few games on the scoreboard but showed he’s got all the talent to stick in the league this year. The points are starting to come around (4 points his last two games in October, he might be a tad streaky in getting his points), and his effort level can’t be questioned. A solid, if unspectacular first month.

Curtis Hamilton (Saskatoon, WHL)

13(15) GP 8-9-17 (8-11-19) +15(+13) 4(6)PIM 4 ZPG

Wow. There’s an impressive stat line. Hamilton is doing everything, and with amazing consistency. What’s better is that he’s staying in the line-up (injuries are a concern here). Dare we hope this to continue?

Teemu Hartikainen (Oklahoma, AHL)

12GP 4-1-5 -8 7PIM 25SH 8 ZPG

Harski’s showing he can put the puck in the net with consistency. Unfortunately he also can’t stop opponents from doing it. It’s a hell of an adjustment to the AHL, and Hartikainen (among others to come) is proof of that.

Kellen Jones (Quinnipiac, NCAA)

7GP 3-4-7 E 19PIM 18SH 2 ZPG

Jones, along with his brother Connor, is pacing the Quinnipiac offense this season. If he weren’t already 20 years old and about 5’10”, this would be better news. He’s certainly someone to follow for the next half-decade though.

Milan Kytnar (Oklahoma, AHL)

11GP 1-2-3 -2 2PIM 9SH 8 ZPG

Kytnar is a unique player on the baby Oilers in that he’s keeping his head above water and he’s a rookie. We’ve been led to believe that any offense at the professional level from Kytnar should be considered a bonus, so his 3 points are a welcome surprise. One HS in the early going.

Anton Lander (Timra, SEL)

11(16) GP 4-0-4 (4-3-7) E(+1) 8(14)PIM 18(26)SH 203:06(292:09)TOI 7 ZPG

I’m happy with Lander’s stats to this point in the season. He’s maintained his position on the Eagles (3C) and has stepped up into more feature roles when he’s been needed (two games late in the month playing on the top-2 lines). LT’s been following his faceoffs which are hovering around 48% against men. He’s been consistent thus-far, now he’s got to keep this pace.

Ryan Martindale (Ottawa, OHL)

13(15) GP 9-9-18 (9-11-20) +10(+10) 8(10)PIM 4 ZPG

Martindale, to this point in the season, is a model of consistency. He’s putting up points game in and game out, and I haven’t heard anything of his “inconsistent” or “lazy” play. He’s playing with good players, so maybe he’s motivated to perform. I want to see a stat line similar to this come the end of November, and I’ll start thinking of him more as a prospect and less a suspect.

Linus Omark (Oklahoma, AHL)

12GP 4-5-9 +1 22PIM 26SH 5 ZPG

Omark’s had a great start to the year in the minors, but given his exploits in mens leagues across the pond, should we be surprised? He’s doing most of his damage at EV (6 of 9 points) and his +1 are indicators to me that he’s got a future in the big league. Another month like this and he may force management’s hand and earn a call-up.

Magnus Paajarvi (Edmonton, NHL)

9GP 2-4-6 +4 6PIM 24SH 6 ZPG
134:03 TOI (120.47EV 12:50PP 0.23 SH)

Magnus Paajarvi has yet to have a game in the NHL where he’s scored a single point. I don’t know if that’s big news, but his streakiness might become somewhat of a concern when assessing his counting numbers at season’s end. I wish I could accurately track penalties-drawn as a stat, because he’d be lapping the field at this point. A good month for a 19-year old in the toughest league on the planet.

Tyler Pitlick (Medicine Hat, WHL)

8(9) GP 3-7-10 (3-7-10) E(-1) 2PIM 2 ZPG

Consistency is again a positive aspect of Pitlick’s game. Once he finally got adjusted to life in the Dub he looks to be coming on strong. A three-game suspension kept him out of MH’s last three games this month, and one hopes Pitlick comes back with that chip still on his shoulder.

Kristians Pelss (Edmonton, WHL)

11(14) GP 1-1-2 (1-1-2) +1(-1) 4(8)PIM 9 ZPG

He’s scored his first WHL goal, so he’s met my expectations. Everything else at this point is all gravy. HS’d once, I don’t think he’s seeing feature minutes, nor is he likely pushing for them.

Toni Rajala (Ilves, SM-Liiga)

9(13) GP 2-2-4 (3-4-7) -5(-6) 0PIM 34(53)SH 7 ZPG 137:39(193:58)TOI

Rajala’s coming back from injury this month (missed the first two games this month, the last three of September), and one thinks he isn’t 100%. He’s getting torched in the defensive zone though, which is a concern as he was doing very well in this aspect last year in Brandon. Impressive shot totals though. I’d like more consistency (his four points came in only two games) and better contribution in the defensive zone.

Chris VandeVelde (Oklahoma, AHL)

11GP 1-1-2 -8 6PIM 9SH 10 ZPG

Here’s another rookie struggling to master proper defence in the professional ranks. He’s getting bent-over and keeps going back for more. Hope he can turn this around right quick, because we need him (well, his player type) at the NHL level. There’s a spot on the NHL team waiting for him if he can get his two-way game sorted out.

Jeremie Blain (Acadie, QMJHL)

0(2) GP 0-0-0 (0-1-1)

He’s injured. I’m not exactly sure what, but he didn’t play a shift in October and for a developing kid that’s a major concern. I’ll try and update his status as soon as I learn to speak French (don’t count on this).

Kyle Bigos (Merrimack, NCAA)

5GP 0-2-2 +3 16PIM 9SH 3 ZPG

A good month for the big bruising defenseman. He’s doing what’s needed and his team’s winning as a result. Everything’s about where I expected it to be here.

Taylor Chorney (Oklahoma, AHL)

12GP 0-3-3 +1 8PIM 18SH 9 ZPG

This is unexpected. Either Chorney’s playing (well) down the defensive depth-chart for the Barons, or he’s learned how important defence-first hockey is to a defenseman. Either case, I’m excited about his growth this month.

Brandon Davidson (Regina, WHL)

12(15)GP 1-9-10 (1-9-10) -8(-8) 4(11) PIM 4 ZPG

Not a stellar two-way kind of defenseman here, but he’s putting points up at a remarkably consistent rate. He doesn’t have much help in Regina (but there is another impressive young defender I’ll be writing about later) so I’m not overly concerned with the minus-column that’s approaching Chorney-esque levels.

Troy Hesketh (Chicago, USHL)

10(11) GP 0-0-0 (0-0-0) -1(E) 22(24PIM) 2(2)SH 10 ZPG

Didn’t expect offense here, but I’m still concerned that we don’t have...well...any offense to speak of. He’s kind of old to be playing USHL (most American s his age are at NCAA schools by this time), so he should be dominating most aspects of this level. I do like the physical/nasty side I’m seeing in his PIMs. It looks like he’s been put in a shut-down role, which is where he’ll make his living if he makes the show.

Martin Marincin (Prince George, WHL)

14(16)GP 6-11-17 (7-11-18) +9(+9) 10(21)PIM 4 ZPG

This is off-the-charts kind of surprising for me. I thought we had a defensive specialist in Marincin, but it looks like he’s got the all-around defenseman style in mind instead. There is nothing about this month I can complain about from Marincin, other than wishing for another 5 months of the same.

Johan Motin (Oklahoma, AHL)

9GP 0-0-0 E 7PIM 4SH 9 ZPG

He didn’t play in the first three games this year, but hasn’t left the line-up since. He’s probably low on the depth chart (behind Belle, Petiot, Plante, Petry and Chorney is my guess) but he’s not bleeding goals either. Keep him in the line-up and let him continue this slow curve of development.

Jeff Petry (Oklahoma, AHL)

12GP 2-5-7 -8 4PIM 26SH 7 ZPG

When Petry’s feeling the offense, it seems hard to stop him. The same cannot be said about his defensive play. He’s being pimped on the PP (5 points) for big minutes and he’s getting a lot of puck to the net, but I’d wish they told him to focus more on his defensive play, because he’s getting schooled, exactly the same way Chorney did two years ago. You’d think we’d learn, but...sigh...

Alex Plante (Oklahoma, AHL)

12GP 0-2-2 -2 32PIM 8SH 10 ZPG
If Petry’s the pop-gun on the Barons blueline, Plante’s certainly become the hired muscle. He’s taken to his role and embraced it. The way he’s playing (defensive specialist, policeman) will earn him a call-up sometime this year if he continues playing like he did in October.

Tyler Bunz (Medicine Hat, WHL)

6(7) GP .902 (.897)SV% 2.97 (2.99) GAA

Started 6 of the Hat’s 11 games, which isn’t what I would have hoped for this year. He was the undisputed #1 last year and if he’s platooning this year that means he’s taken a step backward in development. I’m no goalie guru, but his numbers look poor. He needs to turn it around.

Bryan Pitton (Oklahoma, AHL)

2GP .890 SV% 3.53GAA

He’s backing-up Martin Gerber, and delivering numbers of a traditional back-up. He won’t be getting a second NHL contract at this rate, and with the anticipated arrival of Jeff Deslauriers in OKC, he may not play another game for the Barons this year.

Olivier Roy (Acadie, QMJHL)

11GP 0.919 SV% 2.48 GAA 1 SO

He’s back between the pipes as the #1 guy (11 of 13 games in October) and delivering numbers befitting of a guy on the radar of Hockey Canada. Solid October here.

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Again, any suggestions on how I can make these updates better please let me know.

2011 Draft POI: Jesse Forsberg

2010-10-26T20:07:00.002-05:00

Jesse Forsberg is another draft-eligible player who could be on the radar of the Edmonton Oilers scouting staff. He’s toiling for the Prince George Cougars of the WHL, the same team 2010 2nd round pick Martin Marincin is currently starring for.

Listed at roughly 6’0 194 pounds make him a solidly built developing defensive defenseman. Born in mid-August is going to make him one of the youngest draft-eligible players for the 2011 draft, so there’s hope he’ll still be able to add a couple of inches onto his frame at some point.

He’s not really known for his offensive instincts, though he put up a respectable 16 points in his rookie season in the Dub. His point totals this year (1-2-3) are somewhat of a letdown from last year thusfar, but the offensive production from the back end is being more than adequately addressed by the aforementioned Marincin (6-9-15) and the previously unknown-to-me Sena Acolatse (5-10-15). Maybe he’s been asked to focus more on his defensive play.

Certainly one of the strengths of Forsberg’s game is as a policeman. He has a deceptive left hand and a willingness to get his mitts off (13 listed fights over the last two years). He’s also a leader on his team (assistant captain at 17) and comes from a family where hockey appears to be a mainstay. Jesse was selected 11th overall in the 2008 WHL bantam draft only to be beaten out numerically by his brother Alex (a center) who went 1st overall to the Cougars this past May.

The elder Forsberg (no Swedish connection) has started to garner some interest around draft junkie circles, his game has already been critiqued here and here. In an interview before the 2009/10 season (Jesse’s rookie season in the Dub) he described his offensive instincts and his physical game as his strengths, while admitted he had to work hard on his footwork and improve his ability to read the developing play. Reports this year suggest he’s improving his two-way game, and adding that leadership role to his game.

Early projections for the 2011 draft class are still sketchy, but Forsberg has himself pretty highly rated going into the season. In THN’s Major Junior preview issue, Forsberg is listed as the 6th ranked player from the WHL (fine offensive player doesn’t shy away), nestled between Michael St-Croix and Ty Rattie. Others (the second “here” link) have him projected as the 45th ranked player. If he’s around in the second round, he might be a player of interest to the Oilers.

Why would the Oilers be looking at this player type? Well, the prospect pool does lack leadership, especially from the blueline. His physicality is missing in the pipeline since the graduation of Theo Peckham. Offense from the blueline is always a valuable commodity for the Oilers. His average size may hold him back, but if he can pack on another ten or so pounds before the draft combine, he’ll be among the most physical players available in the 2011 draft.

Given the tools, I’d say he’d be a good pick-up for the 2nd-3rd round if available.

2011 Draft POI: Shane Prince

2010-10-18T10:21:00.002-05:00

The Ottawa 67s appear to this observer to be a legitimate force in the OHL this year. Five players are currently performing at a point-per-game pace through nine games. Their leading scorer however is not the highly touted Tyler Toffoli, a recent second-round pick of the LA Kings. It is also not Oilers 3rd round pick Ryan Martindale. He is unheralded Shane Prince, a 5’11” forward with a late 1992 birthday and forcing his way into the minds of scouts for the upcoming NHL draft. Currently torching the OHL for 17 points he’s tied for 4th in league scoring.

Prince should be a player of interest (POI) for the Oilers in the coming months. His statistics read a little oddly, as the OHL website has him playing in 104 regular season games last season, but we’ll ignore that. Taking just his point totals from Ottawa last year (he was traded from Kitchener) he was a 15-15-30 man but looks well on his way to eclipsing those totals this year.

The early buzz on Prince is mostly positive, with a couple mentions of his high level of competiveness, something I like to see in a prospect. He’s playing on the 1-line with Toffoli and Cody Lindsay (9 games 10 points) so he’s sure to get every opportunity to increase his offensive skills.

He’s going to need to put in a lot of work this year in order to convince NHL scouts that he’s a one-trick pony. His +/- last year was absolutely horrible on a strong 67s team. Of the top 14 skaters in terms of points, he was the only one in the red. He’s currently leading the 67s in +/- this year, but that could be as much a factor of his improved quality of linemates (they’re +3 and +5) as it is improved two-way play. If he wants to take the next step he’s going to have to show commitment to the defensive side of hockey, something I thought he’d have shown given his alleged tenacity and high compete level.

As it stands now Shane Prince would make a good mid-round selection for the Oilers. He could be nicked a couple of points because of his small size and the fact he’s a LW doesn’t make him an ideal player type for the Oilers, but he could bring another offensive dimension to the prospect pool. Continued offensive production combined with further growth of his two-way game, and he could be quickly climbing the draft lists.

I’d bet on the Oilers getting a good look at him this year as their scouts already have a reason to attend 67s games in scouting Ryan Martindale’s progress. Here’s hoping Prince performs when they’re in the building.

A case for giving Hall a birds-eye view

2010-10-14T23:00:00.004-05:00

Here's Taylor Hall, in a situation I saw a lot of in tonight's game.

Taylor Hall has now played three NHL contests, to varying degrees of success. He’s gotten his feet wet playing on a line with the team’s new captain and fellow super-rookie Jordan Eberle. After these three games the team is a respectable 2-1, and Hall has recorded his first NHL point, an assist in the Oilers’ second game of the year. Unfortunately, he’s starting to show some habits.

Bad habits.

Habits that must be addressed sooner rather than later.

Before today’s contest with the Minnesota Wild, his line-mate and mentor Shawn Horcoff had this to say:

His shifts are too long... And he has to come back deeper for the puck to open up more ice. You have to overwork to get more ice. He's taking off (too quickly) and the defencemen are right there, but that's the NHL. These things will come. He wants it so badly, he stays out there because he wants it...

It’s a harsh reality for the Oilers first rounder, but it’s also truth. Sportsnet had a graphic up before tonight’s game showing Hall’s shift-times were the highest among Oilers (50 seconds per). Not just among forwards mind, this is team-wide. More than our established first-line players and even the defensemen. That’s kind of shocking.

He cut back on his shift-times today to a more respectable 45-seconds per, which is a start in the right direction. He has to show commitment to working within his limits and taking an active approach to reigning in his shift-times is a good first step.

On to the second part of Horcoff’s constructive criticism, his tendency to fly the zone was very noticeable in today’s game, particularly in the third period. I recall one such defensive series where he did it on two occasions, only to watch Eberle’s attempted home-run pass get gobbled-up at the blueline for a 5-bell scoring chance. He’s seemingly gunning for the neutral zone as soon as a teammate gains possession of the puck, hoping for an offensive chance of his own. What he has to realize at the NHL level is that possession of the puck does not always equal a change in offensive possession, a near mathematical impossibility in fact, with Edmonton’s current defensive corps playing as it has been. His lack of commitment to ensuring the opposing threat has been eliminated is creating odd-man chances against on a nightly basis, and Hall must be made to see his failures in this area if he is to succeed.

Let’s be honest here. Taylor Hall, for all his bells and whistles, is still a teenager. We all know he’s going to make the inevitable mistake and there isn’t much we can do about it. I’ll freely take the good with the bad provided he remains on his learning curve. But like my parents always said, you have to learn from your mistakes. And tonight it became apparent that either Hall is doomed to repeat some mistakes several times, or he’s turning a deaf ear to his captain and linemate. He was flying the zone tonight exactly as was addressed before the game.

So maybe he’s not one to learn from his mistakes. How else can the coaching staff get the message across to Hall that he can’t be thinking offense before his team has gained full possession of the puck?

My solution is hinging on the possibility that he’s more of a visual learner. Maybe it’s time to sit Taylor Hall in the press-box for a game.

Some of you may feel it’s too early in the season to already be so down on Hall’s play. Some of you might be right. It is early, I understand that, but it’s never too early to instil proper practices in our future franchise player. He shouldn’t view the press-box as a demotion, more of a learning tool to help him understand how our veteran players continue to (sort-of) thrive in the NHL. He could learn a lot from watching Horcoff, Hemsky and Penner’s defensive zone presence from upstairs. Hell, I’ve never played a game of organized hockey higher than house-league myself but I think that from watching Horcoff et al. for the last five years I’ve got the gist of how to properly execute a defensive-zone breakout if I’d need the skill.

The press-box duty is also a way of delaying judgement on his 9-game tryout. Not that I’m advocating for his banishment to Windsor, but it’s still technically an option if by the end of his 9th game he’s gone 0-1-1 for -10. Press-box duty for a game (or two, situation depending) would be a much better idea than sending him back to junior. The PR nightmare alone for sending the 1st Overall back to junior would be unbelievable.

Taylor Hall will one day be a great-to-elite level hockey player in the NHL. But maybe he’d learn a thing or two from a birds-eye view on Saturday.

Prospect statistics - September

2010-10-03T22:46:00.002-05:00

This is something I’d been meaning to do a couple of days ago, but certain things (illness, bachelor party, subsequent second illness) have conspired against me. But no longer, so here I present Bubbling-Under’s September prospect statistics.

A word of warning; these stats have been compiled by a fan. This isn’t by any means definitive. This is a tool to be used by similar-minded fans to grade our prospects. Also, the CHL websites are absolutely horrible this year for personal stats-tracking applications such as this. I’ve done the best I can, and hope that in the future I can get by using eliteprospects.com for the CHL and AHL prospects.

With all that said, on to the stats. The three CHL leagues are under way, and our two prospects in the Elite Leagues in Europe have been under way for more than half a month now. I’m still awaiting word on the USHL and NCAA season openers, while the AHL and ECHL will be underway in about a week’s time.

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Cameron Abney: 3GP 0-0-0 -3 0PIM

For a fighter trying to become a well-rounded hockey player, he hasn’t done a whole hell of a lot of...well anything. A disappointing September.

Drew Czerwonka: 2GP 0-0-0 -2 4PIM

Another pugilist, but at least he’s putting up a couple of PIMs. I didn’t come into this year expecting much, so at least he’s meeting expectations.

Curtis Hamilton: 2GP 0-2-2 -2 2PIM

A solid start to the season for Hamilton, and he’s still healthy. Both are positives. Better work on that minus-column however.

Anton Lander: 5GP 0-3-3 +1 6 PIM 8 shots 89:03TOI

This is why I love eliteprospects. More stats for me to play around with and use for interpretation. Lowetide is using the top corner of his site as a shrine to Lander and his FO%. A great start to the season offensively for Lander, who is currently holding down the 3C spot for Timra and is an assistant captain.

Ryan Martindale: 2GP 0-2-2 0 2PIM

I’d hoped that Martindale would be able to be an offensive leader on this team, and he’s showing he’s fully capable of it. Here’s hoping his compete level remains high all season.

Tyler Pitlick: 1GP 0-0-0 -1 0PIM

It’s a one game sample size. Not much can be said here.

Kristians Pelss: 3GP 0-0-0 -2 4PIM

Again, a player who is coming in without expectations. Judging from his stat-line, he’s adjusting.

Toni Rajala: 4GP 1-2-3 -1 0PIM 19shots 56:19TOI

This is a nice stat line, but it must be stressed that Ilves played 7 games in September with Rajala missing the last three. That’s cause for concern. Is it injury or military? I really don’t know.

Jeremie Blain: 2GP 0-1-1 0 2PIM 5 hits

The Q is currently lapping the field in terms of CHL websites. He also has two shots, none on goal.

Brandon Davidson: 3GP 0-0-0 0 7PIM

His point totals are down from last year, but there’s no Eberle in Regina either. He looks to be holding his own defensively without Colten Teubert.

Martin Marincin: 2GP 1-0-1 0 11PIM

We’re seeing both offensive acumen and feistiness from the big Slovak. Both are qualities I like in big defensemen.

Tyler Bunz: 1GP 0.84SV% 2.90GAA

It’s one game. I’m not looking too far into these poor stats until we get a reasonable sample size.

Olivier Roy: 0GP

Acadie-Bathurst played three games in September with no sniff of Roy. Cause for concern? I think so.

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Those are the prospects who have had their seasons begin. In the months to come, I plan on updating these stats to compile season totals, while still providing monthly totals. My hope in doing this is to provide proof that a player’s stats may or may not be “sustainable” or just the product of a couple hot months.

I’ve also plans to compile these stats for some of the top upcoming draft prospects. If you have any input on whether I should attempt this, or have a specific prospect in mind for me to track please don’t hesitate to ask.

Controlled expectations: Goalies

2010-09-27T21:59:00.004-05:00

As promised, the last of the prospects. Let’s hope one of ‘em pans out better than the poor sap tending goal here.

Tyler Bunz G Medicine Hat WHL; 2009/10 stats: 57GP 31-19-5 2.91 0.898

Bunz should hope to continue his development where he left off last season, as the starting goalie for a strong Medicine Hat squadron. His numbers scream “stacked team” to me, because despite a healthy win total, his GAA and SV% aren’t what you’d expect from a quality starter, even in the Dub. Bunz is a large goalie without much draft pedigree, but you’d have to go back awhile to find a goalie drafted by the Oilers that wasn’t signed to an entry-level contract. Expect him to be signed by the end of his junior career no matter how well he’s developed. The difference makers like Emerson Etem are back for another year for the Tigers, and with the addition of Tyler Pitlick Medicine Hat should have the horses to make a push for a lengthy playoff run. Expect Bunz’s win total to be high again because of that, but I’m hoping he improves his underlying numbers considerably if he’s to be anything more than AHL fodder. Controlled expectations for Bunz are:

- Maintain the starting goalie position for the Tigers, playing in 55+ games
- Improve his GAA and SV% to approximately 2.75 and 0.908 respectively.

Bryan Pitton G Stockton/Springfield ECHL/AHL; 2009/10 stats: 22GP 9-9-3 2.85 0.921; 8GP 2-6-0 4.71 0.857

Pitton is playing out the string on his entry-level deal with the Oilers, and seeing as he isn’t fit for AHL competition at this point in his career, there’s not much doubt that he won’t be signing a second contract with the Oilers. Originally a 5th round pick back in 2006 Pitton hasn’t done badly given his draft pedigree, but then again I didn’t expect him to pan out anyway, so it’s not like this should be considered a wasted pick. Stockton was actually a pretty good team last year, but Pitton was behind the undrafted Andrew Perugini for most of the year, a sign of how far down the depth chart he fell. After earning (in other words, we had no other options) his call-up to the AHL, Pitton played like he was in over his head on a truly horrible AHL team. Those numbers are downright ugly. With the off-season acquisition of Martin Gerber (or one of JDD/DD) serving as the workhorse in Oklahoma this year, it appears Pitton will be sent packing to Cali again. Beaches and sun on his off-days while getting paid by an NHL team to occasionally stop a puck, he must be in hell. Controlled expectations for Pitton are:

- Play well enough to entice another professional team into paying him money to stop pucks

Olivier Roy G Cape Breton QMJHL; 2009/10 stats: 54GP 32-21-0 2.62 0.908

I’m kind of worried about Oliver Roy, to tell the truth. Traded to the Acadie-Bathurst Titan in the off-season, Roy has yet to play a game for his new club which is already seven games into its season according to hockeydb. Is he injured? Is he being traded again? Did he lose his starting spot to this guy? Roy is seen as the goalie of the future for this organization in some circles, but he’s got a lot of work ahead of him if he’s going to impress me. He’s been a starting goalie in the Q-league for the past three seasons, so I’m expecting him to dominate in his final season...whenever he starts playing. As an under-sized goalie who relies on sound positioning and reflexes, Roy needs to remain in top-shape to be effective, and sitting in the press-box for an extended period of time isn’t going to help our top goalie prospect. Controlled expectations for Roy are:

- Assume control of the starting goalie position, playing in 50+ games this year
- Continued forward progress in his stats, GAA around 2.50 and SV% of 0.920
- Compete for Team Canada’s goalie tandem for this year’s U-20 tournament.

Controlled Expectations: Blue and Goal

2010-09-26T22:06:00.003-05:00

I told you all I’d have the Bubbling Under’s defense and goalie controlled expectations for our prospects up and running, and I’m finally making good on that promise. As earlier, last year’s stats are taken from hockeydb, unless otherwise noted.

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Jordan Bendfeld D Stockton/Springfield ECHL/AHL; 2009/10 stats: 52GP 0-10-10 91PIM, 10GP 0-1-1 7PIM

Jordan hasn’t had a lot of positive press in recent years. He was drafted in 2008 when the Phoenix Coyotes (2006) didn’t sign him to an entry level contract. Many among the Oilogosphere thought it was a waste of a pick, and that Bendfeld would be available to be signed as a free agent after the draft. I think that if the Oilers scouting staff saw something they liked, they made a good decision by taking him. His career path is a bit staggered, due to injury in 2008-09. He came back strong last year and played well in the ECHL, earning a call-up at the end of the AHL season where he didn’t look out of place (he was -2 over his 10-game audition). I think we’ll see some nice things from Bendfeld this year. Controlled expectations for Bendfeld are:

- Play more games in the AHL than the ECHL this year.
- Improve work in the defensive zone, with a respectable plus-minus (-5 on the season in the AHL)
- Score a goal in regular season AHL play.

Kyle Bigos D Merrimack NCAA; 2009/10 stats: 36GP 4-7-11 94PIM

I don’t think Bigos is playing in the right league, to be honest with you, and his 94PIM attest to it. NCAA isn’t a league where rough play is tolerated. He’s also not what you’d call a “freshman” as he began his college career at age 20. His point totals are nice, but not something that should be expected at the next level. He’s said to have a plus slap-shot and is a massive man, but I don’t see much of a player here. Controlled expectations for Bigos are:

- Establish a presence in the Merrimack Top-4 defensemen
- Continue to see ample time on the PP, scoring 7-14-20 over the season.

Taylor Chorney D Springfield/Edmonton AHL/NHL; 2009-10 stats: 32GP 4-9-13 14PIM, 42GP 0-3-3 12PIM

Oh boy. This one’s hard to pick. He’s got the most NHL seasoning among the blueline prospects, but he’s among the least ready for the NHL. I’m convinced there’s an NHL career in him, but he’s going to be a PP-specialist 6-7 guy, and he certainly won’t make his mark in Edmonton. The Oilers have brought in some veteran presence and depth for the AHL club, pushing Chorney mercifully farther down the NHL depth chart. I expect he sees a full season in the AHL unless injuries hit. He’s just not ready to defend in the NHL, and that’s kind of his job description. Controlled expectations for Chorney are:

- Learn to play defence, avoid the abysmal minus-column we’ve seen for the last two years.
- Be one of the premier PP quarterbacks in the AHL, scoring 40 points over a full season
- Push his way back to the top of the Oilers recall list when injuries hit

Brandon Davidson D Regina WHL; 2009/10 stats: 59GP 1-33-34 37PIM

A sixth-round pick from the most recent draft, Davidson is known more for how he came to be playing hockey than for what he does well. He’s going back to a Regina Pats team that, with all respect, will be in tight to avoid looking like last year’s Edmonton Oilers. Davidson is going to have to find another level if he hopes to get Regina into respectability. He’s unique in that he doesn’t have much of a track record, so last year’s impressive stats could either be a fluke or a start of nice things to come. Controlled expectations for Davidson are:

- Continue his development as a two-way defenseman, having one of the best +/- stats on the team and scoring around 40 points.

Troy Hesketh D Minnetonka HS USHS; 2009/10 stats: 24GP 2-15-17 47PIM stats link

I really don’t know what to think of Hesketh. When he was drafted, he was completely unheralded, but we liked the size package. A year after his draft, he hasn’t done much to impress me. He really shouldn’t be thought of as an offensive defender, but you’d expect any significant prospect to put up monster numbers against high-schoolers. He did show good defensively (his +37 was tied for 2nd best on the team), but he actually regressed in his points totals from the previous year. Not what we should like to see from a 3rd rounder. He’s playing for Fargo in the USHL this year, and has committed to the University of Wisconsin next season. Much like Kyle Bigos he’ll be starting his NCAA career at 20, not ideal. Controlled expectations for Hesketh are:

- Have a Jeff Petry-esque season in the USHL, emerging as one of the best defensemen in the league
- Be among his team’s top defensemen in +/-

Martin Marincin D SlovakiaU20 2009/10 stats: 35GP 2-4-6 71PIM stats link

I’m expecting big things from Marincin this year as he transitions to WHL hockey in Prince George. He’s got a good young team to play with, featuring a game-breaking forward in Brett Connolly and another high draft pick in Jesse Forsberg, so I’m expecting he will improve his offensive game while keeping his defensive awareness in check. For some reason, his 2008/09 stats were much better than his 09/10 were. Hopefully there was an underlying issue, and it wasn’t a regression in his offensive game. Controlled expectations for Marincin are:

- A full season of WHL hockey as a Top-4 defenseman
- Strong defensive play while allowing his offensive game to blossom, 35 points from the blueline
- Participate for Team Slovakia in the December U20s.

Johan Motin D Springfield AHL 2009/10 stats: 55GP 1-5-6 33PIM

Johan Motin didn’t have the greatest season in the AHL last year, but it’s important to remember that this was just his 19-year old season. He plays with the presence of a much older player, and I think he’ll be a strong option for the Oilers in the coming years. In coming over last year, Motin left the SEL where he’d played for the previous three seasons (ahem, that’s something similar to what Magnus Paajarvi did, just for comparison). He’s in the mix for the Barons this year, but will have to battle this year to earn a spot on a very veteran-rich blueline. Controlled expectations for Motin are:

- Play a full season of AHL hockey with improved defensive play
- Continue to put up just enough offense to remain relevant in today’s NHL

Jeff Petry D Michigan State NCAA 2009/10 stats: 38GP 4-25-29 26PIM

Petry, considered one of the shiniest gems in our stable of blueline prospects, had a strong bounce-back season with Michigan State. He emerged as a leader on his team, while developing into a shutdown presence and a powerplay quarterback, all in just his Junior season. After a late-season call-up, Petry showed well in the AHL and kept his status as a blue-chip prospect alive. With the expansion Barons this year, it’s really tough to tell where Petry stands on the depth-chart, but expect he’ll get the organizational “leg-up”. Controlled expectations for Petry are:

- A full season of AHL hockey working on his shutdown game
- A constant presence on Oklahoma’s PP, contributing 30 points (5G 25A)

Alex Plante D Springfield AHL 2009/10 stats: 49GP 2-7-9 122PIM

Plante’s stock rose faster than any of Springfield’s D last season. It was public knowledge that Plante was a work-in-progress kind of prospect before last season, but it looks like that project is nearing completion already. Plante spent the entire season in the AHL last year and took on tougher competition as the year went on. He stepped up when the coaches asked and showed more room to grow, earning a call-up when injuries hit hard. He’s a big body and loves to use his size to punish smaller players, and has some offensive upside from junior that has yet to establish itself. Injuries are a HUGE concern for Plante. Controlled expectations are:

- A healthy season in the AHL as one of the Barons top defensemen
- Push for time on the PP, scoring 20 points (3G 17A)
- Be one of the first defensive call-ups to the Oilers

Uh...It’s late. And I have to work at 5:30AM tomorrow morning. Goalies to follow tomorrow. I hope...

Controlled expectations: forward prospects

2010-09-19T22:39:00.004-05:00

Having completed my series of NHL controlled expectations, I thought it’d be a good idea to take on the rest of Edmonton’s prospect pool. We have a very diverse group of prospects in the system, and it’s important to not judge them against each other, but rather based on their unique career paths. It’s both impossible and illogical to compare the exploits of Magnus Paajarvi and Anton Lander even though they were on the same team. We can’t point to Lander’s stat lines and then to Paajarvi’s and say that Lander is not as likely to impact the roster at the NHL level. Anton’s defensive responsibility and leadership qualities are as important, perhaps moreso to this particular team than Magnus’ offensive wizardry.

But in order for us to say that our kids are progressing we have to set the bar somewhere, right? That’s where this guideline comes in. Keep in mind that this is only one person’s opinion, but it’s a start. With our three wunderkids already taken care of, I’ll continue with the rest of our forwards today. All stats are taken from www.hockeydb.com except those of Kristians Pelss and William Quist, which take from www.eliteprospects.com

*EDIT: Sonofabitch! I just learned how to hyperlink! That only took two years of reading comments. Damn!

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Cameron Abney RW Everett/Edmonton WHL; 2009/10 stats: 68GP 6-7-13 123PIM

Abney saw his goal total increase by a factor of 6 last year, but we shouldn’t be expecting a meteoric rise this year. We know what we’re going to get in the big man, and that’s fists. I was impressed by his skills in the Oilers rookie tournament, and think we might have a legitimate heavyweight prospect on our hands. The OilKings are still a developing team, so we shouldn’t expect that he’s going to be playing with the best linemates or surrounded by the best team. Controlled expectations for Abney are:

- Play a full season in the WHL, scoring in the range of 20 points.
- Cut down on bad penalties while becoming one of the most feared fighters in the WHL
- Improve skating in order to succeed at the next level

Phillippe Cornet LW Rouyn-Noranda QMJHL; 2009/10 stats: 65GP 28-49-77 32PIM

Cornet actually saw his points-per-game totals fall from last year. He’s a bit hard to project accurately because of this, it’s hard to tell if he’s already hit a wall or whether it was the team that had issues. Reports suggest he isn’t the most reliable two-way player (his +6 was among the worst on his team), so unless he has a career changing epiphany a’la Liam Reddox, we’re looking at an undersized, moderately offensively talented forward here. Controlled expectations for Cornet are:

- Play 40+ games in the AHL, scoring in the range of 20 points.
- Improve his two-way game, +/- within a reasonable range of -5

Drew Czerwonka LW Kootenay WHL; 2009/10 stats: 54GP 4-9-13 106PIM

Willy Wonka and his chocolate factory were picked up this past draft with little fanfare, and that’s a positive for the tough guy from Saskatchewan. Expectations are markedly lower for a 6th round pick than a comparable player-type in Cameron Abney (3rd round the previous year). At 166th overall, Drew is a longshot to make the show but that doesn’t mean it’s not possible. The Kootenay Ice look to be losing a lot of veterans this year, so either the team and Czerwonka take a step back in competition, or they look to Drew to be a team leader and offensive contributor. You know which one I’m betting on. Controlled expectations for Czerwonka are:

- Play a full season of WHL hockey while improving his all-around game
- Score in the range of 20 points with a +/- around -10

Robby Dee C Maine NCAA; 2009/10 stats: 33GP 13-12-25 32PIM

Robby had the kind of year that puts a prospect back on the map. The question is, can he build off this year or is it his high-water mark. Dee will return to Maine for his senior year where the Oilers hope that he proves last year was not a flash in the pan. He’s playing for his contract now, so you’ll expect him to be motivated. Injuries remain a very big concern for the adequately-sized centerman who would only add to the depth at C in the AHL. Controlled expectations for Dee are:

- A full, healthy season for Maine providing a veteran presence on the top-2 lines
- Play with enough passion to earn a contract from the Oilers
- Score at a level on par with last season’s totals

Curtis Hamilton LW Saskatoon WHL; 2009/10 stats: 26GP 7-9-16 6PIM

If Hamilton didn’t have bad luck last year, then he wouldn’t have had any luck at all. Enduring freak injuries one after the other hampered his games-played total, and you’d have to think that he wasn’t 100% healthy in the games he did suit up for. A healthy season is a must in order to sell the expenditure of a 2nd round draft pick to the fanbase. Saskatoon is a perennial Eastern Conference contender with some key pieces set to return to the club, meaning that if Hamilton remains healthy they should challenge once again. Controlled expectations for Hamilton are:

- A relatively healthy year (65 games) and a return of his offensive skills (25 goals, 60 points)
- An invite to Team Canada’s U20 camp would be a bonus
- Continued development of a two-way game to accompany his size, suitable for 3rd line NHL duty

Teemu Hartikainen C/W KalPa SM-Liiga; 2009/10 stats: 53GP 15-18-33 22PIM

The Finnish steamroller makes his way across the Atlantic for this year after completing his nationally required military service. He showed a nice increase in offensive output the 2008/09 campaign, made more impressive because he was serving in the military by day and playing hockey by night. His footspeed has been addressed and is now no longer thought of as a weakness, and his power game is a thing of beauty. I said during one of the Oilers rookie games that his low-post game reminds me a lot of Jaromir Jagr when he was at the peak of his game, and I stand by that. He’s very dominant on his feet and has the hands to turn heads in Oklahoma this year. Controlled expectations for Hartikainen are:

- Play a full season (70+ games) in the AHL, scoring 20 goals.
- Continued work on skating and defensive play, becoming a valuable two-way winger.

Kellen Jones LW Vernon BCHL; 2009/10 stats: 41GP 12-41-53 18PIM

Jones and his twin brother were both 20-year olds last year playing in a low-tier hockey league. Take these stats for what they’re worth, as they don’t imply there’s a lot to get excited about. Truthfully, I’m not expecting much from Jones as he transitions to NCAA hockey. I’m unsure where he’s attending and don’t have a lot of info on this player. Controlled expectations for Jones are:

- Become more recognized for playing hockey

Milan Kytnar C Saskatoon/Vancouver WHL; 2009/10 stats: 45GP 14-26-40 42PIM

Kytnar returned to the WHL this year as both an import and an overager, a lethal combination in Saskatoon, but turned his career around in Vancouver. Just as he was expected to contribute the previous season in Saskatoon, Kytnar was a consistent point producer and shutdown center for the Giants as they made another deep run into the playoffs. He’s not likely to bring much of that offensive game to the pro ranks, but a true shutdown center is always handy to have in the system. Controlled expectations for Kytnar are:

- Be a constant presence in Oklahoma’s lineup, contributing around 30 points
- Continue to excel in a shut-down role while improving faceoff percentages

Anton Lander C Timra SEL; 2009/10 stats: 49GP 7-9-16 14PIM

Stats don’t tell the whole story of Anton Lander. When he was drafted 40th overall in 2009 the words that ran from every scouting report were the same; two-way, defensive, leader. He’s the shut-down 3rd line C of the Oilers future. He may even be captain one day. But for now he returns to Timra where he will continue to develop his already above-average checking and two-way abilities. Let’s hope he scores some too. Controlled expectations for Lander are:

- Take on a leadership role (an A) for Timra, Captain Team Sweden’s U20 squad
- Establish himself as the 2nd line center for Timra, scoring in the neighbourhood of 20 points

Ryan Martindale C Ottawa OHL; 2009/10 stats: 61GP 19-41-60 37PIM

I haven’t much respect for Martindale’s supposed lack of interest from game to game, but if this kid ever gets his head fully into hockey he’ll be fun to watch. He impressed me in the rookie tournament, and I hope he can translate his strong showing into a career year with Ottawa. He’s returning to what looks like a re-building 67s team, as three of the top-5 scorers and three of their best defenders would figure to be moving on. It will fall to Martindale and Tyler Toffoli to pick up the slack offensively. I’m very worried about Martindale’s one-dimensional game, he was the owner of one of the worst +/- stats on the team, and that’s one area that further development is essential. Controlled expectation for Martindale are:

- Establish himself as the #1 center on the 67s, scoring at a point-per-game clip.
- Dedicate himself to becoming a better two-way player (as evidenced by an improved +/-)
- Eliminate “disinterested” and “uninspired” from his scouting report.

Linus Omark W Moscow KHL; 2009/10 stats: 56GP 20-16-36 34PIM

The little engine that could finally makes his way across the Atlantic, and is in tight to secure a roster spot at the NHL level due to the influx of more highly-touted rookies. An impressive training camp might secure him a roster spot, but he’s more likely to spend time in the AHL acclimatizing to the North American game. His game appears quite one-dimensional (the dreaded +/- stat again) but our scouting reports also say that he’s a pesky bugger to knock off the puck. We know he’s the most creative player in the organization since The Hockey Jesus (that’s Rob Schremp for those unfamiliar with the BofA glossary), but like Schremp taught us offensive ability gets your waived to Long Island PDQ. Controlled expectations for Linus Omark are:

- Strong performance in the AHL, scoring at or near a point per game
- At least one call-up to the big club where he does not embarrass himself like Taylor Chorney’s minus-column

Tyler Pitlick C Mankato NCAA; 2009/10 stats: 38GP 11-8-19 27PIM

Pitlick was the only teenager to play anywhere close to a full season for Mankato this season, but is transferring out of college life for the bus-tour of Western Canada. I’ve always seen this kind of direction as meaning he didn’t take well to the educational setting that University is supposed to be about, but I could be wrong here. Pitlick’s game is definitely better suited to the crash and bang of Dub hockey, he was very impressive in the Oilers rookie tournament for both his offensive ability and his physicality. Hockeydb doesn’t list +/- statistics for the NCAA as far as I can tell, so I’m not sure if he was playing in a sheltered role, or getting killed by everyone, or whatever. As a result, his two-way ability is still up in the air, but we’ll know soon enough based on who he’s thrown out against with the Medicine Hat Tigers. He’s going to a team that figures to be strong in the coming year (also featuring 2010 Oilers pick Tyler Bunz and 2010 first round sniper-in-the-making Emerson Etem), so my expectations might be a little high. Controlled expectations for Pitlick are:

- Assume the role of #1 center playing alongside Etem for a full season
- Dominate offensively, posting numbers similar to a 30-50-80 mark.
- Challenge for a spot on Team USA’s U-20 squad

Kristians Pelss LW Riga Juniors Belarus; 2009/10 stats: 46GP 6-3-9 28PIM

He’s coming to Edmonton in the WHL this year, so we’ll be able to get a much better read on this prospect in the coming months. There haven’t been many Latvians to play hockey at the NHL level so the odds are stacked against him, but then again those odds were even higher for Anze Kopitar or that Japanese goaltender the Kings employed a couple seasons ago (Fukufugi?), it can be done. Controlled expectations for Pelss are:
- Play a full season in the WHL
- Score a goal, get credit for an assist.

William Quist LW Nybro (Div1 Sweden); 2009/10 stats: 33GP 10-12-22 44PIM

I have no idea if he’s still Oilers property, but Willy is still apparently playing hockey and I’m as shocked as anyone. His point totals are nothing special, but his size (6’5”) certainly is. Controlled expectations for Quist are:

- To not fall as far off the prospect map as he did last year.

Toni Rajala RW Brandon WHL; 2009/10 stats: 60GP 26-37-63 24PIM

Rajala stats last year came on an absolutely stacked Wheaties team, so take that PPG with a grain of salt please. He also played part of the season through various injuries, so there’s that angle also. Any way you look at it, it’s hard to deduce whether Rajala’s season was a good one or not. He’s returning to Finland this year to complete his required military service, and has already started his season with Ilves of the SM-Liiga with one assist in two games (-2). I expect he’ll have a hard time this year due to his military requirements eating up his down-time, but will still be productive. Controlled expectations for Rajala are:

- Play a full season in the Finnish Elite League on Ilves’ top-two lines, scoring 15-20 goals.
- Manage his time effectively between hockey and military life as Hartikainen did last season
- Be a key piece of Finland’s U-20 team (he was on the top-line last year).

Chris VandeVelde C UND NCAA; 2009/10 stats: 42GP 16-25-41 22PIM

Last of the forwards (alphabetically speaking) is a late-blooming center with size and faceoff skills. He was a go-to guy in college hockey and played with very talented players on his wings, so it’s unlikely to think that the offensive game will follow him to the next level. What we’re getting in VandeVelde is a large body who knows how to exceed in defensive hockey. He’s also a whiz in the faceoff dot, a rarity among Edmonton Oilers in general the last few years. His special talent might even get him noticed by the NHL club before long. Controlled expectations for VandeVelde are:

- Play a full season in the AHL, scoring 30 points on the second/third lines.
- Continue to impress with faceoffs and defensive skills
- Earn a late-season call-up to the Oilers.

Forwards done, we look at the controlled expectations of the defensive crew and goalie corps in the next instalment.

Trading a star, getting a star (in the making) in return

2010-09-13T23:22:00.004-05:00

We’re jumping into the Bubbling-Under time machine today, as I hope to find a comparable scenario to aid in the Oilers’ current re-build. I’m of the opinion that with the youth movement in full swing, we should be strongly considering trading off our valuable veteran assets sometime soon. Those being Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky. But the question is, what are they worth on the open market? Fans, those of any team, have the uncanny ability to overvalue their own players’ realistic trade value. It’s just a fact of life. There’s no way either of these two elite forwards get traded for the next Sidney Crosby, so if you’re of the idea that they are maybe you should skip this post and, like the magic 8-ball often tells me, try again later. In this entry, we examine the trade of a superstar just entering his prime, for a prospect that would make any General Manager happy.

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The year is 1995. The New York Rangers were beginning defense of their first Cup title in 54 years. The Quebec Nordiques are no more while my beloved Winnipeg Jets are on life support. Coincidentally, they’ve got a Russian goaltender coming off an injury-marred season (go figure) and will soon depart to wander the desert for 40 years of obscurity and ownership issues.

Our superstar is coming off a similarly disappointing season, playing in only 46 games but eclipsing the point-per-game mark with 50 points. In his first eight years in the NHL, he’s tallied 51 goals twice and has never had a season where he didn’t score 20 goals. He is captain of his hockey club and has helped to deliver them their first (and only) Stanley Cup. But this is a poor Canadian team in a small-market, and they lack the funds to pay their superstar what he is rightfully worth. And so, he holds out for more money or a trade. Joe Nieuwendyk never plays another game for the Calgary Flames, but that doesn’t mean that he still can’t help the franchise that drafted him to succeed for years to come.

On December 19th of 1995, Nieuwendyk is traded to the Dallas Stars, for a player and a pick. Dallas is building towards becoming a Stanley Cup contender, and picking up a veteran superstar in Nieuwendyk is seen as a productive move. It eventually turns out to be one of the best moves in franchise history as he delivers them their first Stanley Cup four years later, with Nieuwendyk taking the 1999 Conn Smythe Trophy honours.

But that doesn’t mean that Dallas got the best of the trade. For in trading for Nieuwendyk, they had to give up one of the most respected hockey players in the current NHL. At the time of the trade, a young Jarome Arthur-Leigh Adekunle Tig Junior Elvis (seriously) Iginla was preparing to star for Team Canada’s U-20 team at the World Junior Championships. Drafted eleventh overall by Dallas in that summer’s NHL entry draft, Iginla was tearing the WHL a new one in his third season of junior hockey. He would go on to score 63 goals in 63 games, totalling an eye-popping 136 points. He would step straight into the NHL the following season, foregoing his final year of junior eligibility to score 50 points for the young Flames. Since then, Jarome Iginla has been Mr. Everything for the Flames organization. Serving as their captain, leading scorer and inspirational leader, Iginla took the Flames to within a disallowed goal of their second Stanley Cup win.

Truly, this is a trade that worked out marvellously for both organizations.

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So what should the Oilers be looking for to bring back the once-popular star for prospects trade? And more important, are our players worth blue-chip prospects?

Let’s start with the devil we know. Ales Hemsky is a sublime hockey player. On most nights he’s worth the price of admission all on his own. An effortless skater with impressive puck skills, elite level playmaking and an underrated wrist shot, Hemsky is a great offensive package. But it doesn’t end there as he is far from a one-dimensional hockey player. He has been coached well from the time he first entered the league that the defensive side of hockey is also of the utmost importance. Hemsky has demonstrated through the years that he is capable of playing tough opposition, which is a valuable commodity on the trading block. He has limited experience in the Stanley Cup playoffs as a direct result of Edmonton’s failure to surround him with talented players, with the exception of the perfect storm that was 2006. Ales Hemsky is worth a blue-chip prospect.

Dustin Penner shares Hemsky’s two-way game, but the similarities really end there. Dustin Penner is Paul Bunyan on skates, a big big man, with big big talent. When he’s on his game, the man from Winkler MB is unstoppable. He’s been favourably compared to Frank Mahovlich when he’s going as he has the speed to drive wide and take the puck to the net. A good shot and average playmaking ability are other qualities that make Penner a star player. Unlike Hemsky, Penner has a Stanley Cup on his resume from his time with the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. He’s sometimes called out for “lazy” or “uninspired” play, which could detract from his overall value in a trade, but I believe Dustin Penner is worth a blue-chip prospect from the right team.
So, that’s two very tradable assets that should garner a blue-chipper in return.

What should the Oilers be looking for?

In my opinion, we should be looking at players 18-21 years old (drafted 2008 or later), likely in the first round or possess first round talent. Preferably not a winger, as we have a couple of our own that are developing at this time. Defence prospects are where I’d look to first, but would probably not turn down a certain center that I’ll get to later. Defence is the area that we are really lacking a stud prospect, and this is the perfect time to address the deficiency. While names like Alex Plante, Jeff Petry and Martin Marincin may have Top-4 upside, the organization really lacks that #1 blueliner-in-the-making that would eventually put our team over the top. It can’t be just any old rearguard, but it needs to be said that we aren’t getting a Doughty/Hedman-type here. I’ve identified a couple of eligible prospects from teams that could be looking at adding an impact player at the trade deadline this year. Because as much as I would like to have Travis Hamonic or Calvin de-Haan, I think someone would be fired on Long Island for agreeing to said trade.

Option 1: Jared Cowan, Ottawa Senators.
Cowan was considered by some to be Victor Hedman’s equal heading into the 2009 NHL draft, before suffering a serious knee injury. But even with that dark spectre hanging over him, the Ottawa Senators just couldn’t let him fall out of the draft’s Top-10, selecting him 9th overall. While seen as more of a shut-down type without much offensive flair, he is a dearly-needed commodity for the Oilers. We haven’t had a player like this since Jason Smith left the fold for greener pastures. He’d fit right in with the young core of players the Oilers currently employ and provide that steadying presence in his own zone while being enough of a puck-mover to find Hall or Paajarvi quickly flying the zone.

Option 2: John Carlson, Washington Capitals.
Drafted 27th overall in 2008, Carlson has already seen time this year with the Capitals and has proven himself a fast learner. Another big body defenseman, Carlson has the ability to play many styles of defense. He beat out another highly touted American defender (more on him later) for a spot on last year’s U-20 team, and broke every Canadian’s heart by scoring the OT golden goal with his rush up the ice and blindly picking his corner. He’s got offensive tools and shut-down capability, a combination that would surely be a welcome addition to the Oilers prospect depth chart. I’m unsure if Washington would be more willing to part with him or 2007 5th overall pick Karl Alzner, but if given the choice, Carlson would be my preference.

Option 3: Nick Leddy, Chicago Blackhawks.
Originally drafted 16th overall by Minnesota in 2009, Leddy was the key cog that sent Cam Barker to the Wild. I don’t have much insight to supply on Leddy other than him being a high draft pick, so take it away hockeysfutures (http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/nick_leddy):

“While many view Leddy as an offensive defenseman, he could potentially blossom into more of a two-way defenseman. His play is equally strong at both ends of the ice. Leddy combines superb offensive prowess with conscientious and responsible defensive zone play. He does an excellent job of taking away time and space from the opposition, and can also create it for both himself and his teammates.
One attribute that makes it all possible is his outstanding skating ability. Leddy is an agile skater with good speed and smoothness in his strides. This can particularly be seen in his transitioning and rushes up the ice. This past summer, Leddy added 15 pounds to his 5'11 frame. The result has enhanced his game tremendously, especially on the physical side”

Sounds like a pretty solid package, albeit in a much smaller form than Cowan or Carlson.

Option 4: John Moore, Columbus Blue Jackets.
John Moore is a player I wanted pretty badly, and was pleading for the Oilers to move up into the first round to take last year. Taken 21st overall, Moore is a sublime skater that combines size with strong positional play and offensive upside. In short, the complete package. Moore would be the perfect match for the Oilers run-and-gun offensive style that hasn’t been seen often enough in these parts for a number of years. With a smooth-skating defenseman a’la Paul Coffey, the new Oilers would have no trouble finding the back of the net.

Option 5: Brandon Gormley, Phoenix Coyotes.
That Brandon Gormley fell all the way to 13th overall in this year’s entry draft is absolutely criminal. Some GMs (specifically the one in his ivory tower overlooking Madison Square Garden) should lose their jobs over this one. Gormley combines all the abilities you want in a defenseman; mobility, size, smarts, defensive awareness and offensive creativity, into a single entity who plays the game with cyborg-like effectiveness. With the Coyotes opening their doors to their top defensive prospect Oliver Ekman-Larson this year, there’s a chance they might be willing to part with Gormley. He’s #1 on my defensive wishlist.

So there we have it, five defensive prospects of interest for the Edmonton Oilers this coming season. I’d be happy with any one of them, but if I had to pick my ideal return for Hemsky or Penner, it’d have to be...

Cody Hodgson, Vancouver Canucks.
It goes a little against the grain to covet another forward, particularly an oft-injured one, especially one who plays for a divisional rival, but to hell with it. Hodgson is everything this team needs to find a zen-like balance up front. He’s only 20 and already he looks like he could be an 80-100 point, defensively responsible center similar to a Joe Sakic or Steve Yzerman. He’s just that good. There are reports he’s not happy with Vancouver’s management for how they’ve handled his injury problems, so maybe there’s a deal to be had here. He’s also played internationally with Jordan Eberle and showed great chemistry with him, so that’s another plus.

Call me crazy all you want, I think Hodgson could be Edmonton’s version of Jarome Iginla. It’s also entirely possible that an addition of any of the five defenseman prospects could prove an equally valuable return for Hemsky or Penner. What I know for sure is that the Edmonton Oilers prospect pipeline could use another infusion of talent, and we have the assets to make it worthwhile to a contending team.

For the right price.

Controlled Expectations: Jordan Eberle

2010-09-09T22:41:00.003-05:00

Of the three uber prospects set to make their Oilers debuts this year, Jordan Eberle may be our best shot at the Calder Trophy, says one astute magazine editor.

...

With all apologies to THN, I think they’re completely out to lunch here. Jordan Eberle may be a hockey hero in most of Canada, but his expectations need to be seriously curtailed or this kid’s in for one hell of a backlash from Oilerdom.

Desjardins’ NHLe: 22-24-46
Lowetide RE: 12-17-29
THN: 25-34-59

If Sesame Street taught me just one thing as a developing child, it's that “One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just doesn’t belong....”

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That’s quite a remarkable spread in point totals among three expert opinions. Honestly, I don’t know how THN arrived at this number, but let’s for argument’s sake try and make a case for Eberle’s Calder-winning season. He’s going to have to come up rolling sevens in a couple of areas, but some are easily obtained given his position.

The next Canadian hockey hero™ comes to the Oilers organization in what could be a perfect storm, having little competition for a spot as the #2RW right out of the gates. If we all assume (correctly) that Ales Hemsky is this team’s #1RW, then it would appear that Eberle would be battling only Gilbert Brule for the second spot on the port-side. Brule can also play center and, at this point, can play it much better than the other option for the #3 slot (Andrew Cogliano), so very well might end up there. Leaving Eberle with virtually no competition for his roster spot. Not the greatest decision by upper management IMO as I feel that each rookie on this team should have to play their way on to the team. It’s what all the smartly run teams do after all. You wouldn’t see Detroit handing a 20-year old a roster spot. Oh no. They’ll bury him in the minors for two years (partly due to cap restrictions, mind), bringing him up to light up the playoffs, to have their hand forced in year three because he’s just too damn good to be left off the NHL roster.

...In case anyone missed it, that’s the career path of Darren Helm. Forgive me my Manitoba homerism, but it’s a development path I wish was followed more regularly.

Ahem... Eberle. Right.

Getting back on topic, not only is Eberle the right positional player coming into the organization at the right time, he’s also the right player-type, and that may go a long way to seeing him succeed. I think it’s safe to say all of Canada has “seen this kid good”, to coin a Lowetide. His knack for scoring big-goals, Sidney-Crosby-big-goals, was well documented the last two Christmases. The 50 he potted for an absolutely abysmal Regina Pats team last year is also nothing to laugh at. Fact is, the Oilers need all the goal scorers they can get, and Eberle has that sneaky talent to go un-noticed in the offensive zone and find the soft areas where you just know a player of Gagner’s cerebral talents is going to find him. If he can show that he’s more than just a junior-level scorer he might well pot THN’s expected 25 goals this season on pure talent alone.

Also to his credit, we can pretty safely scratch the nagging “let’s see how he handles a man’s game” off our list of concerns. Point-per game as an 18-year old, and follow that up by blowing past that mark as a 19-year old has me eating my previous words. This kid doesn’t have anything left to prove at the AHL level.

Some concerns however, are still real and waiting until the NHL season starts. Among them are his size, footspeed, and the dreaded “London Knights Correction Factor”.

For all that his legacy to date is, Eberle remains 5’10”, undersized for the NHL. It’s been overcome before, Martin St. Louis fans are quick to point out to anyone who looks their way, let alone feigns interest. But for every St. Louis, there are those like Nigel Dawes, Wacey Rabbit, Colten Yellowhorn, et cetera. Sublime junior talents with small statures all, yet they don’t exactly remind me of an NHL star. Make no bones about it; Eberle will not be able to get by as easily in the NHL because of his lack of size. In addition he lacks another talent that makes St. Louis one of the most memorable “minute men” of NHL history, that final gear. It’s never mentioned that skating is a weakness for Eberle, but like Gagner it ain’t a strength either. He won’t be able to catch NHL defenseman flat-footed, and that’s been a hallmark of St. Louis throughout his career.

Eberle might not be affected by the LKCF in the traditional sense, but it’s a legitimate concern of mine anyway. There’s no evidence to suggest Eberle was fed large amount of minutes because we lack the necessary data to track this, so this is all speculation. Eberle was a big fish (think Julianna and the Medicine Fish) in a small pond during his junior career, and his point totals might have been inflated as a result. Even-strength, PP, PK, Eberle did it all. With only the emerging Jordan Weal to provide complimentary offense, this team was geared around Eberle, I imagine it was kind of like watching the Atlanta Thrashers play Kovalchuk. So with no other options, there’s little doubt in my mind that Regina’s coach would throw Eberle over the boards as often as he could in order to salvage some wins the past couple seasons. I seriously question his point totals as a result, and wouldn’t be surprised if the former junior superstar comes crashing back to earth this year.

So with all that said, what do I think is a respectable, controlled set of expectations for Jordan Eberle? I had to re-think this since my post about where to slot the kids about a month ago. Given the expectation that Eberle will be the de-facto #2RW on this team, I have to defer closer to Desjardins’ estimate when it comes to point totals than Lowetide’s RE. Special teams play will be hard to come by for Eberle this year I believe, due to some Czech dude hogging all the ice time. I keed. Anyways, here’s what I think is a reasonable set of expectations for Eberle this year:

-Play in 70 games, posting 20-18-38
- +/- somewhere in the region of -15
-Consistent effort all season long while maintaining his position on the RW depth chart
-Establish himself as a mainstay on the #2PP unit

Forcing coach Renney to scale back on Hemsky’s stranglehold on the #1PP would be considered exceeding expectations, as would any sign of a developing two-way game.

Controlled Expectations: Magnus Paajarvi

2010-09-05T23:57:00.004-05:00

Next up in my segment of Controlled Expectations is the player I’m most excited about for this upcoming season.

Desjardins’ NHLe: 16-22-38
Lowetide RE: 12-18-30
THN: 13-19-32

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At 6’1” and nearing 200lbs, Magnus Paajarvi-(Svensson?) is the most physically mature of the impact rookies vying for a spot on this year’s Edmonton Oilers roster. His combination of size and speed make him a very attractive package. Indeed, he was one of the fastest skaters in the 2009 draft class and if not for the “Fall for Hall” this year, we’d be looking at him as the de-facto #1 prospect in the organization.

Fast forward one calendar year, and I’m not exactly forecasting a sunny-day rookie season for Magnum P.I. Unfortunately, I’m of the belief he gets the shaft this year when the line combinations are drawn up, and this will have serious negative impact on his point totals.

In order to gain perspective on my position, let’s list the available wingers for this year’s Edmonton Oilers, sorted by position as per THN’s fantasy guide:

LW: Penner, Hall, Paajarvi, Omark, Jacques, Jones, Giroux
RW: Hemsky, Eberle, Stortini

Now, this isn’t exactly how the wingers are being portrayed in the magazine of record. THN somehow missed the fact that they’ve listed Paajarvi as a LW and #3 on their Oilers Top-10 prospects list located immediately beside their proposed depth chart, preferring to slot him as the #3 RW. But let’s pretend we didn’t see that, shall we? Shoddy research is sometimes a hallmark of deadlines, so we’ll forgive them their folly. The reality I want to point out still shines clear. There’s a crazy log-jam of talent at the LW position on this hockey club, and Paajarvi’s the third-best available talent within that dogpile. What’s unfortunate here is that means he’s likely going to be this year’s Andrew Cogliano. Talent level way above the garbage you have to drag around, and looking for all the world like Edmonton’s next scapegoat. It really is a shame.

This is the main reason why I’ve previously stated that Paajarvi would be best served playing his 19-year old year in Sweden, but I don’t want to rehash old literature (http://bubbling-under.blogspot.com/2010/07/forward-depth-charts-and-what-to-do.html). He might be ready for the NHL, but we don’t have a place for him to play comfortably, IMO. If he’s not playing with similar offensive talents, I believe we’re not utilizing him to his potential. I wasn’t a fan of sticking Hemsky on the 4th line when he began his career, and I won’t be changing my mind about this type of development anytime soon. Development of Top-6 talent should be the purview of minor-pro teams until they’re ready to assume Top-6 roles on the NHL team. Now, with that said, I fully understand that injuries happen and the likelihood of Paajarvi playing Top-6 minutes in the NHL this year is remarkably high due to the voodoo up in the rafters of Rexall (seriously, how else do you explain the freakishly large number of man games lost to injury the past three seasons?), but should we realistically be burning a year of his entry-level contract to sell tickets this year? Hell no. That’s what Hall’s for. We have heard all along from Tambellini that we don’t want to rush our prospects. For examples of this logic, see the extensive list of interviews we’ve had on the subject of Eberle, Jordan. Stick to the 5-year plan guys.

Getting back on topic, we’re here talking about what kind of things we should realistically expect from Magnus Paajarvi for this coming season. I’ll assume (grudgingly) that Paajarvi makes the team out of TC and remains on the roster for the season’s duration.

Like the post regarding Hall, both linemates and special-teams ice-time will play a major role in determining Paajarvi’s final point totals for the season. As stated earlier, Paajarvi would figure to line up as the #3 LW this year. Depending on how Renney decides to run his bench, this means he’ll either be part of a checking line, centered by Horcoff, or a second soft-minute line likely centered by Brule or Cogliano. His RW is completely up in the air at this point, but suffice to say if he’s playing with Stortini for any length of time, he’s not going to be putting up big numbers.

The second factor, his involvement in special teams could be where Paajarvi makes hay this year. Given the options placed at Renney’s feet, Paajarvi seems to be a prime candidate for both PP and PK duties this year. His speed coming off the wing would figure to be an asset on the powerplay in gaining the zone, and while his scouting reports don’t leave me exactly enamoured with his offensive abilities, I think he could do a better job than what we were putting out there last year on the second unit (have Nilsson or O’Sullivan even found NHL employment yet?). His size could also be effective in front of the net on the second PP unit as well, though I haven’t seen anything to suggest that’s where he’s played on the PP before. Penalty-kill would seem to marry well with Paajarvi’s unique talents. He’s got the speed to cover the point. A documented background as a defenseman would also serve his defensive awareness and positioning well. He’s also long enough that his stick would easily get into most shooting lanes.

So what exactly should we expect from Paajarvi this season, especially if he’s not going to be part of a scoring line? That’s where I really start to get curious about what this youngster can bring to our team. He’s shown to be incredibly capable of playing a man’s game, as evidenced by playing in the SEL (a very tough Euro league) since he was freaking 15, and his recent performance for his national team at the World Hockey Championships where he was named to the All-Star team. Whereas Hall and Eberle are coming in as fresh-faced kids, I think we’ll see Paajarvi come in and perform like a veteran by comparison. I expect we’ll see a much more complete game from the smooth skating Swede, and he won’t be shying away from any of the dangerous areas in NHL rinks. He’s more physically mature than Eberle and Hall and though I believe he might have some initial trouble adjusting to the more physical style of mens hockey in North America, it’ll all be sorted out before the season ends.

However, due to his position on the depth chart, I think expectations should be curtailed to avoid disappointment. This year, I’d like to see Paajarvi:

-Prove he belongs in the NHL as a 19-year old (no “loans” to Sweden’s WJC team)
-Firmly establish himself on the #2PP unit and an option for the PK
-Play in 65 games, scoring 10-15-25 with a +/- in the ballpark of -5

Pushing for time in the Top-6 this year will be considered a real accomplishment for the budding star winger.

Controlled Expectations: Taylor Hall

2010-08-31T14:05:00.003-05:00

This is the first instalment of what I like to call “controlled expectations” for our Edmonton Oilers prospects. In saying this, I hope to provide a reasonable framework for each documented player to meet my expectations for this year. I’ll be calling on previously written expectations available both online and in print media to compare and contrast my thinking. As usual, Lowetide provides the gold standard in NHLer “Reasonable Expectations”, but I’ll also be comparing and contrasting those of THN’s annual Fantasy Projections which hit stores a couple weeks ago.

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Taylor Hall is an eighteen year old “man”. I want to stress that he will be an elite hockey player (barring injuries, *knocks on wood*) during his career, but it won’t be the case yet. This is not Alex Ovechkin folks. He might give us flashes of the Great 8 with his powerful skating and physical play, but I haven’t seen the off-the-charts offensive instincts that the Russian displays.

Desjardins’ NHLe: 17-29-46
Lowetide RE: 20-20-40
THN: 22-31-53

As shown by these other projections, the rookie season of Taylor Hall could go a number of ways, and it depends on a couple of factors.

Ice time: Such a statistic is not measured in junior hockey, but it would be wise to assume that due to the strength of his junior team, we should not subject Hall to the “London Knights Correction Factor”. If he were the only offensive weapon on his team (like Seguin), I would have expected his counting numbers to be inflated due to increased ice-time. As it is, we’re left wondering if Hall’s point total could have been even higher if he were a power-play minute hog.

If you’re not familiar with Desjardins NHLe, it is a wonderful tool to predict offensive production from one league to another. Hall’s CHL point total is run through a correction factor and averaged out over an 82-game schedule to provide a comparison metric with a high probability of accuracy.

In Edmonton, as in Windsor, he won’t be the feature forward. This makes Hall’s NHLe prediction seem plausible as he’ll likely be playing behind Dustin Penner, both at even strength and on the powerplay. It’s almost a given that he’ll be given every opportunity to look good and be given plenty of ice-time by the organization. In fact, I won’t be surprised if by the end of the year Hall will be atop the Oilers’ all-time rookie minutes list LT puts out every year.

There’s a chance he could find his way onto the PK every once in a while, given that there isn’t anyone else established on that depth chart behind Horcoff, Penner and Fraser. PK time isn’t exactly conductive to scoring and any prolonged time on the PK unit is likely to decrease his counting numbers.

Linemates: If Hall for some reason doesn’t get downplayed on ice-time, he’ll likely see his point totals decrease because of his projected linemates. One day I hope to break down Hall’s junior linemates to get a feel for his QualTEAM, but I’m certain it was fairly good. I don’t believe this will be the case in Edmonton if the Oilers are committed to putting their rookies in a position to succeed. If they want to bring Hall et al. along slowly, they’re going to have to run Horpensky out against the toughs night in and night out. Hall, therefore, will likely line up as the 2LW. No offense to Gagner, Cogliano, Brule or whoever else mans the 2-line, but if Hall’s not playing with Hemsky, he won’t have the best QualTEAM. Expect his rookie point totals to be deflated slightly because of this.

Of course, these are just two of myriad reasons Hall’s point totals could be affected. But they are the two of immediate concern to me. We must also consider injury, slumps and overall adjustment to the NHL in his portfolio. He’s also going to be pushed for ice-time by the other older rookies. There’s only so much time to go around, and if Hall’s slumping his development might be better served by watching Hemsky and Penner from the press-box for a couple of games.

With all respect to LT, I’d be a little cautious when projecting him as a “strong Calder candidate”, as there hasn’t been a Calder Trophy winner in his post-draft season since Sergei Samsonov in the 1997-98 season. To me, that’s heaping a little too much expectation on his shoulders, even if all of his stars align.

THN’s projection is high, in my opinion, and they seem to be of the belief that Hall will get the cherry minutes on the powerplay right off the bat. I believe that those minutes should not be his by right, but earned through productivity at even strength. He won’t out-produce Hemsky, Penner, Gagner or even Horcoff initially, so it stands to reason that if the team wants to remain competitive (read: win every 4 games or so), Hall should be battling the Brule/Cogliano/other rookies pack for second-line PP duty.

In short, Taylor Hall’s season is far from predictable. Controlling my expectations somewhat, by the end of the year I’d like to see him;

- Firmly establish himself as the #2 LW on the Oilers
- Push for playing time on the #1 PP unit
- Put forth a consistent effort every night, avoiding prolonged slumps
- Play in 65 games, scoring 20-16-36 with a +/- greater than -10

Anything else that we see from our budding superstar, like a Calder nomination, PK ability or a developing two-way game, should be considered as exceeding expectations for this season.

Rookies

2010-08-24T10:34:00.004-05:00

I’m going to take a page out of the tome of BDHS here and take you on a little story. Or what I can remember of said story after consuming as much beer as I did this past weekend.

Every year at about this time, our group of friends has had enough of the city life and migrate out to the Ontario wilderness for a weekend. It’s been going on for the last four years for yours truly, and even longer for some of the more grizzled veterans in our group. There are new additions each year and like me four years ago, some make the grade and become established members of tent-fest. For every one that makes it however, there are usually a few who don’t get past that first year.

I was once such a rookie. Sam Gagner if you will. I had some very good talents (like a bitchin axe for wood chopping) and a projectable frame, but that first year, I was in over my head. The camping experience with friends is a lot different than my previous camping sorties with family. Now everything is not done for me, I have to survive on my own wits and I struggled that first year. Where others in the group were wrapping up roasts in tin foil and slow cooking for hours, I had hotdogs. I ran out of beer and had to journey to the local LCBO to fill up on what I thought would be good local beers I hadn’t heard of (Labatt’s Black Ice and OV...dumbass). I was a wreck two days into that weekend, but I perservered. Three years from that first trip, I’ve established myself on the camping roster as a go-to producer who brings all the necessary tools to ensure a smooth weekend. I still don’t have to do the heavy lifting, but I step in to provide complimentary scoring.

Twenty-one of us made the trek this year to Sioux Narrows and their beautiful group site looking out on Lake of the Woods. This isn’t camping in the sense that we’re roughing it, far from it. Roughing it at a place like this means that you have to walk two minutes to get to the showers, or that the guy who brings us ice hasn’t shown up in a couple of hours so our beer coolers are only about half-full.

But we’re a hardened group. We can handle such stresses with the grace that only veterans can accomplish. This is because we are prepared. We know from past experiences what to bring, how to react in times of crisis, and when a cause is lost.

Which brings me to this year’s star rookie. He’s been a member of our group for the last four years, but this is the first year he’s been able to join us. He’s a great guy and brings a lot to the table in terms of raw talent and potential, but this year you could tell he wasn’t quite ready for the camping experience. He ran out of ice. Then ran out of beer. Then there was no more bacon (a cardinal sin among this group). The only cooking implement he brought was a kitchen frying pan. In short, he was drowning in the deep end he was unceremoniously thrown into to see if he could float.

Us veterans tried to help him along wherever possible, adding to his meagre provisions (only we could take his pantry and turn it into a meal of “breaded fire-roasted chicken breast with alphaghetti demi-glace accompanied with buttered pan-seared mushrooms”), or teaching him how to pitch a tent in an area that wouldn’t be littered with rocks. He’ll take what he learned from this trip and come back stronger and better prepared next year. We’ve got a lot of faith in this rookie.

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This year’s version of Edmonton Oiler rookies are a lot like my buddy here. We all know Taylor Hall has sublime talents, and he’s got one hell of a frying pan, but will he know when to cover the pinching defenseman? Magnus Paajarvi’s got the most electrifying speed we’ve seen since Andrew Cogliano’s rookie season, but will he be able to find the trailing man on a 3-on-2 rush towards his goal? Jordan Eberle can chop wood offensively, but will his skating hinder his ability at the next level? Will Linus Omark be able to reach high enough to tie the rain tarp to the tall trees?

My point is this; we know our rookies have all-world talents, but they’re still unproven. Like my friends and camping, some of these young men will meet our expectations this year and come back better prepared for next year. Others will have their dreams of being a star in the NHL dashed faster than a burnt marshmallow. They still might be serviceable players, but they won’t be counted on to drive the trailer the way one of these men eventually will.

We need to temper out expectations, because otherwise we’re going to be in for a world of disappointment come April. The veterans on this team are going to have to do a hell of a job mentoring the rookies, and I hope they’re up to the task. We initiated about 5 rookies into our annual trip this year and it looks like one will rise above the rest while the others may not get a second season to prove themselves. Though the bathing suit on one well-proportioned rookie may earn her multiple second chances – think similar to how JF Jacques keeps getting more time on the NHL roster.

The success of the Edmonton Oilers future isn’t on the rookies this year. It falls to those who have been around before to lead the way. Potential takes a flying leap once our prospects start playing for keeps, and if Horcoff and company can’t show our next generation the way, we’re in for another decade of mediocrity. Just keep that in mind when you think Taylor Hall is going to single-handedly deliver us a playoff berth.

So begins a series of posts I’m planning to write over the next couple of weeks on my reasonable expectations for the newest bunch of Edmonton Oiler hopefuls.

Forward depth charts and what to do with the kids

2010-07-30T22:31:00.003-05:00

It’s been hard trying to find worthwhile material for this non-Edmontonian to cover in the past month. Without having the kind of access to the Prospects Development Camp that others like Coming Down the Pipe or Copper and Blue are privy to, I decided to leave that job up to them. And boy did they produce, great job men. You’re filling my apparent niche so well I’ve been able to enjoy much more time outside this summer.

But I’ve gotten restless, and it appears that my writing skills have deteriorated because I’ve tried to finish this sentence about four times already. In the words of Lisa Simpson “I’m losing my perspicacity!”

With that in mind, I’ve decided tonight to take a look at the organizational depth charts (in my opinion) and try and find a place for our three wunderkind winger prospects to play this year in order to maximize both their potential and their contract situation. Please keep in mind that these are projected depth charts at this time, and I’m taking a couple of liberties in placing some NHLers in potentially un-traditional spots.

Center: Horcoff, Gagner, Cogliano, Fraser, Moran, Vande Velde, O’Marra

I don’t want to place an 18-year old Taylor Hall on the C-depth chart because, in my opinion, he shouldn’t be thought of as a center. If you drafted him as a winger, then use him as a winger. If you wanted the centerman, then you should have taken Seguin.

Left Wing: Penner, Hall, Paajarvi, Jones, Jacques, Giroux, Reddox, Cornet

Two of our prospects of interest here, I’ve slotted them two and three on the depth chart, but as I see it there’s only one spot between the two of them to fight for as they should both be playing Top-6 minutes to be successful. Penner should have the 1LW spot locked up in ink. I’d rather have Jones and Jacques (maybe Reddox) fill out the bottom-6 roles than Hall or Paajarvi. Actually, I’d rather have a veteran winger that would effectively pump Jones to the 4th line and Jacques to the press box but that has yet to materialize. Neither Hall or Paajarvi have the makings of third liners, so I’d rather not see one of them plodding along like Cogliano was forced into doing last year.

In a normal situation, I’d say let the players make the decision in training camp with their play being the deciding factor, but there are a couple of conditions that make such a decision a little tricky.

- Taylor Hall is the future of this franchise, and there will be outrage among the Oiler faithful if he does not make the team coming out of camp.

- If Hall does not make the Oilers, he has to go back to Windsor. He’s shown in previous seasons that he has outgrown the OHL and rightly so. Because he can’t go to the AHL (in one of the most unsuccessful contractual legalities in prospect history), he needs to be in the NHL to get better as a prospect.

- Magnus Paajarvi can return to Timra (SEL) without the Oilers losing a year on his entry-level contract, or he can play in the AHL without losing a year on his contract.

- However, if Paajarvi plays more than 40 games in the NHL, the Oilers lose a year on his 7-year exclusive negotiating rights clock.
For these reasons, I go with Taylor Hall as the #2 LW. I send Paajarvi back to Sweden for the season for a couple of reasons.

- He won’t be the #1LW in Oklahoma as that should belong to Alex Giroux if he’s not playing NHL hockey. He certainly has a shot at playing in the NHL and deserves that opportunity after ripping the AHL apart for the last two seasons. You can bet that he’ll be the first call-up to the big club if Penner or Hall succumb to injury.

- Paajarvi has the ability to return to Timra as the de-facto #1 LW, continue to play against men, and be comfortable in his home country for another season.

- In returning to Sweden to play, Paajarvi has the opportunity to play for the U20 team once again. Some prefer to underrate the importance of this tournament due to the small number of games played, but I like to see prospects compete against their own age group to see how far ahead or behind their cohorts they are. Last year it showed us that Taylor Hall was indeed the real deal and that Nazem Kadri will make Brian Burke look a fool in the coming years.

Magnus might be a little peeved at the demotion, but I think in the long run he is better served being a go-to guy in Sweden than playing third-fiddle on a bad team.

Right Wing: Hemsky, Brule, Eberle, Omark, Stortini, MacIntyre, Ondrus, Stewart, Hartikainen

For much the same reasoning that put Paajarvi back in Sweden, I think it’s best for Jordan Eberle to be kept away from this team until either injuries force Management’s hand or he blows the doors off the AHL. Jordan Eberle will never be mistaken for a third-line NHLer so why bother putting him there in his first NHL season when there are other options? Hemsky is the bona-fide 1RW, so Eberle will have to outplay Brule in training camp to get his shot at the Top-6. I like Brule better at this point because he provides more intangibles to the NHL team such as hitting and NHL experience. Both are smaller players with high-end offensive skills but Eberle’s two-way contract might play against him here. I like Stortini and Omark to take the 3 and 4 spots; Stortini because he’s done it before and Omark because he’s played against men for the last three years in Europe and likely has less development less. He won’t necessarily need Top-6 minutes to develop any further.
In going to Oklahoma, Eberle will be fighting it out (maybe literally) with Ben Ondrus for the 1RW spot with the loser of that battle likely to be given the 2RW spot.

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Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
Hall-Gagner-Brule
Jones-Cogliano-Stortini
Jacques-Fraser-Omark
MacIntyre

*Note: I’ve only placed thirteen forwards on the roster for a reason. I’m predicting a three-headed goalie nightmare (Version 2.0) again this year, until the Khabibulin issue is sorted.

So there’s my take on what to do with our impact wingers. You’d think that for a rebuilding year I’d have preferred to put all our youngsters on the team to try and gel together as quickly as possible, but I just can’t do it. I’d rather have our prospects placed in positions to succeed, and the best way to do that is to keep them away from the Oilers for as long as possible.

2010 Draft through the rear-view

2010-07-02T18:49:00.002-05:00

It’s been a while since the 2010 Entry Draft took place, and I’ve had the time to properly calm down after a couple of “interesting” picks by our scouting staff. Here’s a quick look at how this blogger thought our draft days went.

Round 1: Taylor Hall

An absolute no-brainer pick here. Taylor Hall is the most NHL-ready prospect this year and his tendencies for winning make him perfect for the Oilers in three years. He’ll play in the NHL next year and has the chance at being a Calder trophy candidate if he’s placed in an ideal situation. Personally, I’d like to see him start the year in the bottom-6 and make him earn the cherry minutes lining up alongside Hemsky or Gagner, but I know it’s not going to happen. He’ll be a mainstay on the Oilers top line for the next half-decade at the very least. A franchise changing player.

Round 2: Tyler Pitlick, Martin Marincin, Curtis Hamilton

The Oilers did well here to pick up Pitlick with the 31st pick. They were able to get a player with first-round pedigree in the early 2nd round. A big-bodied centerman with some underlying offensive upside who is going to the WHL next year should see his point totals take a massive leap forward, hopefully without any sacrifice to his already well-developed defensive game. I’m a little concerned that he’s spurning the NCAA program so soon to play Major Junior. Other examples of this from Gare Joyce’s “Future Greats and Heartbreaks” like Phil Kessel and Peter Mueller indicate that we should be concerned about his intellect and academic drive. In my opinion, it’s cause for concern. If he can’t commit to an education, should we also question his passion for hockey when the going gets tough? Regardless, he’s got second-line potential if he lives up to expectations.

Marincin is often overhyped as the next coming of Zdeno Chara because of his passport and gargantuan size. He’s going to be continuing those comparisons with the Prince George Cougars (WHL team of Zdeno Chara) next season, as the Oilers draft pick was recently taken first overall in the CHL’s import draft. The Oilers traded a very talented and very disgruntled prospect in Riley Nash to get him, so this pick is likely to be scrutinized more so than any other pick in the 2010 draft. He’s still a work-in progress, but he’s a very high-end prospect that the Oilers should be very happy to have obtained. At first glance, he’s got Top-4 talent written all over him, and that’s just the low-point of his potential. The Oilers may have finally found a stud two-way defenseman prospect.

Curtis Hamilton is a gamble that could either be a home-run or called third strike. He’s a walking injury at this point but has shown glimpses of high-end skill when healthy. He’s a big body and strong skater, but I can’t count on him as a blue-chipper until I see a full healthy season out of him. Potential to be a top line talent with a physical presence, or he could flame out early in his career due to injuries.

The second round of the draft turned out very well for the Oilers, but could have gone even better if they had waited two spots to select Martin Marincin. Were I GM for a day 46th would have gone to Ottawa 67s Tyler Toffoli, followed by Marincin with the 48th. There was a chance they had planned to take Toffoli with the 48th, but got scooped by LA when they traded up. Hopefully Hamilton is able to prove me wrong and pans out at least to the point where he’s an effective 3rd liner.

Round 3: Ryan Martindale

Here’s where I started to get a migrane. I don’t like the pick. At all. Didn’t like it at the time, and it’s not changing any time soon. I’m sure Ryan Martindale’s a decent enough guy and might be a half-decent hockey player, but what makes the pick worse to me is the talent that was still on the table. Jordan Weal, Kirill Kabanov, Stan Galiev, Teemu Pulkkinen were ALL still there and had elite level skill. Instead of picking the talent, we picked the passport. It’s almost as if the Oilers were scared to pick players that weren’t committed to the CHL for the next year. It’s a good developmental league yes, but to go into the draft with the mantra that you only want CHLers is a bit shortsighted.

Then I start to get into the stats about the player, and start to like Martindale a little bit. I see that he’s 6’3” and a centerman, and I start to work myself out of my doldrums. Then, I see his scouting report and cringe. Lazy? Lacksadasical? Consistency issues? Fuck. That’s not the kind of scouting report I want to see in a prospect, especially one taken in with the first 100 picks. It’s the biggest pet peeve I’ve got when it comes to addressing prospects. If you can’t be bothered to show up every night, why should I bother to write about you?

Round 4: Jeremie Blain

I really didn’t know much about him, but I like what we got here. A shining light on a bad, bad team He’s going back the Titan this year, hopefully with a better goalie (fellow Oilers prospect Olivier Roy) to play with. If he can continue to develop his offensive talents to go along with his size he could be a viable option to round out the bottom pairing on an NHL team. There was still some good talent left on the draft board in my opinion (Pulkkinen was STILL there!) but the Oilers stuck to their draft mantra of size, size, size. They found a pretty good defenseman with their necessary size quotient.

Round 5: Tyler Bunz

Another screwy pick to me. I get that the Oilers have a Pierre Macguire-sized hardon for the WHL at this point, but we’re getting a little ridiculous. Why bother burning a pick on a goalie whose projections are that of an NHL back-up when we’ve already got two of those playing for the NHL club? I don’t subscribe to the “drafting goalies is witchcraft” phenomena sweeping many blogs, but you have to pick your spots carefully. I would have drafted Jack Campbell in the Top-10, possibly even Top-5 this year because he was just that good. But past Campbell and possibly Pickard, I didn’t see another goalie that had the makings of a potential NHL starter. Again, another big body with decent stats, but the technical scouts weren’t fans. He can’t make up for his shortcomings with size like JDD/DD are able to, nor does have the quickness or agility that Olivier Roy possesses. It’s a head-scratcher.

Round 6: Brandon Davidson, Drew Czerwonka

Davidson’s a nice feel-good story, but is coming from an absolutely dreadful team in Regina. That Jordan Eberle and Jordan Weal managed to score points playing with absolutely no help was no short of shocking. I’d like to see him traded to a real WHL team to see what he could do there, as I think his stat line is influenced by increased ice-time. He’s likely a bottom-pairing defenseman at best bet, but I could be proven wrong.

Drew (Willy) Czerwonka is a goon, plain and simple. We all knew the Oilers were going to pick one eventually, but at least this time they did us the courtesy of not wasting a high pick on him. He’s a pugilist trying to become a better all-around player, and will likely have an upside similar to the recently re-signed Steve MacIntyre.

Round 7: Kristians Pelss, Kellen Jones

Who?

Exactly. We drafted a Latvian for chrissakes. And even if he’s the Latvian Wayne Gretzky, what exactly could we expect from this pick? Now I’m not saying Latvia’s incapable of producing NHL talent, as Arters Irbe was one of my favourite goalies growing up (but really only for the name and goofy helmet), but this is a downright weird pick. I’m sure the only reason he was taken in the CHL draft is because the Oilers’ owned Oil Kings saw fit to take him. That’s the beauty of owning your own junior-aged hockey team, you can put any euro you want on it. I honestly can’t project what kind of player this Pelss is going to be, because the Latvian hockey pool hasn’t produced the talent to compare him to.

Kellen Jones may be the only 2010 draft pick to not play Major Junior hockey, and that just doesn’t sit well with me but I’ll try to not let it influence my writing on him. In actuality It’ll probably increase the amount of words spent on him in the long run because I really do like the NCAA pipeline for producing talent, but more on that at a later day. Jones is a small-fry and an overager, so it’s unlikely to expect anything more than a depth player here unfortunately.

------------

So there you have it. Not the greatest draft in my opinion, but does have the potential to be one of the Oilers’ best in recent years. I’d like to point out the draft expectations of the Detroit Red Wings here when they say that if you can get two prospects to pan out per draft you’re doing a good job. Well the Oilers have a lot of bullets from the 2010 draft to make it work. Hall’s a sure bet, all that’s needed for a successful draft is one of the other ten players to make it. The best bets are on the three second rounders, and I like what I see in Pitlick and Marincin to cover their respective bets. The Oilers brass is counting on a healthy season from Hamilton and are praying to the Hockey Gods that Martindale’s light turns on.

Organizational depth chart - Pre-draft edition

2010-06-24T11:46:00.003-05:00

Before the NHL draft gets underway tomorrow, I thought It’d be a fun exercise to list the Oilers’ prospects depth charts to try and find areas that need the most help. Addressing the Best Player Available format is all fine and dandy in a perfect world but communism was marketed that way too, and look what it’s done for Russian hockey talent. In reality, the Oilers are only going to be drafting BPA with their first pick, and will then look at addressing organizational needs that stock their cupboards accordingly. Using my definition of a prospect from an earlier post (http://bubbling-under.blogspot.com/2010/06/graduation.html), I’ve generated an organizational prospect depth chart that details our pre-draft areas of strength and need. Note: I didn’t include this year’s college signings such as Blair Riley because I’m unsure if they are Oilers property or Springfield’s guys. If someone could find a source that confirms them as Oilers, I’d appreciate it.

Center
Riley Nash, Anton Lander, Chris VandeVelde, Milan Kytnar, Robby Dee

This is an area of weakness for the Oilers organization. While Nash and Lander may top out as number 2 centers if the stars align, we’re looking at three number 3-4 centers (VandeVelde included here) and two center prospects that, if they make the NHL will be considered unlikely successes. The top three men on this list all possess a wide array of talents but are masters of none, especially high-end offense. The system lacks a true number 1 center prospect and has for a while (recently graduated Sam Gagner looks more like an elite number 2 than a 1st liner). There’s a prospect of such ilk at the top of some draft boards, but I don’t think he’ll be wearing the Copper and Blue.

Center should be a position where our scouting staff addresses with a few picks this year. I’d like to see our second rounders used to try and address the center depth chart. It’s unlikely we’ll get that first-line calibre center, but depth here is sorely needed.

Wing
Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, Jordan Eberle, Linus Omark, Teemu Hartikainen, Toni Rajala, Philippe Cornet, Cameron Abney, Alex Bumagin, William Quist

The strength of the prospect pipeline comes down the wings. There are both high-end offensive talents and grinder-types present in effective numbers for years to come. MPS and Eberle are both top-flight talents with Omark not far off that level. Paajarvi’s speed is a serious weapon coming down the wing, having the ability to back defenders off him and opening up space for his linemates. Eberle is one of the shiftiest players I’ve seen once he gets into the offensive zone. He really blends into the background and is forgotten until the puck gets to his stick, usually in a dangerous scoring area. Omark’s puck-skills are off the charts and has been able to put up consistent scoring numbers playing against men in two different and high-quality Euro leagues despite his small stature. All three have legitimate shots at being top-6 wingers for the Oilers in the near future. Toni Rajala is coming off a productive season where he held down a top-6 winger role for a very talented Brandon Wheat Kings team the entire season while adjusting to the North American style of hockey.

The list of foot soldiers is a promising one too. Led by Hartikainen who has an outside chance at seeing top-6 duty, the bottom-6 wingers feature players willing to get their hands dirty. Hartikainen has had great success in the Finnish SM-Liiga, which is known for being the closest thing to North American hockey stylistically. He’s a big body with adequate skating and is willing to work hard to embrace the defensive side of hockey. Philippe Cornet was a big scorer in junior hockey, but is unlikely to be filling that role at the next level. He’ll have to look up to current Oiler farmhand Liam Reddox for inspiration if he is to make the NHL someday. Cornet possesses that grit and sandpaper that is necessary for 3-4 line players to be effective, but his small stature might be a hindrance. Tough guy Cameron Abney is not a favourite of mine, but I can’t downplay his pugilistic prowess. There’s no doubt that if he makes the NHL it won’t be for his offensive instincts. Like Zach Stortini before him, he’ll need to become a better-rounded player if he’s to be seen as anything more than the token tough guy.

The prospect pool also includes Alex Bumagin and William Quist, but my mom always taught me that if I didn’t have anything nice to say, to shut my gob. Nuff Said.

This is a position of strength for the organization moving forward and it’s only going to get stronger with our first overall selection this year. The addition of Hall (it’s not 100% sure yet, but I’ll be surprised if Seguin’s selected) provides the club with two top-line Left Wing prospects. It’s an interesting place to have such talent but I’m not about to look a gift horse in the mouth. Unless the scouting staff is very high on another winger or a highly ranked prospect finds himself sliding down the draft board I doubt that another winger will be selected this year.

Defense
Jeff Petry, Alex Plante, Taylor Chorney, Johan Motin, Troy Hesketh, Kyle Bigos, Jordan Bendfeld

The defensive pipeline at this point is filled with more potential than product, and I’m not sure there’s a lot of promising talent here. If we blue-sky for a moment, Petry, Plante and Chorney could all become Top-4 defenders one day, but they all still have a long way to go to reach that potential.

Realistically, there are a lot of 3rd pairing defenders here as everyone not named Petry has a significant hole in their game. It’s like the characters from the Wizard of Oz here. Plante has no skating, Chorney has no size, Motin has no offense, Hesketh has no able-body, Bigos has no brain, Bendfeld has no chance. The fortunate thing though is that most of our blueline prospects are still young, there’s room and time to improve their game.

Petry remains the prospect most likely to fill a Top-4 role with the big club. His combination of size, aggressive play and offensive instincts make him an ideal defender for the new NHL. He starts his professional career this year after a less-than-memorable amateur tryout last year. I’m hoping that he’s got more room to grow and improve than his Taylor Chorney-like +/- indicated.

This is an area that the Oilers need to improve. Maybe not as much as their center pipeline, but the club is lacking in Top-4 prospects. I’m hopeful that current Oilers Ryan Whitney, Tom Gilbert and Ladislav Smid will continue to be around and effective Top-4 defenders for a long time. It’ll help keep the pressure off the organizational defence pool until this area can be properly addressed.

Goal
Olivier Roy, Andrew Perugini, Bryan Pitton

Goaltending is a difficult area to predict, and it’s often a waste of precious draft selections to pick a goalie. We’re seeing that demonstrated by the Oilers in the last few years. There have been few selections used on goaltenders, and the results are a very thin prospect depth chart between the pipes.

Olivier Roy is the best of the bunch and still has one year of junior hockey eligibility remaining. He was recently traded a couple of times, eventually settling with the Acadie-Bathurst Titan where he will likely resume his duties as starting goaltender. He’s been a starter in the QMJHL since he was 16 and has seen a lot of puck over his career. After a slow start to the recently completed season his numbers began to steadily improve. He’s a goalie that’s been on the radar of Hockey Canada for ages now and has a good chance at making the U-20 squad this year unless his development takes a big leap backwards. He’s a small but highly agile goaltender with solid angles and reflexes. It’s very hard to project goalies a few years down the road, but he’s never seemed like the type who will be an NHL starter unless he takes the journeyman road and eventually lands on his feet somewhere.

The rest of the depth chart leaves prospect junkies wanting. There is no tender in the system that is anywhere close to pushing Roy for the number one spot. Perugini and Pitton have both struggled at the AHL level and while Pitton was able to get a few call-ups to the big club this year, it was merely to serve as Deslauriers’ back-up while Devan Dubnyk was getting some playing time in down on the farm to keep him fresh. Both Perugini and Pitton are long-shots to ever see NHL playing time, barring injuries from goalies higher up the Oilers’ ladder.

Goaltending is an area of weakness for the Oilers organization, but unless Jack Campbell falls to the second round (highly unlikely, he’s the best goalie to come around since Carey Price) there’s no reason to be spending a draft pick on a goalie this year in my opinion. The best bet is to follow in Brian Burke’s footsteps and address the goaltending depth chart by signing undrafted free agents from Europe or the US college ranks.

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Taking the above information into account, I think Stu MacGregor and his staff would do well to load up on centers and defensemen this year. With the likely selection of Taylor Hall with the first overall pick, it’s unlikely we’ll get our top-ranked center prospect this year. There is however a chance at obtaining a couple of Top-4 calibre defensive prospects with our two second-round selections if the scouts are high on certain players. I’ve previously identified a some centers and defensemen of interest for our second pick (#31 overall), and believe that either Charlie Coyle or Alex Petrovic should be targeted at that point. After that, all bets are off.

With any luck, the organizational prospect depth chart will look a lot different and well-rounded when I look to analyze this again in about a month’s time. Come Saturday night we’ll know where the organization is headed and barring trades, I’ll have 9 new young men to talk about in the coming months.

Prospects of Interest (2nd round): Alex Petrovic

2010-06-20T11:46:00.003-05:00

Today’s prospect, shown here (#77) being filled in by Dylan McIlrath, is a hard-hitting defenseman from the Dub who has seen his stock drop considerably from where he was one season ago.

Alex Petrovic, an Edmonton native playing for Red Deer is a 6’4” body breaking machine with underrated offensive skills. He’s still among the most feared defenders in the WHL even though he had his clock cleaned by fellow 2010 draft-eligible prospect Dylan McIlrath at this year’s Top Prospects game. Some questioned his abilities after that quick bout, but as THN magazine puts it:

“Some scouts point to the fact Petrovic was beaten in a fight by Dylan McIlrath in the prospects game as the negative turning point. It shouldn’t have been, because McIlrath beats up pretty much everyone he fights.”

Here’s the youtube clip of the fight. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nmo1jlN4VHg

I think it’s important to present this because even though Petrovic gets rag-dolled around, it shows the kid’s got balls. He wanted to test himself against the best on what is probably one of the biggest prospect showcases. Full credit to him.

The Rankings:
THN: 24
ISS: Not Rated
CSB: 29

Known more as a defence-first blueliner, Petrovic saw his point totals more than double this season (from 13 to 27) and his goal totals sky-rocket from one last year to eight this season, all while playing in nine fewer games. His offensive output brings to mind the scouting report of Alex Plante from 2007, which said in no specific words that this offense wouldn’t likely translate well to the NHL game. It’s fair then to expect any offense from Petrovic at the NHL level to be a welcome bonus to his skillset.

Already standing 6’4” and weighing in at 193 pounds, Petrovic will be an intimidating force on someone’s blueline once he completely fills out. Gaining another 15-20 pounds on his large frame would allow for even more damage from his already physical brand of hockey. He’s not just hitting people because he’s bigger and can do some damage, he’s hitting people because he likes it. An interview from McKeen’s hockey (http://mckeenshockey.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1078205) suggests we might have a new Scott Stevens on our hands here:

“My strength I believe, is my physical play with my body checks”

He also believes the things he can do with his long reach is a strength to his game, both in breaking up scoring chances and creating a good first pass out of his defensive zone. The coaching staff in Red Deer has had him working on his defensive game, and Alex seems to have bought into the system well. He’s taking care of his own end first but would also like to develop a quick offensive transition to his game, being able to quickly join the rush after a turnover.

Mike Remmerde, a well known and respected blogger/reporter has a slightly more glass-half-empty view on Petrovic. He lists his skating as a positive for a kid his size, but is quick to point out defensive lapses in the defensive zone:

“This guy’s reactions in the defensive zone just flat out confuse me. I just can’t understand how a guy with this kind of agility gets beat so often in his own end.”

I’m not too worried about these reported defensive liabilities because with proper coaching they can be eliminated. Let the kid make mistakes now and learn from them, it’s better to have these weaknesses exposed early on so they can be monitored and corrected at the junior level.

The Oilers organization has been high on these big, physical players at the last couple of drafts. They’ve taken hard-nosed defenders early in the past in Peckham (2006), Plante (2007), Motin (2008) and the forward Abney (2009) with some success. The blueline pipeline is thin as it stands right now with, to my knowledge, not a single junior aged defenseman in the system. It’s sure to be a lean couple of years without some changes in draft tendencies this year.

Petrovic fits the Oilers needs of defenders and improving team toughness, and that’s why I can see him being selected with the 31st pick. While there may be a couple higher ranked forwards left on the draft board, Petrovic could be a target for an early second-round selection based on organizational need. I may not agree with picking for position, but Petrovic is someone I’d consider making an exception for. Early projections and mock-drafts had him pegged as a sure first-rounder, Petrovic remains a potential Top-4 shutdown defender.

Prospects of interest (2nd Round): Jason Zucker

2010-06-18T18:57:00.002-05:00

Today’s prospect has a chance at being the first Las Vegas born/trained player to set foot in the NHL.

Jason Zucker is a 5’11” winger from the US NTDP who is not expected to be a premier scorer at the next level, he’s already made the commitment to defensive hockey while using his excellent skating abilities to be an effective forechecker and penalty-killer. Said one scout interviewed in THN’s draft preview:

“Because of his speed, he gets chances, but can’t do it [score] naturally. I see him as a pently-killer, shutdown guy who might get 10 goals”

The Rankings:
THN: 54
ISS: 30
CSB: 51NA

Zucker has been playing with the US National Team for the past two years with varying degrees of offensive success. His totals last year (22GP 11-7-18) suggest there is some offensive talent there. He seems like more of a shooter than a playmaker. He got that opportunity to be a premier scorer at the most recent U-20 WJC’s, where he was lining up with offensive stalwarts in Jordan Schroeder and Ryan Bourque. His two goals contributed to Team USA’s gold-medal winning performance. Said Zucker when asked how he took to this role (http://mckeenshockey.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1068190):

“I was there to try and help them [Schroeder and Bourque] out and help the team win and I thought I played a really good tournament.”

And “play a good tournament” he surely did, at least to my eyes. Getting to watch the Americans at the most recent tournament, I was very surprised by the play of this un-heralded draft-eligible talent. His speed and constant forecheck was a pain in the Canadians’ side throughout the tournament. It wasn’t the big-name talent that wowed me at the WJCs this year. The play of foot soldiers like Zucker and Jerry D’Amigo set the tone of a new look for the Americans. For the first time in forever, they brought a team to an International tournament, not just a smattering of individuals. But I digress...

Zucker seems to be a player in constant need to improve his game. In an interview with McKeen’s, when asked about areas he can improve upon, he ticks off a list longer than a 7-year old’s Christmas wishlist:

“I think I need to work on quite a bit of things. Everybody can work on things to get better. I think I can work on my shooting, my passing, my skating, offensive zone, defensive coverage. Every bit of my game, I can work on...in order to play at the level, you have to be a complete player”.

While some may look at his self-scouting report and see a flawed player, I tend to look at him with a positive eye. Anyone can say they’d like to get better, but it takes a different kind of person to self-evaluate to the point Jason has. He knows what he needs to go do, and proper coaching can adapt his flaws into an effective player.

Zucker is committed to Denver University, but seems like he might be willing to play major junior if the shoe fits. His rights are owned by Seattle of the Western Hockey League.

Jason Zucker would be a good fit for the Oilers organization because he fits the mold of the role players every successful team seems to have in spades. His scouting reports read like those of a Draper/Maltby type player. Hard forechecker, solid PKer with the ability to provide a little offense if thrust into that role. He’d take maybe a little longer to develop than some of the more high-end prospects, but with a massive influx of talent from the prospect ranks in the near future, the Oilers can afford to be patient with the Nevada native. He doesn’t quite have the talent for me to consider taking him with the 31st overall selection, but he’d be a feather in the scouting department’s cap at #48.

Prospects of interest (2nd Round): Quinton Howden

2010-06-17T19:12:00.002-05:00

There’s a good chance today’s prospect may not in fact make it out of the second round. If fortune smiles on the Oilers, here’s hoping Stu MacGregor is sprinting up to the draft podium to open the second day of this year’s NHL draft to draft winger Quinton Howden, the first overall pick from the WHL’s 2007 bantam draft. He’s a big boy at 6’3” 183 and still has room to fill out his impressive frame in two more seasons with the Dub’s Moose Jaw Warriors.

The rankings:
THN: 23
ISS: 16
CSB: 19NA

I’ll be blunt here, I really do have a vested interest in watching this kid develop. He grew up half an hour from me, in the same hometown (and likely through the same bantam programs) as a cousin of mine. I’d love nothing more than to see a local talent putting on the Oildrop in a couple years time. I’ll do my best not to go all Pierre McGuire... but I promise nothing.

Coming off the potentially overbearing pressure that comes with being a high bantam draft pick (Philippe Cornet apparently couldn’t handle it), he struggled in his rookie season with the Warriors, putting up 30 points in 62 games. His transition from year one this year is quite impressive. He more than doubled his goal totals (from 13 to 28) while putting up exactly one point per game (28-37-65). It’s still not a huge offensive number, but he led his team in scoring as a 17-year old (the next four highest scorers were 19 or older). That speaks both to the maturity of the player, and the lack of scoring surrounding Howden. Expect his point totals to continue rising next year, if he’s not playing NHL hockey somewhere.

As a player, he’s been known to wear a lot of hats. While playing for his club team, he’s their go-to scorer. Internationally, he’s more likely to be a foot soldier and energy-type player. A very complete player in all three zones is what you’re going to get out of Howden as a 17-year old. At this point in most careers of NHL prospects, they have the back-checking abilities as Rob Schremp. Given his two-way abilities, it’s hard to imagine he’d have slipped past the Devils if they had retained their first round pick (Thanks, Ilya!).

One thing that may allow him to slip to #31 is his lack of one true talent. He’s a big body, but no scouting report I’ve read suggests he’s anything more than an average skater with moderate hockey sense, and lacks the ability to use his 6’3” frame to clear opponents out of his way. He’s one of the safest bets to make the NHL one day, but in no way is he a special talent at this point.

I think he’d be a perfect fit on the Oilers in a few years. He’s a big body who can score and has at least thought about the defensive side of hockey. He’d be a guy you could slot anywhere in your line-up and have success. If you want a big body to create space for Sam Gagner/Andrew Cogliano, throw him into the top-6 and tell him to go to the net. If you want a checking line with Shawn Horcoff, you know he’s not going to willingly give up goals against. To me, I see a lot of the kinds of things we’re seeing now in Dustin Penner. It’s kind of early to project him to our highest paid winger, but dammit he looks like a player to me. He's got all that talent, with a big body, a good home-grown Canadian kid, monster, strong...muscular...legs....

Sorry. I should stop now.

Prospects of interest (2nd Round): Charlie Coyle

2010-06-15T13:37:00.002-05:00

The next installment of Bubbling Under's prospects of interest segment looks at a big versatile forward who has likely spent a few family dinners across the table from former NHLer Tony Amonte.

Charlie Coyle is a 6'2" 202lb right-handed forward committed to Boston University next year.

The rankings:

THN: 33
ISS: 27
CSB: 24NA

Coyle is primarily a center, but some have suggested he'll be more effective as a winger (listed as RW) at higher levels. His ability to muscle smaller players off the puck along the boards is a strength, writes Redline Report's Kyle Woodlief (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2010-06-01-forward-prospects_N.htm). He's a hard-working player who will be responsible in both ends of the ice.

He's a self-described weight room junkie, which was likely the cause of his stellar performances at the recent NHL draft combine, remarks The Terrier Hockey Fan Blog (http://terrierhockey.blogspot.com/2010/06/bourque-named-mvp-as-hershey-repeats.html). The Oilers have a couple of NHLers who themselves are fitness freaks, with varying degrees of on-ice success (think Shawn Horcoff versus Ethan Moreau here), so I'm unsure if this is necessarily a positive for Coyle. He could go to BU and add another 15-20 pounds to his frame, which might make him very tough to handle coming down the wing in about 4 years.

His offensive upside may not be enough to warrant a top-six spot on an NHL team, but like Riley Nash in the 2007 draft he's going to be an NHLer once he leaves school. More of a playmaker type than a scorer, he uses his teammates well and is creative with his puckhandling, writes Woodlief. He's one of the safest bets in this year's draft. Central Scouting compares him to former NHLer Bob Sweeney (639 NHL games; best offensive season 80GP 15-33-48 115PIM). Not exactly a flashy player, but one of those character bottom-6 guys every successful team employs.

Important to note that Edmonton was one of his scheduled interviews during the combine and are among the 23 teams to interview him (http://www.hockeyjournal.com/news/2010/05/25_coylelooking.php). Edmonton appears to either have special interest in the player, or Coyle really has a thing for cup winners. Said Coyle on day two of the combine:

Monday night when we were eating, I saw Kevin Lowe walk in and knew who he was right away. Tuesday, when I went to Edmonton it was kind of special to meet him.

It looks like Coyle is getting a lot of attention from the scouting departments. Whether it's because he's high on everyone's draft boards or that he's an unknown quantity is hard to determine. Going to an unknown Junior A program at South Shore leads me to believe scouts are still trying to get a read on him.

I think he'd be a good fit for the Oilers prospect pool in much the same way Chris VandeVelde was talked about. With our first round selection providing the scoring, we'll still need guys able to play a strong two-way game four or five years down the road. Barring a change of playing style while at BU, we're not looking at a home-run acquisition from Coyle out of the #31 slot. Just a solid NHL prospect with a high percentage of playing in the NHL one day.

Prospects of interest (2nd Round): Teemu Pulkkinen

2010-06-14T15:13:00.004-05:00

I've been meaning to really keep up on my prospects. Honest I have. But a weekend ultimate (and drinking) tournament takes a lot out of you. To those who read my blog (I'm sure there's a couple of you out there) and haven't taken a perusal of the other offers from the Oilogosphere, get on it. The boys at C&B have looked at a trio of prospects so far in greater detail than I could, so I'll avoid discussing Martin Marincin (A Slovak defenseman who always draws unfavourable comparisons to Zdeno Chara due only to his hulking size), Tom Kuhnhackl (whose name includes two dots over the u, can you tell I don't know much about him?) and most recently Viktor Svedberg. Over at Lowetide, he's taken control of the Dylan McIlrath booster club with such fervor that Dylan must be friends with LT's son, Marc-Antoine Pouliot. There's some great stuff out there, I'm only scratching the surface.

Continuing my list of potential second-rounders available to the Oilers is a goal-scoring forward who has seen his stock slide considerably since last year.

Teemu Pulkkinen is a 5'11" winger from the Jokerit system in Finland, producer of (in my opinion) the greatest Finnish talent the NHL has ever seen.

The rankings:
THN: 50
ISS: 53
CSB: 17 Euro

His stats aren't much to look at (12GP 1-2-3) and he didn't play in this year's U-20 tournament like fellow draft-eligible Finn Mikael Granlund, but it is important to note that like Granlund (and our two Swede prospects from 2009), he's already playing against men. Stiff competition at 17 years of age (he's a January birthday) makes me want to disregard the low production as a result of not playing often, or possibly with Jani Rita. He's put up points in the past against players his own age. His performance at the most recent U-18s where he was the top forward (6GP 10-5-15), at last year's U-18 tournament (6GP 7-6-13) and the year previous on Jokerit's junior team (32GP 36-24-60) so I find it hard to debate his offensive skill.

There are questions about his commitment to the physical brand of hockey - he's being called a perimeter player who has only average footspeed according to THN's draft preview. Others have not exactly agreed with his lack of speed, as thehockeywriters are absolutely glowing about his speed and agility (http://thehockeywriters.com/prospect-profile-teemu-pulkkinen-jokerit-helsinki-sm-liiga/). The positives seem more plentiful and noteworthy. The phrases "pure sniper" and "one-shot scorer" absolutely litter Pulkkinen's scouting reports. He's seen as a good complimentary player with a lightning-quick release, demonstrated in this youtube clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTr9Ep3goMw&feature=related He's number 92 collecting what some might see as a garbage goal. I see it as him finding a high percentage area of the offensive zone much the same way John Tavares does.

One sore spot (literally) is his injury history. I haven't heard of an underage player who has had such tough luck since the aforementioned Pouliot. He's been limited to just 16 SM-Liiga games the past two years due to foot issues of one kind or another.

The Oilers have had no issues going to Europe in the last couple of years. They've found some great prospects in all areas of the draft. Sweden is represented three times in the last two drafts (Motin, Paajarvi, Lander) and a selection of Pulkkinen would make three Fins in the last three years (Hartikainen, Rajala). Pulkkinen fits the mold of a skill forward that could add offense to a prospect pool that is rather short on game-changing skill level. He was one of THN's top-10 2010 prospects last year and with the limited number of games he's played so far seems to me to have a higher ceiling than most prospects.

Prospects of interest (2nd round): Jon Merrill

2010-06-09T15:54:00.003-05:00

Over the next few weeks leading up to the 2010 NHL entry draft, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at the prospects who could feasibly be available for the Oilers second round picks. The amount of literature available on Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin is staggering and well worth reading, but they represent a miniscule fraction of the talent available in this year’s draft. Our selection at #31 represents a high likelihood of acquiring an NHL-level talent just outside the first round. There are many options available, and due to drafting trends of other teams some may not be available when the Oilers make their second round selection.

We start today with THN’s 31st ranked prospect, Jon Merrill.

2009-10 stats: NTDP 22gp 1-8-9 12PIM (http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=120966)

Other assorted rankings:

ISS – 21
Central Scouting – 21
TSN’s MacKenzie’s list (January) – HM
North American Central Scouting (Sept 2009) - 11

Born Feburary 3, 1992 in the USA, Merill is a 6’3” 198lb left-handed defenseman from the American NTDP known for his smooth skating abilities with good passing ability. He comes from a team deep in large puck-movers (Stephen Johns, Justin Faulk, Jarred Tinordi), but is seen as having the highest ceiling of all of them aside from the higher ranked Derek Forbort. Says a scout from THN’s draft preview:

"He potentially has a good upside with his skill level...He’s a big defenseman who moves the puck well, kind of that Gormley, Forbort kind of player”.

Merrill was bumped up from the U-17 team to the U-18 team last season for 19 games, and commented that it really helped his development as a top prospect. In an interview with McKeens (http://mckeenshockey.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1076474):

“It was a great experience. I was really honoured to be able to play up last year...The experience was unbelievable and I think it helped a lot. We had a bunch, like five of our guys from my age group were up on that team last year, so we’re hoping to bring that experience we had last year back to the team this year."

Already committed to the University of Michigan for next season since he was fourteen (the youngest to ever commit to an NCAA program), he has no doubts where he’s going to be playing next year.

“I think for me, it’s better to go to school, and that’s just what I’ve always wanted to do. I’m 100 percent committed there”.

Merrill ran into some trouble this year when he was suspended from the team for violating team policy (http://thepipelineshow.blogspot.com/2010/01/3-suspended-1-quits-us-under-18-team.html). His indiscretions seem to be of little concern however, as the backlash from the suspension has been all but forgotten.

When asked about his strengths and weaknesses, Merrill commented that his strength has improved a lot over the last two seasons, and that video sessions with his coaches have helped improve his positional play. He also said that he’s working on improving his offensive game, most notably his shot.

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I think Merrill would be a solid pick-up for the Oilers prospect system. His game tailors well to the new style of NHL defender. He’s got a lot of similarities to current Oiler Tom Gilbert and you can’t have enough big, smooth skating defensemen in the system.

There is doubt he’ll be available when the 31st overall pick comes up. The Oilers may have to trade up into the mid-20s if they believe he is a player of interest.

Tyler who?

2010-06-06T22:39:00.002-05:00

I’ve been going through a lot of prospect literature over the last two weeks. Through the internet and print magazines like The Hockey News there’s enough to distract me to ridiculous levels. I took a break one day from reading about the next first rounders and decided to take a look at who were the steals of last year’s (2009) entry draft. The Oilers got absolute gems in Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, Anton Lander, Toni Rajala and Olivier Roy, three of whom it could be considered they were real value picks because of where we obtained them in the draft.

MPS – 10th overall. THN rank: 7
Lander – 40th overall. THN rank: 50
Rajala – 101st overall. THN rank: 49
Roy – 133rd overall. THN rank: 38

Now, THN isn’t the be all and end all list of ranking prospects but I think it’s safe to say these four are far from the reach picks some Oiler fans are accustomed to. The results are promising too, with MPS and Rajala already signed to entry-level contracts, Lander doing nothing to diminish his billing as a strong defensive forward and team leader, and Roy regaining his form after a hard first month of the season.

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Reading farther into THN’s 2009 draft preview brought me again to their future watch on the top prospects for the 2010 draft. To me, an important measuring stick for prospects is their ability to maintain billing as top prospects over multiple years. To be perfectly frank I stay as far away from fast-rising prospects as I can, preferring to view their “big season” without rose-coloured glasses. I’ve never been a believer that one stand-out season means that continued positive growth is expected. There are too many other factors that could be at play over the course of a single season to say with any confidence that player X will continue to develop exponentially. I much prefer a prospect who has achieved over multiple seasons, leaving less doubt in analyzing their abilities.

And so, going back to the 2009 draft preview’s analysis of the 2010 class, we’re given the following Top-10 players to watch out for (2010 draft ranking in brackets):

1(1): Taylor Hall – A complete player who understands the game
2(38): Kirill Kabanov – Classic Russian winger, very good technically
3(7): Brandon Gormley – Knows what his options are when the puck is on his stick
4(14): Vladimir Tarasenko – A dynamic player, explodes around the puck
5(3): Cam Fowler – Excellent skater, pivots well
6(5): Erik Gudbranson – A special player, great mobility
7(10): Mikael Granlund – Doesn’t need a lot of space to make plays
8(20): John McFarland – A character guy, will do anything to win
9(50): Teemu Pulkkinen – Plays physical and moves well in open ice
10(40): Tyler Toffoli – Skill and confidance, he’s not afraid

Notice a player missing? I certainly did.

At this point last year, there was very little known about Tyler Seguin, the dynamic and complete centerman from Plymouth. Someone who is now described as “the best playmaker in the draft” wasn’t even on the radar last year.

Everyone’s welcome to their opinions, but I found this a little disturbing. I knew he had come on very strong this year to challenge for the top spot, but from outside last year’s Top-10? That’s very concerning, IMO, because it means he falls victim to that fast-riser stigma I described earlier. Will his game continue to grow after this season? Is this season his perfect storm? How much of his growth this year was increased playing time and sheer luck? Is he playing Rob Schremp kind of minutes?

We can’t say these things about Taylor Hall’s game. He’s been a known commodity for years now. He hasn’t exactly increased his point totals year in and year out but we know he’s consistently putting up numbers with a very good team. This tells me a couple things; he’s establishing his level of play and he’s not getting 30 minutes of ice-time per game (to me, a very real concern about Tyler Seguin’s Plymouth Whaler days).

Like I said, your opinion will likely vary from mine, but I’d be staying away from the Tyler Seguins (and Brett Connollys) of this year’s draft. Give me consistency over big splashes when it comes to my prospects.

Graduation

2010-06-01T23:31:00.003-05:00

I graduated today.

Five years of pain and torture can do amazing things to a man. It makes you angry, depressed, elated, shocked, and at times, contemplate career changes. It also causes you to drink large quantities of alcohol. But then again, so has watching the Edmonton Oilers these past five years.

I arrived at University, drafted you could call it, straight out of high school. I was a boy of 18 who thought he knew exactly what he wanted from life and how to achieve it. It took about two hours that first day of classes that I realized I was in over my head if I thought this was going to be a cake walk. My first course that day, Introduction to University 1, told me to immediately expect a 10% drop in my average from my high school honour roll list marks. I was told it would be expected of me to study for two hours for every hour I attended lectures. I was also told that every instructor marks differently from everyone else just to keep us on our toes.

Shit.

I emerged from my first class visibly shaken. This wasn’t going to be as easy as I thought it would. And my first two years proved that very well. I was stuck taking “required” courses that prepared me for nothing by instructors who had long ago lost their passion for teaching. I was stuck going nowhere with very little direction at the time and at a couple points had to sit down and re-evaluate my being at University.

Then, as if someone in the department had understood they were about to lose another talented mind, opportunity presented itself. Maybe I wasn’t going to be that first-line student who could get everything done perfectly and come up with new and exciting research ideas all on my own. But to be behind the scenes doing yeoman’s work for a while to get my bearings and learn my trade hands-on from seasoned professionals? Well that’s right up my alley. So instead of being able to make that seamless transition to the big-time as a 20-year old, I was able to ply my trades as a Co-op student, learning alongside grizzled veterans who knew their time was winding to an end, but could still contribute to the next generation of lab techs and energy-type employees. By working for a couple semesters instead of being thrown into the deep end in classes, I was able to develop at my own pace.

When I got back to University for the fall term after 8 months away from school and entering my 4th year of development I was a better student having learned what I would need to succeed at this level. I took the lessons of time management and proper presentation of scientific date and applied them to my coursework. The results began to show that I had learned something. My grades started improving, confidence skyrocketed, and my hard work started paying off. Finally I was the one the instructors were praising for my hard work and effort. It took me five years from 18 years of age to achieve what I set out to accomplish. I have graduated from the prospect ranks of my career.

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Graduation of prospects is sometimes a hotly contested debate between the sporting community. At what point can we start to address errors in a player’s game as a pre-existing condition and not growing pains? Many have tried to find the perfect formula for measuring a player’s graduation from prospect to NHL player, and many have failed. It is likely that I will fail to win over many readers with my criteria to define a prospect from a player as well, but that’s for you to decide. I have my opinions about who should be considered a prospect, and I’ll defend them.

The most widely accepted notion that defines a prospect is that he remains a prospect until he’s played a certain amount of games in the NHL. Hockeysfuture, a widely read site uses the 75-game plateau to define prospect status. Lowetide, who writes some of the best Oilers-related articles anywhere uses 50 games before you graduate as a prospect (on most occasions). It’s a start, but I feel that a prospect at the age of 18’s first season or so should not be weighted as equally as a 22-year old prospect who has played approximately 100 games of minor-pro hockey, either at the AHL level or over in the many European elite leagues. As some would suggest, the sample size of the 18-year old is too small to make an adequate assessment of his abilities, and I agree with that.

The boys over at Copper and Blue have recently come up with some new prospect criteria that I find to be more reliable than the “play this many games and you’re no longer a prospect” mentality. Instead of ranking “prospects” they decided to rank the most important players in the organization under the age of 25. A pretty good idea, but still leaves too much leeway for me. I don’t consider a player like Liam Reddox to be a prospect, mainly because I think we’ve got a good idea on what kind of NHL player he is. Meaning he is no longer a prospect, but in fact a marginal NHL player.

So, after shooting holes in everyone else’s theories, maybe I should come up with one of my own? Sure. I’ve toyed around with two ideas, and have settled on this.

A young hockey player shall be deemed a prospect until the completion of his entry-level contract. After such time, he will no longer be considered a prospect of the organization, and will graduate.

I’ve come to this conclusion for a couple of reasons. I feel that we the fans should have a clear picture of what a player can and cannot do after (in the majority) a player’s three-year entry level contract is complete. Such contracts are usually signed when a player reaches 20 years of age, two years after his draft. By this time, the organization will have had its hands on a player for five years. There are rare occasions when a player blossoms later than his entry-level contract, but for the most part we have a good idea on what kind of NHL player they will become.

I cite the case of Andrew Cogliano as proof that a prospect needs the full five years of “prospect” status. After his first season, Cogliano had 18 goals playing soft opposition with the best prospects in the Oilers system. Things were looking up, and many were touting him as a top-six forward for the next decade. Fast-forward two years later and he’s hit a wall. Were his first-year numbers the start of an upward curve? No. They were brought back to earth over the next two seasons and show us what Cogliano can be for an NHL team. A second to third line player who will contribute anywhere from 10 to 20 goals per season. Nothing special, but a proven talent after the completion of his entry-level contract.

Now there are some cases where a prospect doesn’t turn pro at 20. We’re going to see two examples of that this off-season. By my prospect grading system Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin will graduate at the age of 21 instead of 23, and players like Chris VandeVelde and Linus Omark will be older than the age of 23 when they are no longer considered prospects. This is okay in my opinion because at the end of their entry-level contracts we will know how they can contribute to an NHL roster. There might still be room to grow for Hall/Seguin as there might still be for Sam Gagner, but let’s delay their prospect status beyond their 19th birthdays to get a good read on them.

It took me five years to become the educated man I am today. If I have my way, our prospects will be the same age and have the same amount of development time until they too are thrown to the wolves.

Oilers combine interviews

2010-05-31T13:59:00.002-05:00

Oilers head scout Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor will be doing this a couple of times on June 26th.

I’d like to take some time today and see if I can’t outline a couple of tendencies we should be expecting at this year’s draft. The Oilers website released a plethora of interviews from Saturday’s draft combine. For the full line-up, here’s the website, please excuse the lack of formatting (I is not internets smart).
http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=530373

The list in and of itself can give us some clues into where the Oilers might be going for their high (first and second, possibly third) round picks. Let’s take a look at who they’ve decided to interview, first sorted by position:

Forwards (15):
Victor Ohman LW 6’1 187 Sweden Div1
Riley Sheehan F 6’2 200 NCAA
Vladimir Tarasenko F 6’0 192 KHL
Tyler Seguin C 6’1 186 OHL
Kirill Kabanov F 6’3 176 QMJHL
Alexander Burmistrov F 6’0 170 OHL
Nick Bjugstad F 6’4 188 USHS
Jordan Weal F 5’9 165 WHL
Taylor Hall F 6’0 185 OHL
John McFarland F 6’0 192 OHL
Nino Niederreiter F 6’2 203 WHL
Emerson Etem F 6’0 194 WHL
Mikael Granlund F 5’10 176 SM-Liiga
Tyler Toffoli RW 6’0 181 OHL
Jeff Skinner C 5’10 182 OHL

Defense (11):
Martin Marincin D 6’4 187 Slovak junior
Troy Rutkowski D 6’1 205 WHL (Edmonton native)
Dylan Mcilrath D 6’5 215 WHL
Matt MacKenzie D 6’2 198 WHL
Brock Beukeboom D 6’1 196 OHL
Brandon Gormley D 6’1 175 QMJHL
Mark Pysyk D 6’2 178 WHL
Jon Merrill D 6’3 205 NTDP
Cam Fowler D 6’2 190 OHL
Mark Alt* D 6’5 *** USHS (NCAA next year)
Jarred Tinordi D 6’4 204 NTDP

Goalie (4):
Cam Lanigan G 6’3 183 WHL
Calvin Pickard G 6’0 202 WHL
Jack Campbell G 6’1 171 NTDP (OHL next year)
Kent Simpson G 6’2 182 WHL (Edmonton native)

Assuming Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin is the first player called to save Steve Tambellini’s bacon, and he’d have to be on some kind of acid trip to screw that up (possibly why we got rid of Denis Grebeshkov?) what can the player types tell us about who we call on day two of the draft?
Stu Macgregor (that magnificent bastard, he) has been calling the shots for two years now, and some tendencies are starting to show.

- Preferences for skill in the first round
- Forward and defence taken with about equal measure (1 goalie, 4 defensemen, 7 forwards taken over two years)
- No fear of drafting from Scandinavia
- The WHL is the preferred target area in Canada

Over the last couple of seasons, the Oilers as an organization have come to be known for a couple of tendencies as well.

- There’s going to be a reach pick somewhere
- If there’s a big hulking defenseman available, the Oilers want him
- There will be a premium placed on size

So, with that in mind, what can this list of players tell us?

Well, if we break down the list a little further to display interview tendencies, we can see that:
- 12 of 15 forwards are 6’0 or over
- They didn’t talk to any defenseman smaller than 6’1
- We’re still looking for the next Sean Burke
- 10 players were interviewed from the WHL, followed by 8 from the OHL

It’s quite an extensive list of interview prospects, but a couple of names jump out at me for the wrong reasons. It should be noted that many of these names were chosen for interview by people riding the short bus (also known as the edmontonoilers.com message boards), but it makes no sense that anyone from the Oilers organization should be interviewing players like Mark Pysyk, Brandon Gormley, Cam Fowler, Jack Campbell, Emerson Etem or Nino Niederreiter as they’re sure to be first round picks, and as such unavailable when the 31st pick comes up.

There are two notable defensemen missing who did not apparently merit interviews. Derek Forbort of the NTDP and Alex Petrovic of the WHL are two defensemen I've got my eye on for the second round, and would have loved to get more information from them on what kind of player they think they could be at the NHL-level. Both are big, heavy hitting defensemen I thought the Oilers would have been more enamored with.

There’s also the curious case of Mark Alt, the American High School Quarterback Defenseman. The website article gives more time and space for the 84th ranked player by ISS than they do for Tyler Seguin. He’s big, he’s a defenseman, and the Oilers are high on him. This sounds exactly like Troy Hesketh/Kyle Bigos of last year’s draft, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him taken with our 3rd round pick.

If a goalie is picked this year, and given the high rankings of the ones they decided to interview it might happen, don’t be surprised if he’s taken with the Nashville pick. Jack Campbell will surely be gone, and the younger Pickard (I used to work with his sister actually) has a chance to be a first round pick. The other two are likely to be available on day two, and since big goalies in the first two rounds seem to be our thing (Deslauriers, Dubnyk), that’s where our “reach” pick might come from.

I’m happy to see the names of Jon Merrill, Tyler Toffoli and Riley Sheehan are in the Oilers scouts minds as well. I’ll be doing some more in-depth posting about these three closer to the draft as they’re among my favourite picks for pick #31 this year.

I'm of the belief they attempt to shore up the blueline with the 31st overall pick, unless one of Campbell or Pickard are still available. I'd prefer Sheehan, but would be happy with Merrill, Tinordi or MacKenzie. Dylan Mcilrath I'm afraid won't make it past the 15th overall pick.

As always, it’s important to stress that the draft is a crapshoot. We’re going to get a franchise player in the first round and after that, we’ll have to place our trust in the same Hockey Gods who keep letting Matt Cooke off with warnings.

Off and running...

2010-05-28T19:58:00.000-05:00

Welcome to my new little corner of the world.

I've always wanted to try my hand at blogging, but have never had the time to devote to writing enough for my standards. However, after recently completing my Undergrad degree thanks to a hard-earned D in Biochemistry I finally feel that I can provide something of relevance to the Oilogosphere.

But I had to ask myself...where's my niche? What can I bring to our corner of the Interweb that isn't already being done by people more insightful, witty, and clever than I? It really was a hard decision because I feel that I have opinions that can be shared, yet will often go unnoticed without a place to my own. I feel that I impose a lot on other bloggers' comments pages which at the same time takes away from their original thoughtful post and makes my musings less effective as they could be.

For inspiration on finding my Oilers niche, I looked first to the blogs I check everyday. Lowetide. Black Dog. Copper and Blue. The gold standards of excellence for any aspiring Oilers blogger. It was in these places I looked for something to compliment their writing, for in these blogs I have found others who share my love for following hockey prospects.

I take more pleasure in watching the development of prospects than watching full grown men earn wealthy paychecks. Once players reach a certain age and have established themselves at the NHL level, they grow less exciting to me. I, for one, would gladly enjoy watching my hometown Manitoba Moose rather than welcome back the Winnipeg Jets for this very reason (but that's a story for another day). It is, and has been for some time, prospects, which pique my hockey interests. Other blogs may touch on prospects, but they will make up the majority of my rants and ravings on this blog.

Thanks for taking the time to come check out my new blog. I hope you enjoy reading about the next Oiler prospects...bubbling under.